Date post: | 01-Jan-2016 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | zenaida-joyce |
View: | 27 times |
Download: | 0 times |
Brussels Development Briefing n.33
Drivers of success for agricultural transformation in Africa 2nd October 2013
http://brusselsbriefings.net
African agriculture in a changing global context: lessons learned.Steve Wiggins, ODI.
African agriculture in a changing global context: lessons learned
Steve WigginsOverseas Development Institute
HOW DISAPPOINTING IS AFRICA’S AGRICULTURAL RECORD?
Familiar graph:Food Production per cap, since 1960s
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Africa South America
Asia
Gro
ss P
rodu
ction
Per
Cap
Inde
x 19
61/6
3 =
100,
3 y
ear m
ovin
g av
.
Not so familiarAgricultural Output, Africa, since 1960s
19621964
19661968
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
2010 100
200
300
400
Africa, all Eastern
Middle Northern
Southern Western
Gros
s Pro
ducti
on, c
onst
ant p
rices
, 3YM
A, in
dexe
d to
19
61/6
3
Less familiarAgricultural Growth Rates
Africa Eastern Africa Middle Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa -
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00 Growth Rate, Year, 61/3 to 09/11Growth Rate, Year, 81/3 to 09/11
GHANA: WHAT CAN BE DONE
8
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
2.6 % year
5.1 % year1974 1982
3 .1% year
1991/1992 1998/1999 200620
30
40
50
60
70 Poverty, rural
Poverty, cocoa producers
Poverty, national
Pove
rty
Inci
denc
e (%
)
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Underweight, % U5s
Food Supply, kcal/cap/day
No secrets to agricultural development!
Rural Investment Climate• Doesn’t have to be perfect!
Rural Public Goods• Roads, power, irrigation, etc.• Education, Health, Water• Research & Extension
SE Asia: 3 preconditions for ↑growth& ↓povertyMalaysia ex 1958, Indonesia ex 1967, Vietnam ex 1986, Cambodia ex 1999 (?)
Macroeconomic stabilitylow inflation, currency overvaluation
Economic freedomfor farmers & entrepreneurs
Pro-poor public spendingon agriculture, public services, rural infrastructure
Source: Henley & van Donge 2012
SE Asia: yes & no
Coalitions for shared growth
Authoritarian ruleForeign aidElimination of corruption Liberalised financial systems Privatised utilities Indigenous bourgeoisieIndustrial policy