Africa's Development:Promises and Prospects

Africa’s Development:Promises and ProspectsReport of the Africa Progress Panel 2008

AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT: PROMISES AND PROSPECTS

Members of the Africa Progress Panel Mr Kofi AnnanFormer Secretary-General of the United Nationsand Nobel Laureate

Mr Tony BlairFormer Prime Minister of the United Kingdom ofGreat Britain and Northern Ireland

Mr Michel CamdessusFormer Managing Director of the InternationalMonetary Fund

Mr Peter EigenFounder and Chair of the Advisory Council,Transparency International

Mr Bob Geldof KBEMusician, Businessman, Founder and Chair of BandAid, Live Aid and Live8, Co-founder of DATA and amember of the Commission for Africa

Mrs Graça MachelWomen and children's rights activist, President ofthe Foundation for Community Development

Mrs Linah Kelebogile MohohloGovernor, Bank of Botswana

General Olusegun ObasanjoFormer President of Nigeria

Mr Robert E RubinChairman of the Executive Committee, Citigroup,former Secretary of the United States Treasury

Mr Tidjane ThiamGroup Finance Director, Prudential plc, member ofthe Commission for Africa

Professor Muhammad YunusEconomist, Founder of Grameen Bank and NobelLaureate

Rapporteur to the Panel: Vijaya RamachandranActing Secretary to the Panel: Andrew BearparkResearch Assistant: Robin Kraft

AFRICA PROGRESS PANEL 2008

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Preface Four crises dominate the global economy today - afinancial crisis in the developed countries, anenergy crisis that is worsening by the day, climatechange which is becoming both better understoodand more urgent, and a food crisis which isdevastating to the world’s poorest citizens. We havemissed early opportunities to deal with the first twocrises. It is imperative that we meet the challenge ofthe third and take immediate steps to address thefourth. And indeed these crises are linked -increasing the world’s supply of food will requiresubstantial resources as well as a re-thinking ofpolicies towards aid, trade, energy, and climatechange.

Against the background of these immediatechallenges, the substantial progress that Africa hasmade in recent years is threatened. Climatic andgeographic factors are exacerbating the problem offood shortages and of other economic or disaster-related shocks. It may not be easy to overcomethese problems, but the world has a stake inrealising the African continent’s huge potential tothrive. The international community has expressed acommon ambition to see Africa become a well-governed, peaceful, secure, stable and prosperouscontinent. Africa’s leaders and their developmentpartners have undertaken precise commitments insupport of this aim.

The objective of the report of the Africa ProgressPanel is to examine the state of the continent in2008, to focus world leaders’ attention on deliveringon existing commitments and to mobilise resourcesto deal with new challenges, in particular the crisisin food production. The Panel has drawn on thework of various institutions and eminent individualsworking on African issues to present anindependent assessment of progress. We havestrived to combine these assessments with ourexperience and judgement to highlight pressingconcerns, inspire honest debate amongst leadersand civil society, and prompt effective action.

I am honoured to chair this Panel and I invite all ofyou who share our vision for Africa to read and acton this report.

Kofi AnnanChairAfrica Progress Panel

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Findings and recommendations of the AfricaProgress Panel

The Food Crisis. The sharp and sustained increasein world food prices is of great concern. Unlesssome way can be found to halt and reverse thecurrent trend in food prices there will be asignificant increase in hunger, malnutrition, andinfant and child mortality. Many countries arealready experiencing the reversal of decades ofeconomic progress and 100 million people arebeing pushed back into absolute poverty. Ascountries adopt export bans on key commoditiessuch as rice, prices in world markets are rising evenfurther.

In the immediate term, the supply of food to theworld’s most vulnerable citizens must be increasedby raising the level of financial assistance to thegovernments of affected countries and aidagencies. Every effort must also be made toincrease the quantity of food on internationalmarkets, so that the World Food Programme (WFP),relief organisations, and individual governments areable to purchase food as needed.

Developed countries should immediately reviewtheir economic and financial policies to ensure thatthe production of enough food to feed the world isnot threatened. In the short to medium term, safetynets, targeted food aid, cash voucher programmes,and other types of interventions must be alsocarefully reviewed and redesigned as necessary, tomeet the challenge of sustained high food prices.

In the longer term appropriate policies andsubstantial new investments are needed to raiseagricultural productivity and increase foodproduction in Africa and around the world. Thesewill necessarily include investments in key inputssuch as fertilizer, improved feeds, effective watermanagement and new crop varieties, and thelinking of farmers to markets via investments inroads and other types of infrastructure.

Trade. There is a critical need for a rethinking oftrade policy in order to boost agriculturalproduction around the world. Biofuel subsidies andexport controls are not currently the focus ofmultilateral trade negotiations but must beaddressed as part of an overall strategy to liberaliseagricultural production. Trade policy as it concernsfertilizer markets must also be included inmultilateral negotiations—currently, the market forfertilizer is not generating the quantity responseneeded to address the shortage in food production.

Policies on grain storage and buffer stocks mustalso be reviewed. Also, in light of climate changeand the resulting decline of agricultural productivityin some parts of Africa, expanded access tomarkets, fair world trading rules, and improvementsin the capacity to trade are critical for job creation,income and accompanying purchases of food. Insum, efforts to liberalise trade must be combinedwith strategic thinking about the problems we arefacing in the global economy.

There has been no progress on multilateral tradenegotiations since 2005. The G8 has repeatedlyemphasised the importance of the DohaDevelopment Round, but talks have remaineddeadlocked since 2006. While pressing for theimpasse around Doha to be broken, we ask for anearly harvesting of gains in trade liberalisation forAfrica. The G8 and African governments shouldalso prioritise rural development, by strengtheningthe mechanisms by which the poor can haveaccess to markets. Only then will the full benefits ofan open trading system be realised. The delivery ofpromises on aid for trade must not be held hostageto trade deals.

Climate Change. Climate change will affect Africamore severely than other regions of the world, andwill have a devastating impact on food productionand the livelihoods of the rural poor. Many of thepoorest, particularly in urban areas, are alreadyfacing the consequences of high food prices; theloss of agricultural productivity will make thissituation even worse.

The G8 must lend strong support to address theproblems of climate change, by investing inadaptation and the prevention of deforestation, andby increasing funding for renewable energy inAfrica. Renewable energy, such as solar, wind andgeothermal, is very viable in Africa—every effort mustbe made to move away from coal-based projectstowards these sources.

Infrastructure. The availability of infrastructure iscritical to the development of Africa’s private sector,including a reliable supply of energy and safe roads.In particular, connecting farmers to markets hastaken on a new urgency. Strategies to respond tothese needs should be developed in parallel withefforts in the field of water access and sanitation –an MDG made even more relevant by the foodcrisis and the underutilisation of the potential for the


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expansion of irrigation in Africa. Infrastructure iscurrently a key constraint to enterprisedevelopment—almost 60 percent of enterprisesindicate that it is their main brake on expansion.There is enormous scope for improvement ofinfrastructure, with a focus on regional projects.Increased funding from a variety of sources—bothpublic and private—for regional infrastructureprojects is critical.

African governments must make every effort to attract private capital for the funding ofinfrastructure projects; regulatory and pricingreform, as well as monitoring mechanisms toprevent corruption, will need to be ramped up toachieve this goal. Governments should also attractsovereign wealth funds to Africa for investment ininfrastructure—the 1% solution proposed by WorldBank President Robert Zoellick can generate anestimated $30 billion for infrastructure investments.Multilateral banks and other actors can devise newand better instruments for underwriting andguaranteeing investments in frontier markets as wellas at regional and sub-national levels.

China and India, as well as Malaysia, the UnitedArab Emirates and others, have become significantinvestors in infrastructure in Africa. China is nowAfrica’s third largest trading partner and, togetherwith other new entrants, has brought newdynamism and significant new resources. Thesecountries have created greater opportunities forAfrica’s development, particularly in the areas ofinfrastructure, development finance, and trade. IfAfrica’s development is to stay on track, it is crucialfor both old and new actors to comply with agreed-upon principles of cooperation in the areas of aid,trade, development finance, and debt sustainability.

Aid Levels and Aid Quality. While the G8 must playa leading role in addressing the food crisis, it mustalso keep its existing pledges towards Africa’sprogress. The G8 has made substantial progress inthe area of debt relief, helping to lift millions ofAfricans out of poverty. Individual countries havealso made significant increases in their levels ofassistance. However, the pledge to doubleassistance to Africa by 2010, made at the G8Summit at Gleneagles in 2005, is not likely to befulfilled. The volatility of aid continues to beproblematic as well, imposing a great burden oncountries’ abilities to plan investments.

There are several ways that the G8 can deliverassistance more effectively, particularly in the areaof programmable aid:

1) The G8 must make funding sources andtimetables available in a timely manner, alongwith stated pledges. Each member countryshould provide a detailed outline on thepotential and availability of funding as well ashow and when funds will be delivered forstated pledges. This information should bereleased immediately prior to or after eachsummit, to ensure that pledges and statementsmade at the summits are honoured fully. Finally,funding shortfalls against the 2010 targetsshould be addressed immediately— through aspecial plan to meet the pledge made atGleneagles.

2) The proportion of aid that is tied must beclearly identified by every member of the G8,and must be decreased over time.

3) The G8 must take steps to reduce the volatilityof aid, and support innovative efforts toimprove aid quality. Providing information onforthcoming aid disbursements in a timelymanner will help to reduce volatility, as willcommitments that are made over a multi-yeartime horizon.

4) In light of existing pledges as well as the needfor additional resources to address the foodcrisis and the problems of climate change, theG8 should renew its discussion of innovativefinancing mechanisms.

Good Governance. The Africa Peer ReviewMechanism (APRM) launched by the NewPartnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), theAfrican Union Convention on Corruption, and theExtractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)have had significant success in improvinggovernance. Sustainable democracies are emergingin many countries although setbacks in elections insome countries have been a great disappointment.African governments are increasing their revenuebase and using more of these resources to meetthe costs of economic development. In addition,civil society is playing an important role in holdinggovernments accountable in many countries.

But there is still much work to be done. Some

countries are yet to move to healthy, functioningdemocracies. And other parts of Africa continue toexperience terrible and violent conflict, as well aseconomic and social chaos. In particular, theconflicts in Darfur and eastern Congo continue totake many lives and threaten the stability of theregion. Zimbabwe is in total economic collapse withsevere political and social implications. Theresolution of these crises will require greater andmore consistent efforts by the African Union as wellas leadership by individual African governments,and the international community as a whole. StrongG8 action to stop corruption by its own businessesin Africa must complement Africa’s efforts for bettergovernance.

G8 support for NEPAD and the APRM is critical aswell. While the G8 has expressed support fortraining peacekeepers and for the Africa StandbyForce, levels of funding are still inadequate. Ingeneral, the African Union's potential as a home-grown peacekeeping body and regional forum isseverely limited by resource and capacityconstraints. Donors have so far failed toappropriately fund and equip its operations inDarfur. This tragedy calls now for exceptional effortsfrom all parties involved. African governments mustalso lend more financial support to the AfricanUnion in order to make progress on stated goals offighting corruption, strengthening institutions,ending conflict, and improving governance.

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Analysis IntroductionGross domestic product per capita in Africa hasrisen steadily since 1994. According to the mostrecent estimates of the International Monetary Fund,the rate of growth has reached 6.6% in 2007—a rateexpected to be maintained broadly in 2008. This isnot as high as Asian developing countries in 2007(9.7%), but exceeds growth in the Middle East(5.8%) and Latin America (5.6%). Economic growthin several non-oil exporting countries has been inthe range of 5.5 % for the past decade; thesecountries have also seen significant improvementsin the management of their economies. Macro-economic reforms, some still in process, are alreadyproducing significant results in terms of growth andstability, and the level of inflation is under controlalmost everywhere. Foreign direct investment intoAfrica has increased significantly since the early1990s. Many countries have begun to diversifytowards a widening range of production of goods andservices and have moved away from an exclusivedependence on natural resources and extractiveindustries. Even more encouraging is that thesefavorable economic trends have taken place in agenerally improving political environment. Morecountries have moved towards multi-party electionsproviding opportunities for voices to be heard andstrengthening accountability of governments.

The number of people living in poverty has leveledoff over the past few years, and Africa’s poverty ratehas declined by almost 6 percentage points since2000. There have been significant improvements inhealth and education. Primary school enrollmenthas increased by 36 percentage points between1999 and 2005 and infant and child mortality havedeclined in many parts of Africa (OECD-DAC,2008). Significant efforts are being made to combatdisease with positive results on the ground. InSeptember 2007, the Global Fund for AIDS, Malariaand Tuberculosis received $10 billion—theseresources will go far in terms of combating thesediseases in Africa.

Yet, there are troubling signs as well. While somecountries are growing, others are falling behind.Some 20 countries, accounting for a third ofAfrica’s population, have grown by only 2.1 % peryear over the past decade. Many of these countriesare affected by conflict, and many have very weakpolicy environments (Collier, 2007). The poorperformance of these countries affects Africa’soverall performance—Africa is currently not on

course to meet the Millennium Development Goalof halving poverty by 2015 (relative to 1990 levels).In 2015, it is estimated that 31 million Africans willbe living on less than $1/day (Figure 1).

Right now, 33 million children in Africa of primaryschool age are not in school. Some parts of Africacontinue to experience high levels of conflict. About300 million Africans do not have a reliable supply ofclean drinking water, and 450 million do not havegood access to proper sanitation (WDI, 2006).Much of Africa is without access to clean, modernenergy and is forced to rely on biomass fuels.Problems due to environmental degradation andclimate change are already manifesting themselves.On top of all of this, rising food prices are affectingtens of millions of Africans, especially those living inurban areas, and are threatening to wipe out gainsmade over the last several decades. The food crisisis a major setback which is creating a majorhumanitarian emergency. It also requires animmediate and thoughtful response on the beststrategy to be implemented in order to enable ruralpopulations to take advantage of the new level ofagricultural prices and increase food production.

Against this backdrop, we will assess progress onthe G8’s commitments to Africa at the varioussummits, particularly those held at Kananaskis andGleneagles. We will also raise the critical issue ofaid quality, look at how Africa must cope withclimate change while investing in much-neededagricultural production and infrastructure, andcomment on the role of emerging donors in Africa’sdevelopment dialogue. While we address what webelieve are the most critical issues for Africa, weknow that there are many important problems thatwe do not discuss in this report but will likely be thesubjects of future reports.

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Figure 1: Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa(% of population)

50

40

30

20

10

01990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source: World Bank (2008a)

46.741.1

31.4

23.4

We will also focus on the actions needed by Africangovernments to implement their stated goals ofgood governance and poverty reduction. Worldstability and sustainable development could be butseverely hindered if poverty and disease in Africaare not vigorously fought. A higher rate of growth inAfrica means an expansion of global trade andmore economic opportunities for people both withinand outside Africa. This is why the present efforts ofAfrican governments are extremely important, aswell as the deepening of their partnerships withtraditional and new donors.

The Food CrisisWe are currently in the midst of a major food crisis,which threatens to destroy years, if not decades, ofeconomic progress. Rising food prices dis-proportionately affect the world’s poorest citizens—the World Bank estimates that as many as 100million people will be severely affected by the highprice of food (World Bank, 2008b). A significantproportion of this group lives in Africa, in countrieswhich were already struggling to address problemsof chronic malnutrition, hunger and infant mortality.Figure 2 shows the price of wheat, soybeans andrice as well as an overall index of foodcommodities.

Four basic drivers appear to be stimulating rapidgrowth in demand for food commodities: (1) risingliving standards in China, India, and other rapidlygrowing developing countries, which lead toincreased demand for livestock products and thefeedstuffs to produce them; (2) stimulus frommandates for corn-based ethanol in the UnitedStates and the ripple effects beyond the corneconomy; (3) the rapid depreciation of the U.S.dollar against the Euro and a number of otherimportant currencies, which drives up the price of

commodities priced in U.S. dollars; and (4)speculation from new financial players searching forbetter returns than in stocks or real estate, alsostimulated by the declining dollar (Timmer, 2008).

Africa is facing the worst consequences of the foodcrisis. The Food and Agricultural Organisation notesthat of the 37 countries hardest hit, 21 are in Africa.Four of these countries - Lesotho, Somalia,Swaziland and Zimbabwe - are classified as having“exceptional shortfalls” in food, four more - Eritrea,Liberia, Mauritania and Sierra Leone - have“widespread lack of access” and another 13countries are classified as countries with “severelocalized food insecurity” (FAO, 2008). Unless someway can be found to stop the rise in food prices, itis likely that there will be a sharp increase in infantand child mortality as well as an increase in adultsdying from infectious diseases. As individualcountries adopt export bans or place very largeorders on key commodities such as rice, prices inworld markets are rising even further.

In the immediate term, the international communitymust increase the supply of food aid, by increasingassistance to the World Food Programme as well asother channels of delivery. The WFP is requestingadditional emergency food aid funding in the amountof $750 million. Recent aid announcements by G8governments are heartening and may cover someof the WFP’s most urgent needs but commitmentsare yet to be made for 2009 and beyond. Foodprices have been steadily rising for some years nowand there are no signs of a reversal in this trend;

until better longer term arrangements are put inplace, the WFP’s work will need to be sustained inorder to deliver food aid to the most vulnerablepopulations in Africa and elsewhere.

Every effort must also be made to increase thequantity of food available for purchase oninternational markets, so that the WFP andindividual governments are able to purchase foodas needed. To this end, countries must undertakean immediate review of grain stockpiles, takeappropriate action to end hoarding and speculation,and avoid shortsighted and self-defeatingbehaviours that try to increase domestic supply butend up compounding the imbalances in theinternational market.

It is also critical that the developed countries reviewtheir biofuel subsidies and mandates immediately.The magnitude of the crisis is such that agriculturalpolicies must be reassessed in all parts of theworld. Developed countries in particular couldn’t

play a leadership role in solving this crisis if theywere to continue with business as usual. In theshort to medium term, safety nets such as targetedfood aid, cash voucher programs and other types ofinterventions must also be carefully reviewed andredesigned as necessary, to meet the challenge ofsustained high food prices.

In the longer term, significant new investments areneeded to raise agricultural productivity in Africa. Asthe chair of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in


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Figure 2: Food Crop Prices, 1998-2008(Index January 1998 = 100)

300

250

200

150

100

501998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Source: Wolf (2008)

Food commodities indexWheatSoyabeansRice

Figure 3: Countries Most At Risk from High Food Prices

Source: World Food Programme (2008) !high vulnerability low vulnerability"

Africa (and of this Panel) says, “If there ever was atime for an African Green Revolution, it is now….We must implement immediate solutions for today’scrisis, and do so in the context of a long-termconcerted effort to transform small-holder agriculture,to increase its productivity and sustainability, andend poverty and hunger” (Annan, 2008).

The response in food supply to the current crisiswill likely take some time to produce results (as wasthe case in 1973-74) and must receive sustainedlevels of support. An increase in the supply of foodwill require the development and use of new croptechnologies. This is an enormous challenge - thereis little unused high-quality land left, input pricessuch as that of fertilizer are rising, and the yield-potential of current technologies has been static fordecades. Governments and the internationalcommunity must make every effort to investsubstantial resources in the development of newseed varieties, extension systems, and key inputssuch as fertilizer, in order to boost the production offood. Africa must also have appropriate access toworld markets to purchase food as well as seeds,fertilizer, and other key inputs, at prices that are notdistorted by protectionist policies or hoarding.Institutions - at the international, regional, nationaland local level - that are focused on thedevelopment of new technologies that will increasecrop yields or improve resistance to drought anddisease should be provided with the resources theyneed. Figure 4 shows the schematic of a coherent

global response to the current crisis, in theimmediate, medium and long term.

TradeThere is a critical need for a rethinking of tradepolicy in the context of the urgent need to boostagricultural production around the world. Biofuelsubsidies and export controls are not currently thefocus of multilateral trade negotiations but must beaddressed as part of an overall strategy to liberaliseagricultural production. Trade liberalisation of inputmarkets is also very important—in the longer term,an increase in the production of fertilizer isnecessary to raise yields. Currently, the fertilizermarket is far from efficient and is not generating thequantity response that is needed to address theshortage in food production. Policies on grainstorage and buffer stocks should also be reviewed.In light of climate change and the resulting declineof agricultural productivity in some parts of Africa,expanded access to markets, fair world tradingrules, and improvements in the capacity to trade areabsolutely critical in terms of enabling millions ofAfricans to generate enough income to purchasefood.

In the longer term, trade policy must work to enablemillions of Africans to get jobs and grow theirincomes. Initiatives such as the U.S. African Growthand Opportunity Act (AGOA), which offers duty-freeaccess to 37 countries and has simplified rules oforigin, and the European Union’s Everything But

Arms, which offers duty-free, quota-free marketaccess to nearly all products from 34 Africancountries, are to be commended for their efforts toopen up markets to Africa’s exports. The EuropeanUnion is negotiating Economic PartnershipAgreements (EPAs) with several clusters ofcountries including several in Africa; countries withEPAs will have tariff- and quota-free access tomarkets in EU member countries, with shorttransition periods for sugar and rice. The G8 hasreiterated its commitment to duty-free and quota-free market access for LDCs, and has providedstrong support for the Aid for Trade initiative. TheU.S. and Japan dominated aid-for-trade delivery in2006, and several other donors have madesignificant contributions.

But multilateral efforts, particularly the DohaDevelopment Round, remain deadlocked. While theG8 has emphasised the need to conclude the DohaDevelopment Round, talks have stalled on a varietyof issues. The commitment to eliminate all forms ofagricultural subsidies was dropped from the 2007G8 communiqué. Many countries continue toimpose tariffs on imports of agriculturalcommodities which have had a significant, negativeimpact on Africa’s exports. Recently, there havebeen renewed efforts to restart the Doha Round—there is scope for early harvesting of gains for Africafrom this new effort.

With rising food prices, the “policy space” provisionof previous G8 statements is particularly important.The G8 has recognised that “least-developedcountries face specific problems in integrating intothe international trading system” and is committedto “work to ensure that there is appropriate flexibilityin the DDA negotiations” so that countries can“decide, plan and sequence their overall economicreforms.” Progress against this provision is hard tomeasure, but we want to emphasise that it must notbe forgotten.

It is worth noting that African countries haveundertaken their own efforts to reduce intra-continental trade barriers via the formation ofregional free trade areas. Kenya, Tanzania andUganda have created a customs union in the formof the East African Community. Several countries inAfrica are in process of reforming their businessenvironments, especially in the area of customsclearance and business regulations (World BankDoing Business, 2008). Even as African

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Figure 4: A Coherent Response to the Food Crisis(Index January 1998 = 100)

Long term Medium Term Immediateglobal response involving governments, UN agencies, IFIs and NGOs

Source: World Food Programme (2008)

policyreform

agricultural inputs(seeds, fertilizer)

emergency food & safety nets(child nutrition, school feeding)

cash & vouchers

balance of payments/financial support

urgent agriculture inputs

increased agriculturalproduction

community worksprogrammes

governments undertake these efforts, they will needsome flexibility to be sure that their poorest citizensdo not suffer from the negative aspects of tradeliberalisation. And finally, while agriculture is wherethe greatest potential gains lie in the Doha Round,market access is by no means the only solution. Itis also critical that both the G8 and Africangovernments prioritise rural development, includingmechanisms by which the poor can be connectedto markets. Only then will the full benefits of anopen trading system be realised (Elliott, 2006).

Climate ChangeGlobal warming is well underway, and itsconsequences are already visible in Africa. Severedrought lurks behind the Darfur conflict, forexample, and it is very likely that the problem willworsen rapidly. The current crisis of high foodprices may also be the result of climate change—some argue that the drought in Australia is causedby factors related to this phenomenon.

Figure 5 displays the projected impact of globalwarming on African agriculture if nothing is done torestrain carbon emissions. A red swathe, signifyingagricultural productivity losses greater than 25%,covers much of developing world, and Africancountries are projected to be among the worst-hit.Losses of the projected magnitude will beunprecedented, causing huge setbacks in thestruggle against poverty and creating millions ofimpoverished environmental refugees. This will onlyexacerbate the ongoing trend of rising food prices—one which shows no signs of decreasing anytime in

the near future. It is now evident that withoutaddressing the problem of climate change, Africacannot achieve most of the MillenniumDevelopment Goals.

A difficult and unsettled issue is that ofaccumulated carbon dioxide emissions by industrialcountries. In due course, an agreement must bereached on an equitable way to share the climatechange bill, both past and future. The G8 shouldconsider a special contribution, beyond currentpledged amounts, for the adaptation of the mostvulnerable countries. And developing countriesmust recognize that they face an emissionsproblem themselves. Even if industrialized countrieshalted all carbon dioxide emissions immediately,business-as-usual practices in the developing worldwould continue to cause global warming (Wheelerand Ummel, 2007). Climate change must beaddressed by focusing on reducing emissionseverywhere—countries must work together and helpeach other to reduce emissions rather thanapportioning blame.

Adaptation AssistanceThis climate interdependence of developed anddeveloping countries makes large-scale adaptationassistance necessary, as climate change that isalready inevitable will have major impacts on Africa.A first attempt at establishing a multilateralapproach to adaptation assistance took place at theUnited Nation’s Nairobi conference in 2006 andwas amended by the Bali conference in 2007. TheAdaptation Fund will be financed by a 2% tax on

Clean Development Mechanism transactions,managed by the Global Environment Facility, andopen to tenders from a variety of developmentinstitutions and national governments. This structureprovides a useful vehicle for adaptation assistance,but several caveats apply. Evidence-basedallocations will be critical; conventional approachesbased on standard per capita allocations or politicalcriteria would be extremely wasteful, becauseAfrican countries face very different conditions.Recent work indicates that agricultural productivitylosses in Sub-Saharan Africa will vary from over50% in Sudan and Senegal to around 5% in Kenya(Cline, 2007). For efficient allocation, the adaptationfund should tailor the scale and focus of countryprogrammes to local conditions.

Adaptive agriculture, urban relocation and micro-insurance coverage should be the focus ofassistance in severely-threatened countries such asSudan and Senegal. Programs combining adaptiveinfrastructure and micro-insurance should be thefocus for countries facing high flood-disaster risks,such as Benin and Mozambique. Existing work inhealth and agriculture can also incorporateadaptation assistance with the right amount ofpolitical will and leadership from both Africangovernments and the G8 member countriesfinancing these efforts.

It is also time for the G8 and the internationalcommunity to fundamentally transform the way itlooks at climate change. Lord Nicholas Sternestimated in his path-breaking report that the costof carbon dioxide is $80/ton at the very least (Stern Review, 2006). The Stern Review showed that if we do not act now, the overall cost of climatechange will be equivalent to losing at least 5% ofglobal GDP per year, and possibly a lot more.Based on the estimates in this and other reports,the annual funding requirement for worldwideadaptation assistance has been estimated in therange of $28-$67 billion by the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC). In light of these estimates, multilateralsources will have to be found for many billions inadaptation assistance for Africa. If these funds arechanneled through the Global Environment Facility,this institution will become responsible for muchlarger grant funds than it has ever administered.This will only work if the GEF operates at thehighest standards of transparency, efficiency andaccountability.


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Figure 5: Projected Global Agricultural Productivity Losses

Source: Cline (2007)

Losses

25+%

15-25%

5-15%

1-5%

Gains

1-5%

5-15%

15-25%

25+%

Not available

Preventing DeforestationDevelopment assistance has long included programsfor tropical forest conservation, which is importantto limit the enormous volume of emissions fromforest-clearing in Africa and other developing regions.After numerous failures of conventional programs,however, the global community is increasinglyfocused on direct payments for forest conservationthat will compensate for the value in other usesforegone. An appropriate multilateral fund for thispurpose, the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility(FCPF), was launched by the World Bank and 9donor countries in conjunction with the Baliconference in December 2007. The Congo ForestBasin Initiative is also a large-scale project to preventdeforestation, with substantial funding from the U.K.and other donors. The FCPF has nine initial donorsand an initial subscription of $160 million. This canonly be considered a down payment, since theUNFCCC estimates total forest conservationpayments at $12 billion annually. Administration ofthese payments will be particularly challenging inAfrica, with associated new requirements for forestmonitoring, land-tenure clarification, and nationalenforcement capacity. Finally, the Clean DevelopmentMechanism needs to prioritise the prevention ofdeforestation to a greater extent—this might enableAfrican countries with forests to get more access toresources to battle deforestation.

Exploiting Renewable EnergyAfrica has enormous potential for energy productionfrom renewable sources—solar, hydro, wind, nuclearand geothermal.1 Almost all Sub-Saharan Africancountries have sufficient renewable resources,exploitable with current technologies, to satisfy manytimes their current energy demand. To illustrate thispoint, consider the case of solar thermal power.Figure 6 shows why Africa could be the world’sfuture solar superpower—daily average solar radiationlevels in Africa are very high. As the world movestoward a global system for internalising the cost ofcarbon emissions, solar power will have increasingappeal.

Recent research shows that baseload-scale solarthermal power is now lower-cost than high-efficiency coal-fired power at a carbon dioxide

emissions charge well below the level consistentwith the European Union’s new climate action plan,and far below the level recommended by the SternReview (Wheeler, 2008). Using carbon charges toguide project selection is now feasible, becausenew bilateral and multilateral clean technologyfunds are available to finance the incremental costgap between dirty and clean power. The WorldBank has recently launched a Clean TechnologyFund, for which the US, UK and Japan have alreadypledged several billion dollars. The scope of thisfund must be defined to focus on major shiftstoward clean energy as opposed to changes at themargin. Also, clean energy funds will have to growtenfold in scale to handle the global problem: theInternational Energy Agency estimates that $30billion annually will be required to close theincremental cost gap between clean andconventional energy investments.

At the recent U.N. climate change conference inBali, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called fora revolutionary change in the world’s energy mix tominimise the risk of catastrophic global warming.Furthermore, recent price increases in coal and

equipment prices have drastically narrowed the costgap between coal and solar thermal power. Basedon the Stern Review, the work of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change andthe enormous amount of analytical work that hasfollowed, the World Bank, other multilateral banks,and members of the donor community must stopfunding coal-based power plants in the currentform, and avail themselves of analytical andfinancing instruments to account for the true cost ofcarbon. Multilateral institutions can also play acentral role in generating aggregate global demandfor renewable sources of energy - this is likely to belarge enough to affect learning curves.

InfrastructureInvestments in infrastructure are central toachieving a lasting solution to the current crisis;roads, power and water are central to the ability offarmers to produce and distribute food.Infrastructure is also central to economic growth,jobs, income generation, and a productive privatesector. Employment generation is particularlyimportant given the high proportion of youth inmost African countries. Table 1 shows the low

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1 As mentioned earlier, there may well be an adverse impact onfood production and prices caused by substitution away fromfood crops towards some types of biofuels. It is an issue thatmust be kept in mind as we deal with climate change, and mustbe factored into any calculation on the mix of renewable energiesthat make sense in the African context.


Figure 6: Solar Radiation in Africa

Source: United Nations (2005)

kWh/m2/day

7.0-8.0

6.0-7.0

5.0-6.0

4.0-5.0

coverage and high cost of Africa’s stock ofinfrastructure.

A comprehensive set of Enterprise Surveys (WorldBank, 2004-2007) also show that the lack ofinfrastructure is one of the most serious constraintsto the growth of Africa’s private sector. Of allenterprises surveyed across the African continent,almost 60 percent indicated that the lack ofelectricity is their top constraint. Figure 7 shows thenumber of days that a power outage occurred eachyear in the countries surveyed. Comparable data forChina (in this and subsequent tables) show that theburden of power outages is far smaller forbusinesses in that country. Not surprisingly, the

data also show that large businesses are able tocope much better than small and medium-sizedbusinesses—a much higher percentage of largebusinesses own generators. Analysis of these andother data shows that poor infrastructure is a keydriver of the high cost of the business environment,and has seriously hampered profits in the Africanprivate sector (Eifert et al, 2008).

As discussed earlier, Africa has tremendouspotential for the production of renewable energy—reserves of renewable resources, including hydro,geothermal, wind and solar, are the highest in theworld (Buys et al. 2007). There is scope forharvesting these renewable resources—in both

small- and large-scale projects. For homes andbusinesses in sparsely populated areas with noaccess to the public grid, solar panels and othersmall-scale energy sources such as micro-hydrowould enable access to modern energy, therebyreducing the enormous dependence on biomass-based fuels. Large-scale generation of power at aregional level, through the use of solar thermaltechnology, is seen as very viable as well. Regionalhydro power projects, including the ongoing effortsto harness the power of the Inga River, have thepotential to meet a significant share of Africa’spower needs. The time has come to make a realpush towards helping Africa get on a carbon-freepath of power generation by using the bestavailable renewable energy technologies.

There is potential to address the transportbottleneck as well. A network of roads connectingall sub-Saharan capitals and other cities withpopulations over 500,000, along with the AfricanDevelopment Bank’s proposed corridor network(Figure 8), is estimated to result in an expansion ofoverland trade of about $250 billion over fifteenyears, with both direct and indirect benefits forAfrica’s rural poor (Buys et al, 2006). Capillary roadnetworks connecting villages and smaller towns tothese main roads will likely generate additionalgains. Roads are critical not just to the privatesector but also for getting children to school,delivering health care services, and for providinghumanitarian aid. Currently, overland shipmentsbetween South Africa and Nigeria—the two largesteconomies in Africa—are almost nonexistentbecause of the poor quality of roads in between.

Investments in roads should be accompanied byadequate investments in road safety. Today, only12% of roads are paved (WDI, 2007), and Africa isestimated to have a very high road death raterelative to the size of its vehicle fleet. It is estimatedthat 10% of road deaths occur in Sub-SaharanAfrica, where only 4% of motor vehicles areregistered, in contrast to the developed world’s 14%share despite accounting for 60% of registeredmotor vehicles (Jacobs and Aeron-Thomas, 2000).Road safety is an issue in need of urgent attention,in terms of existing roads as well as newconstruction, and has typically not received enoughattention or funding. As interest in infrastructure isgrowing and new players are entering the picture, itis very important for road construction to reflectsafety concerns and that every available technology


12

Table 1: Low Coverage and High Cost of Africa’s Infrastructure

Figure 7: Number of days per year that businesses suffer power outages

Source: World Bank Global Monitoring Report (2008)

Coverage deficit High costsItem Sub-Saharan Other developing Item Sub-Saharan Other developing

Africa countries Africa countriesPaved road density 31 134 Power tariffs 0.05-0.30 0.05-0.10(per 1,000 sq.km) (US$c/kWh)Total road density 137 211(per 1,000 sq.km)Mainline density 10 78 Road freight tariffs 0.05-0.25 0.01-0.04(lines per 1,000 people) (US$c/ton-km)Mobile density 55 86(lines per 1,000 people)Generation capacity 37 326 International phone call 0.80 0.20(MW per million people) (US$/3-min. call to the Electricity coverage 16 41 United States)(% of population)Improved Water 60 72 Internet dial-up service 50 15-25(% of population) (US$/month) Improved Sanitation 34 51(% of population)

250

200

150

100

50

0

Nam

ibia

Sout

h Af

rica

Mau

ritiu

sBo

tsw

ana

Mal

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soth

oCh

ina

Swaz

iland

Sene

gal

Gui

nea

Biss

auZa

mbi

aM

aurit

ania

Tanz

ania

Burk

ina

Faso

Nige

rM

alaw

iBe

nin

Mad

agas

car

Keny

aAn

gola

Cam

eroo

nM

ozam

biqu

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pe V

erde

Buru

ndi

Tanz

ania

Rwan

daUg

anda

Cong

o, D

RG

uine

aG

ambi

a

Source: World Bank Enterprise Surveys (2004-2007)

is considered to reduce the rate of death and injuryon African roads.

Africa is also off target in terms of meeting theMillennium Development Goals related to water andsanitation (Figure 9). Management of waterresources and the need for clean drinking water are of desperate importance in sub-Saharan Africa.The G8 has stated that it will “maintain itscommitments” on water management, but thefinancing shortfall for water and sanitation isestimated to be around $3 billion (UN HDR, 2006).

There has been some success in improving the

supply of water. The African Development Bank’sRural Water Supply and Sanitation Initiative (RWSSI)has successfully mobilised the major internationaldonors as well as African governments to adoptRWSSI as the common framework for resourcemobilisation and investment for the development ofrural water supply and sanitation services in Africa(AfDB, 2007). The main target is to extend theprovision of safe drinking water and basic sanitationto 80% of the rural populations by 2015, from thebase level of about 47% coverage for water supplyand 44% for sanitation in 2000.

Initiatives such as WRASSI and the African WaterFacility are in need of support, attention and funding.WRASSI addresses some of the most difficultaspects of the problem with particular attention tothe initiatives and management capabilities of localrural communities. After a relatively slow start,WRASSI is gaining momentum and according tothe AfDB, some 30 million people will gain accessto water and sanitation before the end of 2010.Along with the rapid rate of urbanisation, the foodcrisis compounds the need to address the issue ofwater. The dramatic underutilisation of irrigationmust be emphasised—the Africa Water Vision for2025 states that only 6% of cultivated area in Africais irrigated (UNECA et al, 2000).

Infrastructure development is a top priority ofNEPAD and the African Development Bank. The G8launched the Infrastructure Consortium for Africa in2005 to ensure that financing is available forinfrastructure, but funding levels (while rising) arestill below the levels recommended by theCommission for Africa and the High Level PanelReport of the African Development Bank (HighLevel Panel Report, 2007). Most recently, theInfrastructure Consortium for Africa concluded,based on the Africa Infrastructure CountryDiagnostic, that infrastructure needs are of theorder of $38 billion per year; about two thirds ofthis is required for the energy sector (ICA, 2008). In2007, Consortium members committed about $10billion in infrastructure funding. The EU-AfricaInfrastructure Trust Fund, launched in 2007, is alsoreceiving pledges from several EU member states.

African governments must also make every effort todevelop public-private partnerships (PPPs) toattract capital for the funding of infrastructureprojects. PPPs are often mentioned as key toimproving services and infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa, where government capacity andrevenue can be too limited to support the volumeand size of needed investments outlined in thisreport (Farlam, 2005). The opportunity to leverageprivate expertise and share project risk is attractivein many ways, but governments cannot expectPPPs to be a magic bullet. As with any governmentprocurement project, corruption during tendering,implementation and monitoring can make a viableproject turn bad very quickly. And ensuringappropriate tariffs, project terms and regulatoryconditions is as essential as it is complex. Despitethese difficulties, successful PPPs in Sub-SaharanAfrica show that they are useful instruments,provided the project, responsibilities andexpectations are clearly defined.

Regulatory and pricing reforms will need to beramped up to achieve this goal, as will monitoringmechanisms to prevent corruption. The existence ofbest-practice models for regulations, pricing andmaintenance, and the capacity of multilateral banksand others to deliver technical assistance in thisarea, is central to these efforts. For example,maintenance can be included in constructioncontracts, outsourced to independent providers, orcontracted in other ways. User charges can alsoplay a role in funding construction and maintenancecosts. Agreed tariff policies must be vigorously

13


Figure 8: Proposed AfDB Corridors and the Trans-African Road Network

Capitals and Cities with a population above 500,000

Trans-African Road Network

ADB proposed corridors

Source: Buys et al. (2006)

Figure 9: Population without access to improvedwater source or sanitation facilities (%)

90

60

30

01990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source: World Development Indicators (2006), based on HumanDevelopment Report 2006

Without access to an improved water source actual goal

Without access to improved sanitation facilities actual goal

68

51

64

42

34

26

implemented and competitive bidding, in the mosttransparent manner possible, must be the focus ofall infrastructure projects.

African governments can also attract sovereignwealth funds to Africa for investment ininfrastructure—if these funds invest just 1% of theirportfolios in Africa, this will generate significant newresources for investment in the region. During arecent speech, World Bank President RobertZoellick stated that sovereign wealth funds hold anestimated $3 trillion in assets and argued that "ifthe World Bank Group can help create theplatforms and benchmarks, the investment of evenone % of their assets would draw $30 billion toAfrican growth, development, and opportunity”(Zoellick, 2008). This investment could be leveragedinto attracting different types of funds to solveinfrastructure financing needs. Another way that theWorld Bank and other actors can facilitateinvestments in infrastructure is by devising new andbetter instruments for underwriting and guaranteeinginvestments in so-called frontier markets.

It is worth noting that China and India, as well asMalaysia, the United Arab Emirates and others,have become significant investors in Africa. China isnow Africa’s third largest trading partner andtogether with other new entrants, has brought newdynamism and significant new resources. The newplayers have created greater opportunities forAfrica’s development, particularly in the areas ofinfrastructure, development finance, and trade. Theiractivity also raises the importance of debtsustainability for African governments. If Africa’sdevelopment is to stay on track, it is crucial for bothold and new actors to comply with agreed-uponprinciples of cooperation in the areas of aid, trade,and development finance.

Aid Levels and Aid QualityEven while the food crisis imposes new burdens onAfrica’s resources, it is important that the G8 doesnot fall behind on promises already made.

Africa has received steadily increasing levels ofassistance since 2002 (Figure 2). But in recentyears, most of it has been in the form of debt relief,rather than programmable aid.

There is no doubt that debt relief has beenbeneficial to recipient countries. But with theMultilateral Debt Relief Initiative reaching its

conclusion, the resource gap is again widening.Equally troubling is that aid has not been sufficientlyredirected towards countries with relatively goodpolicy performance (OECD-DAC, 2008). Asignificant part of aid is still tied—a curious anomalyfor donors who typically promote market-orientedinstitutions and reforms. Finally, volatility in thedisbursement of aid has imposed a real burden onmany African countries.

Aid and Debt ReliefThe Monterrey Summit for Financing forDevelopment and the G8 Summit in Kananaskis,Canada in 2002 were the founding events of a newpartnership between the G8 and Africa. The G8Africa Action Plan adopted in Kananaskis statedthat aid “will ensure that no country genuinelycommitted to poverty reduction, good governanceand economic reform will be denied the chance toachieve the Millennium goals through lack offinance”. The authors of the New Partnership forAfrica’s Development (NEPAD) were invited to theKananaskis summit to launch a new relationshipbetween the G8 and Africa, with the goal of ending

poverty on the African continent. The Action Planfor Africa offered support in several key areas—promotion of peace and security, improvement ofgovernance and institutions, implementation of debtrelief, tackling HIV/AIDS, increasing productivity inagriculture, and improving the management ofwater resources. The Action Plan also stated that itwould be closely linked to the objectives of NEPADwith respect to improving governance, strengtheninginstitutions and addressing the problem of corruption.

The G8 Summit at Gleneagles in 2005 markedanother significant step towards increasingassistance to Africa. This summit resulted in majorpledges from G8 member countries towards debtcancellation and the achievement of the MillenniumDevelopment Goals. Apart from the G8 summits,two summits on aid effectiveness, in Paris (2005)and in Accra (upcoming), focus attention onimproving the delivery of aid to the developingworld.

But any assessment of progress on delivering onthe G8’s commitments in the years since the


14

Table 2: The Status of Debt Relief Efforts in Africa (in millions of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), as of August 2007)

Source: IMF (2007)

HIPC Decision HIPC Completion Total HIPIC and Point Point MDRI Debt Relief

Completion Point HIPCsBenin Jul-00 Mar-03 54Burkina Faso Jul-00 Apr-02 103Cameroon Oct-00 Apr-06 183Ethiopia Nov-01 Apr-04 126Ghana Feb-02 Jul-04 314Madagascar Dec-00 Oct-04 145Malawi Dec-00 Aug-06 52Mali Sep-00 Mar-03 112Mauritania Feb-00 Jun-02 69Mozambique Apr-00 Sep-01 191Niger Dec-00 Apr-04 94Rwanda Dec-00 Apr-05 71Sao Tome & Principe Dec-00 Mar-07 1Senegal Jun-00 Apr-04 133Sierra Leone Mar-02 Dec-06 183Tanzania Apr-00 Nov-01 303Uganda Feb-00 May-00 198Zambia Dec-00 Apr-05 907Interim HIPCsBurundi Aug-05 Floating 0Chad May-01 Floating 9Democratic Republic of Congo Jul-03 Floating 3Republic of Congo Mar-06 Floating --The Gambia Dec-00 Floating 0Guinea Dec-00 Floating 5Guinea-Bissau Dec-00 Floating 1Interim HIPC under the original HIPC initiativeCôte d'Ivoire Mar-98 -

Kananaskis summit of 2002 shows a mixed picture.2

The G8 has been successful in providing much-needed debt relief - the Heavily Indebted PoorCountries (HIPC) initiative and the Multilateral DebtRelief Initiative have alleviated the debt burden ofmany African countries. Table 2 shows the status ofdebt relief efforts in Africa.

Debt relief has undoubtedly resulted in significantgains. As the report of the G8 Africa PersonalRepresentatives pointed out, it has “provided fiscalspace for increasing poverty-reduction expendituresand has freed up resources for greater investmentin the Millennium Development Goals” (G8 APRReport, 2007). The MDRI is estimated to cancel asmuch as $60 billion worth of multilateral debt.Furthermore, the World Bank-IMF Debt SustainabilityFramework lays the groundwork for responsiblelending and debt management by creditors andborrowers alike. Not all countries have receiveddebt relief but much progress is being made, withstrong ongoing support from the G8. Debtcancellation has helped many nations to addressthe important goal of poverty alleviation much morevigorously; some governments have indicated that ithas also served as a strong, positive signal toforeign investors.

Expenditures in the social sectors (such as healthand education) of countries that have received debtrelief have increased beyond the amount of debtrelief, which means that they are not just using thefunds from debt relief to increase social expenditures,but are also leveraging these funds for higherinvestments in health and education (IMF, 2001).The G8 has also provided strong support to theGlobal Fund for AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria,which has committed about $8 billion in 136countries to fight the three diseases. This supportwas further strengthened at the meeting to replenishthe Global Fund, held in Berlin in September 2007,where an additional $10 billion was raised for thenext three years. Individual G8 members have alsoinvested substantially in the health sector.

The results on the ground suggest that theinvestments in health and education are paying off.There has been progress on health, particularly inthe reduction of infant and child mortality. Malariainterventions are significant as well—over 20 millionbed nets have been distributed by the Global Fund

through country-owned mechanisms. There iscontinuing progress in the fight against infectiousdisease, and the G8 can honestly claim responsibilityfor some of the gains (OECD-DAC, 2008). Somecountries have also undertaken innovative efforts—inMarch 2008, the U.K. and France have announceda joint initiative to enroll 16 million African childrenin school within the next two years, in partnershipwith organisations that govern the sport of football.

But even in the social sector, where visible gainshave been made, there remains work to be done.Attention to and investments in health systems lagfar behind stated pledges. Africa also accounts fornearly half of the world’s children who are not inschool. The G8 has expressed support for the goalof universal primary education and for theEducation For All Fast Track Initiative at severalsummits but has not made specific financialcommitments. In order to meet the goal of universalprimary education by 2015, some 47 million Africanchildren of primary school age will need to beenrolled in school between now and 2010. If Africais to really benefit from the new “knowledge era”, amajor effort will have also to be undertaken torehabilitate its universities and to develop anautonomous research sector. This is a majorchallenge that the Panel will consider in more detailin the future.

In light of these and other challenges, the level ofprogrammable aid remains problematic (Figure 10).The G8 has made significant pledges to increasedevelopment assistance to Africa at the Gleneagles,St Petersburg and Heiligendamm summits, with theoverall goal of doubling aid to Africa between 2004and 2010. Current trends indicate that withoutmajor changes in programmable aid, mostcountries will be well below this target.

The G8 also does not have a timetable for progresstoward the overall goal of doubling aid. In theimmediate term, the key issue is how to get from2008 to 2010 or beyond and how much informationthe G8’s members can give African countries aboutwhat types of resources will be available and whenthey will be available.

A statement from the OECD-DAC issued in April2008 argues that commitments made at Gleneaglesand subsequent summits by the G8 imply thatoverall aid levels will rise from $80 billion in 2004 to$130 billion in 2010 (OECD-DAC, 2008). For this tobe realised, the rate of increase in coredevelopment programs will have to more thandouble over the next three years. OECD-DACconcludes that donors “will need to achieveunprecedented increases” to meet their targets for2010. Early findings from an OECD survey of futurespending shows that donors are making efforts toraise levels of aid but there is still a gap of about$40 billion (in 2007 dollars) that needs to be filled.

We are in a situation where it is increasingly clearthat traditional budgetary resources are toooverstretched to meet aid pledges, unlessinnovative financing mechanisms are promptly putin place. Possible sources of new funds includecurrency transactions taxes, global environmentaltaxes such as carbon taxes, taxes on internationalair travel and freight transport, a global lottery,measures to increase private funding ofdevelopment agencies, etc. Urgent collective workto evaluate these and other options should be apriority for the donor community.

Improving the Quality of AidWe believe that the quality of aid must also improvealong with the donor community’s commitmentsand policies. Fragmentation of aid continues to be aproblem as many donors implement scores ofprojects across the developing world. Major donorsare committed to improving aid quality via the ParisDeclaration on Aid Effectiveness; a forthcominghigh-level summit in Accra will highlight this issueonce again. Many policymakers and researchershave emphasised the need for outcome-basedevaluation of aid projects as well. Recently, therehas been strong support from a number ofdeveloped and developing countries for theInternational Initiative on Impact Evaluation (3IE)which will carry out independent assessments usingrandomised trials and other new methodologies.

Figure 10: Aid Flows to Africa Total net ODA to Sub-Saharan Africa

454035302520151050

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Source: OECD-DAC (2008)

15


2 Appendix 1 lists in detail the promises made by the G8 atGleneagles and subsequent summits.

Net debtforgiveness

grants

Humanitarian aid

Development projects,programmes and

technical co-operation

This will enable more rigorous assessments of theimpact of aid.

Tied aid is a key issue in need of attention. It limitsthe opportunities for “shopping around” and doesnot maximize the benefits of aid. Fortunately, inrecent years, there has been some progress asDAC members increased their reported untied aidfrom 42.5% of aid in 2002 to 53% in 2006. Aidreported as tied fell from 7.3% to 3%. However, withboth measures, the tying status of large portions ofaid is not reported, notably aid from the UnitedStates. The proportion of aid that is tied must beclearly identified by every member of the G8, andmust be decreased over time.

The quality of aid is also very dependent on its levelof predictability. New data show that aid volatilitycontinues to be a very serious problem, and manycountries in Africa, suffer the worst consequences(World Bank, 2008a). The data show that aid flowsshould be discounted by 15-20 % to account forthe effect of volatility—this number is even higher forcountries which experience extreme volatility(Kharas, 2008). There is also evidence to indicatethat if aid predictability is not improved, recipientcountries may see increases in aid offset byvolatility (Eifert and Gelb, 2005). This raises thepossibility of a low-level equilibrium: countriesbudgeting prudently within a medium-term fiscalframework will discount commitments and donorswill see few funding gaps, so pledges will fall. Withsome countries discounting aid commitments informulating budgets, we already observe somesigns of this behaviour.

Donors should pay attention to this problem, andconsider various solutions, including pre-committingaid over a multi-year horizon on the basis of aninitial performance assessment. Pre-commitmentscan be made under flexible rules which revisecommitments in response to deteriorations ingovernance; the resulting improvements inpredictability would likely be significant, especiallyfor the poorest countries.

Innovation in aid delivery must also be a part of thebroader donor agenda of improving aid quality.Continuous improvements in the delivery of aid willhelp overcome major challenges in aidappropriation, which will only become more difficultas donor countries try to fulfill their commitments tomajor increases in development assistance. Donors

and their taxpayers want to know that additionalfunds will achieve results, yet it is not always clearwhether aid for building schools, training teachers,and buying textbooks will get children in school orensure that they learn once there. This problempersists for two reasons: donors often cannotidentify the optimal use of funds in each countryfrom outside, and some donor practices, such asspending funds outside their budgets, can hinderthe long run development of country capacity andinstitutions.3 These problems must be addressed byinnovations that will improve the effectiveness ofaid. And finally, while we have focused our analysison aid and trade, we note that individual developedcountry policies on issues such as migration,investment, or technological development can havean enormous impact on Africa’s growth prospects(Roodman, 2008). Future work of the Panel will lookat some of these areas in detail.

Good GovernanceThe ability to cope with immediate- and longer-termchallenges is very much dependent on changeswithin the continent, particularly in the area ofgovernance. And while there have been ups anddowns, there is no doubt that overall, some progresshas been made in good governance. In Kenya, apower-sharing agreement has been reached. InRwanda, there has been much progress in improvingthe regulatory environment for businesses (WorldBank Doing Business, 2008). In several countries,sub-national and local governments are playingmore important roles in the allocation of fundstowards health and education; these actions areresulting in significant improvements in child mortality,primary enrolment rates and access to life-savingmedicines (OECD-DAC, 2008). The growing role ofcivil society in many countries is a great sign ofprogress—non-governmental organisations and

other citizens groups are playing a significant role inholding governments accountable for their actions.The Internet has emerged as a tool for bothgovernments and civil society as well.

Improvements in governance are correlated withadvancements in other areas, including economicgrowth, income distribution, and poverty alleviation(Radelet, 2008). Figure 11 shows the number ofdemocracies in Africa.4 Even if the basic criteria canbe discussed and the sustainability of progresscannot always be taken for granted, we observe thatmore than half of the continent is now democratic.

The level of resources being committed by Africangovernments to tackling poverty and otherproblems is rising, along with the revenue base.Figure 12 shows that government revenues (inbillion US$) are rising quite steeply, especially since2004. In countries that are experiencing sustainable


16

3 One interesting idea is that donors might commit ex ante to paya specific amount for a specific measure of progress such asschool enrollment rates, as much as is verifiably achieved, andas supplemental payment on top of existing aid (Birdsall et al,2007).

4 To qualify as a democracy, a country must score 4 or less on thecombined Freedom House score and 2 or more on the polityscore from Polity IV (Radelet, 2008).

Figure 11: Number of democracies in Africa

25

20

15

10

5

0

Num

ber o

f dem

ocra

cies

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Source: Radelet (2008)

Figure 12: Government Revenues and ODADisbursements (US$ billion)

200

150

100

50

02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source: OECD-DAC (2008)

Government revenueODA disbursements

growth, it is also clear that more of these resourcesare going towards development (World Bank GlobalMonitoring, 2008). African governments have greatlyincreased their own participation in areas such ashealth and education (DATA, 2007). While progressis sometimes slow, many governments are takingon a higher share of the costs of development.

Data from the World Bank’s Governance IndicatorsProject, Freedom House, and from TransparencyInternational show that Africa’s governance scoresare improving, in accordance with the objectives ofNEPAD (see Figure 13 for data from the World

Bank). Scores in the Ibrahim Index category on ruleof law, transparency and corruption also indicateprogress in some African countries (Figure 14).5

While the rate of progress may not be as high or assteady as we wish, it is positive and we must doeverything we can to acknowledge this trend and tomake sure that it is not reversed.

By adopting the framework of NEPAD unanimouslyin Lusaka in 2001, African governments havepledged to their peoples, and to the world, that theywill promote good governance. In 2002, NEPADlaunched the Africa Peer Review Mechanism (APRM),a self-monitoring mechanism for maintaining highstandards of governance, accountability andeconomic performance.6 As of 2007, 26 countries

had enrolled in the APRM process and threecountries had completed the process andpresented progress reports to the larger group. Still

there is progress to be made—it is critical thatgovernments implement the recommendations ofthe APRM reports and that the review processmoves at a healthy pace in order to speed up therate of completion for countries in the queue.

The G8 has repeatedly stated its support for theAfrica Peer Review Mechanism and the ExtractiveIndustries Transparency Initiative, which is designedto monitor the use of funds earned from oil andother natural resources. Both the APRM and theEITI have been successful, even groundbreaking, intheir efforts to improve governance—and both haveresulted in improvements on the ground. The G8must be commended for its role in these efforts.Still, the G8 can lend more support than it currentlydoes. In particular, countries that are implementingreforms based on the results of the peer reviewprocess should be entitle to receive more help fromthe G8, in terms both of financing and of technicalassistance.

17


5 The Ibrahim Index defines good governance as the delivery ofkey political goods and uses statistics on poverty, infrastructure,elections, etc. to evaluate such delivery. An exhaustiveexplanation of the index and the methodology behind it isavailable at http://www.moibrahimfoundation.org.

6 The African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) is voluntarilyacceded to by the members of the African Union and entailsperiodic reviews of the policies and practices of participatingcountries to ascertain progress made towards goals indemocracy and political governance, economic governance andmanagement, corporate governance, and socio-economicdevelopment. The APRM is not meant to exclude or punishcountries, and there is no conditionality attached to themechanism. Country review reports are available athttp://www.nepad.org/aprm/ for South Africa, Ghana, Kenya,Algeria and Benin.

Figure 13: World Bank Governance Indicators, Regional Averages, 1996-2006Sub-Saharan Africa Governance Indicators, 1996-2006 (larger numbers are better, scale runs from -2.5 to 2.5)

0.00

-0.10

-0.20

-0.30

-0.40

-0.50

-0.60

-0.70

-0.80

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source: World Bank Worldwide Governance Project (1996-2006)

Note: Omitted countries are the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Somalia, Sudan and Zimbabwe.

Voice and Accountability

Political Stability

Government Effectiveness

Regulatory Quality

Rule of Law

Control of Corruption

Figure 14: Change in score in the Ibrahim Index category on rule of law, transparency and corruption, between 2002 and 2005 (%)

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

Source: Mo Ibrahim Foundation (2005)

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The African Union Convention on Preventing andCombating Corruption, adopted in 2003, provides aframework for anti-corruption legislation focusedaround prevention, punishment, cooperation andeducation (Muna, 2004). The Convention enteredinto force in 2006 and has been ratified by 24countries, but its effectiveness depends on nationallegislation and enforcement of varying quality. TheG8 should also support this legislative process andthe real implementation of credible enforcementmechanisms as part of its commitment toimproving legal systems and general governance.On the side of African governments, there needs tobe greater leadership in terms of follow-up andimplementation. Implementation of reformssuggested by the APRM must also occur at a fasterpace. African governments can and should devotegreater resources to these efforts as well.

The G8 must also continue to improve governancewithin its own countries, in accordance with theOECD Convention on Corruption, in order to be acredible partner in Africa’s progress. Theimplementation of the OECD Convention againstbribery of foreign officials has suffered serioussetbacks (Transparency International, 2007). Equallydisappointing is the fact that the UN Convention onCorruption is not yet ratified by all of the G8member countries.

While acknowledging progress in governance inmany countries, the ongoing violence in the Darfurregion of Sudan and in the eastern part of theDemocratic Republic of Congo is of extremeconcern. Both conflicts have resulted in millions of

deaths and untold levels of suffering. It is widelyestimated that the conflict in Congo has resulted inthe deaths of over 5 million people and that theongoing conflict in Darfur has also caused millionsof people to be killed or displaced from theirhomes. The total economic collapse of Zimbabweand the unstable situation in Somalia are also ofconcern. Together, these situations representhumanitarian disasters of enormous proportions.

The situation regarding refugees continues to be ofgreat concern. A satellite picture from UNOSAT,taken in February 2008, shows the scale of refugeeflows from the Chadian capital of N’Djamena to theCameroonian border (Figure 15). Each dot on thephotograph is an individual and each yellow box isa vehicle—a single photograph depicts thousands ofmen, women and children fleeing their homes.

The training of peacekeepers needs greater supportand coordination from within and outside Africa. Acommitment made in 2004 by the G8 to trainpeacekeepers was repeated in 2005 and 2006. TheUnited States, the United Kingdom, France and Italyhave invested resources in training troops andpolice, fulfilling promises made at the G8 Summit inSea Island. Some financial support has also beenprovided for the African Union’s Mission in Sudan(AMIS), both by the United States and by theEuropean Union, and other bilateral commitmentshave also been made. More recently, thecommitment to support the Africa Mission to Sudanhas been expanded to include a specific statementreflecting the situation in Darfur.

Several summits have reiterated the G8’scommitment to support the building of the AfricaStandby Force’s civilian and military capacity butthese promises are unfulfilled. According to theAfrican Union’s protocol, the Africa Standby Forceis supposed to have the capacity, by 2010, to carryout complex peacekeeping missions, undertakepost-conflict disarmament and demobilisationexercises and provide humanitarian assistance. It isalso supposed to be able to deploy quickly—within30 to 90 days of authorisation by the AUcommission (Mbogo, 2006). The African StandbyForce is yet to achieve these objectives and suffersfrom a severe lack of funding. In order to resolveexisting conflicts and prevent new ones, it is veryimportant for the G8 to follow up on promises tosupport peacekeeping with sustained action andfinancial support.

More broadly, the African Union must be supportedin its efforts to strengthen its capacity to addressongoing conflicts and prevent new ones. Its annualbudget of about $600 million is wholly inadequateto address the multitude of problems it must copewith. Currently it is struggling to cope with theprovision of transport, logistics support, andhumanitarian aid to Africa’s conflict zones. It is alsounderstaffed in several critical areas (African Union,2004). Deliveries of critical equipment such ashelicopters or transport vehicles are often delayeddue to lack of funds and attention. Both the G8 andAfrican governments can do more to address thissituation, by focusing on strengthening the capacityof the African Union and by taking on morefinancial responsibilities.

In concluding this brief report on the present stateof Africa, we would like to emphasise to thepartners in Africa’s development, both the new andunprecedented opportunities they enjoy and theproblems which they must help address. Promisingavenues are opened up by the progress observedin many sectors as well as by emerging countrieskeen to develop their economic relations with theAfrican continent. At the same time, the crisesafflicting the world economy today are particularlythreatening for Africa, as they can derail progress.

Africa is, no doubt, at a critical juncture, facing thechallenge of maintaining and, if at all possible,increasing the speed of its development. In suchcircumstances, it is imperative for its internationalpartners to make sure - as pledged by the G8Africa Action Plan adopted in Kananaskis - that aid“will ensure that no country genuinely committed topoverty reduction, good governance and economicreform, will be denied the chance to achieve theMillennium Goals through lack of finance”. The firststep in that direction for Africa’s partners shouldconsist of bringing, as soon as possible, theirindividual contributions in line with pledgedundertakings, while considering the best ways tosupport the African Union in its efforts to addressongoing conflicts, prevent new ones, and adapt thecontinent to changing climatic conditions.


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Figure 15: Refugee flows from N’Djamena to theCameroonian border

Source: UNOSAT (2008)

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Farlam, Peter. 2005. “Assessing Public-PrivatePartnerships in Africa.” Paper presented atNEPAD/OECD Investment Policy Roundtable onInvestment for African Development: Making itHappen. 25-27 May. Available at oecd.org

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G8 Africa Action Plan. 2002. Available at fco.gov.uk

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International Monetary Fund. 2008. EconomicOutlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. Available at imf.org

International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). 2008.“The Rice Crisis: What Needs to Be Done?”Available at irri.org/

Jacobs, G. and A. Aeron-Thomas. 2000. AfricaRoad Safety Review Final Report. Report for the USDepartment of Transportation. Available atsafety.fhwa.dot.gov

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Mbogo, Steve. 2006. “African Peacekeeping ForceDevelopment Continues Despite FundingChallenges.” 21 December. World Politics Review.Available at worldpoliticsreview.com

Mo Ibrahim Foundation. 2007. Ibrahim Index ofAfrican Governance. Available atmoibrahimfoundation.org

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Radelet, Steve. 2008. Economic Growth in theEmerging Democracies of Africa. Presentation atthe NBER Africa Project Conference, February2008. Available at nber.org

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Stern Review. 2006. Economics of Climate Change.Available at hm-treasury.gov.uk

Timmer, Peter. 2008. Briefing material on 2008world food crisis. Unpublished note.

Transparency International Progress Report. 2007.Enforcement of the OECD Convention onCombating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials.Available at transparency.org

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UN Economic Commission for Africa, African Union,and African Development Bank (UNECA/AU/AfDB).2000. The Africa Water Vision for 2025: Equitableand Sustainable Use of Water for SocioeconomicDevelopment. Available at uneca.org

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Wheeler, David and Kevin Ummel. 2007. “AnotherInconvenient Truth: A Carbon-Intensive South FacesEnvironmental Disaster, No Matter What the NorthDoes.” Working Paper 134. Available at cgdev.org

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Appendix 1: G8 commitments to Africa 2005-07Source: DATA (2007)


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Double assistance to Africa: “The commitmentof the G8 and other donors will lead to anincrease in official development assistance toAfrica of $25 billion a year by 2010, more thandoubling aid to Africa compared to 2004.”

Aid effectiveness: “We will implement and bemonitored on all commitments we made in theParis Declaration on aid effectiveness, includingenhancing efforts to untie aid.”

Innovative financing: “A group of the countriesabove firmly believe that innovative financingmechanisms can help deliver and bring forwardthe financing needed to achieve the MillenniumDevelopment Goals. They will continue toconsider the International Financing Facility (IFF),a pilot IFF for immunisation and a solidaritycontribution on plane tickets to financedevelopment projects, in particular in the healthsector, and to finance the IFF. A working groupwill consider the implementation of thesemechanisms.”

Doubling of EU ODA: “The EU will nearly doubleits ODA between 2004 and 2010 … At least 50%of this increase should go to sub-Saharan Africa.”

Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative: “Cancel 100%of outstanding debts of eligible Heavily IndebtedPoor Countries to the IMF, IDA and AfricanDevelopment Fund, and provide additionalresources to ensure that the financing capacity ofthe IFIs is not reduced.”

Nigeria: Achieve “a sustainable exit for Nigeriafrom its debt problems”. Doha DevelopmentRound: “Work with greater urgency to bring thesenegotiations to a close by the end of 2006.”

Agriculture: Commit to “substantially reducingtrade-distorting domestic support andsubstantially improving market access” and“eliminating all forms of export subsidies andestablishing disciplines on all export measureswith equivalent effect by a credible end date.”

Market access: Reiterate the commitment to“duty-free and quota-free market access forproducts originating from LDCs” and “improvethe utilisation of our preference programmes by

Double assistance to Africa: “We are workinghard to deliver on our substantial aidcommitments.”

Aid effectiveness: “We are working on theimplementation of the March 2005 ParisDeclaration on Aid Effectiveness ... and havestarted to conduct a survey on monitoring theimplementation.”

Innovative financing: In the Annex of the G8Africa statement, Canada, France, Italy, Russia,the UK and the US reiterated their support forAMCs and other forms of innovative financing.

Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative: “We have madegood progress in lifting the debt burden from thepoorest countries.”

Nigeria: “A deal resolving 100% of Nigeria’s $30billion in debts to Paris Club creditors has alsobeen agreed and implemented.”

Doha Development Round: A plea for “utmosturgency” in concluding the DDA.

Agriculture: “We agreed to … eliminate all formsof export subsidy on cotton by 2006, to end allforms of agricultural export subsidies and todiscipline all export measures with equivalenteffect by end 2013 … subject to successfulconclusion of the Doha Round.”

Market access: “… Provide duty-free and quota-free market access for at least 97% ofproducts originating from all LDCs by 2008, or no later than the start of the implementationperiod of the DDA … subject to successful

Double assistance to Africa: “ we stress our firmresolve to implement the commitments ondevelopment made, in particular, in Gleneagles…they include increasing, compared with 2004,with other donors, ODA to Africa by US$ 25billion a year by 2010”. (Africa statement)

“Significant progress has been made, but werecognise that further action is needed to meetour previous commitments”. (Africa statement).

“Debt relief, innovative financing in as well asprivate sector engagements will contribute to fulfilthese commitments” (Chair’s Summary).

Aid effectiveness: “We are working to implementthe Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness andrecognise that both donors and partner countrieshave steps to take to improve the impact of aid”.

Innovative financing: “ The G8 welcomeinnovative financing initiatives. We note that suchmeasures, taken on a voluntary basis, to mobiliseadditional resources for a long-term access toaffordable vaccines and treatments, as well as forthe development of vaccines, such as the GAVI,UNITAID, the IFF and the AMC”.

“These (commitments) include the historicmultilateral debt relief of up to US$ 60 billion, theimplementation of which is now well underway”.Debt sustainability: “We invite (all donors) toadhere to the Paris Declaration as donors and totake account of the debt sustainability issues inall of their lending practices “ …

Doha Development Round: “ We pledged towork with a high level of ambition in all areas ofthe DDA ….The time has come to translatecontinued commitment on a political level intotangible results”.

Agriculture: No mention.

Market access: “We are fully committed toprovide duty-free and quota-free market accessfor products originating from LDCS to achievesubstantial improvements in market access.

Aid for trade: ““ the G8 will further concentrateon trade capacity building assistance and

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G8 commitments at Gleneagles G8 commitments at St Petersburg G8 commitments at Heiligendamm

ensuring that rules (particularly rules of origin) aretransparent and simple to follow and do notinadvertently preclude developing countries fromtaking advantage of those schemes.”

Aid for Trade: “Increase our help to developingcountries to build the physical, human andinstitutional capacity to trade, including tradefacilitation measures.”

Policy space: “Ensure that there is appropriateflexibility in the DDA negotiations” so that LeastDeveloped Countries can “decide, plan andsequence their overall economic reforms in linewith their country-led development programmes”.

HIV/AIDS: “With the aim of an AIDS-freegeneration … develop and implement a package… with the aim of as close to possible universalaccess to treatment for all those who need it by2010” and “ensure that all children left orphanedor vulnerable by AIDS or other pandemics aregiven proper support.”

“We will work to meet the financing needs ofHIV/AIDS, including through the replenishmentthis year of the Global Fund.”

TB: “… Helping to meet the needs identified bythe Stop TB Partnership.”

Malaria: “By contributing to the additional $1.5billion a year needed annually … we can reducethe burden of malaria as a major killer of childrenin sub-Saharan Africa.”

Polio: “… Supporting the Polio EradicationInitiative for the post-eradication period in2006–08 through continuing or increasing ourown contributions.”

Health systems: “Investing in improved healthsystems in partnership with African governments,by helping train and retrain doctors, nurses andcommunity health workers.”

conclusion of the Doha Round.”

Aid for Trade: “We expect spending on Aid forTrade to increase to $4 billion, including throughenhancing the Integrated Framework.”

HIV/AIDS: “Building on the commitments wemade at Gleneagles last year … pursue allnecessary efforts to scale up towards the goal ofuniversal access to comprehensive preventionprogrammes, treatment, care and support by2010” and “ensure that additional resources aremade available to tackle AIDS, in view of theUNAIDS estimate that $20–$23 billion is neededannually by 2010.”

“We will work with other donors … in the effort tosecure the funding needed (for the Global Fund)for the 2006-07 replenishment period and callupon all concerned to participate actively in thedevelopment of a four-year strategy, aimed atbuilding a solid foundation for the activities of theFund in the years ahead.”

TB/malaria: “We are working to deliver theGlobal Plan to Stop TB, launched in January2006, and the Global Strategic Plan to Roll BackMalaria, launched in November 2005.”

Polio: “We have committed $210 million to fundPolio Eradication in 2006.”

Health systems: “Improved access to preventionand treatment of diseases for those in need,through assistance programmes focused onstrengthening the capacity of health systems andthe training, deployment and retention of qualifiedhealth workers.”

support the recommendations of the WTO’s Aidfor Trade Task Force to improve the quality andmonitor the delivery of the commitments on Aidfor Trade”. “We expect spending on Aid for Tradeto increase to US$4 billion, including throughenhancing the Integrated Framework”.

Health: “Though visible progress has beenachieved, we and others need to do more”.

“The G8 countries will scale up their efforts tocontributing towards the goal of universal accessto HIV/AIDS prevention programmes, treatmentand care and support by 2010 for all” …”Werecognise that to meet this goal of universalaccess as well as realising the MDGs for fightingHIV/AIDS, malaria and TB on a sustainablebasis, and strengthening of health systems willrequire substantial resources. We will continue ourefforts towards these goals to provide at least aprojected US$ 60 billion over the coming years…”

“G8 members pledge to work with other donorsto replenish the GFATM and to provide long-termpredictable funding based on ambitious, butrealistic demand-driven targets”.

HIV/AIDS: “G8 members, in support of nationalHIV/AIDS programmes globally, individually andcollectively, over the next few years will aim toemploy existing and additional programmes tosupport life saving anti-retroviral treatmentthrough bilateral and multilateral efforts forapproximately five million people, to preventtwenty-four million new infections and to care fortwenty-four million people, including ten millionorphans and vulnerable children”.

TB: “ We are committed to working towards furtherintegration of efforts against TB and HIV/AIDS andthe integration of DOTS treatment and other com-prehensive approaches necessary to control TB”.

Malaria: “To accelerate implementation of the


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Universal Primary Education: “We support ourAfrican partners’ commitment to ensure that by2015 all children have access to and complete freeand compulsory primary education of good quality.”

Education for All Fast Track Initiative: “We willwork to support the Education for All agenda inAfrica, including continuing our support for theFast Track Initiative (FTI).”

“Implementing the G8 water action plan agreed atEvian … including through increasing aid in thissector.”

APRM: “Support to the African Peer ReviewMechanism while respecting African ownership,

Universal Primary Education: “We are workingwith our African partners on their commitment toprovide free primary education for all Africanchildren by 2015.”

Education for all Fast Track Initiative: “Wesupport an effective implementation of the EFAFast Track Initiative.”

“We are contributing to efforts to improve theeffectiveness of aid to Africa’s water sector.”

APRM: ‘’25 countries have signed up to theAfrican Peer Review Mechanism and three have

financial commitment we have undertaken atGleneagles, we will work to reach this goal bymobilising the private sector and its expertise andresources, enhancing public awareness,encouraging public-private partnerships, andurging non-G8 countries to do the same”.

Polio: “The G8 will make utmost efforts incooperation with international organisations andpartners to eradicate polio and will also work withothers to close urgent funding shortfalls”.

Health Systems: "The shortfall in humanresources undermines the provision of adequatehealth care in Africa. We will work with Africanstates to address the different causes of this lackof human resource capacity within the healthsector, including working conditions and salarieswith the aim of recruiting, training and retainingadditional health workers. “*

Monitoring progress: “ In view of the G8countries’ contributions to achieving the health-related international goals we agreed in StPetersburg to review progress in this regard,including out financial commitments, in fightingthe three diseases HIV/AIDS, TB and malariaregularly. We will undertake this monitoringexercise for the first time this year under thePresidency’s guidance. The report will inform ouractivities and commitments and we affirm that wewill continue this close monitoring processregularly”. (http://www.g-8.de/Content/EN/Artikel/__g8-summit/anlagen/2007-11-05-health-review,property=publicationFile.pdf)

Universal Primary Education: “ We reaffirm thatno country seriously committed to “Education forAll” will be thwarted in their achievement of thisgoal by lack of resources”

Education for all Fast Track Initiative: “The G8will continue to work with partners and otherdonors to meet shortfalls in all FTI endorsedcountries, estimated by the FTI Secretariat ataround US$ 500 million for 2007.

Not mentioned.

“Good governance is an important basis for ourco-operation”.

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such as through contributions to the APRMSecretariat Trust Fund.”

EITI: “Increase support to the ExtractiveIndustries Transparency Initiative and countriesimplementing EITI, including through financialand technical measures.“

UNCAC: “Work vigorously for early ratification ofthe UN Convention Against Corruption and startdiscussions on mechanisms to ensure itseffective implementation.”

OECD Convention on Bribery: “Reduce briberyby the private sector by rigorously enforcing lawsagainst the bribery of foreign public officials.”

Training peacekeepers: “We are progressing ourSea Island commitment to train, and whereappropriate, equip some 75,000 troops to takepart in peace support operations worldwide witha sustained focus on Africa.”

African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS): “Wecommend and will continue to support theAfrican Union’s mission in Sudan (Darfur).”

African Standby Force: “Providing coordinatedtechnical assistance to the African Standby Forceand helping to establish planning elements at theAU HQ and its regional brigades.”

completed the process.”

EITI: “Good progress has been made inimproving transparency and accountabilityincluding in the oil and gas industries through theEITI.”

UNCAC: “We have … secured the entry intoforce of UNCAC … three G8 countries areamong those who have ratified.”

OECD Convention on Bribery: “We havesuccessfully completed work at the OECD tostrengthen significantly anti-bribery requirementsfor those applying for export and creditguarantees.”

Training peacekeepers: “We are on track todeliver our Sea Island commitment to train75,000 troops worldwide by 2010, with asustained focus on Africa.”

African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS): “Wehave provided funding, hardware, personnel andtechnical assistance to the AU Mission in Darfur,and stand ready to support a UN force to takeover from the AU there.”

African Standby Force: “We have increased oursupport for African efforts to build a peaceful andstable Africa, including support for setting up theAfrican Standby Force.”

APRM: “The G8 agreed to provide additionalsupport to countries during their peer reviewsand for implementing reforms emerging from theAPRM recommendations”. (Chair’s Summary).“We commit ourselves and encourage others togive priority attention to the results of the (APRM)reviews in their own strategies for bilateral andregional co-operation”. (Africa statement).

EITI: “ We therefore express out continuoussupport for EITI and we will launch a certificationpilot project” (Chair’s Summary).

UNCAC: “We will intensify common efforts toeffectively combat corruption worldwide. Thisincludes: Supporting ratification of UNCAC by allcountries”. (Global Communiqué).

OECD Convention on Bribery: “ We arecommitted to full implementation of obligationsunder existing international agreements …Thisincludes the partners commitment to effectiveinvestigation and prosecution of domestic andforeign bribery cases”. (Global Communiqué).

Good Financial Governance: “ the G8 “ActionPlan for Good Financial Governance in Africa”,…will support the promotion of good financialgovernance, including capacity development,working closely with the IFIs ongoing initiatives.We will assist African countries that are takingcredible action against corruption and increasingtransparency and accountability”.

Training peacekeepers: No mention.

African Union Mission to Sudan (AMIS): Fromthe G8’s statement on Sudan/Darfur: “We alsoreiterate our commitment to support AMIS in therapid transition to the AU/UN hybrid mission”…”We agreed that, if the Government of Sudanand the rebel movements continue to fail to meettheir obligations, we will support appropriateaction in the Security Council”.

African Standby Force: “The G8 are committedto strengthen the civilian, including policecapabilities of the ASF” …”At the same time, weremain firmly committed to providing thenecessary support to the ASF for its core militarycapabilities, which require increased investmentby troop contributors and donors alike”.


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