African Development Report 2008/09
Conflict Resolution, Peace and Reconstruction in Africa
Dakar, May 10th 2009
Presented by :
Léonce Ndikumana
Director, Research Department African Development Bank
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What do we know about the nature, causes and consequences of violent conflicts?
How can we use that knowledge to prevent and resolve conflicts, mitigate their consequences, build peace, and facilitate post-
conflict reconstruction in Africa?
What is the role of the Bank in conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction?
Key questionsKey questions
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Overview
Chapter 1: Explaining Violent Conflict
Chapter 2: The Consequences of Conflict
Chapter 3: Conflict Prevention, Resolution and Peace Building Strategies
Chapter 4: Policies for Post-Conflict Economic Recovery and Development
Chapter 5: Bank Support to Conflict-Affected Countries
Contents of the reportContents of the report
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Violent conflicts are mainly internal: inter-state wars have ended.
Some conflicts escalate into civil war involving a rebel movement.
Neighboring countries are sometimes involved.
There are often large civilian casualties.
The nature of violent conflictsThe nature of violent conflicts
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Violent conflicts have been declining in Africa and globallyViolent conflicts have been declining in Africa and globally
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Battle deaths, 1960-2005Battle deaths, 1960-2005
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Conflict risk factorConflict risk factor
Natural resources Low per capita incomeLow economic growthEthnic tensionsRough terrainPolitical repression InequalityFlawed democratization Legacies of colonialism & superpower rivalryConflict trap – a history of conflict increases risk of conflict
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Conflict triggers Conflict triggers
Regime change; military coups
Elections
Neighboring conflicts
Dramatic events
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Heavy death toll Heavy death toll
•Battle deaths;
• Deaths indirectly caused by war (malnutrition, diseases, etc.)
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African refugees by origin, 2006 African refugees by country of asylum, 2006
Refugees
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Internally displaced persons in Africa, 2006Internally displaced persons in Africa, 2006
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Other social consequences Other social consequences
Legacy effects War affects people’s lives long after the fighting has stopped through
diseases, trauma, and deprivation
Spillover effects Neighboring countries are affected through diseases, displacement and
increased risk of conflict
Children and girls Child soldiers – lost opportunities (schooling, employment); exploitation Girls and women are disproportionately affected: gender-based violence; &
victimization of victims
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Economic consequences of conflict Economic consequences of conflict
economic contraction
shortening of time horizons of policy makers and private actors (investors)
financial and human capital flight
changes in sectoral composition of GDP (some sectors are more vulnerable to conflicts)
increased military spending
destruction of infrastructure
poor policy
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Conflict prevention policies Conflict prevention policies
Equitable growth: reduces incentives for conflict
Strengthening democracy as a basis of social contract Protecting minority rights Constraints on the executive: separation of powers
Strengthening neighborhoods
Regional integration
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Conflict resolution & peace building tools Conflict resolution & peace building tools
Power sharing
Peace keeping
Transitional justice: Truth and reconciliation commissions International criminal court
Disarmament, demobilization and reintegration
Small arms control
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Some small arms control instrumentsSome small arms control instruments
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Economic policies are vital for post-conflict reconstruction Economic policies are vital for post-conflict reconstruction
Economic policies help reduce the risk of conflictgrowth and employment creation are crucial for peace and recovery
Distinctive context for economic policy-making in post-conflict setting different objective: promote peace buildingdifferent context due to economic legacies of conflict
Resource-rich countries face two key concernsweak capacity to negotiate favorable terms with extraction companies increased scope for corruption
Public service delivery Institutions are weak and service delivery inefficientConsider an Independent Service Authority
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Aid can be critical to post-conflict economic recoveryAid can be critical to post-conflict economic recovery
Key issues
quality of aidefficiency of delivery mechanism: project versus budgetary
supportabsorptive capacityappropriate timing/schedulingconditionalities and allocation criteria need to be streamlinedaid is never apolitical: it tends to strengthen the government
vis-à-vis the opposition.
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Bank operations in conflict-affected countries Bank operations in conflict-affected countries
Strategic focus: help revive war-ravaged economies by: reestablishing the framework of good governance rehabilitating and reconstructing basic social servicesReestablishing the enabling policy environment for private sector
activities.
Current policy: the Bank’s Fragile State Facility (FSF) 3 windows
Supplemental support windowArrears clearance windowTargeted support window
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The fragile state continuumThe fragile state continuum
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Key lessons and conclusions Key lessons and conclusions
The number of African countries facing violent conflict has declined in recent years.
Empirical studies seeking to explain violent conflict have been heavily contested in terms of methodology, data and interpretation.
Conflicts have massive social and economic consequences.
Strengthening democracy as the basis of the social contract between government and the citizenry would help to prevent violent conflict in Africa.
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Key lessons and conclusions (continued)Key lessons and conclusions (continued)
Economic policies are vital for post-conflict reconstruction and peace building.
Efficient service delivery is critical for rebuilding livelihoods and promoting private sector development.
There is a need for increased and targeted assistance to fragile states, the majority of which are post-conflict countries.
Coordination and harmonization of donor interventions need to be improved to achieve higher aid effectiveness.
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Thank you
For additional information
http://www.afdb.org
