Agile Project Forecasting Techniques
"Who Says You Can't Plan
Agile Projects?"
Matt Davis, PMP, MCITP October 21, 2013
Learning Objectives
1. Review the Agile Project Management approach and it's relation to other business management processes
2. Examine key critical success factors for implementing Agile project forecasting
3. Learn the key elements of an Agile project schedule with Microsoft Project to support Agile project forecasting
Agile Project Forecasting Techniques
Matt Davis Matthew T. Davis, PMP, MCITP VP of Consulting Services - PM Providers
President – MPUG Boston Chapter
Presentation Outline
1. General Agile Project Management concepts and how they relate to other business processes
2. How competing business needs can be met using Agile forecasting techniques
3. Meeting Management Needs
4. Agile Scheduling Techniques
5. Team & Status Communications
Key ‘Agile’ Concepts
Iterative Development Process with Short Cycles (2-4 Weeks)
A Series of ‘Sprints’
Scope included in a Sprint is fluid
Features / Scope effort scored using ‘Story Points’
Story Cards used for Describing Capabilities
Includes a ‘Groomed Backlog’
Tools include ‘Velocity’ and ‘Burndown Charts’
Encourages Change & Responsiveness
Simplified Agile Management Cycle & Sprints
Document Stories
Size Stories
Plan Sprints
Deliver Stories
Groom Backlog
Document Stories
Size Stories
Plan Sprints
Deliver Stories
Groom Backlog
Document Stories
Size Stories
Plan Sprints
Deliver Stories
Groom Backlog
Document Stories
Size Stories
Plan Sprints
Deliver Stories
Groom Backlog
Document Stories
Size Stories
Plan Sprints
Deliver Stories
Groom Backlog
Document Stories
Size Stories
Plan Sprints
Execute Sprints / Deliver Stories
Groom Backlog
•Story D
•Story F
•Story J
•Story L
Sprint 1 - January
•Story A
•Story Q
•Story Z
Sprint 2 - February
•TBD
•TBD
•TBD
Sprint 3 – March
Story A – 1st Ranking
Story L – 2nd Ranking
Story J – 3rd Ranking
Story Q – 4th Ranking
Story B – 5th Ranking
Standard Business Processes & Attributes
Annual Budgeting Cycle
Business Goals / Vision Planning
Project Proposals and Business Cases
Strategic Project Selection
IT Project Governance
Project Portfolio Planning
Management By Objectives
Key Attributes
Linear – With Deadlines
Progressively Elaborated but over long cycles
Change Handled as Exceptions
Standard Processes & Agile Process Comparison
Document Stories
Size Stories
Plan Sprints Deliver Stories
Groom Backlog
Document Stories
Size Stories
Plan Sprints Deliver Stories
Groom Backlog
Document Stories
Size Stories
Plan Sprints Deliver Stories
Groom Backlog
Document Stories
Size Stories
Plan Sprints Deliver Stories
Groom Backlog
Document Stories
Size Stories
Plan Sprints Deliver Stories
Groom Backlog
Annual Budgeting
•Project Estimates
Budget Reviews
•Revised Project Portfolio
Final Budgets
•Revised Project Portfolio
Governance Gates
•Waterfall Checkpoints
•Requirements
•Design
•Build / Test
•Deployment
Cost / Scope Checkpoints
•Value Realization
Linear Top Level Process
Agile Delivery Process
Integration Points?
Standard Process Value Chains
Value Delivery Chain
Ongoing LOE Incremental Value Ongoing LOE
Projects
FTE-Level Funded Incrementally Funded Flat Funded
Resources
Staffing Projects Systems / Processes
Budgets
Departments Business Initiatives Operations
Mapping Standard Linear Processes to Iterative Agile Processes
Waterfall Lifecycle Phases
Governance Checkpoints / Gates
Budgeting / Funding Cycles
Incremental Scope
Incremental Resources
Sprint Schedule
‘Follow The Money’ Agile Value Delivery Model
Business Initiatives
Agile Project A
System X LOE System Y LOE
Agile Project B
System Z LOE
Incremental
Funding
Incremental
- Scope
- Schedule
- Resources
Flat Funding – Operational / Departmental / FTE Staffing
Fu
nd
ing
Dem
an
d
Value Demand
Value Delivery
Meeting Management Needs What? When? How Much?
What = Story Cards
When = Based on Incremental Resource Capacity & Estimated Velocity Increase
How Much = Total Scope of All Required Story Cards!
Incremental Funding Requirements can be determined using existing Agile PM capabilities
Cost of Resources
Story Points (Effort Estimates)
Sprint Schedule
Agile Forecasting Techniques
Building a sprint schedule
Cost estimating
Resource needs analysis
Working with the backlog
Working with story cards and points
Historical Velocity
Understanding and Using a Burndown Chart
Creating a Velocity Report
Mapping Agile Concepts to Microsoft Project
Agile Concept In Microsoft Project Notes
Sprints Summary Tasks Fixed Dates / Duration
Stories in a Sprint Child Tasks Drag & Drop Management
‘Story Points’ (effort) Custom Field Alias Existing Field Modified Fibonocci Range
Story Cards Notes Page Images, Text, Bullets
Groomed Backlog TaskID is ranking order Drag & Drop Management
Velocity Custom Field & Formula Completed Stories Only
Planned Velocity Custom Field & Formula For sizing a Sprint
Burndown Chart Out of the Box Report NEW in Project 2013!
Velocity Report Custom Report NEW in Project 2013!
Formulas & Story Cards
Velocity
IIf([% Complete]<>100,0,[Duration]/480)
Points Indicator
IIf([Duration]/480=1,"No Story Points",IIf([Duration]/480<=8,"Low",IIf([Duration]/480>=18,"High","Mid")))
Matthew T. Davis
Matt Davis
LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/ matttdavispmp
Live Coaching
http://www.liveperson.com/ expert/mattdpmp/
Thank You!