African animal agriculture:Grasping opportunities

International Livestock CongressHouston, USA, March 4-5, 2015

Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI

Key messages

• Fast-rising demand in Africa for more milk, meat and eggsis driving great changes in the continent’s livestock sector

• This growing demand will be met − one way or the other.We need to work now to influence how it is met.

• The growth presents tremendous markets for smallholders and also big suppliers –animal products and inputs

• The growth also presents Africa with many big andnew equity, health and environmental challenges –which are being turned into OPPORTUNITIES

• Only enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions will ensure that Africa’s livestock systems transition to help, not hurt, broad growth and human and environmental health

4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock

FAOSTAT 2014(values for 2012)

Cow milk has overtaken rice

Eggs havedisplacedmaize

Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050

Mill

ion m

etr

ic t

onnes

developing countries

developed countries

Hypothetical: Ifdeveloping-countryper capitaconsumption rateequalled that ofdeveloped countries

3 out of 6 of the highest valueAfrican commodities are livestock

Source: FAOSTAT, 2013

Per capita global kilocalorie

availability from edible animal products

Source: Herrero et al (PNAS, in press)

7FAO, 2012Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030

Percentage growth in demandfor livestock products: 2000−2030

Demand for livestock commodities will be met –the only question is how

Scenario #1Africa meets

livestock demand byimporting livestock products

Demand for livestock commodities will be met –the only question is how

Scenario #1Africa meets

livestock demand byimporting livestock products

Scenario #2Africa meets

livestock demand byimporting livestock industrial production know-how

Demand for livestock commodities will be met –the only question is how

Scenario #1Africa meets

livestock demand byimporting livestock products

Scenario #2Africa meets

livestock demand byimporting livestock industrial production know-how

Scenario #3Africa meets

livestock demand bytransforming smallholder livestock systems

Trajectory

‘Strong growth’

Sector

Ruminant meat and milk, esp. in SSA, India− Pork in some regions

Issues

− Sustainable productivity - Market access and food safety− Zoonotic outbreaks

Opportunities

Novel approaches spanning sustainable productivity, markets, institutional and policy issues, risk analyses

‘Fragile growth’ Some smallholder andpastoral systems; little part in the production response

− Multiple endemicdiseases− Zoonoses− Adaptive capacity− Movement controls

Mostly public sector interventions, mitigating vulnerability, improving resilience

‘High growth with externalities’

Mostly monogastric− China for all commodities

− Environmental- Drug resistance− Climate impacts on new vector and pathogen dynamics− Disease scares

Modalities of operation with private sector largely established.Managing environment and health risks and consumer demand

Distinguishing opportunities

The ubiquitous mixed crop-and-livestockproduction systems of developing countries

play huge (often unnoticed)roles in global food supplies

Crop-livestock systems

These mixed farming systemsproduce much of our meat and milk

• Mixed systems are an important sourceof ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050

– Europe: 42% mixed temperate

– Latin America: 48% mixed humid

– Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid

• Mixed systems are an equally important source of milk

– Over 50% of milk comes from crop-livestock farms, regardless of region

– The big increases in milk productionto 2050 will continue to be in mixed systems, esp. in Africa/Middle East

Tropical arid and semi-arid rangeland based systems

population density less than 20 persons/km²

length of growing period (LGP) less than 60

days/annum

no significant crop production possible

Largest land use system on earth

35 million km2 – 24% of the total land

area

Support 50% of the World’s livestock

Global greenhouse gas efficiency

per kilogram of animal protein produced

Large livestock production inefficiencies

in the developing world present an opportunity

Herrero et al PNAS (in press)

Multipurpose rangelands

for livelihoods and the

environment

Livestock productivity

“sustainable

intensification”

Environmental

stewardship

“Payment for

Ecosystem

Services”

Potential carbon sequestration by 2040

Source: adapted from:

Thornton and Herrero, PNAS (2010)

Soil fertility: 23% of nitrogen for crop productionin crop-livestock systems comes from manure

Animal traction remains essential forcrop production, especially in sub-Saharan Africa

7 million oxen are the main source of powerfor tilling soil in the Ethiopian highlands

Closing the efficiency gap

NOTE: Production efficiencies in US dairy

Source: Capper et al. 2009

Improved feeds,

breeds & health

=

4-fold increase

in milk

The Economist (23 February, 2015)

The Meat We Eat, the Lives We Lift

http://www.economistinsights.com/opinion/meat-we-eat-lives-we-lift

Thank you!

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