Advisory group meeting

10 October 2008

Work Package 1: Mortality trends and their implications

Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications

To model and project mortality levels and trends:Overall patterns in Britain & other developed countries

Marital-status differences in mortality

Cause-specific mortality to assess the sensitivity to assumptions about future prevalence and incidence of the key set of diseases

Sex differentials

Socio-demographic variables and how they may change in decades to come

Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications

Outputs:

Forecasts & cross-national analyses of mortality trends using a range of recently-developed statistical methods as inputs to other Work Packages

Elucidate processes by which cohort effects may work through particular diseases by analysing the role of cause-specific mortality

Assess whether socio-economic differentials continue up to the highest ages, and, in particular, whether these differentials are changing over time.

Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications

Project-specific Inputs & Outputs:

Mortality rates by sex, age and some variables e.g. marital status in period up to 2030 used to produce estimates of numbers of older people under a range of alternative assumptions.

Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications

Mortality trends & implications linkages

Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: Modelling mortality using age period cohort (APC) models

Tesselation of mortality surface in symmetric format

Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: associations between macro level mortality and morbidity trends in Britain in the past three decades

Mortality actual

Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: associations between macro level mortality and morbidity trends in Britain in the past three decades

Mortality, all ages 16 & over

Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: associations between macro level mortality and morbidity trends in Britain in the past three decades

Limiting long−standing illness actual

Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: associations between macro level mortality and morbidity trends in Britain in the past three decades

limiting long−standing illness, all ages 16 & over; N=508046 model= ns

Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: age and proximity to death as factors in use of acute and long-term care services

Average Number of Days in Hospital/LTC, in previous 12 months by Sex, Age and Survival status, Finland

Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: age and proximity to death as factors in use of acute and long-term care services

Average Number of Days in Hospital/LTC, in previous 12 months by Age, Marital status and Survival status, Finland

Work package 3: Kinship analysis

Estimates of childlessness in Britain from the middle of the 19th century: proportions of women ever−married by exact ages 35,40 and 45

Work package 3: Kinship analysis

Estimates of childlessness in Britain from the middle of the 19th century: all series (combined marriage ages), adjusted for non−marriage

Work package 3: Kinship analysis

Data quality in retrospective surveys: childlessness estimates by cohort & age at interview (smoothed)

Work package 3: Kinship analysis: changing kinship universes across the demographic transition

Average number of living kin: comparison of survey and model data

Work package 3: Kinship analysis: changing kinship universes across the demographic transition

Proportion with living natural parents

by age of ego