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NI Skills Barometer
KESS
Presentation
Mark Magill
February 2016
Agenda Background to the NI Skills Barometer
Overview of approach
Demand for skills
Supply of skills
Supply/ demand (im)balance
Policy comments
Annex 1: What else is the evidence telling us about the existing labour market?
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Background to the
NI Skills Barometer
Background to the NI Skills Barometer
DEL sponsored 3 year project
Broad number of stakeholder groups/ users including:
− young people, parents and careers advisors
− employers
− education institutions
− DEL
Skills forecasting ‘tool’
Economy wide and across a broad range of skills/ qualifications
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Overview of Approach
Quantitative analysis
Demand side
indicators
• Demand for jobs (by industry and occupation)
• Expansion demand
• Replacement demand
• Demand for skills
• Current and Projected skills mix
• HE and FE skills (by subject area and NQF level)
Supply side
indicators
•Supply of people
• Demographics (by industry and occupation)
• Immigration
• Supply of HE and FE skills (by subject area and NQF level)
• Attainment
Supply/ Demand
(im)balance
• Identify the annual average supply gap
• by HE (JACS) and FE (SSA)
• by NQF Level
Identify demand and supply factors
Plan for
high growth
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Sectoral insight also essential
Consulting with a wide range of sector/ industry organisations
Quantitative AND qualitative input is critical:
to review and enhance our quantitative analysis
provide sector insight
Demand for skills
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Employment projections by sector
Total employment change by 1 digit SIC (2015-25)
Source: UUEPC
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Baseline Scenario
High Growth Scenario
Overview of demand Total employment
831,000
(2015)
918,400
(2025)
Annual average Gross demand
85,200
(2015-25)
Filled from within the
existing labour market
55,900
(2015-25)
Net requirement from
education & migration
29,300
(2015-25)
Replacement
demand
20,200
Expansion
demand
9,100
Focus of the
Skills Barometer
Source: UUEPC
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20,433
9,595
11,861
5,045
8,934
4,582
7,278
6,063
3,036
8,379
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Below NQF 2
NQF Level 2
NQF Level 3
NQF Level 4-5
NQF Level 6+
Number of people
Filled from within existinglabour market
Net requirement
Gross demand by level of qualification Annual average gross demand for skills (2015-25)
• This charts sets out the annual average gross
demand (i.e. 85,200) by skills level.
• The largest net requirement (i.e. from
education) is at the graduate level, followed by
NQF L2 and then NQF L3.
• Overall large demand for low level skills (below
NQF L2) but a very significant proportion of
that demand will be met from within the
existing labour market. Demand for people
with low/ no skills from education is small.
55,900 jobs filled from within the existing
labour market
29,300 jobs required from education and
migration Source: UUEPC
Annual average net requirement from education and migration (2015-25)
Current forecast: 16%
2009 forecast: 22%
Net requirement by skills level
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Below NQF 2
NQF Level 2
NQF Level 3
NQF Level 4-5
NQF Level 6+
Number of people
8,380
3,030
6,060
7,280
4,580
Total = 29,300 p.a.
28% job opportunities
require NQF L6+
Source: UUEPC
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-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Public admin & defence
People employed by households
Water supply & waste
Mining
Elect' & gas
Real estate
Agriculture
Other service activities
Finance & insurance
Arts & entertainment
Transport & storage
Education
Information & communication
Health & social work
Professional scientific & technical
Construction
Admin' & support services
Restaurants and hotels
Manufacturing
Wholesale & retail
Number of people demanded
Expansion
Replacement
Demand by industry sector Annual average net requirement (2015-25)
29,300 p.a.
Source: UUEPC
Public sector contains almost half of the higher
skilled population
Source: UUEPC
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Sectoral demand (net requirement) by skills level Which sectors recruit high (L6+) and medium skilled (L4-5) people?
18%
11%
10%
10%8%8%
9%
6%
4%
5%
5%5%
2%
-1%
High level skills requirement (Level 6 and above)
Professional scientific & technical
Information & communication
Health & social work
Manufacturing
Admin' & support services
Education
Wholesale & retail
Restaurants and hotels
Finance & insurance
Construction
Arts & entertainment
Other
Real estate
Public admin & defence
18%
25%
15%
9%
8%
6%
4%
3%4%
3%
2%2%
Sub-degree level skills requirement (Level 4 and 5)
Admin' & support services
Health & social work
Information & communication
Education
Wholesale & retail
Manufacturing
Professional scientific & technical
Restaurants and hotels
Other
Construction
Other service activities
Arts & entertainment
Source: UUEPC
Sectoral demand (net requirement) by
skills level
Which sectors recruit medium to lower skilled (L3 and below) people?
22%
14%
13%12%
10%
5%
5%
3% 3%
3%
3%3%
2%
Mid to low level skills requirement (Level 3 and below)
Wholesale & retail
Restaurants and hotels
Manufacturing
Construction
Admin' & support services
Transport & storage
Professional scientific & technical
Health & social work
Other
Agriculture
Information & communication
Other service activities
Arts & entertainment
Source: UUEPC
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Supply of skills
Based on current trends NI continues to supply a
pipeline of low skills
Highest qualification of school leavers
Source: DE, DEL, UUEPC
81,000 pupils projected to leave
school without achieving at least
5GCSE’s including English and
Maths over the coming decade
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But a smaller proportion of low achievers enter the labour market
immediately Number of school leavers becoming economically active after qualifying
Source: DE, UUEPC
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
20
13
/14
20
14
/15
20
15
/16
20
16
/17
20
17
/18
20
18
/19
20
19
/20
20
20
/21
20
21
/22
20
22
/23
20
23
/24
20
24
/25
Nu
mb
er o
f sc
ho
ol l
eave
rs e
nte
rin
g th
e la
bo
ur
mar
ket
No qualifications Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
Low school achievement feeds FE supply
Number of individuals qualifying from FE by NQF levels
Source: DE, UUEPC
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Entry Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Nu
mb
er o
f in
div
idu
als
qu
alif
yin
g fr
om
FE
68% below level 3
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Economy wide supply of skills
Source: DEL, DE, UUEPC Supply of skills
Supply/ Demand (im)balance
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Supply Gap – NQF Level Annual average labour market supply gap (NQF L1 to L8)
Source: UUEPC
NQF level 6+ Supply Gap – Broad subject area Annual Average Supply Gap NQF L6+ (JACS 1 digit)
Under-supply
Over-supply
STEM mainly Public Sector
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Nu
mb
er
of
Gra
du
ate
s
Source: UUEPC
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Top 15 Annual Average Undersupply (2 Digit JACS)
NQF L6+ Undersupply – Detailed subject area
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Others in technology
History by period
Design studies
General engineering
Physical geographical sciences
Marketing
Chemistry
Physics
Mathematics
Mechanical engineering
Information systems
Electronic & electrical engineering
Civil engineering
Nursing
Computer science
Annual supply
Source: UUEPC
NQF L6+ Oversupply – Detailed subject area Top 15 Skills Annual Average Oversupply (2 Digit JACS)
0 50 100 150 200 250
Others in social studies
Architecture
Media studies
Pharmacology, toxicology & pharmacy
Law
Sport & exercise science
Others in subjects allied to medicine
Nutrition
Sociology
Anatomy, physiology & pathology
Politics
Academic studies in education
Psychology
Training teachers
Social work
Annual supply gap
Source: UUEPC
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Annual Average Supply Gap NQF L4-5 (SSAs 1 digit)
Under-supply
Over-supply
NQF L4-5 Supply Gap – Broad subject area
-100
0
100
200
300
Nu
mb
er
of
Gra
du
ate
s
Source: UUEPC
0 50 100 150 200 250
Hospitality & Catering
Building & Construction
Sociology & Social Policy
Law & Legal
Manufacturing Technologies
Creative Arts
ICT Practitioners
Engineering
Nursing & related
Science
Annual supply gap
NQF L4-5 Undersupply – Detailed subject area
Top 10 Skills Annual Average Undersupply (2 digit SSAs)
Source: UUEPC
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Policy comments
Policy Comments The following policy comments have been made from the analysis:
High levels of job creation is required
Lower economic growth could create over-supply.
Large numbers of skilled people will leave NI if employment opportunities are not available for them.
This is preferred to an under-supply of skills
Skills implications of austerity
lower levels of government spending and recruitment levels will reduce demand for skills.
BUT Government spending and demand will increase in the medium to long term, therefore care must be taken with the policy response so as not to lose the capability to deliver this training in the interim.
In the short term, more skilled people for the private sector.
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Policy Comments There is a need to over-supply
Employers indicate that not all qualifiers have the skills required to work at level equivalent to the qualification achieved.
How do we deal with this issue?
Potentially linked to the need for employability skills
Strong need for employability skills such as: team working; good communication; people management; problem solving and critical/ objective thinking, initiative, commercial acumen.
Education institutions must integrate the development of these skills into course delivery.
Students must get appropriate exposure to meaningful work experience, typically through placement and/ or internship.
Balancing the responsibility of the education institution and the responsibility of the employer.
Policy Comments Policy response to areas of oversupply – avoid an initial (knee-jerk)
response to simply reduce provision (and this may be necessary), but alternatives exist:
Selling NI as a FDI location to industries requiring those skills
Education institutions could sell over-supplied courses to international students
Conversion courses
The image of FE
The image of FE must be considered the equal of HE, if all young people are to match their career choices with their abilities.
Setting appropriate funding incentives
If Government want to encourage improved outcomes (e.g. higher employment outcomes), then the funding regime should incentivise and reward those outcomes.
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Policy Comments
Sector attractiveness
Some sectors need to work harder to make their industry attractive to potential recruits.
Companies should broaden their search criteria
Employers should consider the skills developed across a broad range of qualifications. Do not focus solely on traditional sector qualifications
Annex 1: What else is the
evidence telling us about the
existing labour market?
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Work readiness is a problem Number of school leavers becoming economically active after qualifying
Source: DE, EPC
Employability skills crucial
Source: DE, UUEPC
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Work readiness is a problem Number of school leavers becoming economically active after qualifying
Source: LFS
How skilled are we? Employed - >35 Employed - <35
NQF level 2: 5+ GCSE’s
NQF level 3: 2+ A-Levels
NQF level 4-5: Sub-degree
NQF level 6: Undergraduate degree
NQF level 7: Masters degree
NQF level 8: PHD
Source: Labour Force Survey
No qualifications,
13%Other
qualifications, 4%
Below NQF 2, 11%
NQF Level 2, 15%
Trade apprenticeshi
ps, 6%
NQF Level 3, 11%
NQF Level 4-5, 16%
NQF Level 6, 13%
NQF Level 7, 9%
NQF Level 8, 1%
No qualifications,
6%
Other qualifications,
4%
Below NQF 2, 8%
NQF Level 2, 18%
Trade apprenticeshi
ps, 4%
NQF Level 3, 22%
NQF Level 4-5, 11%
NQF Level 6, 21%
NQF Level 7, 6%
NQF Level 8, 1%
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How skilled are we? Employed Unemployed
NQF level 2: 5+ GCSE’s NQF level 3: 2+ A-Levels NQF level 4-5: Sub-degree NQF level 6: Undergraduate degree NQF level 7: Masters degree NQF level 8: PHD
Source: Labour Force Survey
No qualifications,
10% Other qualifications,
4%
Below NQF 2, 10%
NQF Level 2, 16%
Trade apprenticeshi
ps, 6%
NQF Level 3, 15%
NQF Level 4-5, 14%
NQF Level 6, 16%
NQF Level 7, 8%
NQF Level 8, 1%
No qualifications,
18% Other qualifications,
4%
Below NQF 2, 16%
NQF Level 2, 24%
Trade apprenticeshi
ps, 9%
NQF Level 3, 17%
NQF Level 4-5, 2%
NQF Level 6, 7%
NQF Level 7, 2%
NQF Level 8, 1%
How skilled are we? Employed Inactive excluding students
Source: Labour Force Survey
NQF level 2: 5+ GCSE’s NQF level 3: 2+ A-Levels NQF level 4-5: Sub-degree NQF level 6: Undergraduate degree NQF level 7: Masters degree NQF level 8: PHD
No qualifications,
10% Other qualifications,
4%
Below NQF 2, 10%
NQF Level 2, 16%
Trade apprenticeshi
ps, 6%
NQF Level 3, 15%
NQF Level 4-5, 14%
NQF Level 6, 16%
NQF Level 7, 8%
NQF Level 8, 1%
No qualifications,
40%
Other qualifications,
5%
Below NQF 2, 12%
NQF Level 2, 14%
Trade apprenticeshi
ps, 5%
NQF Level 3, 9%
NQF Level 4-
5, 8%
NQF Level 6, 5%
NQF Level 7, 3%
NQF Level 8, 0%
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Thank you
Mark Magill
Senior Economist
T: 02890 366245 E: [email protected] W: www.ulster.ac.uk
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MarkMagill1982
LinkedIn: http://uk.linkedin.com/pub/mark-magill/14/62a/296/