Advancements in science, equipment and technology will ...€¦ · lane departure warning and...

58 commercial carrier journal | october 2015

EquipmEnt & tEchnology p. 61 Autonomous trucks and platooning p. 62 Security and energy p. 64 Self-repairing trucks p. 66 Trailer design p. 68

WorkforcE p. 71 Drivers, turnover and hours of service p. 72 Owner-operators and driver health p. 74 Technician shortage p. 76

Advancements in science, equipment and technology will forever change how America moves freight.

commercial carrier journal | october 2015 59

The way Americans work and live has changed forever because of advancements in science,

information and technology in the last 15 years that have out-paced those of the last century. Since 2000, we’ve seen revolutionary introductions such as Google, hybrid vehicles, social media, human genome mapping, tablets, consumer global positioning systems and 3D printing, just to name a few.

The trucking industry has been quick to adopt many consumer-born advancements into trucks and fleet operations. Look no further than passenger-car advanced safety systems and the smartphone. Today’s trucks are safer than ever thanks to lane departure warning and active collision mitigation systems. Drivers are more productive, armed with a mobile solution that enables hours-of-service compliance, pre-trip inspections, scanning, routing, weather alerts and more – all of which were manual tasks just a few years ago.

But what are the next evolutions in equipment and technol-ogy, and how will they affect freight transportation? How will that freight be delivered, and who will deliver it?

The editors of Commercial Carrier Journal and its sister pub-lications Overdrive, Truckers News, Successful Dealer and Truck Parts & Service asked these questions of transportation industry leaders, scholars and futurists, including many of the speakers at the 2015 Commercial Vehicle Outlook, an event co-produced by CCJ and the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association.

The result is this special report, which addresses the key changes to transportation that likely will happen in the coming decades, from driverless vehicles that diagnose themselves to smartphones that analyze driver health and wellness, as well as technological and societal changes.

But our coverage doesn’t stop here. Use your mobile device to scan the QR code to the right to view video interviews with subject matter experts, and visit ccjdigital.com/future for more in-depth coverage of the Commercial Vehicle Outlook and our Trucking’s Future Now interactive package.

– Jeff Crissey

frEight & infrAstructurE p. 79 Global highways and smart infrastructure p. 80 Heavier trucks and demographics p. 82 Drones and robot delivery p. 84 Wireless inspections and Uberization p. 86


Autonomous trucks, repair-on-demand and cybersecurity challenges

The trucks of the future will be bigger and smaller, smarter, connected, green, fuel-efficient and safe. And they will be profitable. But above

all else, they will be vital cogs in a global super-economy powered by logistics.

Trucking today is an industry on the edge of breathtaking and un-precedented challenges. Indeed, the changes already have begun as fleets break in new telematics programs, wrestle with wireless communication systems and electronic logging de-vices, experiment with new fuels and propulsion systems and adapt to ultra-fast electronic control modules – all of

this while nervously eyeing the horizon as new regulations, size and weight changes and autonomous vehicles take shape.

When it comes to making any of these new technologies work reliably and profitably, all arrows point to the fleet manager.

Perhaps the most exciting – but worrisome – thing about the next

several decades of technological change is the pace at which it will happen. There will be little breath-ing room from one breakthrough to the next, and it’s likely that fleet managers often will find themselves working to integrate several new, and major, technologies into their vehicles at the same time. The stakes will be high: All projections point to booming freight volumes combined with relentless pressure for ever-faster logistics.

Great rewards await the fleets and maintenance managers willing to tackle the coming technology boom. Will you be among the next genera-tion of trucking pioneers?

– JACK ROBERTS

Get more truckinG’s Future nowGo to ccjdigital.com/future for additional coverage, including video interviews, presentations from

the Trucking’s Future Now event in Dallas and an interactive decade-by-decade timeline.


canautonomous trucks stay the course?trucks will be where the future literally meets the road. And while the idea of autonomous vehicles may seem far-fetched, technology forecaster Paul Saffo says they are already here.

“We already have robotic cars driving around all over Silicon Valley,” Saffo says. “Lower-speed Google ro-botic cars are actually being used to pick up and drop off passengers today. These things are going to start appearing on our highways for use by real human beings – not just engineers testing them – before 2020.”

When it comes to au-tonomous trucks, OEMs must make a strong case for vehicle automation given the $30,000 to $50,000 upcharge for the technology and the fact that they still require a driver for some time, says Sandeep Kar, global vice president of automotive and transportation research for Frost & Sullivan. Still, it is not a question of how autono-mous trucks will enter the market, but when.

“Our forecast is that by 2025, we expect 8,000 autonomous trucks to be sold globally,” Kar says.

“About 3,000 of those trucks will be operat-ing in North America.”

Vehicle automation will be introduced in baby steps, says futurist Thomas Frey. “Think about the way cars

have changed over the years, from features like power steering to auto-matic transmissions to cruise control, and now we’re adding driverless features,” Frey says. “That trend will continue until we get to fully driverless cars. But I do

think the trucking world will advance faster with autono-mous technology than the automotive world because there’s more incentive for fleet owners to adopt it – mainly the enduring short-age of truck drivers.”

– JACK ROBERTS

how not to drive an autonomous truckCCJ equipment editor Jack roberts added an autonomous endorsement to his commercial driver’s license in las Vegas last month. Go to www.ccjdigital.com/future and check out the video to learn about his experience.

When we get autonomous trucks, “I hope the robots get

hungry and have good taste, because I can’t imagine traveling without stopping in truckers’ cafés.”

— Paul Saffo, futurist


Will platoons of trucks traverse our highWays?Platooning – “connecting” tractor-trailers wirelessly as a con-voy to coordinate their operation and control as they move down the

road –“will be the first step in truck automation,” says Josh switkes, founder and chief executive officer of peloton technology, an early

leader in developing platooning efforts. “it allows us to put trucks much closer together while still increasing safety because we have an automatic reaction to events by the rear truck.”

peloton’s truck platooning system is an integrated safety, efficiency and analytics platform that builds on advanced safety technologies such as collision mitigation and adaptive cruise control systems. the system couples trucks elec-tronically through a combination of vehicle-to-vehicle communications, radar-based active braking systems and proprietary vehicle control algorithms.

the results, switkes says, are enhanced collision avoidance capa-bilities and increased fuel efficiency for the front and rear trucks in a two-truck platoon. “this provides a great fuel economy increase on both the front truck and the rear truck from aerodynamic advantag-es,” he says. “it’s really intended to help drivers do their jobs better and safer.”

a study of peloton’s system by the north american council for Freight Efficiency and C.R. England, using the industry-standard sae type ii test, showed reductions in fuel con-sumption of 10 percent for the rear commercial vehicle and more than 4 percent for the front vehicle.

that’s what prompted volvo group venture capital, a subsidiary of the volvo group, to invest in peloton, which also is developing a platooning network operations center, a cloud-based service to help trucks find platooning part-ners, collect vehicle and driver data and allow the approval or adjust-ment of platooning parameters.

– JACK ROBERTS

in May, Freightliner introduced the inspiration, the first commercially viable autonomous truck. While

not yet available for purchase, thanks to legislative changes, it will cruise with public traffic all through-

out the state of nevada as Freightliner engineers test its capabilities and refine its operating parameters.

in 2013, C.R. England worked with Peloton on a test drive to validate fuel economy gains from its

platooning technology. it showed fuel consumption reductions ranging from 4 to 10 percent.


What energy Will poWer tomorroW’s trucks?while there neVer may be a Fuel as ideally suited to long-haul trucking as diesel, it’s a sure bet that fleet managers of the future will have new power sources at their disposal – both on and off the road.

“i think in the short and me-dium term that diesel is still go-ing to be the predominant fuel,” says Derek rotz, with Daimler trucks north america. “even looking out to the next 20 or 30 years, you’ll see some inroads with natural gas, but diesel will still be the main player. What may change is the composition of the diesel fuel. it may come from more bio sources as opposed to petroleum.”

technology forecaster paul saffo sees the trend toward electric vehicles starting to influ-ence truck design. “think about diesel freight engines on railroad tracks,” he says. “that’s actu-ally an electric vehicle. it gives you better torsion. the moment you have a robotically controlled vehicle, it’s just a lot easier to

can Future trucks bE ‘haCk-PRooF’?talkinG to a truck’s controller area network – CAN bus, for short – used to be a one-way street for most fleets. They could access information for review, but to communicate directly with the CAN bus to shut down the en-gine, lock the doors or perform other functions, they needed expensive aftermarket solutions.

In the future, trucks will have an ever-increas-ing amount of options to con-nect to more than just their data. Remote updates will be possible for systems and compo-nents, from the onboard navigation systems in the cab to the firmware of the engine, trans-mission and more. Within a few years, truck engines could be updated in real time to have the optimal horsepower and other specs based on location.

However, this connectivity expansion poses security risks. Car manufacturers already have had to address vulner-abilities in order to prevent hackers

from gaining access and control over some vehicle functions.

Trucks with valuable cargo in tow are a lucrative target for high-tech thieves. Organized crime rings already can jam the signals of GPS systems or “spoof” them to report false positions, says Guy Buesnel, a vulnerabilities expert

for Spirent.Spoofing

technology can make finding a stolen vehicle difficult, and as autonomous trucks hit the roads, savvy hackers might lead these trucks off route by tampering with GPS sig-nals to confuse

their onboard navigation systems. Anti-jamming and -spoofing applica-tions will be needed to prevent this scenario, Buesnel says.

Some cars already are being physically redesigned to reduce the impact of cyber-compromise, says Matt Carpenter, a vehicle security expert. Meanwhile, large trucks have been slower to adopt new whiz-bang

technology such as infotainment systems, which gives them fewer dangerous attack vectors, Car-penter says.

“The connectedness profile of trucks looks a bit different than most cars, so they may have a small buffer, which may provide them a little more time to address security issues,” he says.

– AARON HUFF

“As autonomous trucks hit the roads, savvy hackers might

lead these trucks off route by tampering with GPS signals.”

— guy buesnel, Spirent

increased connectivity will make trucks of the future – especially those carrying high-value cargo – vulnerable to hacking.

solar-powered trucks are in development, but power storage, especially in long-haul applications, remains a concern.


Will fuTure Trucks repAir Themselves?short oF a maJor and obVious CataStRoPhiC EvEnt, a small ambigu-ous dash-mounted light used to be the only way a truck could communicate a failure to its driver.

Now, the truck itself has become a ma-jor tool in helping fleets and technicians find and resolve faults – in many cases before they lead to downtime.

If that sounds like Star Trek technology, what lies ahead is as much Engineer Scotty as it is Mr. Goodwrench.

“Probably the next Holy Grail is over-the-air updates,” says Andy Weiblen, director of product planning and strategy for Peterbilt. “We’ll be able to see what’s the problem with the truck [and] fix the truck while it’s at its next shutdown, or even while it’s on the road – sending it the right software update and telling it ‘Go change these parameters to resolve that issue going down the road.’”

Remote updates – or Flashing Over The Air (FOTA) – also could help fleets

optimize trucks based on each trip.“With FOTA, in a number of years,

each vehicle could be programmed for the specific route to optimize fuel economy based on terrain, load type and weather and traffic forecasts,” says Mike McQuade, co-founder and chief strategy officer for Zonar.

Remote updates also could eliminate dealer visits and downtime for quick-fix computer-based issues, says Stephen Roy of Mack Trucks.

But as these types of cloud-based tech-nologies interact with the vehicle, some

believe they will need to be developed with open architecture, allowing for more of an all-makes approach for remote service, diagnostics and updates.

“[Open architecture is] going to help us on the service-lane side when we start integrating with dealership management systems,” says Michael Cerilli, Navistar vice president and general manager for Connected Vehicles.

– JASON CANNON

get fine control if your propulsion system is also electric.”

taking that trend toward hy-brid electric systems also makes fuel cell technology easier, saffo says. “Whatever shift we make is not going to be because of the cost of fuel,” he says. “it will be the cost of maintenance and the needs of increasingly automated systems. it’s going to shift over because we need the higher performance and control that electric brings.”

futurist thomas frey foresees experimentation with many non-fossil fuel power sources. “solar and wind are taking off like rockets,” he says. “We’re putting up solar panels and wind farms everywhere, and the price of photoelectric cells is going down.

“the gasoline industry is not going to go away, but it will start declining,” frey says. “i think we’re real close to the peak use of gaso-line in the world. We hit the peak number of car use in the united states in June of 2005, and it’s been declining ever since.”

– JACK ROBERTS

When it comes to solar and wind, “the piece of the puzzle that’s missing is storage. How do we store power from one day to the next?”

– thomas Frey, futurist

in the future, remote diagnostics

could eliminate dealer visits and

downtime, especially for easy-

to-fix computer updates.

an all-makes open architecture may be needed for cloud-based diagnostics and

remote service updates to evolve further.


Will We recognize the trailers of tomorroW?trailer desiGn today is a series of compromises between cargo space, weight and fuel economy. Meanwhile, new technologies are pushing OEMs to reevaluate long-standing designs and look at how trailers will be used in the future.

With the announcement of Phase II of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Trans-portation’s proposed fuel economy and greenhouse gas regulations, the trailer is becoming a more significant part of the overall equation, says Dick Giromini, president and chief execu-tive officer of Wabash National.

“Designing a trailer with a lower

coefficient of drag results in higher fuel economy and less GHG emissions for the tractor-trailer combination,” Giromini says. “Additionally, we are constantly looking at the balance be-tween weight and design.” About 60 percent of fleets today are in weight-sensitive applications, he says.

The trailer is the final frontier for major aerodynamic improvements in the tractor-trailer combination, says Charlie Willmott with the Strick Group, Daimler Trucks’ partner for its 2015 SuperTruck. “The end result will be far superior to today’s van prod-ucts,” he says.

Integrating telematics and GPS

tracking systems into new trailer designs is yet another piece of the puzzle. Giromini points to the so-called “Internet of Things” that will al-low fleets logistical transparency and flow into all facets of their operations.

“We’re rapidly moving from IoT being a possibility to more of a real-ity,” he says, with the challenge being merging truck technology and trailer technology effectively.

In the near future, Willmott sees “smart” trailer systems being fully integrated with the tractor to provide enhanced telematics, sensors for self-inspection, predictive analytics for diagnostic maintenance, data for bet-ter driver and management operating visibility and control, improved public safety and security, and reduced cargo loss and theft.

“Van trailers 10 years from now will bear little resemblance to the trailers of today,” he says.

– JACK ROBERTS

“As technology continues to develop and become more affordable, it is likely that you will see more and more ‘smart’ technology being incorporated.”

— Dick giromini, Wabash national

Many of the fuel-efficient add-ons we see on trailers today will be integrated with the standard design in the future, oEMs say.


Fear. That’s the feeling many in today’s trucking workforce have when they think about tomorrow’s technology and what it means for

their jobs. And the future does hold major changes, from eliminating many of the main duties that occupy today’s drivers and technicians to health advances that could mean a more vibrant, fit labor pool.

But despite truck drivers’ concerns, even fully autonomous trucks don’t take humans out of the picture, renowned physicist and futurist Michio Kaku said during the Commercial Vehicle Outlook in Dallas in August.

When the truck stops, there’s still the need to take inventory, sign forms and keep track of things, he said. “Robots are bad at nonrepetitive tasks,” meaning jobs critical to our economy and society as a whole – truckers, dock workers, firefighters,

policemen and construction workers – will still play critical roles.

Even the beleaguered owner-operator business model, long rumored to be on its deathbed, will reinvent itself yet again, experts predict. The leased model will give way to more true independents who will use financial and logistics technologies to service a range of carriers, brokers and shippers and to specialize in certain types of freight or specific lanes.

“The thing to keep in mind is that humans create the economy,” says futurist Thomas Frey. While jobs will change and new skills will be learned, ultimately, “we want to keep people employed because they are the economic engines that drive everything.”

– LINDA LONGTON

New, tech-savvy roles for drivers, independents and technicians




WILL TECHNOLOGY ELIMINATE TURNOVER?say hello to a future with-out the hassle of 90 percent-plus driver turnover. Predictive modeling, which uses forecast-ing data to create a statistical model of future behavior, is about to change the retention game.

“The big gains [from predictive analytics] are in understanding drivers and their work preferences and matching them to the right company,” says Dean Croke, vice president of Omnitracs Analytics, whose data work

will DriVers still DriVe? as increasinGly automated vehicles no longer re-quire full-time operators, the long-haul driver job will shift to that of an in-cab systems manager, a role that trucking futurists refer to as the “captain of the ship,” a job similar to that of an airline pilot. Automation will replace on-highway tasks such as changing speeds, braking and steering, and potentially take over more complex tasks such as changing lanes and exiting highways.

Instead, drivers will perform higher-level technical work such as monitor-ing diagnostics systems, optimizing routing, communi-cating with other truck operators to form on-highway platoons and han-dling some of the dispatch and load-finding responsibilities. They’ll also keep eyes on the host of complex autonomous, telematics and other smart systems that will grace trucks’ dashes. And they will be on guard to take control of the vehicle if needed.

Drivers still will do some of the same nondriving work as today, such as load securement, walkarounds and other pre- and post-trip duties.

But some levels of automation could replace even those tasks. Paul Menig, chief executive officer of Tech-I-M, a strategic management and business con-sulting firm, envisions a day when truckers can pull into a truck stop and be done with their day’s work.

“I could get out of the truck at the fuel island, say ‘goodbye truck’ – I am now relieved of duty,” Menig says. “The truck would finish fueling, finish getting its diesel exhaust fluid, do its diagnostic check, and then it would go park itself. And I can go get in line for a shower.”

– JAMES JAILLET

Truck drivers take note:

“Robots are bad at non-repetitive tasks.”

— michio kaku, physicist and futurist

Predictive analytics will help match drivers to the fleets that

best meet their work preferences.


HOW WILL HOURS OF SERVICE AND PAY CHANGE?the cominG aDoPtion of autonomous trucks and platooning raises the question of whether hours-of-service regulations will be changed to treat a driver’s on-duty time differently if he’s getting a form of rest.

Giving drivers relief from stressful tasks such as navigating dense traffic and the fatigue that comes with always staying vigilant behind the wheel could open the door for loosen-ing some regulatory burdens that truck operators and fleets face now, such as increasing maximum on-duty time or at least easing HOS regulations.

“[Automation] shifts the whole job as we know it today,” says John Elliott, CEO of Load One, a Taylor, Mich.-based fleet. “[We could] see workload rules that apply to what that world is and not the world today.”

Similarly, per-mile-based pay likely will migrate toward time-based pay models or even salaries for company drivers and percentage-of-load for independent owner-operators. Gordon Klemp, National Transportation Institute principal, has seen more hourly pay packages for company drivers from carriers of all kinds as freight regionalization in both van and reefer seg-ments continues to intensify and haul lengths decline – dynam-ics expected to continue in the future.

For leased owner-operators, percentage pay has become more prominent in recent good economic times, says Todd Amen, president of ATBS, the nation’s largest owner-opera-tor business services firm. As rates heat up, the percentage pay model is often the best way for an independent to maximize earning potential in a leased operation.

Percentage also is the pay method most closely as-sociated to true independents operating with their own authority. As the concern for greater autonomy grows for such independent contractors (see “What will happen to owner-operators?” p. 74), percentage pay is likely to remain the dominant model, Amen says.

– JAMES JAILLET AND TODD DILLS

With autonomous trucks, “We still need that person behind the wheel…

but we don’t want them just sitting there.”

— John elliott, loadone ceo

encompasses safety and retention.

That’s also the focus for Stay Metrics, which uses driver surveys and recognition and reward programs to boost retention. The industry has long used a generalized ap-proach to fight high turnover, but the future lies in analyz-ing individual fleets’ unique qualities, says Craig Kinnear, the company’s insights strate-gist. While some fleets can be outwardly similar to each other, less tangible differences in their corporate cultures can produce much different results in retention.

These analytics provid-ers and their clients have glimpsed not only the poten-tial of predictive analytics, but also the necessity of using data tools to stay competitive.

“It’s just coming so fast,” says Steve Bryan, CEO of Vigillo, the leading cruncher of data from the Compliance Safety Accountability pro-gram. “You see big numbers – 40, 50 percent increases in profitability and revenues for those that really embrace this new data world. So it’s going to be hard to see how you opt out of that.”

– MAX HEINE

while hard to imagine today, some futurists such as thomas Frey predict drivers in automated trucks could use their downtime to do freelance work.


WILL DRIVER HEALTH IMPROVE THROUGH TECHNOLOGY?

meDical Futurists predict a healthier out-look for truck drivers, a profession plagued by high levels of obesity, smoking, heart disease and diabetes, all com-pounded by a nomadic lifestyle that can make getting proper medical care difficult. Fortu-nately, technological advancements eventu-ally will alleviate these concerns, says Berta-lan Mesko, Ph.D. and medical futurist.

“I believe that much like remote diagnos-tics for truck engines,

remote care or telemedicine will play a large role in truckers’ health care,” Mesko says. Doctors will super-vise their patients via smartphones wherever they are located and instantly view an online, updated health profile. Whenever a driver needs medical attention, they will be able to open an application on their device and get access to a doctor via a video consultation.

When it comes to managing chronic conditions, the ongoing “wearable revolution” offers many cheap and

what will haPPen to owner-oPerators?the PercentaGe of trucks on the road controlled by leased operators and indepen-dents with their own authority was about 10 percent 25 years ago, says Todd Amen, presi-dent of ATBS, the nation’s larg-est owner-operator business services firm. Those numbers are holding steady today and won’t change significantly by 2040, Amen predicts.

What will change is the relationship between leased operators and carriers, says Jay Thompson, prin-cipal of Transpor-tation Business Associates, a provider of transport business development, marketing, con-sulting and training services. Technological advancements that will unite the financial side of the owner-operator business with the systems of multiple carrier and brokerage partners will make it easier for independent contractors to be truly independent, Thompson says.

Tomorrow’s owner-operators likely will specialize in a lane or within a set geography, work

closely with more than one carrier and may even “pull a Schneider or Swift trailer from point to point and then get someone else’s trailer to go back,” Thompson says. Having multiple business partners will provide greater independence for owner-operators and could relieve carriers from the threat of misclassification challenges to employee-independent

contractor status so prevalent today.

Telematics sys-tems in virtually all trucks will give owner-operators tools to make better business decisions. “You’ll

be able to do a better job of personal time-planning and managing your log time,” Thompson says. “Information sharing [with shippers and receivers] will make the flow of freight in and out better.”

Such technological ad-vancements will create “an increasing kind of osmosis between the big guys and the small guys,” he says. “I see it all as an area of opportunity” for small businesses.

– TODD DILLS

Technology will let owner-operators be independent and “not tied to massive companies.”

— todd amen, president, atBs

“We might not be far from using baseball hats or T-shirts equipped with special sensors that could notify the vehicle when the driver is falling asleep.”

— Bertalan mesko, medical futurist

embracing technology will help future owner-operators

be more business-savvy.

telemedicine will improve driver health by letting doctors supervise them via smartphone wherever they are.


can technoloGy solVe the technician shortaGe?comBine tomorrow’s techno-logically sophisticated trucks with a younger generation more acclimated to computers than wrenches, and you just might have an answer to the technician shortage, experts say.

“There’s such advancement in the technology that it’s become way more difficult to find the right type of skill set,” says Joe Edmonds, Navistar’s project manager for mo-bile service lane technology. “The days of the old-school technicians, with all the little tricks they know, have long since passed.” And with onboard computers such a critical component, “we need someone who is going to understand down to the actual communication that is going through the vehicle.”

As the number of heavy-truck technicians retiring already outpaces the younger tech-savvy workers entering the field, Edmonds hopes the computer acumen required in the

evolving service bay will become a recruiting point.

“We hope it makes the service technician position more desirable,” he says. “It’s becoming more of a professional-level job.” Technicians who are able to grasp ever-changing innovations quickly will be in higher demand in tomorrow’s shops be-cause they will be key in reducing fleet downtime.

“We’re already getting to the point where we have to have more and more (technicians) that are capable of using a computer and helping diagnose and solve some of the early issues before you get to the technician who is actually touch-ing the component,” says Stephen Roy, president of Mack Trucks North America sales and marketing. “We see this as a way to drive workshop efficiency, and we do that because we can better diagnose the truck.”

– JASON CANNON

effective devices that can measure vital signs and health parameters such as heart rate, breath rate, tempera-ture, blood glucose, oxygen satura-tion, stress level, daily physical activities or attention, Mesko says.

A con-tact lens

patented by Google measures blood glucose levels from tears. In the case of truck drivers, digital tattoos could notify them through their smartphone if there is a medical issue that needs attention.

Eventually, says futurist Jim Carroll, “We will move from a health care sys-tem that fixes people after they are sick to one that offers preventative diagnostic medicine and treats them for the conditions the data shows they are likely to develop.

“Imagine a trucker settling into his seat before he starts his route,” Car-roll says. “The seat has sensors built into it and armrests that can measure his glucose, blood pressure, pulse, temperature and body motions. The data is stored in a cloud, and a doctor can remotely receive alerts and ac-cess the data.”

– CAROLYN MASON

Jason Cannon

Promoting the technologically advanced nature of the diesel technician’s role could bring younger people — who grew up with smart-phones — into the industry.

soon tears could measure blood sugar levels with the help of a special contact lens.


Drones, on-demand deliveries and the promise of global roadways

Imagine a day when a 91,000-pound autonomous truck picks up a load of wheat in North Dakota, travels west across Canada into Alaska and over the

newly completed Bering Strait Crossing, and then reaches its destination in Russia.

It’s hard to envision such a scenario when the current political climate makes even maintaining our existing infrastruc-ture difficult. Yet, futurists highlight the increasing globalization of our economy and the need for trucking to find ever more efficient ways to meet the freight demands of the world’s population over the coming decades.

Over the next 11 years alone, the

American Trucking Associations predicts U.S. freight tonnage will increase 28.6 percent. While trucking remains the dominant mode of freight transportation, its share dips slightly as pipelines pick up a bigger piece due to huge growth in energy production.

Technology’s role in developing the freight infrastructure to meet that demand is large and growing and could

encompass everything from delivery-by-drone to Uber-like parcel delivery solutions, experts say. Already, countries such as Japan are finding new ways to meet consumer needs, says Sandeep Kar with Frost & Sullivan. There, commuters stepping off the train are faced with an LCD screen advertising groceries. “You tap the screen, order your groceries and give them your address,” Kar says. “By the time you get home, it’s delivered.”

What advancements are in store for moving tomorrow’s freight is anybody’s guess. What’s certain is we must embrace some combination of technology and infrastructure improvements to keep the United States competitive in an increas-ingly connected global economy.

– LINDA LONGTON




How will tHe Panama Canal exPansion affeCt freigHt Patterns?next year, the Panamanian government will open the new shipping channel locks as part of its nine-year $5-bil-lion Panama Canal expan-sion project. whereas cargo ships with only 5,000 20-foot equivalent unit capacities can pass through the canal today, the expansion will allow “new Panamax” ships with capaci-ties of 12,000 teUs to reach certain east Coast ports for the first time via the 100-year-old canal system.

the impact of the canal’s larger lock system could usher in a new era of ocean freight for ports along the U.s. gulf Coast and eastern seaboard. Various studies on the project’s impact on port activity range from 10 to 25 percent of asia-to-north america ocean freight shifting from west Coast ports to those on the east Coast, creating the potential for in-creased trucking operations in the south and northeast.

But experts say any changes

are we on a PatH towarD GLoBaL HiGHways? “we are movinG towarD an era of mega-projects,” says futurist Thomas Frey, pointing to four primary bridge projects under discussion now that could connect the planet in previously incon-ceivable ways.

“We’ll finish the Pan-American Highway with a 25-mile bridge over the Darien Gap in Panama,” Frey says, referring to the 30,000-mile route that stretches from Prudhoe Bay, U.S., to Ushuaia, Ar-gentina, and the 60-mile stretch of rainforest that, due to environ-mental concerns, is its only missing link. “If we were actually able to connect that stretch, we would see trucks hauling freight back and forth between North and South America and could potentially double the size of the trucking industry.”

Frey also cites another bridge project in Gibraltar that would connect Europe with Africa, another to connect Japan and Korea and the potential for a land bridge across the Bering Sea connecting Alaska and Russia.

Such mega-projects could have huge impli-cations for trucking and advancing the middle classes around the globe, says Frost & Sullivan’s Sandeep Kar.

“In that scenario, the United States, with its al-ready-advanced factory farms, will feed the world,” Kar says. “In 50 years, it might not be at all unusual for an autonomous truck to leave a farm with a load of grain and drive all the way to Russia.”

– JACK ROBERTS

Mega-bridge:Darien Gap, Panama Euro-African

Highway

Mega-bridge:Gibraltar-Africa Mega-bridge:

Japan-Korea

Mega-bridge:Bering Straitto Russia

mega-projects with intercon-tinental bridges could have huge implications for trucking.


in the future, “trucks will be smarter, freight will be moved

faster, and the whole process will be more efficient.”

— sandeep kar, Frost & sullivan

WILL ‘SMART’ INFRASTRUCTURE END CONGESTION?From eLectronic Beacons in guardrails that warn vehicles to steer clear, to systems that minimize congestion by optimizing routing and traffic signals, the potential benefits of smart infrastructure abound.

And yet, “We can’t even keep our roads free of potholes,” insists the University of Minnesota’s David Levinson. “The likelihood that we’re going to make them smart is far-fetched.” The political and financial roadblocks to infrastructure investment are big reasons why the private sector has leap-frogged government, focusing on vehicle-to-vehicle versus vehicle-to-infrastructure communication, experts say.

Longer term, that must change, says Sandeep Kar of Frost & Sullivan. “Smart infrastructure that communicates with vehicles will be vital,” Kar says. “Right now, if we repave a road, we make it better, but we don’t make it ‘smarter.’” That’s why platoon-ing and Level 3 vehicles will occur first, while Level 4 vehicles, which rely heavily on smart infrastructure, will be much farther out, he says.

When that time comes, big data will play a critical role in maximizing the possibilities, predicts Daim-ler’s Derek Rotz, who foresees using data to “further fine-tune the vehicles, how they’re driven and what routes they’ll take.”

While that will solve some problems, new ones will emerge, says futurist Paul Saffo. “We’ll have robot congestion” caused by people who insist on owning their own robotic cars rather than using them in Uber-like fashion, Saffo says. “Instead of worrying about a parking spot if they go to dinner in San Francisco, they will just tell their robotic car to keep driving around the city until it’s needed.”

– JACK ROBERTS

Mega-bridge:Darien Gap, Panama Euro-African

Highway

Mega-bridge:Gibraltar-Africa Mega-bridge:

Japan-Korea

Mega-bridge:Bering Straitto Russia

in freight patterns as a result of the Panama Canal expansion will be evolutionary, not revo-lutionary. “it’s going to take a while to play itself out,” says David levinson, transportation chair at the University of min-nesota. “the capacity at east Coast ports is another issue.”

also, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report, warehouse capacity at major east Coast ports increased only 1.2 percent between 2012 and 2014, which could create major constraints.

– JEFF CRISSEY

Four primary bridge projects under discussion now could connect the planet

and make trucking a truly global industry.

Houston

Port ofMiami

Port ofEverglades

Savannah, GACharleston, S.C.

Norfolk, VA

Baltimore

Port of New York/New Jersey

Ports that are or will be capable of receiving post-Panamax ships by the time the canal expansion is complete include norfolk, va., Baltimore, new york/new Jersey, Houston, charles-ton, s.c., savannah, Ga., miami and the Port of everglades, Fla. Dredging, surface infrastructure, warehousing and rail improvements are currently underway at these locations to accommodate the additional freight.


HOW WILL DEMOGRAPHICS, CONSUMER DEMANDS AFFECT FREIGHT?DeLivery oF consumer GooDs is headed back to the future, with a resurgence of signal-based or on-demand deliv-ery systems akin to leaving your empty milk bottles on the front step, says David levinson with the University of minnesota. for instance, amazon Dash is a com-puter chip button you press to send an alert when your laundry detergent is running low and have a refill delivered to your door. In many large cities, you already can have groceries delivered – some-times within the hour.

“Historically, people went out shopping and brought stuff home,” levinson says. “they were essentially their own logis-tics providers for the last mile.” But as online retail grows to 10 percent of sales and higher, the last mile of shipping will be more

wiLL BiGGer, Heavier trucks increase comPetitiveness?news FLasH: The United States has the worst truck freight efficiency of the world’s developed countries. That was the sober-ing finding delivered by University of Michi-gan professor John Woodrooffe during a panel discussion at the 2015 Commercial Vehicle Outlook in Dallas.

The reason, Woodrooffe said, is size and weight limits that have been frozen for 30 years. “The U.S. is the least productive country in the world when it comes to truck productivity,” he said.

Could vehicle automation and highly evolved telematics and connectivity change that?

The limited efficiency of the U.S. trucking industry today causes consum-ers and society at large to lose or lag in key areas. Just a 10 percent reduction in truck mileage, Woodrooffe said, could prevent 330 fatal truck crashes a year, cut about 30 million metric tons of CO2 emissions annually and save about 10.6 billion liters of diesel. The kicker, he said, could be about a $16 billion boon to the U.S. economy.

Barring congressional action on the matter before automated vehicles become prevalent, automation could pave the way for legislation to allow larger or at least

heavier vehicles on U.S. highways.Increasingly automated sys-

tems that decrease both driver fatigue and crash risk also could mitigate the potential safety risks of trucks weighing 100,000 pounds or more. Subsequent changes to size and weight rules could allow more efficient move-ment of U.S. freight and deliver on Woodrooffe’s predictions.

– JAmES JAILLET

“Increasing truck size and weight will level the playing field between the

U.S. and key competitors like the European Union, Canada and Mexico.”

– John woodrooffe

increasing size and weight limits would prevent fatal truck crashes, cut emissions and save diesel fuel,

transportation experts say.

under a ‘hub-and-spoke’ system, large trucks will move freight between mega-cities, with smaller trucks taking it from there.


WILL DRONES AND ROBOTS DELIVER THE GOODS?tHey aLreaDy Do, says technol-ogy forecaster Paul Saffo. While a robotics company in Tijuana uses drones to deliver parts several times a day between manufacturing plants, other applications are not exactly legal. “Our customs enforcement is catching a couple of drones a week trying to move cocaine across the border,” he says.

Before long, Saffo says, compa-nies will deliver high-value goods such as (legal) drugs via drones, especially “in the developing world where you don’t have the infrastructure” to make conventional deliveries efficiently. The biggest roadblocks to faster adoption of delivery-by-drone in the United States are regulatory and legal, ex-perts say. Rules proposed in February by the Federal Aviation Administration for commercial drone use forbid them from carrying any external weight, such as a package, and require the operator to keep their drones in sight at all times.

David Levinson, transportation chair at the University of Minnesota, imagines a time when robots will deliver goods to

peoples’ homes. “This assumes robots will be able to be mass-manufactured with these skills for a reasonable price, which we’re sort of taking as a given,” Levinson says. Robotic deliveries have the potential to drive labor costs out of the system, which could make many items that are cost-prohibitive today more affordable, he says.

Whether it’s drones or robots, Saffo says, the “logistics chain is going to become a lot more intelligent and ever more complex.”

– LINDA LONGTON, JACK ROBERTS AND WAYNE GRAYSON

significant. He believes we’ve reached “peak big box” and that wal-mart or target eventu-ally might become less stores and more warehouses for order fulfillment by a third party and perhaps even a robot or drone.

such changes will be more prevalent within the next 20 to 30 years when 70 percent of the global population will live in urban areas, says frost & sullivan’s sandeep Kar, who envisions a hub-and-spoke system “with large trucks moving freight from mega-city to mega-city, and then smaller trucks taking it from there.”

Driving these advancements will be an aging population that will demand front-door delivery and younger consumers whose world is run by smartphones and wearables, Kar says.

– LINDA LONGTON, JEFF CRISSEY AND JACK ROBERTS

“Do parcel delivery drivers

have special skills, or could amateurs replace them – as with Uber?”

– David Levinson, university of minnesota

robotic deliveries could drive down labor costs, which

could make many of today’s too-expensive items more affordable to the masses.

Am

azon

amazon’s Dash lets you instantly order deter-gent, grocer-ies, personal care items and pet food with the push of a button.


IS THE FUTURE OF INSPECTIONS WIRELESS?witH onBoarD sensors already monitoring a truck’s criti-cal safety systems and telematics units becoming more prevalent, the answer, experts say, is yes.

Within 15 years, a truck pass-ing a scale or a mobile enforce-ment unit could record an au-tomatic clean – or not-so-clean – inspection in state and federal systems, says Jay Thomp-son of Transporta-tion Business Associates. Such systems could help correct problems more quickly while reduc-ing hassles that come with today’s roadside inspections.

The goal of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s Wireless Roadside Inspection pro-gram – set to launch a multistate test before yearend – is to increase the number of inspections by retrieving real-time safety data at roadside without direct interac-tion between the driver and law enforcement. “It will give a recom-mendation to the inspector at the site to either inspect or don’t inspect,” says Steve Vaughn of PrePass provider Help Inc.

While auto-

mating inspection procedures where possible also has been discussed, concerns remain – es-pecially when it comes to privacy. “How much data collected by automated roadside systems on carriers will be made available to the public?” Vaughn asks.

Others fear the federal gov-ernment is building a system

that could compete with existing privately-held systems such as PrePass and Drivewyze that perform some of the same func-tions. “Is that the appropri-ate federal role?” asks

Steve Keppler, formerly with the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance.

Congress is considering these issues, including whether to con-tinue funding for the program. But as regulations continue to eat into carrier productivity, wire-less inspections might be one way to give a little back.

– TODD DILLS

WILL TRUCKING EVER BE ‘UBER’-IZED? aPP-BaseD car service uBer turned the taxi busi-ness upside down seem-ingly overnight, and a bevy of apps have been released in recent years claiming to be “the Uber of trucking.”

which begs the question: will there be an app that changes commercial freight movement as much as Uber has changed personal transportation? maybe, but not in the same way that it changed the taxi business, says steve sashihara, presi-dent and chief executive officer of Princeton Consultants.

“Uberization,” used in a broader sense, will work its way into the trucking industry in the form of gleaning extra productivity out of carriers and drivers, says sashihara. “Uberization is a way to get people to concentrate on what the inefficiencies are in communicating capacity and demand,” he says.

ivan tsybaev of freight-matching app trucker Path doesn’t like the “Uber of trucking” descrip-tion of such services. “there are some companies saying, ‘we’re going to eliminate brokers from the supply chain,’” tsybaev says, but that’s not the real-ity. the goal is simply to “optimize the experience.”

there’s nothing new about using technology to connect shippers and carriers; the earliest web-based loadboards came about in the mid-1990s and continue to evolve today.

where an Uber-like model could change that, says sashihara, is in offering more direct, auto-mated connections for the two parties, rather than carriers or owner-operators digging through tabs of loadboards of shipper- or broker-posted freight.

like other looming changes in the industry, the potential spark for uberization is likely the uptake of vehicle automation and telematics-based con-nectivity, sashihara says, which could pave the way for automated and instantaneous freight matching.

– JAmES JAILLET AND TODD DILLS

“We’ll have sensors on certain things that will throw a red flag for a closer look.”

– Jay thompson, transportation Business associates

By 2030, a truck passing a scale or a mobile enforcement unit could record an automatic

inspection in state and federal systems.

could vehicle automation and telematics-based connectivity pave the way for uber-like freight matching?

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