INSAFE 2012 - Page 1 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Afonso Ferreira

• Married and father of two children (17 and 11)

• Researcher in Computer Science (French CNRS & INRIA)

• Research Administrator and Policy Maker

• Future and Emerging Technologies

• Digital Futures

What’s Next?

INSAFE 2012 - Page 3 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

China’s share of world’s export

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1820 1973 2006

INSAFE 2012 - Page 4 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

GDP distribution

INSAFE 2012 - Page 5 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

What was before:

The Industrial Revolution

• New technology (cotton mills) caused a financial markets bubble

• A great deal of old-type jobs (agricultural ) were lost • Massive immigration

– Italy lost almost half of its population

– Ireland lost around 2/3 of its population

(current population smaller than in 1870)

• The start of a long-standing growth era (after several

wars, including two world-wars)

INSAFE 2012 - Page 6 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Technological Revolutions

New

Technologies

Adoption in

Business Processes

Higher Efficiency;

New Jobs;

New Business Models

Economic

Slowdown

Massive Unemployment

&

Social Unrest

Scarceness of Skilled

Man-Power for New Jobs Population

Unsettlement

Adaptation

Infr

ast

ru

ctu

res

Ed

uca

tio

n –

Tra

inin

g

New

min

dse

ts

Inn

ova

tio

n

INSAFE 2012 - Page 7 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Examples of progress in ICT

1997 1876

2000

201?

INSAFE 2012 - Page 8 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

What’s now:

The Digital Revolution

• Late 80’s: – Infant Internet

– Embryonic Web

– Inexistent GSM phones

(Log scale)

• By the time of the first Safer Internet Day: – Facebook hadn’t been

launched yet

INSAFE 2012 - Page 9 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

And in 20 years from now

• Hypothesis 1 – Microprocessors industry will deliver more of and

more than Moore until 2030, as promised in their roadmap

• Requirements

– Energy

– (Raw) Materials

– Water

• Corollary – Computing power will increase at least 1000-fold from

today to 2030

INSAFE 2012 - Page 10 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Let’s talk about

• Impact of the Digital Revolution on a safer Internet and beyond

INSAFE 2012 - Page 11 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

DR enabling

Science & Technology

Science Actor

Experiment

Science Result

Normal Scientific Undertaking

INSAFE 2012 - Page 12 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

DR enabling

Science & Technology

Science Actors

Parallel and Accelerated Experiments

Science Results

Industrial-Scale Science

INSAFE 2012 - Page 13 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

DR enabling

Science & Technology

• DR act on the experiments – Make them faster

– Make them cheaper

– Make them multiple-input/multiple-output

• Hence, the Digital Revolution will transform the very process of

scientific endeavour, not only by significantly speeding-up experiments, but also enabling parallel experiments, on one hand, and a multiplicity of Science Actors, on the other hand.

• Some sorts of experiments are then commoditized and executed by non trained Scientists – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-14986013

• Eventually, the DR will enable non trained Scientists to test their own hypotheses

• The scientific endeavour will then itself receive accelerated returns => Technological change becomes exponential

INSAFE 2012 - Page 14 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Technological areas of large impact by 2030 (non exhaustive)

• Bio-engineering – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppILwXwsMng&feature=related – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkxuJwlquuQ&feature=related

• Regenerative medicine – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxL9J2IIe8Y&feature=BFa&list=PL34BC

FE6D55D881A1&lf=plpp – http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2009/02/the-future-of-regenerative-

medicine.php – http://videos.tf1.fr/infos/2011/etats-unis-une-imprimante-a-organes-en-3d-

6678522.html

• Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMI) – http://gaggio.blogspirit.com/brain-computer_interface/ – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-fE9QBy0FI

• Large-scale personalized digital manufacturing (3D printing) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZboxMsSz5Aw – http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20737-3d-printing-the-worlds-first-

printed-plane.html – http://videos.tf1.fr/infos/2011/etats-unis-une-imprimante-a-organes-en-3d-

6678522.html (same as in regenerative medicine)

INSAFE 2012 - Page 15 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

DR impact

• Claim: These and other technological developments will happen no matter what, bar hyper disaster. Better be prepared

• Two Facts: Cyber-Physical convergence & Digital Natives

• Needed: Early warning systems • Philosophical note: The day where 3D-

printers will be able to print 3D-printers will be pivotal in the history of technology

INSAFE 2012 - Page 16 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Some other aspects of the

Digital Revolution

• Legal

– The case of the runner Pistorius will have been an internship test in comparison

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAd5z-lq6pA • Economical

– East-West (un)balance – Digital economy in full gear

• New business models are required, adapted to a experience-based, Cyber economy, rather than to the old object-based, Industrial economy (as in the Games business)

• Prosumers • Adapted regulation is required

• Societal – Extensive re-engineering may be needed

• Life extension, new notion of tooabled in opposition to disabled, new ethical systems, collapse of industrial models, and much more

– Governance 3.0 • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2KmRb_ryhI&feature=BFa&list=PL34BCFE6

D55D881A1&lf=plpp – Increased participation but with liquid citizenship – New jobs/skills typology

• Skills gap; unemployment; the disappearance of procedural white-collar jobs, but eventually also of the brain worker by lack of time due to the data deluge

INSAFE 2012 - Page 17 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Thoughts about

Safety in the Cyber Realm

• It’d be misleading and even counterproductive to pretend that we could regulate in anticipation of technology to come

• Our exercise will be efficient if it manages to prepare the ground for the establishment of mechanisms allowing for future regulation to become quickly reactive

• Use of education and of incentive mechanisms are powerful

• Korea is a broadband society – We cannot seriously look at our future as a broadband society without talking to them

• Games business is a path-opener

• Some trends present a larger certainty to materialise in future than others (eg

microprocessors industry roadmap). How to make use of this?

• It is difficult to have people project themselves far into the future. Several visions expressed during Foresight 2030 in 2009 are to happen in… 2012!

INSAFE 2012 - Page 18 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Policy matters

• Industrial era measures are ineffective – Digital era measures must be devised

• Adapted and adaptive legal systems – Should promote forward-looking, scenario-based development of legal systems

• Adapted and reactive safety frameworks

• Society re-engineering – Societal fabrics should transform themselves, slowly but noticeably, to shape

envisioned desired scenarios

• Systemic approach

• Technology watch to detect unexpected areas of large impact

INSAFE 2012 - Page 19 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Thoughts on regulation

• No boundaries global market seems to imply that rules should be user-centred

• Continuum between physical and cyber worlds also points to regulation that does not specialises in one world or another, but rather on usage at large

• Focus should not be on technology. Should be impact-oriented

• User-centred guidelines

• Focus on standards and interoperability

• Fundamental rights could be extended to the Digital Era (eg, Children Safety, Security, Data Protection)

• Too tight regulation stifles innovation

• Scientists recommend bottom-up, organic, and intrinsic regulation as more robust

INSAFE 2012 - Page 20 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Conclusion

• The future – Bright or

– Bwrong

• What’s your perspective?

Let’s talk!

INSAFE 2012 - Page 21 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Crafting Question for World Cafe

• How to implement children safety in the hyperconnected world of 2020?

INSAFE 2012 - Page 22 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Three Rounds

One Question per Round

• Round 1: What is the real quest behind

the crafting question?

• Round 2: What is missing?

• Round 3: Next steps and help needed.

INSAFE 2012 - Page 23 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Table Leaders

• At each table there is one table leader – Stay at table during all rounds

– Report to table newcomers at beginning of Rounds 2 and 3

– Harvest content and ideas on charts

– Report three keywords to plenary

– Post charts for further reading

INSAFE 2012 - Page 24 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Question Round 1

• What is the real quest behind the crafting question?

• Crafting Question: – How to implement children safety in the

hyperconnected world of 2020?

INSAFE 2012 - Page 25 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Question Round 2

• What is missing?

• Crafting Question: – How to implement children safety in the

hyperconnected world of 2020?

INSAFE 2012 - Page 26 - Afonso Ferreira –

"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and

in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

Question Round 3

• Next steps and help needed.

• Crafting Question: – How to implement children safety in the

hyperconnected world of 2020?