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Agile estimations and Planning

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Agile estimations and Planning. Cornel FATULESCU agile coach. Did It Ever Happen to You?. Who the ... made this estimation? Sorry it will take me than … hours! I hope we’ll deliver tomorrow. I can’t tell you how much time it will take! We don’t have time for testing …. Usual solution. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Agile estimations and Planning Cornel FATULESCU agile coach
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Page 1: Agile estimations and Planning

Agile estimations and Planning

Cornel FATULESCUagile coach

Page 2: Agile estimations and Planning

2

Did It Ever Happen to You?

• Who the ... made this estimation?• Sorry it will take me than … hours!• I hope we’ll deliver tomorrow.• I can’t tell you how much time it will take!• We don’t have time for testing• …

Page 3: Agile estimations and Planning

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Usual solution

Time for an alternative

solution!

Page 4: Agile estimations and Planning

4

Classical IT services supplier scenario

Sales Start-up Ongoing project

Some experts

Some members of newly created

teamThe team

Basic knowledge

Some knowledge

might be lost

Grooming sessions

Release Planning

Capitalize RFP

Knowledge

DoR DoD

Estimations

Initial Release Planning

Product Vision

Initial Backlog

Goals

Problem 1How to

estimate features?

Problem 2How to plan?

Page 5: Agile estimations and Planning

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How to estimate features ?

• What does the team need for each feature in order to increment it?

• How features become part of the increment?

• Estimate the features!

Definition of Ready

Definition of Done

Relative Estimations

Page 6: Agile estimations and Planning

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Feature metamorphosis flow!

Suggestion Assumed Estimated Ready In Progress Pre-Production

Production Done

Page 7: Agile estimations and Planning

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Feature metamorphosis flow!

Suggestion Assumed Estimated Ready In Progress Pre-Production

Production Done

? ? ? ?

Release Planning

End of Release

……

……

… …

Page 8: Agile estimations and Planning

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Sample of Definition of Ready for a featureStory clarified

Tasks identified

Story estimated

Acceptance criteria

Clear dependencies

Scrum Team accepts the story

Responsible for acceptance

User story complies INVEST rules

Page 9: Agile estimations and Planning

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Sample of Definition of Done for a featureDesign complete

Development complete

Code commented

Static code quality analysis

Unit testing is done

Code Refactoring

Code checkin

Continuous build

Tests

Documentation Done

Peer reviews

Jira is updated

Story is accepted

Page 10: Agile estimations and Planning

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Why relative estimations?

• Product Owner: How long it will take to deliver feature A?

• 1st team member : 3 Days

• 2nd team member: 6 Days

Both estimations

might be right!

Page 11: Agile estimations and Planning

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Why relative estimations?

• Product Owner: How long it will take Compared to feature B we’ve done the last time?

• 1st team member : 3 times more

• 2nd team member: I agree, 3 times more

Page 12: Agile estimations and Planning

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Measure the size, calculate the time

Velocity = 𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 =

Page 13: Agile estimations and Planning

13

Measure the size, calculate the time

Velocity = 𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 =

http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/blog/its-effort-not-complexity

Page 14: Agile estimations and Planning

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It’s effort, not complexity

“In a class a few years back, I was given a wonderful example of this. Suppose a team consists of a little kid and a brain surgeon. Their product backlog includes two items: lick 1,000 stamps and perform a simple brain surgery–snip and done. These items are chosen to presumably take the same amount of time. If you disagree, simply adjust the number of stamps in the example. Despite their vastly different complexities, the two items should be given the same number of story points–each is expected to take the same amount of time.”

-Mike Cohnhttp://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/blog/its-effort-not-complexity

Page 15: Agile estimations and Planning

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Visualize the estimations

To estimate

Feature 2

Feature 5

Feature 6

Feature 7

Feature 8

Feature 9

Feature 11

1 SP

Feature 1

Feature 43

Feature 32

Feature 21

Feature 23

2 SPs

Feature 3

Feature 4

Feature 18

3 SPs

Feature 10

Feature 88

5 SPs

Feature 13

Feature 15

8 SPs

Feature 22

5 SPs 6 SPs 6 SPs 10 SPs 8 SPs35 SPs

Page 16: Agile estimations and Planning

How to plan?

16

Our concern?

Release Planning Process

Sprint DoR, DoD

Release DoR, DoD

Page 17: Agile estimations and Planning

What is release planning?

17

• It is a process not an event!Release Planning at project start-

up

Sprint 1

Sprint 2

Sprint 3

Through Grooming Sessions

In Scrum no more than 10% of the

Sprint

Usually more effort needed

than in a sprint

Page 18: Agile estimations and Planning

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Sample of Definition of Ready for a sprintSprint goal

The Sprint Backlog is prioritized

No hidden work

Calculated capacity

Team accepted the Sprint Backlog

All stories meet definition of ready

List of stories for regression testing

Page 19: Agile estimations and Planning

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Sample of Definition of Done for a sprintRelease Build

Functional testing done

Regression testing done

Acceptance testing done by the Product Owner

Closure

Page 20: Agile estimations and Planning

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Sprint ContextTeam size

Focus factor

Sprint size

Calendar days

Velocity

6 People

70%

2 weeks

10 Days

16 SPs

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Estimate 1 SP

• Estimate in hours several features– Ex: Feature 1• Estimated initially at 3 SPs• Estimated in man days at 6 days• =>1 SP = 2 days

• Ask the team directly how they evaluate 1SP?• Experience and measure

Page 22: Agile estimations and Planning

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Calculate Sprints Velocity

Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3

Person days in sprint = calendar days * team size

60 60 60

Ideal person days in sprint = person days in sprint * focus factor

42 42 42

Sprint ideal man days1st sprint = (1-40%) * ideal person days2nd sprint = (1-20%) * ideal person days3rd sprint = ideal person days

25 33 42

Velocity = Sprint ideal man days/1 SP 16 22 28

Team size Focus Factor Sprint Size Calendar Days

1 SP?

6 70% 2 weeks 10 Days 1.5 Man Days

Page 23: Agile estimations and Planning

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Simulate sprints

Backlog

5 SPs

3 SPs

8 SPs

13 SPs

1 SP

2 SP

1 SP

Sprint 1

3 SPs

1 SP

1 SP

5 SPs

2 SPs

2 SPs

1 SPs

Sprint 2

5 SPs

3 SPs

5 SPs

2 SPs

5 SPs

2 SPs

Sprint 3

3 SPs

5 SPs

3 SPs

5 SPs

1 SP

5 SPs

2 SPs

5 SPs

1st Sprint Velocity 16

SPs

2nd Sprint Velocity 22

SPs

2nd Sprint Velocity 28

SPs

Page 24: Agile estimations and Planning

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Measure and re-estimate 1 SP?

• Ex: 1st sprint estimated at 16 SPs velocity– After execution we deliver 12 SPs– Do reverse calculations from the previous slides

Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 1 SP?

Before starting 1st Sprint 16 22 28 1.5

After 1st Sprint 12 16 21 2

After 2nd Sprint 12 16 21 2

Page 25: Agile estimations and Planning

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Criteria for ordering the backlog

• 1st The risk which the story should diminish• 2nd The uncertainty on client needs which the

story should reduce• 3rd The contribution to the product quality• 4th The dependencies between stories• 5th The utility of a story, based on business

value, ROI, costs….

Page 27: Agile estimations and Planning

Estimate how long will the walking take?

Page 28: Agile estimations and Planning

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Walking from Iasi to Bucharest

• Distance Iasi – Bucharest = 417 km• Average walking velocity = 5.0 (km/h) – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking

• We estimate walking 8 hours per day• ~ 10.5 days of walking from Iasi to Bucharest

Page 29: Agile estimations and Planning

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Walking from Iasi to Bucharest

• Initial uncertainty is probably in hours or days

Page 30: Agile estimations and Planning

We walk from Iasi to Roman

Page 31: Agile estimations and Planning

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Walking from Iasi to Bucharest

• Distance Iasi – Roman = ~86 km• Real walking velocity = 4.0 (km/h) • We’ve walked 6 hours per day• ~ 3.6 days of walking from Iasi to Roman

Page 32: Agile estimations and Planning

Estimate from Roman to Bucharest?

Page 33: Agile estimations and Planning

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Walking from Roman to Bucharest

• Distance Roman – Bucharest = ~331 km• Estimated walking velocity = 4.0 (km/h) • Estimated walking hours per day = 6 • ~ 14.8 days of walking from Roman to

Bucharest• Initial cycle time = 10.5 days of walking• Total cycle time = 18.4 days of walking

Page 34: Agile estimations and Planning

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Burn-down chart Iasi-Bucharest

Page 35: Agile estimations and Planning

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What about agile planning poker?

• The most common estimation method known in the agile community

• The interest is in the discussions

Page 36: Agile estimations and Planning

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What about agile planning poker?

• The most common estimation method known in the agile community

• The interest is in the discussions

Page 37: Agile estimations and Planning

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Estimation issues hide higher problems!

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

RAFIdeal RAF

Page 38: Agile estimations and Planning

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Sprint Backlog

1st Story 132nd Story 133rd Story 84th Story 85th Story 13

Page 39: Agile estimations and Planning

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Observed issues

• Just technical stories/no user stories• Stories didn’t correspond to INVEST criteria• Waterfall approach in iterations• Lack of Definition of Ready• Definition of Done was not respected• …

Page 40: Agile estimations and Planning

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Start from the need of information

• Clients want to know when it will be ready, the budget…– Ex: Continuous pulling systems like Kanban=>use average Cycle Time instead

• TODO in another knowledge sharing session!

Page 41: Agile estimations and Planning

Cornel FATULESCUagile coachPlanning is Everything. Plans are Nothing.

- Helmuth von Moltke


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