Climate vulnerability of
the main agroecosystems of Hungary
Ferenc Horváth, MTA ÖK
Nándor Fodor, László Pásztor, MTA ATK
Gábor Illés, NAIK ERTI
András Molnár, ATK
National Adaptation Geoinformation System WS - Budapest, 7-8 November, 2016.
AGRATéR: EXTENSION OF NAGIS
TO THE AGRI-SECTOR
AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS, MODELS
4M
(MTA ATK)
Ecophysiology
daily meteorology
Biome-BGC
(MTA ÖK)
Ecophysiology
daily meteorology
WOOD PROD.
(ERTI)
statistical
monthly meteorol.
CROP
LANDS
4.500.000 ha
maize
& sunflower (!)
wheat,
barly & rape
- - - - - -
GRASS
LANDS
1.155.000 ha
- - -Natural
grasslands- - -
NATURAL
FORESTS
< 1.000.000 ha
- - -
Hardwood,
softwood broad-
leaved forests
Beech, Oak,
Turkey oak
forests
CULTIVATED
FORESTS
> 1.000.000 ha
- - -Pine
plantations
Black locust,
poplar and pine
AGRÁR
ÖKOSZISZTÉMÁK
AGRO
ECOSYSTEMS
AGRÁR
SZEKTOR
AGRICULTURE
SECTOR
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
KITETTSÉG: KLÍMAVÁLTOZÁS
CLIMATIC EXPOSURE
ÉRZÉKENYSÉG
SENSITIVITY
SÉRÜLÉKENYSÉG
VULNERABILITY
ALKALMAZKODÓ KÉPESSÉG
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
VÁRHATÓ HATÁS
POTENTIAL IMPACT
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
Reference period
CC grid 1961-1990
Climate scenarios
ALADIN 2021-2050
ALADIN 2071-2100
RegCM 2021-2050
RegCM 2071-2100
CLIMATIC EXPOSURE
INDICATORS of CLIMATE CHANGE
• Forestry Aridity Index (FAI)
• Pálfai aszályindex …
• Erdészeti klímaöv változás …
1961-1990
2021-2050
2071-2100
ALADIN RegCM
ALADIN RegCM
2021-2050
2071-2100
FAI
aszályindex
Forestry
Aridity Index
CLIMATIC EXPOSURE
KLÍMAVÁLTOZÁS
KITETTSÉGI INDIKÁTOROK
CLIMATE EXPOSURE
INDICATORS
. . . . .
• Légköri CO2 koncentráció
Atmospheric CO2
POTENTIAL IMPACT
CROPLAND ECOSYSTEMS
CHANGE OF AVERAGE YIELDS
Harvest in Autumn VS Harvest in Summer
2021-2050
MAIZE
2071-2100
MAIZE
WHEAT
2021-2050
WHEAT
2071-2100
POTENTIAL IMPACT
GRASSLAND ECOSYSTEMS
CHANGE of PRODUCTIVITY
Grasslands compared to 1961-1990
2021-2050
ALADIN
2071-2100
RegCM
2021-2050
2071-2100
ALADIN RegCM
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON FORESTS
SITE PRODUCTIVITY SCALE (FTO)
1961-1990
1991-2010
GO
OD
>
> >
W
OR
SE
SITE condition is matter … soil types
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON FORESTS
SITE PRODUCTIVITY SCALE (FTO)
SITE CONDITIONS for OAKS
1961-1990
2021-2050
VULNERABILITY
MANAGED FORESTS
SITE CONDITIONS
TREE ADMIXTURES
AGE CLASSES
VULNERABILITY
VULNERABILITY
CROPLANDS
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY =
(3×AK1 + 1×AK2 + 2×AK3 + 0,5×AK4 + 4×AK5) / 10,5
VULNERABILITY
INPUT
INUNDATION
INCOME
QUALIFICATIONS
IRRIGATION
POT. IMPACT
VULNERABILITY
NATURAL GRASSLANDS + GRAZING
ADAPTIVE
SCENARIO
LESS
ADAPTIVE
SCENARIOALADIN
2021-2050
overgrazed
less used
Natura 2000 draw wells diversity
vulnerability
MODELS CAN TAKE A LOT, BUT …
Sustainability of agriculture
. . . Change of cultivars, technology?
Natural vegetation (marsh/grassland, …)
. . . How much resilient to CLC shift?
. . . . . . to CLC extrem events?
. . . How does respond to CLC pressures?
>>> adaptive succession?
>>> damage & regeneration?
>>> … biological invasion?
SINCE THEN …
www.agrater.hu
Thanks for your attention!
