Afghanistan

• Case study in changing geopolitics• Monarchy until 1973 (Zahir Shah)

– On top of ethnic and tribal structure

• 1973-1978: Republic led by Muhammad Daud Khan• 1978: Communist coup--People’s Democratic Party

– Significant reforms (replace tribal structure, land reform, reduced power of Islamic clerics)

– Instability (tribal, business, and Islamic resistance)– Possibility of government’s fall

Soviet Occupation

• December 1979, 85,000 Soviet troops invade Afghanistan

• Install communist regime• Disparate resistance groups

– Islamic groups, tribal groups, business groups • Mujihadeen—Islamic resistance

• Brutal, long struggle until 1989– Soviets withdraw from Afghanistan beginning in 1988

Proxy War• During Soviet occupation (1979-1989)• CIA joins Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to give significant aid

to Islamic resistance– Largest covert aid program since Vietnam War– 1980-1987 as much as $15 billion– Weapons (stinger missiles), supplies, training– Orchestrated out of Pakistan by ISI—Pakistan’s security agency

• Why Islamic resistance?– Evidence of commitment of Islamic fighters– Incite Islamic unrest in Soviet Union– Iran counterbalance

• Sunni groups vs. Iran’s Shi’i Islam

Anatomy of Mujihadeen• Several components:• Afghani Islamic groups in Afghanistan• Islamists recruited mostly from Arab countries (Algeria,

Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc.)—the Afghanis• Taliban (students) and similar groups

– Afghani refugees in camps in Western Pakistan (mostly Pashtun)– Saudi aid and expertise—2500 madrassas

• Wahhabi Islam

– CIA financial aid– Overseen by ISI, Pakistan’s security organization

• Looking to create an ally in the west

Post-1988 Afghanistan

• Soviet withdrawal in 1988-9• Fall of Soviet Union, 1991• U.S. withdraws much funding and interest in Afghanistan

– No longer of cold war importance

• Afghanistan’s Communist government falls in 1992• Mujihadeen and ethnic groups struggle to take power• Rise of Taliban from 1994 with extensive ISI backing

– 1996 capture Kabul– Control ~90% of Afghanistan until recently– Recognized as legitimate only by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia

bin Laden’s role• During Soviet occupation (1979-1989): leader of

Harakat ul-Ansar (volunteers movement)– Recruited non-Afghanis (mainly Arabs) to fight the

Soviets in Afghanistan– Funding: his own fortune, CIA, ISI – CIA expertise, training through ISI– Engaged in guerrilla warfare, terrorism against Soviets

with support of U.S., Pakistan, Saudi Arabia– Notion that Islamic resistance defeated the Soviet Union

and brought about its collapse

More bin Laden• Soviets defeated; next threat to Islam: U.S.• Bin Laden returns to Saudi Arabia

– Has established new organization: al-Qa’ida (the base)– Many other Afghanis return to their home countries

• bin Laden critical of – U.S. air strikes and sanctions against Iraq– U.S. support of Israel– U.S. backing of pro-western autocrats in Egypt, Saudi

Arabia, Algeria– Saudi government allowing U.S. troops on the Arabian

peninsula

U.S. troops in peninsula

• Some 5,000 troops and equipment in Saudi Arabia– 4,000 in Kuwait, 1,300 in Bahrain, 50 in Qatar

• To enforce no fly-zone in Iraq

• To protect against a coup in Saudi Arabia

bin Laden moves• His strident protests against Saudi government• Leaves for Sudan in 1991 (taking ~$250 million in assets)• 1993 first WTC bombing• Saudi government strips him of Saudi citizenship in 1994

– 1995 bomb at Saudi National Guard base in Riyadh

• 1996, Taliban gain control of Afghanistan• 1996 U.S. and Saudi Arabia pressure Sudanese government,

he is expelled• Returns to Afghanistan under protection of Taliban and

Mullah Omar (related by marriage)– 1996 truck bomb near Dhahran air base (19 American soldiers killed)

Further attacks

• 1998 embassy bombings in Tanzania, Kenya (212 killed, most Kenyan and Tanzanian)– Clinton launches cruise missile attacks against bin Laden camps in

Afghanistan

• 2000, U.S.S. Cole bombing off Yemen (15 killed)• 2001, WTC and Pentagon (thousands killed)• U.S. begins war against Taliban regime and al-Qa’ida• Returns its attention to Afghanistan as a strategic area

– Except, now fighting bitterly against its former proxies (mujihadeen)– Russia and Putin now allies

• Further U.S. operations in Yemen, Sudan, Iraq?