An improving setting for public investments in AWM

CTA Annual SeminarPublic Policy and Investment

23rd November, 2010Andy Bullock, Interim Facilitator

Two decades of declining investment

Decline since 1987- despite Asian evidence

Poor sector performanceWeak MDG connections

Lack of initial response to 1st Generation PRSPsDebt Relief etc

Competing demands on ODA – higher returnselsewhere

Stagnation of SSA AWM

Stagnation of assetsStagnation of absorptive capacity

Expansion of irrigation in Asia

70m to > 130m ha and >7,000 medium-large sized dams within 40 years (high private sector engagement)

Yield increases, reduced vulnerability to climate vagaries (eg at planting), extended cropping season, intensification (double-cropping)

Lessons from Asia

Ag water estimated at ~50% of Green Revolution costs.But – ‘Rainbow revolution ‘ – mosaic of farming systems

Five business lines within AWM

Different beneficiary targets, political economies, financing models , connections with river basin management

1) improved water control and watershed management in rain-fed environments

2) small scale community-managed irrigation for local markets;

3) individual smallholder irrigation for high value markets;4) market oriented (medium-large scale) irrigation on a

public private partnership basis5) reform and modernization of existing large scale

irrigation

2nd generation PRSPsPoverty reducing growth

Pan-African targets

AfDB – double-digit GDP growth necessary

CAADP – 6% agric growth

National targets (through CAADP Compacts)2.5% annual growth in Kenya, 3.6% in Liberia, 6% in Uganda, 7% in Rwanda, 10-13% in Nigeria

Promoting AWM in AfricaAfrica Water Vision 2025

Follow-up through AMCOW (eg RPP)

Ouagadougou Call for Action (Collaborative Program)

Tunis Declaration 2008

Sirte Conference in 2008

Overall cost

Refined estimates for SSA – 5bn US$ p.a. Current flows – 2 bn US$. Annual financing gap 3 bn US$ (CapEx and O&M)

Food price and economic crises

Rise of CAADP20 Countries progress to Post-Compact status by 2010

All striving for higher Agricultural growth

Mainly countries facing ‘economic water scarcity’Some impacted detrimentally, some beneficially by CC projections

Growth in public investment pipelines

•Maputo Declaration - 10% of Govt funding (~5 bn US$)

•Food crisis response – Post L’Aquila/Pittsburg GAFSP (9bn US$)

•IFAD 8th Replenishment (3bn US$)

•WB Irrigation Business Plan (~1bn US$ p.a.)

•AfDB Irrigation and water storage Business Plan – 500,000 ha, 1% annual rise in storage)

• Others – eg IsDB, bilaterals

•Emerging Partners (Sovereign Funds)

Main foci for action: CAADPThe main foci for action to 2015:supporting AWM operations and investments in 20 Post-Compact countries (significant expansion of AWM, ‘next generation’ Ag SWAPs/irrigation policies)

Countries (perhaps indicatively 5-10) progressing to Compacts (alignments of AWM within national development and agricultural strategies, effective national irrigation policies and strategies, and AWM with food security policies

working with CAADP to support (indicatively 5-10) countries that will progress towards, but not necessarily conclude on, Compacts

Low Income Countries Under Stress (LICUS)

CAADP-oriented AWMsome examples

Uganda - rehabilitation of five large public irrigation schemes (6535 ha)

Malawi - rehabilitate existing irrigation schemes and construct new ones to expand irrigated area from 20,000 ha to 40,000 ha

Rwanda - area under sustainable water management to 300,000ha, 66,000 ha of marshland rice development by 2016

Liberia - expansion of agricultural land under irrigation from 2% to 5%

Ghana - micro- and small-scale irrigation to benefit 50,000 households by 2015

Investment readiness

Investment readiness ‘stairway’

WB Irrigation Business Plan

Targeting (subject to demand): 260,000 (ha) of irrigation and 400,000 ha of improved water management in rainfed agriculture

Conclusions• 20 countries progressing to operationalise CAADP (through Compacts, Investment Plans etc)•Alignments with CAADP by development partner support (eg GPAFS)•Major improvements in actual and pipeline investment flow•AWM embedded within national agricultural development and food security strategies•New facilitating arrangements at country-level of Line Ministries

• Not uniquely a funding challenge•High demand for operational support in (capacity-limited) implementing agencies• ‘New generation’ of better performing interventions• Positive experiences (research, civ soc) in scaled-up areas• Support institutions to gear up to operations