Afghanistan: The Re-election of Hamid Karzai

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AFGHANISTAN REPORT 4

Haseeb Humayoon

January 2010

The re-elecTion ohamid karzai



Front Cover Photograph: President Hamid Karzai walks down the carpet as he is welcomed to the Aghan National Police Training Center Kabul, Aghanistan. Photo by ISAF Media.

a ts sv. Pt t Ut Stts a. n pt tspubt y b pu tstt y by y s,t , u ptpy, , y -t st tv syst, wtut pss wt tpubs.

©2010 by t isttut t Stuy W.

Pubs 2010 t Ut Stts a by t isttut t

Stuy W.

1400 16t Stt nW, Sut 515 Wst, dc 20036.

ttp://www.ustw.



AFGHANISTAN REPORT 4

Haseeb Humayoon




ABOUT THE AUTHOR

hsb huy s rs ayst t t isttut t Stuy W (iSW). h yspt vpts s ast Pst, t U.S. ty v ts

ast, t pt stty t pts t suy utsuy.

P t j iSW, hsb huy w sv ast-bs pjts wt yutups, vy ts, t-ts. Juy t Sptb 2009, sv s cuts opts avs t t st t bsvs ast, t et ut ast. i Wst, m. huy s w

wt t m est isttut (mei) ast Pst s. h -ut, wtmei s d. mv Wbu, t "ittw dsts ast Pst,”

wy pt T utu ast (a. T, ., Juy 2009). m. huys pubs p yt ps t nw Y Ts pp s tt ssus t t ast Pst s su s a J es, t ntPub r, T TV, V a. h uts qut bs justs css st Wst, dc.

B kbu, m. huy stu ast Pst's Psw ty. h s B.a. pt s mbuy c s s stu U.S. Py tt a Uvsty Wst d.c. m. huy s tv uy d/s Pst, s pt Uu.

The assistance o Brett Van Ess and his eye or details has been invaluable to the development o this report. Mr. Van Ess iscurrently a graduate student at the Georgetown University School o Foreign Service. The author is also grateul to ISW interns Aman Farahi, a student at Middlebury College, and Omid Townsend, a graduate student Georgetown University. ISW Research

Manager Marisa Cochrane Sullivan and ISW Fellow James Danly assisted in editing the report.

ABOUT THE INSTITUTE

T isttut t Stuy W (iSW) s -pts, -pt, pub py st. iSW vs ust ty s tu b s,tust yss, vtv ut. W tt t pv t t’s bty t ut ty pts sp t tts t v U.S. sttbjtvs.



TaBle o conTenTS

ExEcUTIvE SUmmARy .............................................................................. 06

INTROdUcTION ........................................................................................ 09

a cttus Stt ......................................................................................09

k Ws hs cs ....................................................................... 11

cu et as .............................................................................. 13

Pwu ru mts ................................................................................ 17

U.S. dstt wt k ..................................................................... 18

St mtu ...................................................................................... 19

a m Tvs dbts.................................................................. 22

T isuy: itt dsupt ...................................................... 24

et dy................................................................................................ 26

abu k c Vty ................................................................... 27

obsv rpts t hb ctvsy ................................................ 28

rs of rsuts ............................................................................... 30

T aut Ppts ru-o ......................................................................... 31

T lst m St .................................................................................. 32

cONclUSION ........................................................................................... 34

NOTES ..................................................................................................... 36

aghaniSTan rePorT 4 | The re-elecTion o karzai | haSeeB hUmaYoon | JanUarY 2010



execUTiVe SUmmarY

KEy FINdINgS ANd REcOmmENdATIONS

Pst k s vv t svvy spstt pt, s s h

st py a pts tu t 2009 t.

Tu tsv but tvs s sw pt uvs, k sth

s up -t ss wt pp t y. k’s bt pwu y s ws t su s -t.

Tt pt pys vst k’s -t, b tsh

tt stt pt ups tt, y t t stt tvpw s ppts.

k s wt st up s w jy u•

ast tt tst t us tuss vts, u is k,g abu rs dstu, hj m muqq gu a S.

k s st s u ts wt ut t stt s pst•

v t vt. mst ptt ws t st s V Pst ds mst ms , w but ptt abu suppt pwu pt t s s.

S t pt k’s p s w u ss suss•

uus a pts— st btus tt pt ss wtt vt. Ts up us us su s mst eut gu q

W, nt dtt Suty c au S, mst it

h at, but s ut but t puby uw us su s s st, o du.

Pst k s y s pty t v s w s wth

st t t tt suppt.

T Ut Stts s st pt pt s sut t ts pss.h

T Ut Stts t ut t vv ppt tt Wst sut h•

k’s t.

abss eby’s vsts t t fs v ts u t p•

ss t p. nt t ptu suss u- by U.S. Sp

rpsttv t ast Pst, r hb, t U.S. .

dpt pssu u- sut t ts pss tt st•

as wt sv.

ast’s stt sttuts st w, but pts pt ts h

tu st t v b.

Psts t t u b t sttuts tt t us •

pts.


6www.UNdERSTANdINgwAR.ORg




execUTiVe SUmmarY

T tt uty s t ust t tsts, bts, •

uv pbts t y pt pys.

T pts t s by kbu s u t t . ot t•

u by t pt sts tu ps, , y, pttws, t t tu f sttuts tt sy b t ttt uty.

Stt sttuts t yt v t bty t v wv wv ty ust.•

Yt, t s t s u tt t a stt s b s u t suts s 2001,•

s y ust. m uty, t suts pt ts t t pt vuus. a bt ps tb pss.

Tu t tt uty s t suy’s ps ty v•

y v pss tt k t pts v t tpt tws utw kbu.

appy psv pts su s “upt,” “u,” “ws” t p uth

a pts s upu. atu ts su s upt py, w yss t t ts ust t us t vv pt s

ast.

T tsts pt ts sp stt ys, v t•

w busss wt pts t s btus, wty, ut pt ss.

V Pst ’s w wt k s j p ts y, s t•

bts t pt pps v s busss tsts.

ast’s psty-bs pt s t stbty u tt h

u pub . Su pt s s ts t t vsttpp ty.

isttuts ust vp t t pts by t psts, h

t u stutu.

Spy sts pjts s t suft t t u,•

ut utb sttuts.

dvpt t pt pts s ssy stp ts psty •

pts.

ast ust vp stt buuy tt s sufty v pt•

pw-pys t v ts w spt tsts, tvts, pss .

T tt uty ust p vp pb sttuts tt t•

vus’ pt tws, s s t vy ptt utbty vt.




FIgURE 1 - AFgHANISTAN pOlITIcAl mAp





By hsb huy

“s p t st Ju (my 22) tt y t ts. ets t w Pst s b wt 30 t 60 ys pt t t pst t.”2

dspt t stt sttuty spt, y ws vtb. h -t b my 22, 2009 qu pptsu t s wt ast, y suutb . i t, tpst t ts ast v b

yt b su. T ipt e-t css (iec)—t by ts wt -st t ts—u u t st w Juy 2009 tt t ps-t pv u ts wu b auust 20, 2009.

T iec-sp t t t t pbtw w Pst h k’s st-tuty-st t f wu p(my 22, 2009) w t ts wu b (auust 20, 2009). Qusts but wt

su pp tt t p tt sus t iec’s ut. Ts

ws spt t t t ws wy ttssv suty sttv s t iec ub t t t sttuty-sp t. Pus, s ppt t pssb tpst pty ts (s-u 2010) t sv y t.3 But

Ts pt uts ast’s pts sty vv 2009, s t -pts ty w v t wy w. a ptu us s vt t t auust -ts. T st st ps t tvsb t t t pss, t s ts, k’s bt ptt s. T s st vu-ts t t— t ts ttus—-s by y ts, t vbt pt s u t ppss. i t t pt, ts pt usttst s t t y, t su pt ut, t st t-t spss. Ts st s ss

Wst’s t pss, t p-tu tt pt pt. Ts ptus wt sssst w apts st y 2010, wt b t t u pt sttuts.

A cONTENTIOUS START

T auust 20, 2009 t ws ast’ss v t pst vt. T y utst csttut t is rpub

ast, w ws t 2004, ut 2009 ts.1 Ts csttut sts sp t pst ts. atSty-o stts tt t pst’s t

a w pt ty s vv ast, by t 2009 tpss. a Pst h k s t t vty. Tu k

b 2009 btt, t 2010 wt w v-y t. k s s b, psty-bs pw-pts t uty ss j wt. Stb ast qus ts psty p-ts t u utb sttuts. T ssst wt tt, t ttuty ust t w tu ast’s pts, btw t uss ts pt pt.





t pt’s ut t ut st ts t, t quts pstts 2009, t s t .4

T t qust t y ts 2009 ws wt su pp t k t my 22,2009. T pt t ast wv ts.5 T tt ws pt u-t s h k s ttst s t.6

ast’s csttut pvs tss t ssu p btw t t pst’s t f t -st pssb ts. abt buus stt, tptt suss pub

pty bts wu v t t vt by t c tSt.7 T pb wt ts pt ws ttt ws pty sb, v tt t c- t St, Sbtu muj, wsub t st t vt, tst bus s . ut, Ps-t k ws uy t pt stpp wb t ps, t tt uty

ws tb wt stbty t b ts.8

Wt sttut sut, Pstk’s pt ppts u tt t ps-t’s t f t my 22, 2009 ws u-sttut sst s st tt y.9 Ty s t st-t t u t t pss.10 k ssuppts, wv, u t pst u f ut t t t wsuut.11 T ut ws bs us at Sty-o tt sust stt pst’s t s “t ts.”12

i sps t psstt ppst s t stpw w t stt, buy 27, 2009, k tt tts su b ap 21, 2009 - wt t sttut.13 T iec, w-v, f ts pvus s jtt pst’s , sy tt “t iptet css, s t t,buty, suty pt s

u t t pst pvu ts t 20t auust 2009.”14

T t y ts ws ss uvs by k tt utst s

ppts. T ut ut y p-pst us uw t s t w ts yt y sus tst u st k. a s t sttuts t v t vt pvs y sp bt vt t t s,ty w t wt t y ts

wtut y ppts, pt tt k u t t p tus buy t t p.

Qusts but t ss p u

vt by k w s s y t pss. aw U hq a, w s s pst s mst buy 2009 t u st k, tt “t s ptty u ssus w ts tt Pst k ws t sty pw, w wu t v tspt -ts.”15

ast’s pt s v t ssu wt u pp t my 22,2009. S bs pt suppt

tuty k’s t ut w ts ts v t st-up. S tt pty sut t ssu wsuy, k st t sput t t Supcut. T cut u m 29, 2009tt t ws t tst t uty tpst t f ut w

ws s.16 Ts u tvy tk’s t by t ts, wu tsv s t bss s tu sty f

w t ut t auust 20, 2009t ws sput.

T Ut Stts s t cut’s u.Stt dptt sps g duu -u tt “t Ut Stts sty suppts ws ts u,” Wst’s

vw, “t tuty vt t tp b ts s vt tbuts tt stbty.”17 T Sup cut u , but t put t, t bt





v t sttutty k’s sty ft t my . du t p s-s t t ps, tttt bss,psttvs ppst ts qus-

t t ty k’s sty f.

18

KARzAI wEAKENS HIS cHAllENgERS

T t k’s t vu ts. et ys t t ust t Tb , s vb ptpty— pw ppst—s

ast. T pst s v t pty s w,* t 2004 pty ts w y su t t pt pts.19 T S n-Tsb

Vt (SnTV) t syst s t qupty t ts t b pt y pty.20 mv, t t w s tqu ts t psy t b p-sttvs y pt bs pts t.i t, t s y vu ts.Ts s t t st y stu-us st pt t p-ty pst pts.

my vus tt w y pt Pst k’s bt sst wt t

pst-2001 t t bu stt ast w s s y ts t psy.T s suss w btt ut ppst tt. Yt, t ws tt st t pt st s tps t k, s t t-s k t us t pv suty v.21 Ts , wv,u t v y u pt p t sp stutu t ppst.

ly ts s t ps sus t k’s t u: a

a J, t t st ast 2003 t 2005; zy k-

, t a-b U.S. absst iq, ast, t Ut nts;22 gu a S, t v t jst pv, n.23 e ts

, v t ys, t t tst s t a psy. mst aw-U-hq a s t bt buy 2009 t k t -.24 mst abu abu- mst as g as u t tts t u, but ws t v ss t pp t tst u.25

attpts w by y ts ust t ut s tt t tw ’ssuppt b t’s y.26 Su -ts w usussu, y ut st ps vs, bts tpsy, wt s bsvs v “uts pssu.”27 S t auust ts,ts v su t tt U.S. Sp- rpsttv ast Pstr hb tvy u svpp t u st k.28 T tut ptt ts s y t v su t bu ts. Ts u y tpt t

stu s U.S. st t y, tus tv s p stk.29 at quy t ptts t st ppst tt

ws k’s sw ttpts t sussuy v s t p s j ppts.

a t t iec’s t t tpss, t t stt p ap 25 t my 8, 2009.30 a a J zy k t st t -y, pty ppst t t u p-

tt ts t ut b tt .31

J ws qut s sy "vy s wt t w y s t t tt st."32 J's bupt t t ,spt s ut-y ts t utvt sup-pt t k, us sppttst s suppts. it s s b pttt t st k wtk pst-t ast.33

*k s u by t ppt t stt pt pts ast. Ts ppt sw t ptu tptt a sty ttpts t pt tvs pty t s t us t ap 1978 cust vut ast'ssu ssts.





gu a S, t v n y v k, s-st t k. h ut k’st V Pst a z mssu s s

u t ws t v s y.34 hwv, w b tt stt , S ws -

vt t t Pst P t wtPst k. T suss btw k S s t puby w, but Su t t t tt wu t ubt.35 my vsput but t ss S’s t, s v pst tt k vy u tt S’s ps t wuv t Pstu vt tus sv t

t.36

it s y y tt S y vs tt t tvs tu ssuppt k’s y, su s -t v pv s.37 Wt-v t s, S’s s t b k

ws st t t k’s psts t stst t .

mst a ws s s s y . h t y y pt pts t uty—tPstu t a mt pty. But ws

s spy uut by k s s, t p ut t . a’s ws ts s t u s st u. a mt’s puty k y,gu J Pp—w us t pwuipt dtt l gv(idlg) —u tt m. a’s y

ws t s by t pty.38 it ws bw w a t v.39

osy, t ws s sput buts t k wt s w b-

t—st tby by t t utst q W t t sth at.40T pt bts btts vus v sv s t bss sput utu pt sp

ast. i 2009, wv, s t tstt v, ty bt ft suppt k’s t.41

T k p us w y t-ts t vt t y bppst. T pp u pss utu s t vt, s w s uts

st sptt t Pstu vt.

42

Ty s p-ty t t s t utst t-u. W t ws tt J, k, S wu t k, t wspts t tt ty t stppw v k, wtt ubt.43 k’s p ws tv svvy pub suppt ts usby t s su s “a a Js s wt t Pst k.”44 m tw tt ts ptt s t pp ut v k

pt k s ub.

Yt spt -pt b s sptt ppts, ty-t pp stt k.45 T a csttutsp vy bs quts w uu t psy, w u t. ay vu tt s t vt , st st ty ys t t t y stt, s mus a t b

a pts, s t tsp sb t u.46 By ts b sts, u-

s tuss ( t s) asquy t u t f t pst. Tsu b tu but t systs y t uts t. But t systs t pspt pts t-pty tsts sp sv s ts st wt sts. i ast, t st ty vb pts su p t y pu st ts.

ast t ty t s, abu abu, as g a,

pt r Bsst, puty sp t pt mws Ys tty abu Jb Sbt wt w s wt s pub sttu.m t t ts t st wuw t st as. By b t us pv t ps sus ,k tvy st s up sy tst. Yt t w bt, s t





s t, ps t tt tk’s t.

csttuty, w t s t ty pt pus vt t st u t

ts t b vtus. i -t sus ty pt pus vt, su ts s qu t t t

w. W t ts tbt w s y t t k

auust 20t, u- ws st pssb.47 abu- abu ws s t b k’s stv. a w abu ws t s s y t t k, t ws p by y tt u w st pt t vts, tt, up wt t vts t t

ty pus ts u k t u-. essty, t auust 20t t ws k t w t st u, ws ppts sut t b s bw ty pt pus vt t u-.48

cRUcIAl ElEcTORAl AllIANcES

b s ws t tt kpy t su s suss t y.dspt t st y stu-tus pts, st up s ast tu t jy pputy u tt tst tus tuss vts. W tsuppt ts y vus ws pttus t ts. k t swy st, t t us ws suppt t u ptty tt t b t t pv u tu.

Ismail Khan and Herat Province

i 2004, ht pv t s sttuut vts t uty, wt v vts.49 as v, isk ws t u v s pv- ht wt tb swy t b- pvs g Bs. i t u upt t 2009 vt, ht ws y t v st

tuut vts bus tv suty. it ws s y t b pv w k’sst v abu abu t w ssuppt wt st t t Tj pput

v t pv.

50

W Pst k ut t suppt is k, k’s suppt k ws t pub ut w ws b t -t.51 it s u wt utsv is k t b k’s -y. auby, t ws t ubt’s tbty,s w s pss t t isk ht, tt t v ssut wt v.53 ev s ws utty ts t kbu u U.S. pssu, isk s b utb but t tjty ht’s suty ttpts by s vs ts s suppt t pv.54

o auust 20, 2009, k st p ht by t t pt

vts.55 W y ht’s t utus, su s t pwu b t r-us cu muw ku S t suppt k, is k’s

wt t ubt ws suy sv. as b-t st Wt Pw, st-ts b is k p y t ts. Yt tt pvs wss, is k t fs p k.52o auust 14, 2009is k y ht k, t w tt sw s pv.56 g tt auust 20t t, t vt t suppt by is k s v t kp t wt ts ty u.

Atta Mohammad Noor and Balkh Province

B s j t y pput pv w tv suty wspt t sut j vt tuut. i t2004 ts, B pv ws ty -tst. T, Pst k w t pv

wt 29.8 pt t vt.57 hs sst v,





m Yus Qu, v twty-vpt t vt, w by g ab-u rs dstu wt 23.4 pt hjm muqq wt 14.4 pt.58 Tuut

ws , wt st u u tus vts.59 i 2009, B ws s t bu. it b v s t t pv- v att m n ssuppt k’s sst v abu abu- Ju 18, 2009.60

n ws a S ms-su’s sst st t Tb. Upt ust t Tb 2001, ws t 7t cps c t ay m cty.61 h ws ppt s t v- B 2004.62 du t y ys k’s vt, u t 2004 -ts, n suppt k.63 W B ws t pwbs t Ub t g abu rs dstu's s th hj m muqq, ns bt s sts bs t pv s 2001.64 h sv u ppu f, but t s tt t ast pts ts t u ppu suppt.65

n’s suppt abu ws t st bstk’s v v. it s ut -pt tts k, s pptn t s pst s v. S k’ssuppts u t v ws vt tw by s suppt t w vt f.66 T wssput but s ptt ust by k, t msty it ttpt t s t t p stutu t pv.67 n puby w st y su vs b t s.68 n’s suppts

u tt s t suppt abu- ws t t n v gu a S’s t suppt k. ay ttpt t ust n wu v y bs, s t u v b tpt t s. n s t Tj, wS k bt Pstus. Pty,t wu s v b fut t ust n s but st bs suppt

t pv st t v sv, p, busss uty.69

a bt ts t n’s suppt abu. T v y v s t

spy s pt wt by st tt t y pwu us tt s t suppt k’s y. T wss sput tt n wt t b k’s v pst, tus ws sppt

w tt ’t pp.70 But t, u-by, ws u n’s s t s

wt abu t k’s wt n’s vs B pv: Ju k h-, t hb--is B ut v Pt pv;g abu rs dstu; hj m- muqq.71

rsuts t auust t sw tt abu- abu w t pv wt 44.2 pt t vt. k s wt 30.6 p-t. Vt tuut t pv ws t utst t uty, wt st t utus vts. k w t pv 2004, spt ppst dstu mu-qq, pps pt bus t suppt gv n. i 2009, abu’s vty t pv spt t tst vv k,muqq, dstu s b ttb-ut t n’s ts.

General Abdul Rashid Dostum and Northwestern Aghanistan

ast’s Tu pput, py Ubs Tus, w s y t t twst pts t uty s-t t sttuy. i t 2004 -ts, t t Ub t g ab-

u rs dstu st Pst k w t pt vts (v 800,000 vts tt).72 mst ts vts pvs wt Tu pputs: Jj,yb, Spu, T, B.73 cuty,g dstu s t c St t t c- c ast’s a s,Pst k. h s s t t p-t t Jubs--m is ast.





Bs t 2004 suts, b stts, t Ub ws pv t v j pt bs st t t Tupput.

v y b t 2009 t, dstuv Tuy t u pubssut s t Tu ab B.74 g dstu b t s w s s t utuvt tu s vts. hs pty,

Jubs--m, ps vts t t- pvs, pv t b wt s vts tu t k’s v abu.75

abu’s b, att m n v t ys t s pwbs tt t t ps Jubs hb--W-t, t h pty (t t -w st.) it ws y tt Jubs ssu s S nu St S k t s pptuty t t pty’s bs, uby ut t vn’s ssv st.

cu t k’s u w t 2009t t st u ws -pt g- dstu hj m muqq, t t t h hb--Wt. i2004, dstu’s muqq’s vts utt t twty pt t tt.76 k

w t 2004 t wt ty-v pt t vt, spt s bt muqq dstu. g dstu's hj mu-qq’s suppt 2009 ws s s t y tut y ss pputy tt kt v su s tt bs. Ttwty pt t vts t dstu-muqq ps ust v b sut vty t st u.

T w s t t k-dstu -, y u t t pst’s bty tv U.S. fs tt dstu t tu .77 T U.S. bjt t dstu’s -tu y us, u pts tt st ws vv t ss tuss Tb pss 2001.78 evtuy, kt s wy dstu tu b t -t st p t.79 W us

w p kbu tt dstu ws s swt s suppt t abu, dstu -tvy s bs k.80 o auust 20,2009, Jubs v wt k b

. k w t jty vts yb, Juj, Spu pvs, w dstu t k 2004.81 dstu spty s py st

vts k t u tst Bpv.

S k’s s, s tt wt isk g dstu y t v-s. T w t s tt tv auust 20t, us us s tt pp. mst tby st t

ws k’s wt t hj mmuqq t h t t asy n.

Haji Mohammad Muhaqiq and Aghanistan’s Central Highlands

a b t pt th t , muqq ws t t 2004 ts w st

vts, 11.7 pt t tt.82 muqq wspv t v suppt st hs a-

st’s t s: By d-u pvs, s w s t h-pputstts W g pvs. h wss s s u t vts s pv B, kbu’s st st h pput.83

B t 2009 ts, muqq’s hb-- Wt wt g dstu’s Jubs--m pty t stt t b- pst wt t pst ts. T

Jubs-Wt t t v

twty pt vts tw.84

k t ut muqq’s suppt.T Wt puby tt k ps s t t t svsts, pvs, bsss up st.85 muqq s tt k t t sttus tw t h- stts Pstu t g





W pvs t w pvs.86

W t k p b vy muqq’s ptt t w t st t pt vts, muqq y sppt t

auust 20t. ct r Bsst, pt h t , y vts wu-b muqq suppts.87 Bsst ppust p, ws ty t w vst st vy pv t uty. o t y t vt, spt tsuppt k v muqq tpt t h s u VPst k, Bsst t k vy j h pput t uty,

wt t pt By pv, w st t k by ss t pt.88 d-u pv t t h stts g W w w by Bsst

wt ub-t s v k.89

Bsst vty st t t hs ts tw pssb ts: t a-st’s hs swy by ts t v w su s muqq k, — y—ty w vt

wv t bt s h. i 2004, mu-qq ws t h t bt, ty vt . i 2009, Bsst ws t tu tty ws t t t.

muqq’s suppts y t v butk st s vts B pv. Ytubs sust tt muqq’s k’stty pt B ust v b .i 2004, muqq w ut pt t

vt B. i 2009, Bsst vv pt t vt t. it u bu tt st muqq’s vts vt Bsst. i B, t s vts k w p t s ty 2004 b sty ttbut t t suppt gdstu t t muqq.

The Arsalai Family and Nangarhar Province

g t t 2009 ts, n wspt t b tst by sv t Ps-tu ts. it ws st pv

utp ss. mst ptty, t ws t y tvy su ty Pstu pv-s w vt tuut ws y t b .90 Sv k s w pt t

s t n, u as g a mws Ys— pt w s t pv. ity, ty t k’s pspts t pv- hj By as, t bt s t-Svt J s abu hq hj Q ( t as y). T y abu hq hj Q ws pv ty ppu suppt t pv, b tt t st pty sut k’s ppt- t bts—hj d m—s s t p .91

T pptt n, hj d m-, s k’s t p s tstt t t pt t ubttt t t pv. k, Pstu t sut ast, y v s u-t tt st Pstu wu b sbs. But ut ts suppt t p.P t t stt t p ss (Ju16-auust 16, 2009), k s vtu tf w ws t pw hj dm.92 T s t vt t-

susy st k’s tt . d m v bb k t s s p-w, but t t t s t ppt-t d m s t p b sus qusts.93

Tu d m’s y ws pvt b pwu ppu t pv, btppts tu ut t b qustb st p vv. at pw dm, hj Q’s s hj z,

tu t n p pst t ast t p k. i v s t k p’s stust hj d m’s hj z’s vt bts t pv, s tpst’s s tt t tu v t as y— t hj z gs—b t n Psw.





hj z ws us by t as y vvt t u t bt V Pst hj Q 2002.94 z s t ku stt

n, s tu ws t t y ssuppts b k.95 W ts t wtsst t ass, vtuy k t v bt pts tt ty wquy . k’s suppts t pstts s t suss t ’s tt ss.

i n, pt t p stututt pp hj z thj z, k’s t u b t pv u, s w s sv tpps t uts u t pv.ot ts s tt nt pv vt utts—u t v gu a S—vy pystt sus suppt k.96 abu-’s suppt t pv us su s t t Ps pt t-Tb u hjht a.

o auust 20, 2009, k w nby v svty-v pt t vt, sst s vts ts pv.97 its t pjt s u w k

wu v st n. But t t b gu a S’s t pv s stt v, t k p’s stut ts t suppt hj d m-’s hj z’s ts wt t s,k y v sus .

apt t bv v pw ts, t sv t us t uty ws sup-pt ws ty u. i , k t ut st t, t ty by ps su s s v pst . S k’s s, s tt hjm muqq hj d m,tu ut t v qustb tts. ov, wv, k’s py - s t b wt b s s ppts t sus pt pw ts ut us.

pOwERFUl RUNNINg mATES

at Sty ast’s csttut -qus t t tw u ts.h k pt s V Pst

ds mst ms (2001-2004), t p s st v pst zmssu. But k pt V Pst kk, t h t , s st u t. k’s wstvs, ut s upputy wtt tt uty pts a sty.98 k, wv, ws svvy st s t but ptt sup-pt s ppt abu abu ut pt t s s. o st pt k’s tu t wt ws . ’s bt hj Y-s k’s bt mu ptt v s ts, tt t y’s s w j tbutst k’s p .99

T st s u t ss k’s p t-t pssus, w t tt wttt, tu t tv. abut s , k s t “ws s tt i t t uty, t uty t uty, t stt ast,

w t s vt tt s a tu uts.”100

k’s s u t, k, wst spt s u t w v s stt Bs W pv bt2004 , utty, t st u 2009ts.101 T us ptt kk, wv, ws ssv s s bt hjnb s s j -stt busss- t uty. 102 hj nb s s s wtvs stt, w s sus ptutty. 103

abu’s as g’s u tsts wt y ut. i t tpjt ty t tt k—w pt tw u ts wt -t sp bus—abu sthuyu S as, t Pstu,





pt, b t st y y ast. Yt, as t pssss y jpt bs t uty. i 2004, ws t t psy y 0.3

pt t vts.

104

abu s s d.c a c, t h pys w sttut kbu. c- ws pt w, t pst t Bsst, k, muqq, y k’s t s st a-st’s hs. Tus, abu’s u tsbut tt pt wt t s tt.

abu’s y, wv, v ptbst w t nt t (n) tt ws t t.105 T n s ty pt bs t pt,ps bt t-Svt sst ust- s.106

abu u tt w t n’ssuppt but tt ws t t s pt t.107 dspt ts ,

abu’s p stutu ps ws y t by us su n spsps S.

T n st abu ws t j squ, st bus t wsy tu t k st ms s s u t. ms wsby y uts t st pwu t n.108 k’s st ws -u, t ut t t n’s t suppt abu-. ev u bts s t t n, ms jtt suppt abu ttptt v t t t y wt k.109 at-tt wy t n w up tt ws ss y t suppt k wt

abu’s ps t . T n’s tut u, pst Bu-u-d rbb, ws s y t b uppy

wt—st t ts—t s ss--w v pst a zmssu k’s t tt.

U.S. dISENcHANTmENT wITH KARzAI

i t u up t t 2004 pst ts,k ws y t “U.S. b t.”110 i t 2009 t, ts ws t t b t s.

T ob astt’s sstst wtt p t ubt k ws t vt.

du t 2008 U.S. pst p,t-t ob usy tt “t k vt s t tt ut t bu.”111 W k jy sts wt Pst Bus, u wy

v s, Juy 2009 tpt ast, U.S. V Pst-et JB v ss t t a

pst tt “t s t b t.”112 o f, ppt pt t -w ob’s t t. h ut t wy

v s wt k, t st tPst ob k ws u wst s uut.113 ut, Pstob’s Sp rpsttv t ast Pst, r hb, pvusy pub ts py t Ps-t k, u ust “ps just.”114

Wst’s vt stt wt Pstk y ptt ts t bvt U.S. t b p t s tt- t t ppst tt. oy t, gu a S, sp us w Pst ob t psvtt t tt s uut.115 Ss y tt ws t st a t t ob w t t-sttv t ast Juy 2008. o S’s vss v “t ob vsts wt stt” S’s pst b-ts.116

i v t t pt t -t t t U.S., t m 2009, absshb st t abss t Su,Tty cy, t t t t U.S. e-bssy kbu ts wt vs t tpss.117





T Ut Stts puby py wby t wu t v t tt t wu w wt wv wst.118 dspt U.S. ssus, t ws

t y as, v j pts, t bv tt t Ut Stts tv t t tst. Pst k’sp ws v Wst ts -t, tt t ws’t k.119 m tpts sust U.S. fs u s k’s s, spt t stt U.S. py t suppt pps y t.120

du t p ss, U.S. absst ast, k eby, vsts tt fs t t pv sus -s t k: as g a, abu

abu, mws Ys.121 i ts vsts, abss eby pss ss t ts.122 T U.S. ebssy u tt ts stus w s t -t tt t U.S. vts t . Ts ts w s vt t U.S. ebssy ts wt vst css ts s fs su s abss rhb nt Suty avs g

Js Js.123 dspt s by Wst t ebssy kbu tt t U.S. y -

vts t , y ts ty pt t a ts. mws Ys abu abu pt pts t ts wt abss r h-b abss k eby tp pps wbsts.124 as gv ppt dt sttst Js c-

v s s vs, uby t ustt s ts wt Wst.125

Stv t wt t tppst ts st k's s tt

t Ut Stts p t s s t.126

T ts btw U.S. fs -ts su s as g mws Yss wt k’s ts t p tt s s. it ws k’s tst t tvs t , s t ps y t bt pst tv s tt t -ts t v t s u. T y tt t k’s t ws t pssbty

u- subsqut s btws ppts. T U.S. bssy’s tts

wt ppst ts up wt b t k p tt t U.S. ws st ,

ut t tt u- t ws tst stp p t t .

at abss eby’s vsts t vts, k’s vt w wy t U.S. tts t t pts

ast. T Pst’s spsps t abss’s vsts “t t.”127 k s puby bjt t t e-by-abu pss .128 h t

abu s t ssu a-st’s pst syst t pty syst w stt s t U.S. abs-s. 129 k s pss s tts abss eby t t abu’s ppst t t syst, tu b tpt tt abu’s ppst U.S. suppt.130 T ubt ttt “ty sstv.”131T k v-t’s ts t abss eby’s

vsts s t stust stt U.S. ut-ty t .

dspt ts s v U.S. tts,k s p s pjt tt

ws t tu t tt -uty, spy t U.S., s st- t .132 k pusu tsstty pps bus s a vts wy t b but t y -t tt ty bv y t b suppt by t tt uty.133

SHIFTINg mOmENTUm

as t p pss vv, t tp -

ps ts spy bt tuty, spt t t tt t 2009pst t ws y t s su vt ast. W t bt fy u v t pp, t w t btt btw abu abu- k by t t t f pp b Ju 16, 2009. Ts tst





but t t t wt b v v t pst ys, us tt wsp by k’s p. a suss wt s w, u b t

utu, by ts su s abu as g ws s t t -p p.

k vy tt s - vts. hs p pt ut p s pw s, wt -ptvy ss us pp ty t tpput. as ustt pvusy, by t tt p ss v, k y but sussu s tt t sup-pt y t st ut t s, t s s t vt. hs ppts su s as gt t tu s t s t pss tu t, us- k “ut ” t utu v-t.134 k’s p sp t suts by u tt k wt t ty-usv ptsp wt jpt us t uty.135

S t pt k’s ps w u ss suss uus a pts. T pst t-y- t ast s t st btus up tts s pt t vt. Ty pt ss tt

ws y stt b 2001, -by w-su v s. W t ty ut, y t s bu b y py by tt -ts b pt s tvsts t1990s. i ts up t w us sus mst eut gu q W,mst it h at, t t

nt dtt Suty au S, c St o du. Ts up ss b by s t us ts v vt fs wv b tu t s but pttws. n s bs ts wv ut t vt t suppt y k’s s. i t, y t w by t pspts t w pt-

utu t py y s k’s tt.

my f psts v pub -p. s su s at W,

ts ws pps ut s tt t wupv ts us stt sus ts v. St, sv ss, ts f psts pp t v s-ty ssst t k p t. q

W ts w pty stut vs k’s b t t, ts ss pts uby t bb k’s p.136S t, su s t pwu t t i-pt dtt l gv, JPp, st k’s p, sptb s s t ts ( Pp'ss as g).137 T t pss vb ts t vt buu-y tt b tv—su s v kst pv, as J,138 t v Pt pv, akpw.139

i t t y ts w ptuus, t pptt , t tt hj d m, sk’s p ws pps t tsu tt t p psttv

w u wt tt s t pvs. d m ssst sv ut vs sts su s assu k. Pt t d m p, k’s bt mu ws tt tt ws sts v tt t f p stutu. muk ws ut t suppt st bs ast’s cb

c iusts, s us t pst’s p.140

abu abu’s t ws u wt t tuss st s suppts,but t pt wt k’s -y. mst s suppt wt n’ssp s ssts t nt- a. abu’s p ,





abu Stt mu, ws t v kps pv w k t v tvw t Newsweek 2007 - t ws “vuu utty pts

t uty.”

141

ls su s pstBu-u-d rbb w s ut t abu tt. hwv, t tt pts abu’s p w t

yu t s t nt a a S mssu. mssu’sbt a W, s muu- m S m rst pyy s abu’s t.142

abu b s p wt j us t . hs p su us t t pst abu s t vt k t t k’s pby us s vt upt st t pub.143 du t fp ss, abu s u-us tps u t uty s y pvs. at vy y, s ppu v ps ptu t tuss s suppts; ts ps y tst wt s ast. abus v sps Pst t p s ppby s tt d-sp bs.144

abu’s p ts w y v-tv Pst ob’s 2008 p. hspsts quty spy t ws “p” “.” o abu’s sss :“i s yu t bv, t y y bty t b but ssy p ubv uty, ast, but i s s

yu t bv yu w ptt t tus sty.”145 Ts ws st w--

w p t ss Pst ob’s2008 p ys wbst.146

T st abu ps ws t- t a v syst ps-t t pty, t t pst pty systs.147 Tsqu j t t t sttut, pss tt qus csttutly J. abu s ps t tsttut t w t t pv

vs, s pps t t pptt by tt vt.148 atu ts ppss w y stt, abu’s p t pst p vt t

p pss qu t t ast’scsttut t sttuty-tpst syst v.

atu abu t t st s t b stt qutsps Pst, t ws u t -p tt abu’s tt stbs ws st ast’s d-sp Tj pput tt vs sty t,t, wst pts t uty. Tss w s su tus w p-

jt t v vt tuut ty. T b tt tuut wu b s abu’s tt suppt bs w t Pstu-t s sut st ast u b s s t s tt abu’s p. Ytts s w s subjt t sus tst by k s s.

k’s p t t wt -s , pps y bs tssupt tt t w

w v k’s t sttu s bty t bu s pwu . T pstss tt y as wu s tut t t s vs, u ttt pvus t ys u k bt bst tt st pts t uty s s.149 k s suppts quty qut sttsts ustt w y pp ss w y s w s b but u k’s sp.150

at y t k’s p ws sstu ppst t s t uppu

tts us by ty s, su sjuus tts t us vy sut v suts.

dspt k's tu sttus, abu’svs y t p p k’s p.151i sps, t kp pt stty ty abu t tuppu ast’s v w t







ws s w t ast’s yu tsyst. a, sp by t U.S. 2008 i 2009 bts, sv s su pts t ts. my t

bts w py , t ts, ttt by t ts—k, abu-, v as g. But t st tw -bts w st ast’s tvpt. o Ju 24, 2009, Tolo TV st bt t w ty vt k, abu- g. W k us t t pt,t ’s pus p pty pu

w k wu v st stty t u tt ty s t ptpt. abu g t suss, v t tt bt

t w u st k t t t.162

k’s p tt Tolo TV ws bsst t.163 Ty s tt ty

wu t t pt y bt tt s utts s pps t v vy t—u ty st ts—t t pst t pts.164Su st

ws wt k’s ppt pstty t v tt g abu- t st t ty ts, s

w w s b tt sst y abu’s g’s b wt t ws sut.

evtuy, k t pt bt. hsp pps t bt t b btw t u ts—s t Tolo suvy sw tt t t

w u ts—k, abu-, Bsst, g.165 T bt wst y tt ws t bst t, t b -st by t stt u Radio Television

Aghanistan t U.S.-u Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty. St u t vy st w tp p, k, g, Bssttt.166 abu jt t vtt, su-st st ut tp t t pvs,but ts s p tt wt t ptk’s us t bt y t Tolo TV .167

at tb v u t ppss ws t suss t

w pts sty. ast -ts vs stts t ut t vt-

s, spy t tp u ts. Ty s tw- sty ts wt wtvsts vts.168 my ts, u

abu k, st w psttvst t sws pub susss. T ws sv tv v sty ts t b vts. mst pt st tstvs ws t “v m W Vt c-p,” t u by tw wts tvsts.169 Tw ts w s t bt, t r Bsst wt v pst . u-

t, tvs s btsbtw ts spy us tps w ts. dspt tsts, ts t suss wts qut— u t ptpt t pss ws pt by tsuty ts t uty.170

e, abu, as g, Bsst vsw k's ps t.171 Yt u t t ws bt t y, k b vsb

pub. hs s pub ps,up wt t t abu’stu by t ut s p ’ssp sttt t The National, stbsk s t tu t .

Ts st tu tws k b t uy p tp t tt y t t pv B

auust 1, 2009.172 atu t a-st ws s t b abu’s ttbs, k’s y t pv, t is

S msu n, ttt w tt w us t t t y st ub ts tuss.173 k stu t t s vts bu s, s t ub stuts ss uvsts, s t ut y t tsv.174 Sv t s w s t p ss t t ys b t





t p ss, u s ht,Pt kbu. Ty w wy tt, t k p’s stutu ptt pt tvs vy v s t k’s tu pputy.

dspt t s tu, t st p- ps s b t auust ts su-st tt k’s s vt u- t . a p ut btw Juy 16 Juy 26, 2009 by t itt rpub- isttut (iri), s w bt ts, sw k ty-u p-t t vt, y s -s, but t st s pts bw vty t stu.175 Ts p, wv, ws ut b- k’s pub s b, b t t abu by s p ’ssttt, k p’s ptt t by ty abu t t 1990s v w.

By t t t p p u, t spy ps v pt tu-ty ast. a vt wss t vts s 2001 ws t. opp-

tuts squ w puby t. Tps tts w w.ov, t pub buy- t t ptpss ws su, spt t sv suty

s.

THE INSURgENcy: INTImIdATION ANd

dISRUpTION

it ws pt tt suts wu ttptt supt t ts. Tb s

w as st vt 2004, but tt t y, ty t v sus pt pss.176 at tt t, ty w w pp tu. i 2009, wv,t suy ws t ts stst s 2001.

T sut tt t t 2009 ts wsu sus, pty bus suts ss t swts tty -s ast. i ap 2009, t msty it t stts (ut 364f stts) s pty u sutt, u u ty stts

gRApH 1 - SEcURITy TRENdS





s tst.177 h ts st sut sut tvty ws sy t-ps.

Wt tt ttt us t

t, y py pts st tsut, t suts s tt stst t vt. Ty s sttt Juy 30,2009 t ts “v a- p” tt “ uj [suts]su sty us ts pss … st t y’s bss stp pp t pt t t.”178

Vt tt t supt -sttv ppts t ts w pt t suts' p u t su.

iec pys w pp tt sv ss. 179 du t vt st-t pss, t suts s t v -t t tt ps wt tiec su, s ty ssu t tts stt iec u vt stt ps. is pts t uty, ty wt u -t tuss vt stt s t pput.180 Ty s pps t ty pp ss t ps t y t

us t s t ss, su s pss p pts. m y, tttts w bv t v u ptpt t pss.181

du t p ss (Ju 16-auust 16,2009), t bty ws y pby suty s. T st p t

ws t tt k’s u t ms’s p vy t t pv- kuu. abu st tw s p-

v p s kps lpvs t v, tu t s t s-tus wt ty w by suts t us.182 dspt t suty s, ttp v ts (k, abu, Bsst,

as g mws Ys) svj s vst pvs su s k- Pt, pts w w s tb susy tst by t suts.

T w s ttpts by vt fs ts t s wt pts t suy buy t ts t tst pts sut st

ast. cs t t ts, t ws -u tt k pv, k’s

gRApH 2 - vOTER TURNOUT





bt a W su st s t wt suts ty.183 hwv, s auust 20, 2009 ,tt s. lts w stbut

y pts t uty, tt tts w st t t-t sttuts v kbu.184 a hb--is hty t ttut W pv b t ts:

Muslim compatriots: the conscience o the zealous Aghan Muslimdoes not allow it to ignore the merciless assault o the enemy on hisreligion, land and chastity and take part in the ridiculous drama o elections, and involve himsel in the crime o shedding the blood o thousands o compatriots and assaulting the chastity o thousandso Aghan girls. It is incumbent upon you to, by boycotting theseelections, reject involvement with this crime and protect yoursel rom the dangers associated with it.

Salah-u-din Ayuibi Front, Hizb-e-Islami Aghanistan185

o auust 18, 2009, ast’s ntSuty cu msty ssu

tv s utts t v v v t y.186 T tv ws t wt sps. it ws tpt s tt vt’s tpt sus suty

ts t y, ttpt t tt sut tts by y t t v ty s. ot s, su s t tt t tv wu t vuu pub t tus put vs ts u t vt y w s s. T

w s qusts but w t vt’stv ws t pss .187

ElEcTION dAy

o t y t t, vt kbu p-p t v stt y. Pst k

vt p t t a h S,jt t t p, as tbv sut tts vt.188 abu

abu s w vt t kt Pw kbu, w vs. T pss st b w y bv tt t vt

wu b sw sv st suttts. Yt sw st pts t u-ty, suty ts t y us t y st pt t vt. isuts

st t ss t tts p ts, spy t Sut est ast.189 mst t ttsu btw t y us 6 9, t t suts tpt tuut b t ps v p.190 Ts tts, up wt p tt,u vt ptpt.

rts s t wp suts -t y s utpt. T puts t y u sv bts suty pv py by a s, wt b-up t itt Suty assst (iSa).191 as, t pt pv-s, ty t t sts ws vy u pp w s by t tts bt t sts. gv t suty sus,t suts wy s t p sst wy t sts, yt st ussupt by u ts.

FIgURE 3 - A NIgHT lETTER cIRcUlATEd INwARdAK pROvIcE





l pt t sut tvty wsub s y utts b t by t vt t t v vt ts.192 mst w t vt’s -

tv, wt w pts, su s t Pjw wsw sv.193 Ut t -t, t t vt us, j TV s us t wsp pb b pus qu t vts, vt tuut, ts v j ts st tbts. oy y t t aTV s b t pt ts v-.194 , wv, ws pbut pt suty ts. BBC Online, p, v ty t t,

w BBC justs t ysts pt suty ts bt t pt

v vt tuut.195 St, t stts t v wss w w-sp t tts w. Subsqut vtpts t uy twty vs

a suty s w t y, u ty w wu. 196

Sv sus w t u t 2009 vtt t uts u.197 T st wst us b t vt’s

t t utp vt ttpts.198

is pts t uty 2004, pts -t tt b ws sy vb.199 du t 2009 vt, y vts t t tstt s ty w w t 2004 tv-sy—pps wt t tt t t vt utpts, spy t s tt t ws u quty ts t u.200 du- t us, t w s tt t ws t b. W t iec t t t ssu, t t pub y t y tt t t bty t su t ws-

. gy, t 2009 ws t ssus t b 2004, spt s pts tsspp t ws.201

Yt t v pbt ssuts u ty pp w vt, tus pus t. i pt t u- t t y, suts ut tw vts by t b k

pv’s ab stt.202

et bsvs w s py t -t t pss. i tt, t w st ttus st bsvs u

t uty. T et u-t ast (ea), t stbsv up, py v 7,000 ppss pvs, tu t v vp pv bs ppts suty.203 i t t ts st bsv ps-, t w uy t u bsvs pst t vt.

T Ut Stts sps u bsv s-ss, by t nt dt isttut(ndi), t itt rpub isttut

(iri), dy itt (di), t as ntw ets (anrel).204 at st tw t U.S.-bs sttuts, iri ndi s spt ts s tbsv t ts.205 T eup Uet obsvt mss (eUeom) sst- u sty bsvs ysts.206 Ttt bsvs y - suty vt, st ss, tss vt w t u t suty s.

ABdUllAH ANd KARzAI clAIm

vIcTORy

i t t w t t, t pst ut py suts wsuw t t ws utty.

Up pt t vt, t pu p qu tt vts wu b ut -s t p ts tt t suts wub pub by spy py t suts

st uts vy p stt.207

T sutsst wu t b st t kbu, w t wub t wt t tus u tuty. 208 at st t psttvp p t u s v py tsuts st.209 Bs t u t,py suts w pt t b sbtw Sptb 2 16, 2009. a t t ty pu, t suts w t b





by Sptb 17, 2009, u- t st tt y su t b ssy. 210But

just twty-u us t ps p, btt k abu ps v-

ty.

211

o auust 21, 2009, k’s p hj d m puby stt tt “uus sw tt w v u vts t w, s s u vt.”212 abu-’s p spsps, S,ut d m’s by u tt t us sw abu vsty-tw pt t vt.213 T iec quy sp tt t ws tu, tty t iec u s f suts.214 Tssttt t stp psttvs -ts vty—s k’s st, o zw t up ju-sts t s auust 25, 2009 tt k w t wt sty-t pt t

vt. 215

OBSERvER REpORTS ANd THE

HOlBROOKE cONTROvERSy

T y t t t ws t. nt y bus bt ps vty, but s

bus t U.S. Sp rpsttv t a-st Pst, r hb, ttus t wt Pst k.216

W u sput pssts but t tps suss t t t, subsqut -ts t vt—u by hbs tt t t ts t WashingtonPost — tt hb suss t s-u vt. 217 T sust wst w-v by Pst k, w wsv tt w t vt ws - tt t U.S. t t y tt

vty. 218

T U.S. sw s u (u-) ts su tt u “su ty” t w vt.219 Yt t ssupt tt s u vt wu bstw ty wspy w,220 ptuy s st as

w but t ut t t

pss, p t t utty tt t t pss us.221 T s- u ws y t pu t s suts,s t ws b t tt k ws

t y t w t.

222

W t ws t y t ust wt t a pub s,t ws s uty pbt t s tssu s u tt y t pss,spy v tt t y sttts ssu by tt bsvs auust 22, 2009 wutus but pstv.223

a t tt bsv ups, wt tpt iri, ssu sttts tw ys tt vt. ndi ssu sttt sy “spts t 2009 ts w wtt pps…t ts, wv,s vv sus ws tt ust b ss t bu t t t-ty utu ts.”224 T eUeom -t t t , but t spt t uty u t v t-t.225 T sttt t tt “w sy t s vty, vty t a pp.”226 iri ssu sttt t pvus y,

auust 21, 2009 sy, “ututy, sussus s w tuut, u bus sttsus but ts ts t w st-

t t 2004 2005 a tsbsv by iri. nvtss, v ast’susts, bs wt iri bsvs

wtss t st t t v pts tts, t pss s s b b.”227 iri s t tt t w “w-t,y tvt t fs t p st-ts.”228

T st bsv up, ea, vt t tu t vt tv u uts. T sttt

ppu t ts suty s jb spt t s, but tt pssby sstus pt tt suty y v t vt.229 ea bsv tt tpss ws by “ ptty” iec st, tt ts st t bss t pss t b s- b.230 ea psttvs, s w stt bsv sss, stt tt t





t pss t t y,but tt t sstv u ps ty ty t suts ws y t t bty t pss.231 ea, t tt

bsv ups, t t pss s w vty t a pp sttts tt by suts, ttt ws t tt as wt tsttut y ast.232

W ea’s v ws t uvs u tsuty s, tt bsvs v t ptu wt pp t y. g cw dy it-t, ws up sty-tw bsvs, auust 24, 2009, tt “ w ’tv ss t sp t pb w’t v ss t s pb…ww s tt w s w Wsy [ty b t t] t t s pp s ps t t ut vt.”233

Tt t, di’s pst-t sttt p-s t t tt t ws t y t t wtt t ws b t.234 W di b utus t sttts qu juts, qusts ju uts s su putt tt bsvs fut

pst.

o auust 23, 2009, abu pss - w tt k us t

a stt pptus t “” t ts. 235 h b k ty t u-ts u, u tt t pp “us ys s sp.”236 ny sut-usy, mb Pt kpv w suppt abu, misq, us t Tolo TV ’s t sss "itbt 88" t j u k-

. isq tt w y w t t t vt bus suty, vts wst st t s.237 ts pt ,t u j uts y -s, spt t k p’s ttptst jt su s b t s sptttpts by t t’s ss. 238

T pub bt v u uts

wy t-p t. abu’sp us t k p bt stu- t y su Pstu s tuty, sut sutst a-

st.

239

k’s suppts ts s tt by s ts, tt t vts w b sspt.240 du s ts s, u Pt y Sptb, ptpts w tt - pssu t u- vt, ty wu tptpt.241 Tvs stts - us t subjt u, btps uus sps s ut-s.242 itt ws sus t subjt u uts,

w t v pp syptt t

abu’s s. Ts t k -p. W o, k’s p sps-ps, tt “ts s ut pp- w tt s u t pss tecc [t et cpt css] by bypss t sttuts t ut p.”243

T v tt utts tt t bts pss b-st stts. T w sv vs wt sp tvs p t t

pss, itbt 88, wu b us wttt utts, The Washington Post,The Times o London, The New York Times wt butu uts. The New York Times pt Sptb 1, 2009 tt s t Btb k pv tt uy 23,000 vts w t s st k.244 l tvs ps us ts subjt, wt t p-k sttss tt “t,” t p-abu s us sts sus t The New York Times t bst t

s.245

i u ts bt, abu’spsttvs w t sv by u ws tt by k, ws k’ss w p t sv tu-usy su s.246 ots

wsp upt, s s suppts as g tt bt abu’s k’s ps tt u. 247





k’s suppts sy tpttt ts, ptuy t U.S.,s bt y t vty. Tsppt ws u by t hb’s

ts t wt Pst k t sub-squt us t tt pss u uts tt st usvy k. T ts tsp btw tubt’s vt t ps- t uty y s t tt t w t vt. sv vs tt auust 20t t t tu sus u, t stt tvs tw,r Tvs ast, bst qutsts w t w pvusy uwtts uusy tt t

su pbs pt stbty tuty ws “s.”248

RElEASE OF OFFIcIAl RESUlTS

i ts tubut pst-t vt, tiec t u py suts ts, stt auust 25, 2009. g t auust 20t, iec bsvstt t suts wu b u y wt ws ty psttv ty vts

ut.

249

Ts ws bus sppttub vts pv tu t pbt suts pubspss. T t pt suts u auust 25, 2009 sw s , wtk t 40.6 pt abu t 38.7pt t ty.250 But s ut suts wu—st y t v ’ tv t t kbu ittt ht—tp btw t ts w, wt ksu t s t vts.251

T suts st t vts st wu auust 29, 2009, k wt ty-s pt t vt, pt abu’s tty- pt.252 as k’s w, s abu’s psttvs tvs ps tt t iec ws t ut t sutst pp t pub t vtu -t tt k’s ty v bv t ty

pt pus vt qu vty.253

T iec sp by tyss t pv t vts sust tt t ptt abu

sts b ut , pty ut t pty ss t t pt, wt vts w t.254

as t suts , ts u uts s tu t su. oSptb 2, 2009, t et cptscss (ecc), U.n. a-st ss ts wt vstt jut pts, u tt ty v 2,654 pts but u uts t pss. Ts u upts bt t pst ts pv u ts, w w uty. 255

o Sptb 8, 2009, t iec upy suts sust k w.256 T t-y vsy t sssst

a S mssu, t t-Tb sst by a Q Sptb 9, 2001,

ws t y t t iec u suts tt k bv t qu ty ptpus vt.257 S abu’s suppts wsy sst wt mssu s pus mssu’s , t ws tt -suts u b s vsy t t v stts t vsy s. Yt, mssu’s vsy wt

wtut y st suty ts pubstts, wt t pt vys us by bt abu ktt tv u kbu.

o Sptb 16, 2009, t y tt t tpss qu t s t suts,t iec y u t py suts t vts st t t.258 Bs tiec’s ubs, k w 54.6 pt

abu su 27.8 pt t vt. 259 Ts ubs w st subjt t t ecc ju-t pss. T eup U’s bsvt ppt t ut tsuts by pss w ty tt 1.5 t vts ut w





“suspus.”260 Pst k t eU “spsb,”261 s p ssu sttt sy: “h k’s t -p t bvs ty’s ut t

ub suspt vts by t puty eU t t ss spt, spsb tt wt

ast’s sttut.”262

T eUeom s ut ts wt wsb pub sput btw k t tt ts ast.T bpy t eUeom t’s t p ssu s wt k’sp tt t tt uty ws

w st . eUeom t g Ppp m ws sy sst

wt abu, s wtt b ms-su ws s wt t mssu u-t, t abu s vs

W mssu .263

Just s t tvsy suu t eUsttts t , s s tUt nts assst mss ast(Unama) v w t pp t ts u s su. B t Sptb 8,2009 ut suts v k t ty pt t vt, t Unama puty Pt gbt ttpt tb t ut, Sptb 16,2009, ws tpy v b-us s st wt Unama ke.264 ity t ws pt tt t v

ws ut bus gbt vt pub tsv by t Un vstt s u, w k evu.265 lt pts, u db17, 2009 New York Times t, sust gbt bt tts—su s s-

tt p t p k.266

gbt ws by Un Sty g B k m Sptb 30, 2009.267 w gbt’sptu kbu, tu t tpuby but t tt u u tt.268 hs pub sttts stpt tt py s pubtttu tws t ts.269

T ecc b t jut pss p-ty vt. T v-bss ws st by t Un-pptbs— c, a,

dut t— tw as. T aSup cut t py,muw must B, t astipt hu rts css t t, css h-, s bs ecc.270 abu abupss t ecc stt us.271 T kp jt s u, tu ty ty w t ut pss, ty w -sy wy t ecc’s w.272 du tt pss, t b bvus tt tubt s sb u v

t iec. T ecc, by vtu ts p-st, ws y t b sstt t y suu. T ecc b ut ts utst t bp t eUeom’s sttt v 1.5 vts w uut, s

w s t tvsy suu gbt’ssss.

THE AUdIT pROmpTS A RUN-OFF

Up t t ut pss, t

ub u uty-t -pts v t uty s tst t tus.273 Ts ptsps bt t pst pvu vts. T ecc Sptb8, 2009 tt t 700 t ptst v w “cty a”; tt s, tu tt u t t py sut su by t iec. T ss -t tt u 3,377 p ts wsuspt.274 T stts, qut st-, t bty w t st t

ss t p t ecc t pt sp pp t t ut.275 U ts t,t ss ut t pt, sp t suspt p ts.276

as t b y tt t suts tut wu b uvb t k, muwmust B, t ecc’s a -bs, s otb 12, 2009.277 B,





w b ppt by t Sup cut ws pty wt k, “ t” t pss s t s s ptu.278 T pub s pst

by B ws uus, s y wb tt t ecc pss, w tby a w, ws tss us a tt ts. T ecc uts spptt wt B’s st,but ssu tt t pss wu t b “s-tt.”279 evtuy, k jt B’sst,280 s sttt sy: “Wtu t yu s spt t

yu vws; ppt yu s svs,i pt yu t tu yu uts. i sts t bst tst t a t

u t et cpt css t t t ss yu s.”281 r-ss, B’s v v wt st t puby qust tts p t ecc, tuspv t wy y vtu k bjtt ecc us.

T ts pt vt p u t t w otb 2009. as ttpss pts sust t ecc ut wu t u-,282 t j ws wt

k wu pt t pspt u- t by t ecc.283 S Tyb Jw, t

a bss Wst, pub b otb 16, 2009 tt “u- s y s.”284 Yt, y ys t,k’s p spsps W os, “W t t pss w t sut [u-] uss t s pt s,

w s bvusy w w t t t pty.i t s s u bs pt btw y, t bvusy t pp vt t t sy, ‘Yu ’t t u vt s-

usy t st t, wy su w vt st?’”285

du t t t otb 18, 2009,t ecc s t suts ts ut ss t sttts pst ts wbst.286

a t t ecc u, k bt48.3 pt t vt, abu su31.5 pt.287 T ut s uu-

t 950,000 vts pt k, 190,000 vts pt abu.288 Tut pss ppt u-, w ws tut k vty sut t v. 289

THE lAST mAN STANdINg

it ws t wt k wu pt tut tt s vts w bw ty pt. Tu t t suts wst t b u by t iec, t ecc p-pt y ptt put ts sby pubs t s t wbst.290 T ecc’s s t u t su b tpt s sut s ttk wu jt t s, tt

wu pssu t iec t u ustt pus by t t ts, tus v u-.291 T iec ws utt t pt t s t ecc t ut u-, t u ty u otb 19, 2009 wst t t ut by ecc -pty by di.292 atu t ecc di ut tt k v 48.3 pt t vt, t iec u s tt s 49.7pt t t ut, y .4 pt st

st u vty.293

a u- t vt tt t susty pt pus vt s sttutqut. Yt by st tt uvs sut bv, k but s t pst w j tt ptt ws t v t pt tu-. ut, t tt -uty t s tsvs t u- susss, tus t w u- ts ws pv s

. mst B ku- vst kbu t wt k tu t pt t ecc us.294 St

J ky, w ws t- ss tt , t t v k tt t eccus w wu u- ws ssy.295 T U.S. abss t U.n. kbu, zy k, s v tw tp vt pssb ss su k us t





pt t ecc u.296

o otb 20, 2009, k ky p-p s t U.S. bss t a-st t U.S. Sp rpsttv pss

t u tt pt tecc u t u-.297 Subsqut ptssust tt t U.S. t sst stpssu k t pt t pspt u- t.298 W ts pt pusu b s s pssu k, t ws s uusu ps p t tt pt pt tt wtuby ss vub ut t ws ttk ws y t w t s u.299

du t pss wt ky, k

t tt u ws t s tu- t, sy y: “T vts t t b. Wy t vts w sspt,su b tuy vstt. But t s tt t t t suss ts.”300 Just b tpss , t iec u tt u- t ws t b nvb 7,2009.301 k sp t t utsy t ws t tst t uty t t u- t, ss tt s p -tt tuusy t otb 20, 2009.302 i t tt k’s pt u-, t w susss but tt pw-s btw k abut v st t u ts. Tst k p’s t, b py uptv t t u-, t t tt t bst tst t uty, ws y tt v v t s wt abu, t s w ts.

as t pp tt u- t wu tp, abu pss ssu st s t vt stttt, t vt ty w t t, wus bytt t u-.303 abu

wt t iec c a lu , us ptty t k pt.304 h s t susps u b-t-v fs ut t t ts,u it mst h at, eu-t mst q W, at mst

B Tb as assu k, J Pp, t t idlg.305 abu- s s pss t p bsvs sv y sts, u tt f

psts vt sus w us t p k.306 T iec , lu,sp by sy, “i ’t t t s t t vy t t s t b b t ppt sss iec fs.”307

it ws y uy tt k wu vpt abu’s s. apt tss wu v b ss by ktt s s w vv u. abu’snvb 1 t s spss wtut y sus t, t tt ssu bsv s up ssuppts.308 o nvb 1,2009, abu t t t ly J tt tt wu t u t su bus s s w t t.309 ht u s sp tt ts

wt k t but ss—tt t iec b .310 k, t abu, st t y.311 c-ty t s tt wu s supptst bytt ps t t t stt ptst,

abu .312

k ws t s t y t t . hs p spsps tt “[abu’s] wtw su t tt pss... t pss su tpp ast su b v t t vt.”313 Yt just y t abu stppw, t iec u tt: “s tt ss ts [iec’s] v u-tts bs at 156 t sttut at 49 t et lw, [t iec]s tt m. h k, t

pst t t st u -ts t y t t u, s tb s t t Pst t isrpub ast.”314

my t t t abu'spwu y, att m n, tv B pv. du t tsp btw t t abu's





wtw t , gv n ws t st v ts k. a pub w btw n k's it- mst h at st t t

pt w n u ps tts at, "ust tst tt suppss pp."315 ns w tt k's vt wu bspsb y v tt t u B pv,316 us at tts "sp suty" t pv.317

n ty t t t ut k's w t f by s abu s s t t v-t.318 h t t but w wsty cbt pst by k,

w t v jt.319 dspt stu t, t v's t uy st-. n tt "ws t stk psy," s tv B, spt s t pps-t t k u t t pss.320

o nvb 19, 2009, k ws u-ut s t. hs uuty ws y syb vt. i ssp, k pub tts ssus su s suty, ts wt t UtStts, tt tts.321 h s s ppts, u abu

abu as g, t j tw vt.322 T y ws ttby ts sv uts, u t U.S. Sty Stt hy ct.323

at st y t pt t-s, w t y pts u v stt v, t 2009 t pss .

cONclUSION

Pst k s vv t svvy s-pstt pt, s s st- py a pts tu t 2009t. By b but tvss ut sw pt uvs,

k st s up t ss wt pp t y. h s bby wt v u t t ts.m ptty, k s bt t ts w

p t t psy, svy stustu stt Wst s bt s t.

i 2009, sv pw bs s ut ubt, y t t sttt vpw s ppts. Ust ss t tts t pw-u pt ts b usttv bts t uty. Tt pt pys v vst k, b ts tt stt pt ups tt-. -t, k tty pwu pp su s is k gdstu, s w s w us su s h

at q W t pttws.

k w w v t py b s ptbts. hw wt k pys b, b t t vt pptts tuts, w y v pu pt py t svss t u-ty. Tus t s ptt t w w ws wt u t t pss, wy, ws y v w s t

– tu y pst pts wt ty pu s suts t.

ast’s stt sttuts st w, but pts pt ts tu st t v b. Stt sttuts t yt v t bty t v wv

wv ty ust. Yt, t s t s u tt t a stt s b s u t sutss 2001, s y ust. muty, t suts pt ts t t pt vuus. a bt ps tb pss. i t ttuty, Wst ptu, t s v t t suy’s pss stt. But t tt uty s y v pss tt k t pts v t tpt tws utw kbu. T -





ss pts t s by kbu s ut t . a pts’ by t pt sts tu ps, -, y, pt tws, t

t tu f sttuts tt sy b t t tt uty.

appy psv pts su s “up-t”, “u” “ws” t p ut

a pts s upu, wv. W -ts su s upt py, w yss t t ts ust- t us t vv pt s

ast. T w busss wt pts s t t ust a-st’s tt wy s, btus ptu pt psts. S tstts ts busss-pts t-sp w tsts tspy ss. it s,wv, u t tt t tsts pt ts s sp sttys. V Pst ’s w

wt k s j p ts v y, s t bts t pt p-ps v s busss tsts. T s btus pt ss ast tt squpp, y pty, t w -u s ty wu s yt t p.

T tt uty ust us ss, t t bstts su s “up-t,” t ust t tvts ts a pt us.

u s U.S. v fs t t vv pt s ast ssut Wst’s s ptpt t. ay utu py tws a-st w v t b by t t ts U.S. u wt t pts ast. T u ss u

s 2005 t sp 2009 wt ob astt t sussuy ut t vv ppt astt Wst sut h k’s t.T U.S. t ust k’s w pbty t v s w s wt stt t tt suppt.

rss t t vv pt

ast, but s ps pptu-ts stb t uty. Psts tt u b t sttutstt t us pts. Su pt

s s ts t t vstt pp- ty. ast’s psty-bspt s s ty utut, t s t stbty u tt u pub . isttuts ustvp t t pts byt psts, t u stu-tu. dvpt t pt pts p. S t p vpt stt buuy tt s sufty v pt pw-pys t v ts w spttsts, tvts, pss .

Spy sts pjts s tu. T tt uty s tust t tsts, bts, -uv pbts t y pt pys.r t ts tu pts ast s t t y t t pb sttuts tt t t psty pts u pt tws, but s t s tvy ptt utbty v-t.




noTeS1T st pst t, otb 2004, ws t by t

2001 B at.

2csttut t is rpub ast, cpt iii, at lxi.

3“ast t h Spt Pst, Pty ets”, TheCanadian Press, ast ct mt, ap 9, 2009.

4“ast t h Spt Pst, Pty ets”, TheCanadian Press, ast ct mt, ap 9, 2009.

5S dy, “a ts sy k su st s” Reuters,m 9, 2009.

6“ast’s k my ru r-et,” The Canadian Press, ap 6,2008, ttp://www.tv./svt/atnws/s/cTVnws/20080406/k_t_080406/cTVnwsat11/.

7csttut t is rpub ast, cpt iii, at lxi;S dy, “a ts sy k su st s” Reuters,m 9, 2009.

8“US Ws a ets k’s T,” Agence France Presse, m30, 2009.

9S dy, “a ts sy k su st s” Reuters,m 9, 2009.

10S dy, “a ts sy k su st s” Reuters,

m 9, 2009.11r a. opp J. S r, “a l dts T

utu,” The New York Times, m 7, 2009.

12csttut t is rpub ast, cpt iii, atlxi.

13 a gp, “k ws ts y t ,” The ChristianScience Monitor , m 2, 2009.

14ipt et css Stt, is rpub ast, “Sttt t ipt et cssr t dtt t dt h t Pst Pv cu et,” m 4, 2009, ttp://../ssts/p/psss/iecpsssdttetdt-%2004%2003%202009.p.

15r a. opp J. ctt g, wt abu W W Sr, “a P rjts k d ey ets,” The NewYork Times, m 4, 2009.

16

ctt g, “cut vs k T Ut et,” The New York Times,m 29, 2009.

17“US Ws a ets k’s T,” Agence France Presse, m30, 2009.

18 W mssu, “a t u ,” Inside Story, Al Jazeera English, otb20, 2009.

19 aw rys, “T cuus cs ast,” Journal o Democracy - Vu 17, nub 2, ap 2006, pp. 104-117.

20 aw rys, “T cuus cs ast,” Journal o Democracy - Vu 17, nub 2, ap 2006, pp. 104-117.

21 Jt S. ly, “W ob Suppt k’s r-et ast?” McClatchy Newspapers, Juy 29, 2009.

22rjv cs k d Yu, “k S t B Ts Wt k,” The Washington Post, my 20, 2009.

23 abu W W ctt g, “a gv lvs Pst

r,” The New York Times, my 2, 2009.24Sy Su, “inTerVieW—‘i’ T t Tb’—a Pst

hpu,” Reuters, buy 23, 2009.

25 abu W W ctt g, “a gv lvs Pstr,” The New York Times, my 2, 2009.

26 J Sty, “’d Tt’ t oust k?” The Scotsman, Juy 26,2009; “”a Pst’s rvs S S ct,” Reuters, my 5,2009,

27S a, "Pt hpts Tw- Pts," Tol Aghan, Juy 20, 2009. Tst Pst.

28 gs Wtt, “r hb’s utu U s ut krt rs Wst,” Times Online (UK), nvb 7, 2009.

29 “et itvw Wt k: ‘W d Wt is rt’ ast,”itvw by mt W PBS NewsHour , y nvb9, 2009.

30 et rts dptt, ipt et cssStt, is rpub ast, “Pss rs t etT,” m 19, 2009, www.../ssts/p/psss/

iecpsssetT%20_19%20%2003%20%2009.p.

31 k a m gup, “k gs oppst’s dsy,” AsiaTimes, my 20, 2009.

32 k a m gup, “k gs oppst’s dsy,” Asia Times, my 20, 2009.

33 rjv cs k d Yu, “k S t B Ts Wt k,”The Washington Post, my 20, 2009.

34 "S w t b Pst ct," BBC Persian, my 2, 2009.Tst s.

35 "S w t b Pst ct," BBC Persian, my 2, 2009.Tst s.

36 abu W W ctt g, “a gv lvsPst r,” The New York Times, my 2, 2009.

37 r a. opp J., “a l cuts t W Vt,”The New YorkTimes, auust 7, 2009.

38 S a, "Pt hpts Tw- Pts," Tol Aghan, Juy 20, 2009. Tst Pst.

39 abub Squ, “Pps a cbt St Wt s,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, db 21, 2009.

40 abub Squ, “a Pst’s cts r mu it B‘Tu’ T,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Juy 14, 2009; “itvw wtq W: ‘i my Pspy l, rtt dt hv nP,’” Aghanistan.ru, auust 28, 2008. Tst s.

41 abub Squ, “a Pst’s cts r mu it B‘Tu’ T,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Juy 14, 2009.

42 Sy Su, “Spt a oppst hps k’s cs,”Reuters, ap 26, 2009.

43 rjv cs k d Yu, “k S t B Ts Wt k,”The Washington Post, my 20, 2009.

44 abs z, “a a J ls hs Wt t Pst k,”

Pajhwok Aghan News, auust 17, 2009.45 “lst Pst et cts,” Aghanistan News Network, my 16,

2009. Tst d.

46 csttut t is rpub ast, cpt iii, atlxii.

47 abub Squ, “hut By Suty s, k hs o T t-ru Sttus,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, auust 13, 2009.

48 abu W W ctt g, “a gv lvsPst r,” The New York Times, my 2, 2009.

49 Jt et mt By Stt, Pv rsuts Pst et 2004, ssb t ttp://www.jb.//jb.t.

50 “Suty rvs ht,”Quqnoos, m 31, 2009. Tst d.

51 “is k’s dt Suppt k,” BBC Farsi Online, auust

14, 2009. Tst s.52 et ut ast (ea), “itt

Sttt s t et cp,” auust 2, 2009.

53T TV, “is k Suvvs Su att,” V cp pst Quqnoos Dari, Sptb 28, 2009.

54T TV, “is k Suvvs Su att,” V cp pst Quqnoos Dari, Sptb 28, 2009.

55ipt et css Stt, is rpub ast, et 2009 Pv rsuts. ttp://../suts/pst.t.

56“is k’s dt Suppt k,” BBC Farsi Online, auust 14,2009. Tst s.




noTeS57 Jt et mt By Stt, Pv rsuts

Pst et 2004, ssb t ttp://www.jb.//jb.t.



60 a S, “Wt W att m n, t B gv,d?” Daily Weesa, Ju 21, 2009. Tst d. ttp://www.ws.t/?p=6120.

61“B gv Sys h rjt cbt Pst os,”Pajhwok AghanNews, db 7, 2009. Tst Pst.

62dp mupyy, “Ws as Buuts: T a ep,”Carnegie Papers, Middle East Program, Number 101, c ewt itt P, auust 2009.

63“B gv Sys h rjt cbt Pst os,”Pajhwok AghanNews, db 7, 2009. Tst Pst.

64dp mupyy, “Ws as Buuts: T a ep,”Carnegie Papers, Middle East Program, Number 101, c ewt

itt P, auust 2009.65dp mupyy, “Ws as Buuts: T a ep,”

Carnegie Papers, Middle East Program, Number 101, c ewt itt P, auust 2009.

66“att m n Ss at W,”Bakhtar Daily, otb 17,2009. Tst d.

67“T B gv’s ovt oppst t et lw,” Aghanistan NewsNetwork, Juy 4, 2009, Tst d.

68“T B gv’s ovt oppst t et lw,” Aghanistan NewsNetwork, Juy 4, 2009, Tst d.

69dp mupyy, “Ws as Buuts: T a ep,”Carnegie Papers, Middle East Program, Number 101, c ewt itt P, auust 2009.

70“at att m n’s est abu: k Wts tB gv t rs,”Daily 8am, Aghanistan News Network, Ju 15, 2009,Tst d

71 a S, “Wt W att m n, t B gv,d?” Daily Weesa, Ju 21, 2009. Tst d.

72 Jt et mt By Stt, rsuts Pstet 2004, ssb t ttp://www.jb.//jb.t.


74B gy Ws, “dstu: ast’s ebtt W,” TerrorismMonitor , V. 6, iss. 8, T Jstw ut, ap 17, 2008.

75“est k by Tw mj a Pts,” Quqnoos, my 31,2009, Tst d.


77dv gust, “US Susy c abut dstu’s rtu t ast,” Voice o America, auust. 17, 2009.

78 Jt S. ly T lsst, “ntus a W rtus

t hp k,” McClatchy Newspapers, auust 16, 2009.

79 Jt S. ly T lsst, “ntus a W rtust hp k,” McClatchy Newspapers, auust 16, 2009.

80 Jt S. ly T lsst, “ntus a W rtust hp k,” McClatchy Newspapers, auust 16, 2009.

81ipt et css Stt, is rpub ast, “et 2009 Pv rsuts,” ssb t ttp://../suts/pst.t.


83r opp J. abu W W, “hs hust t h css ast,” The New York Times, Juy 3, 2010.

84“est k by Tw mj a Pts,” Quqnoos, my 31,2009, Tst d.

85h m, “muqq: k W gv m v msts c Tw dstts t Pvs,” Tol-Aghan Online, Juy 6, 2009.Tst Pst.

86

h m, “muqq: k W gv m v msts c Tw dstts t Pvs,” Tol-Aghan Online, Juy 6, 2009.Tst Pst.

87ipt et css Stt, is rpub ast, “et 2009 Pv rsuts,” ssb t ttp://../suts/pst.t.

88 ipt et css Stt, is rpub ast, “et 2009 Pv rsuts,” ssb t ttp://../suts/pst.t.


90 Js Stus r , “P sws k wt b sp bs,” Associated Press, Ju 16, 2009.

91 Sy Su, “cp Uwy a Pst P,”Reuters, Ju 16, 2009.



94 “T ast hj z’s Bt ats ivvt hjQ’s mu. But Wy?,” Jawedan Online, otb 14, 2007. Tst d.

95 “hj z t b ast: gv,” Pak Tribune, my 28, 2009.

96 “et atvts v k by n autts,” Aghan VoiceNews Agency, Juy 13, 2009, Tst d.


98 Js rs m l, “aus du Ts, a of Ws U.S.,” The New York Times, auust 26, 2009.

99

Ptp cttj, “Py o ast’s Ws,”Salon Online,nvb 17, 2009.

100dt s, “a l outuvs et rvs,” The New YorkTimes, Ju 24, 2009.


102ns Tu, “k rsts hs Wt,” The Republic o Silence, m 27,2009. Tst s.

103m a Wy, “T m-b hs dv a!,” AzmooneMelli, buy 07, 2008. Tst s.


105B, "d. abu s t ct t Ut t," Deutsche Welle-World , ap 16, 2009. Tst d.

106of Wbst t nt t, Jabha Melli Online, ttp://www. jb./.pp?p=2. Tst d.

107of Wbst d. abu abu, ssb t ttp://bu./.

108“’s oppst t abu’s nt s “Ps op”: Jb m,” BBC/Persian, buy 28, 2009. Tst s.

109“’s oppst t abu’s nt s “Ps op”: Jb m,” BBC/Persian, buy 28, 2009. Tst s.

110kt B. rbu, “k is c W, a Vt rsuts Sw,”TheWashington Post, otb 25, 2004.

111rjv cs, “astt is kp ay t a’s lt,” The Washington Post, my 6, 2009.




noTeS112rjv cs, “ob, k: nt S cuy,” The Washington Post,

my 6, 2009.

113“ob, k dsuss Suty du st P c,” CBC News,buy 18, 2009.

112r hb, “T lst W,” The Washington Post, m 31, 2008.

115 abu W W ctt g, “ky ct Quts aPst r,” The New York Time, m 3, 2009.

116 ay B, “Wt rv’s Wtw, k’s Pt t r-et es,”Time, my 6, 2008.

117 W P. Stb Jt S. ly, “ob’s ast ‘Su’:dpts, cv Spsts,”McClatchy Newspapers, m 18, 2009.

118l S, “U.S. Sys nt Py vts a P,” Reuters, ap18, 2009.

119Tspt c rs tvw wt J ky, T c rsSw, db 3, 2009, ssb t ttp://www.s./w/tspt/10744.

120gs Wtt, “r hb’s utu U as ut krt rs Wst,” Times Online (UK), nvb 07, 2009.

121m m, “ evys c mt P cts: aiec,” Pajhwok AghanNews, Ju 24, 2009.

122 St, “a Suty cs, s k S etop,” The Boston Globe, Ju 23, 2009.

123s abs, “US nt’ Suty avs mts a cts,” Associated Press, Ju 23, 2009.

124mws Ys cp Wbst, ssb t ttp://wsys./s/u.pp.

125Sy S ns, “Js cv Js T a cp T,”National Public Radio, Juy 25, 2009.

126 a Pst nws, “ Pst k cts US abss g Trv mt[],” Ju 27, 2009.

127“ k Ptsts US dpt’s Ps at rv’s mt,” Deutsch Presse Agentur , Ju 27, 2009.

128“s Su nt it i T et Pss: k,” BBC/ Persian, Ju 27, 2009. Tst s.

129“s Su nt it i T et Pss: k,” BBC/

Persian, Ju 27, 2009. Tst s.130“s Su nt it i T et Pss: k,” BBC/

Persian, Ju 27, 2009. Tst s.

131“s Su nt it i T et Pss: k,” BBC/ Persian, Ju 27, 2009. Tst s.

132k Suppts o cp Wbst, ssb t ttp://./.



135“k Ss nt Ptpt t nw gvt,’ PayameMojahed , db 19, 2009. Tst s.

136“gvt ofs must nt Us T Sttus t a ets,”lwb nws, Ju 2, 2009. Tst Pst.

137S a, “du Pts Pt its,” Tolaghan, Juy 20, 2009. Tst Pst.

138Pt g, “nw a Vt rus my esu k Vty,” Reuters,otb 5, 2009.

139ru W, “d. abu cp Js k cp,”Taand, auust12, 2009. Tst Pst.

140T spt t 2009 t ast vbs vs tspy, ts pt stuy ts. hw j busss s s t ts ptty pu u psv ptu t w pt y ast.

141“a gv rv Pst,” BBC News, Juy 16, 2007.

142B ay, “hpts, ws, s s a p s t stt,” The Christian Science Monitor , auust 14, 2009.

143of Wbst d. abu abu, ssb t ttp://bu./.

144of Wbst d. abu abu, ssb t ttp://bu.

/.145 Wbst l abu abu Pst, abu cp

o, ttp://bu./.pp?p=_pss+ss.

146S o a, ttp://www.bb./.pp?sps=s.

147“Pps Pt o d. abu abu, Pst ct,is rpub ast,” ssb t ttp://bu./p/Pt_s.p.

148“Pps Pt o d. abu abu, Pst ct,is rpub ast,” ttp://bu./p/Pt_s.p.

149“ct k Sws Wss cts,” k Supptso cp Wbst, ssb t www...

150 J B, “ et v hts ky, ast,’ The Guardian (UK), auust 10, 2009.

151

Sy S ns, “ k rvs m gs a o a Vt,”National Public Radio, Juy 23, 2009.

152 a z rt, “ abu abu, Syb rtu t T Pst,”Karzai.org,ttp://./abu%20bu%20--b%20st.t

153 a z rt, “ abu abu, Syb rtu t T Pst,”Karzai.org ttp://./abu%20bu%20--b%20st.t

154cs Ss, “rv Ws k W W nt B apt,” The National, Juy 28, 2009.

155cs Ss, “rv Ws k W W nt B apt,” The National, Juy 28, 2009.

156 W o, “ k ry TV dbt,” Ariana Net, auust 1, 2009.Tst d.

157 et ut ast (ea), “ittSttt s t et cp,” auust 2, 2009.

158 et ut ast (ea), “ittSttt s t et cp,” auust 2, 2009.

159 Jv h k, “msty t it must ap: abu’scp St,” Pajhwok Aghan News, auust 4, 2008. Tst d.

160oy w ast’s tv TV s . my w by pwu busss pt s, u s t vu ss vy. apt T TV, w by t mby gup, Ss TV, t s y uy tt y t stt u tw t t t t u sts. i ts st s, t p ws bvusy pt by tbss. m. k t bu t j s vb t .T TV s t t , t ts ws bs wt ts ps, t t t y ut ,tu ts t-k bs. ot s vty s wt ts. dspt t stt-u TV rTa b y qu t ut, t ws us wt vy ss p-k p, tus ttt qut ts by t m css tipt et css.

161T s t 2009 t ps svs ut stuy.

1622009 Pst dbt, Tolo TV , Ju 24 2009.

163 J B, “h k Pus out hst TV dbt Just husB Bst,” The Guardian (UK), Juy 22, 2009.

164“Pst k Subs TV dbt a o ets,” Agence France Presse, Juy 24, 2009.

165Bs t ut’s w s w kbu Ju t Sptb,2009.

166 Jsu Ptw, “k s 2 rvs dbt,” The Washington Post, auust17, 2009.

167 Jsu Ptw, “k s 2 rvs dbt,” The Washington Post, auust




noTeS17, 2009

168 Jqub Su, “W kbu B T Ts S,”of Wbst d. abu abu, auust 3, 2009, ssb tttp://bu./.pp?p=_nws+132.

169hu hbb, “v m W cp,” Aghanistanvotes.com,

auust 4, 2009.170lu k, “ast’s W t y m,” Los Angeles Times,

auust 15, 2009.

171Sy S ns, “k rvs m gs a o a Vt,”National Public Radio, Juy 23, 2009.

172 J B, “et v hts ky, ast,” The Guardian (UK), auust 10, 2009.

173 abu W W, “k cps rt a Vy,” The NewYork Times, auust 1, 2009.

174 J B, “et v hts ky, ast,” The Guardian (UK), auust 10, 2009.

175B ay, “hpts, cws, a cs as a cp hsit h Stt,”The Christian Science Monitor, auust 14, 2009.

176“Tb Tts a ets,” CNN , buy 18, 2004.

177ctt g, “as P hw T P ets i ast,”The New

York Times, ap 11, 2009.

178 Sy Su, “Tb Vw T dsupt ast et,” Reuters, Juy 30, 2009.

179“ea rpt Vt rstt 3 Ps,” etut ast, ssb t ttp://../e_Ps/rpts/VrP_rp/VrP_3.p.

180“Tb t tuss t stt s pp g,” Pajhwak Aghan News, auust 16, 1009. Tst Pst.

181“Ut Tspt rs dv by n ny, ea cps,” et ut ast, auust22, 2009,

182“kpp s a t ws,”CNN, auust 14, 2009.

183“W k Bs et Tu,” United Press International, auust 14 2009.

184 auts w bsvt w ast (Ju-Sptb 2009).ea v tt tt s by “hb-u-T.”

185 auts w bsvt w ast (Ju-Sptb 2009).ea v tt tt s by “hb-u-T.” Tst by t ut.

186“ast bs rpt atts du et,” ctt tPtt Justs, auust 19, 2009.

187“ast but s v tts vt,” CNN, auust 19, 2009.

188 Ju S, “as it hpp: a et 2009,” BBC News, auust20, 2009.

189“Ut Tspt rs dv by n ny, ea cps,” et ut ast, auust22, 2009.


191

Jut Sy, “gs dsuss naTo r a ets,” Armed Forces Press Service, auust 19, 2009.

192“ast bs rpt atts du et,” ctt tPtt Justs, auust 19, 2009.

193“ast’s m mst: l cv t a ets,”Internews Network, auust 20, 2009.

194obsv by t ut kbu t auust 20t t y.

195 Ju S, “as it hpp: a et 2009,” BBC News, auust20, 2009.

196“hw t t pss,” Abdullah Abdullah or President 2009, ssb tttp://www.bu./.pp?p=_nws+178.

197 at s py t u st utp vt by

ps ws t v pu t t vt stt by tp st. hwv, t pus supp t vt sts st pts t uty pv tv u t t b quty. at pts subut t pu pb, y t vt us, t iec st tvst pv p ts t us ssss ut s stts t ts w vt.

198d my, “et dy 2009: ast Vts,” Ut nts assst mss ast, auust 20, 2009.

199 Jy P, “’ib’ i Us t m a Vts my St etSuss,” Times Online (UK), auust 21, 2009.

200 au V. ab, “Un evy Tsts ib et i,” Utnts assst mss ast, auust 2, 2009.

201 Jy P, “’ib’ i Us t m a Vts my St etSuss,” Times Online (UK), auust 21, 2009.


203 aut’s w bsvts s sutt wt ea (Ju-Sptb2009)

204Tspt et Wbt, U.S. ebssy-kbu, Ju 18, 2009,ssb t ttp://bu.usbssy.v/t_wbt1806.t.

205“iri Py Sttt ast’s Pst Pvets,” itt rpub isttut, auust 21, 2009.

206“itut,” 2009, Pst Pv cu ets 2009,eup U et obsvt mss t ast, ssb tttp://www.u-st./en/it.t.

207“ruts cut,” ipt et css Stt,is rpub ast, ssb t ttp://../ssts/p/w/uts//rutocut.p.



210“Pss rs et T,” ipt et cssStt, is rpub ast, ssb t ttp://../

ssts/p/psss/iecpsssetT%20_19%20%2003%20%2009.p.

211“l cts c Vty ast et,” Euro News, auust 21, 2009.

212“Tp cts Bt c st-ru Vty i a P,” Radio FreeEurope/Radio Liberty, auust 21, 2009.

213“Tp cts Bt c st-ru Vty i a P,” Radio FreeEurope/Radio Liberty, auust 21, 2009.

214 “Tw m a Pst cts c Vty,” Deutsch Presse Agentur , auust 21, 2009,.

215ctt g, “a cbt mst cs k Vty,” The New YorkTimes, auust 24, 2009.

216rjv cs, “a St app t k,” The Washington Post,nvb 20, 2009.

217r hb, “ltt t t et,”The Washington Post, nvb

5, 2009, ttp://www.wstpst./wp-y/tt/t/2009/11/04/ar2009110404271.t.

218rjv cs, “a St app t k,”The Washington Post,nvb 20, 2009.

219Stt Ws rjv cs, “k s t w U.S.Stty,” The Washington Post, nvb 3, 2009.

220n cbu, ”ls lty?” Aghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit,nvb 2009.

221P cstb, “as Wts u, ‘vyt’ s stpp,” The WashingtonPost, nvb 1, 2009.

222“z: k ly t W a,” CNN, otb 23, 2009.

223“st a- ts y pstv: eU bsv,” Xinhua News, auust




noTeS23, 2009.

224“as Pusu dy dspt V, ndi obsv msss,” nt dt isttut, auust 22, 2009.

225 a etus h S, “a et , But nt —eU,”Reuters, auust 22, 2009.

226“Tp eU obsv Sys Vt nt evyw But ‘gy’ ,” Agence France Presse, auust 22, 2009.

227itt rpub isttut, “iri Py Sttt ast’s Pst Pv ets,” auust 21, 2009.

228itt rpub isttut, “iri Py Sttt ast’s Pst Pv ets,” auust 21, 2009.

229 et ut ast, “et dy PssSttt 20 auust 2009,” ttp://../psss/ea-et%20dy%20Sttt-au20.p.



232

“Ut Tspt rs dv by n ny, ea cps,” et ut ast, auust22, 2009.ttp://www.../psss/Ut%20Tspt- auust22-2009-ea.p.

233 Jt ly, “obsvs cutus abut d a Vt a Suss,” McClatchy Newspapers, auust 22, 2009.

234“dy itt s ru rqu Bs ecc auts,” dy itt, otb 19, 2009.

235“abu: k t ts,” Associated Press, auust 23, 2009.

236“abu: k t ts,” Associated Press, auust 23, 2009.

237“W w nt m ds o Yu Vts Psts,” of Wbst d. abu abu, Sptb 1, 2009, ssb t ttp://www.bu./.pp?p=_nws+192.

238“a rvs c et u,” Al Jazeera English, auust 24, 2009.

239P cstb Jsu Ptw, “k oppt as‘Wsp’ Vt u,” The Washington Post, auust 24, 2009.

240 auts bsvts t uty u ts p.


242T sws j s, u T a, but ss Ss TV, w st suy us t ssu utst t subjt t t t ys t t vt.

243“ey rsuts Sw Tt r a Psy,” CNN , auust 25,2009.

244dt s, Tb ls Sy k’s T 23,900 Vts,” The New York Times, Sptb 1, 2009.


246h Bt, “at S a P Ps, k gt evy Vt,”McClatchy Newspapers, Sptb 5, 2009.

247 abub Squ, “Pstt css hs a Qust Stbty,” Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, Sptb 2, 2009.

248“d oy Bs,” Radio Television Aghanistan (RTA), Sptb, 18, 2009.


250ctt g, “W u is c s as Ty Vts,” The New YorkTimes, auust 25, 2009.

251cy t, “k Ws l as a Vt rut o,”National Public Radio, Sptb 8, 2009.

252“k Pus a i a Ps,” Al Jazeera English, auust 29, 2009.



255“Pss rs,” is rpub ast et cptscss, Sptb 2, 2009, ssb t ttp://www...//

s/sts/p/ecc2009Pssrs0209e.p.

256“k mvs it a et l: Pt rsuts,” Agence France Presse,Sptb 8, 2009.

257“k mvs it a et l: Pt rsuts,” Agence France Presse,Sptb 8, 2009.

258“a Vt rsuts: k at 54.6 Pt,” Associated Press, Sptb 16,2009.

259“eU Sys 1.5 a Vts Suspt,” Al Jazeera English, Sptb 17, 2009.



262d Ws, “Ppts nw ast Vt B,” Guardian(UK), Sptb 16, 2009.

263“d. abu abu Sps out ast,” Asia Society, Juy 24,2008,.

264 Js B, T c, J Sty, “Un c Pt gbtis rv i ast P cs,” Times Online (UK), Sptb 15,2009.

265 J nt, “U.S. of css Wt U.n. ov a P u,”National Public Radio, Sptb 16, 2009.

266

Js g r a. opp J., “U.n. ofs Sy ao P t rp k,”The New York Times, db 16, 2009.

267 Js g r a. opp J., “U.n. ofs Sy ao P t rp k,”The New York Times, db 16, 2009.

268“Un Wstbw Sys my k’s Vts uut,” Tspt S l Pt gbt, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, otb 8,2009.

269 Js B, “S evy Pt gbt auss Un ‘cv-Up’ a Vt u,” Times Online (UK), otb 1, 2009.

270is rpub ast et cpts css,ssb t ttp://www...//.

271“abu cts rut,” China Central Television, Sptb 25,2009.

272Bu W, “as B et rsuts,” Montreal Gazette, cwstnws Sv, otb 19, 2009.

273

J Sty, “Pst k’s S a Vt s Ss by uofs,” Times Online (UK), otb 17, 2009

274 J Sty, “Pst k’s S a Vt s Ss by uofs,” Times Online (UK), otb 17, 2009.

275is rpub ast et cpts css,“Ust t Pss ecc Py iptt,” otb 11,2009, ssb t ttp://www...//s/sts/p/ecc%202009%20Ust%20t%20pss%20%20ecc%20py%20ptt%2020091011_eng.p.

276is rpub ast et cpts css,“Ust t Pss ecc Py iptt,” otb 11,2009, ssb t ttp://www...//s/sts/p/ecc%202009%20Ust%20t%20pss%20%20ecc%20py%20ptt%2020091011_eng.p.

277rbt r h Vt, “Pbs Bst a Vt rut,” Associated Press, otb 12, 2009.



280Tt B’s st wt t k t t s t bss,t c Just, s s uusu.

281“Pst k ds nt apt mww must B’s rst,”Pss s by t is rpub ast of t Pst,otb 14, 2009, ssb t ttp://www.pst.v./ctts/88/duts/823/mww_ust_.t.

282“ast et: ru-o P s h k’s S Vtsdps,” Telegraph (UK), otb 16, 2009.

283 a gp, Pt Sp, Ysv Tv, “k apts




noTeSru, e Pt d,”The Wall Street Journal, otb 21, 2009.

284“ast et: ru-o P s h k’s S Vtsdps,” Telegraph (UK), otb 16, 2009.

285B ay, “dpts U rvs t apt a Vt,” The ChristianScience Monitor , otb 18, 2009.

286S t et cpts css wbst, ssb t ttp://www...//.pp?pt=_tt&vw=t&=50&it=65.


288 “dy itt s ru rqu Bs ecc auts,” dy itt, otb 19, 2009.



291 abu h, “ast: a et Wtut rsuts,” The HufngtonPost, otb 19, 2009.


293 J Sty, “k’s rv ry t ctst et ru-o,” TheScotsman, otb 22, 2009.

294 a rs, “hw Ty cv k,” New York Review o Books Blog ,otb 23, 2009.


296 St, “ky Puss a ru,” Boston Globe, otb 19,2009.

297 St, “ ky, a dpt Tup,” Boston Globe, otb21, 2009.


299 z, "k ly t W a," CNN , otb 23, 2009.

300h cp, m l Sb Tvs, “Wt nw a Vt, Pt T Stbty is U,” The New York Times, otb 20, 2009.

301rs, “hw Ty cv k.”

302“a et ru,” Inside Story, Al Jazeera English, otb 21, 2009.

303dt s ass rub, “k rv S t B P t Qutru,” The New York Times, otb 31, 2009.


305T idlg s sttut 2007 tt pts ty t tpst, s ts wt t pptt vs vt fs—pv vs stt s. Juuscvs, “ast ru: abu Wts et c S,”The Christian Science Monitor , otb 26, 2009.


307 Wu mssu, “abu ds S a etc,” Agence France Presse, otb 26, 2009.

308“abu Sp, ly J Tt,” Tolo TV Video, nvb 2, 2009.

309“a c abu dps out o et,” Associated Press,nvb 1, 2009.



312“abu pus ut s u, s ,” Radio France International,nvb 2, 2009.

313“k rv Pus out o ru,” Al Jazeera English, nvb 1, 2009.

314“Pss rs iec ds,” ipt et cssStt, is rpub ast, nvb 2, 2009, ssbt ttp://../ssts/p/psss/pssiecds20091102.p.

315"n: T it mst s cust," Aghanistan News Network,Sptb 9, 2009. Tst d.

316"n: T it mst s cust," Aghanistan News Network,Sptb 9, 2009. Tst d.

317"att auss at Sp isuty," BBC Pashto Online, Sptb 9,

2009. Tst Pst.318 Ysv Tv, "Pwu a gv cs Pst," The

Wall Street Journal, nvb 6, 2009.

319"att m n: n rs t apt B Pt tcbt," Payam-e-Roz , db 1, 2009. Tst d.

320 Sy S ns, "e-W hps a Pv mPss," National Public Radio, Juy 12, 2010; "att m n: nrs t apt B Pt t cbt," Payam-e-Roz , db 1,2009. Tst d.

321 hsb huy, "Pst h k's S iuu ass:ct Pts Py ipts," Backgrounder , isttut t Stuy W, nvb 20, 2009.

322 hsb huy, "Pst h k's S iuu ass:ct Pts Py ipts," Backgrounder , isttut t Stuy W, nvb 20, 2009.

323 hsb huy, "Pst h k's S iuu ass:

ct Pts Py ipts," Backgrounder , isttut t Stuy W, nvb 20, 2009.



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Afghanistan: The Re-election of Hamid Karzai

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