AGRI-BULLETIN The latest NOAA/CPC CFSv2 ensemble model products dated 26 August 2016 indicate that the monthly cumulative rainfall during September is likely to be moderately on the negative side of the normal over most parts of the country except east and northeast India where it is expected to be on the positive side. As per IRI/CPC outlook during mid-August 2016 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was close to -0.5C, approaching the weak La Niña threshold. Most ENSO prediction models indicate SSTs most likely near the borderline of cool-neutral and weak La Niña (average Nino-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5 deg. C) from the present through fall and into winter, with about 55-60% chance. www.weather-risk.com ALL INDIA OBSERVED RAINFALL & VEGETATION STATUS IN AUGUST, 2016 Weather Risk Management Services Pvt. Ltd provides comprehensive climate change related risk management services, including weather forecasts in 15 countries across the globe. Founded in 2004, WRMS has a range of smart products that improve productivity in diverse sectors with least environmental costs. These products are delivered in appropriate formats to clients ranging from Governments and large corporate houses to poor peasants in remotest of villages. New Delhi, Sep 12, 2016 WRMS NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST CALL CENTER In August, India has received rainfall of 247.1mm against 308.3 mm of its climatological normal, witnessing a 19.8% below normal rainfall. Rain deficiency was observed in 20 meteorological sub-divisions mostly in Southern Peninsula, while excess rainfall was witnessed mostly in central India including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Saurashtra & Kutch, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal. Please refer annexure I. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of August-2016 shows an extreme vegetation deficiency in 5 subdivisions, especially in the central India and Western coast indicating that crops grown in these regions are under stress. There is a moderate NDVI deficiency in AP, Telangana, Gujarat and parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka. Please refer Annexure II. ALL INDIA / MONSOON AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK AS ON SEPTEMBER 8, 2016
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AGRI-BULLETIN
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w i n t e r , w i t h a b o u t 5 5 - 6 0 % c h a n c e .
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A L L I N D I A O B S E R V E D R A I N F A L L & V E G E T A T I O N S T A T U S I N A U G U S T , 2 0 1 6
WRMS : A CL IMATE MANAGEMENT COMPANY SOLV I NG CL IMATE RE LATED CHALL ENGES
ACROSS THE GLOBE US I NG DATA , TECHNOLOGY AND F I NANC I A L S ERV I C E S
related risk management services, including weather forecasts in 15 countries across the
globe. Founded in 2004, WRMS has a range of smart products that improve productivity in
diverse sectors with least environmental costs. These products are delivered in appropriate
formats to cl ients ranging from Governments and large corporate houses to poor peasants
in remotest of vi l lages.
New Delhi, Sep 12, 2016
W R M S N A T I O N A L W E A T H E R F O R E C A S T C A L L C E N T E R 75050 22 000
In August, India has received rainfall of 247.1mm against 308.3 mm of its cl imatological
normal, witnessing a 19.8% below normal rainfall . Rain deficiency was observed in 20
meteorological sub-divisions mostly in Southern Peninsula, while excess rainfall was
witnessed mostly in central India including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Saurashtra &
Kutch, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal . Please refer annexure I .
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of August-2016 shows an extreme
vegetation deficiency in 5 subdivisions, especially in the central India and Western coast
indicating that crops grown in these regions are under stress. There is a moderate NDVI
deficiency in AP, Telangana, Gujarat and parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka. Please refer
Annexure II .
A L L I N D I A / M O N S O O N A N D T E M P E R A T U R E O U T L O O K A S O N S E P T E M B E R 8 , 2 0 1 6
Peninsular India - AP, Telangana, Kerala, parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra received very
low rainfall in August, causing crop stress. This is corroborated by our crop surveys in these
regions. However rainfall recovered in the last week of August and the f irst week of
September improving crop situation in these regions. Better estimates on crop situation
can be made when the September NDVI data is available.
Crop situation in MP, Gujarat, South Rajasthan, is worse than what was the case in 2009
when the whole of India was under drought stress. These regions received low rainfall in
July and excess rainfall in August causing inundation in several parts. As a result crop in
these regions is under stress. This is corroborated by our crop surveys in these regions.
The rainfall forecast for the Central India is sl ightly below normal.
Crop situation in 2015 actually deteriorated in September and October due to a dry spell
that started from last week of August and lasted ti l l the end of the Kharif season; However,
rainfall in September and October 2016 is l ikely to be normal; so crops should overall
turnout better than what was the case in 2015.
Crops l ike Bajra, Maize, Pulses, Cotton which are extensively grown in Madhya Pradesh,
Gujarat, Karnataka, South Rajasthan may witness a 5-10% shortfall in production w.r.t the
production in 2015-16.
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A N N E X U R E I / A L L I N D I A O B S E R V E D R A I N F A L L I N J U L Y A N D A U G U S T , 2 0 1 6
S U B D I V I S I O N R A I N F A L L M A P J U L 2 0 1 6 S U B D I V I S I O N R A I N F A L L M A P A U G 2 0 1 6
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2 0 1 6 T i m e P e r i o d 2 0 1 7A N N E X U R E I I / A G R I C U L T U R E P R O D U C T I O N S T A T U S
N D V I M A P O F I N D I A N M E T E O R O L O G I C A L D I V I S I O N 1 2 - 2 7 A U G 2 0 1 6
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A G R I C U L T U R A L V E G E T A T I O N A N O M A L I E S I N D I A N M E T E O R O L O G I C A L D I V I S I O N ( 1 2 - 2 7 A U G 1 6 )
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C E N T R A L I N D I A S O U T H P E N I N S U L A
N O R T H W E S T I N D I A E A S T A N D N O R T H E A S T I N D I A
A L L I N D I A
2 0 1 6 T i m e P e r i o d 2 0 1 7A N N E X U R E I I I / A L L I N D I A % E X P E C T E D M O N T H L Y R A I N F A L L D E V I A T I O N F R O M N O R M A L S
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T - M A X A N O M A L Y ( C ) S E P 2 0 1 6 T - M A X A N O M A L Y ( C ) O C T 2 0 1 6O O
R A I N A N O M A L Y ( % ) S E P 2 0 1 6 RAIN ANOMALY(%) OCT 2016
2 0 1 6 T i m e P e r i o d 2 0 1 7A N N E X U R E I V / A L L I N D I A E X P E C T E D W E A T H E R A N O M A L Y ( % ) I N M O N S O O N 2 0 1 6
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MR. SONU AGRAWAL / Managing DirectorWeather Risk Management Services Pvt. Ltd.sonu.agrawal@weatherrisk.comPh: 01142486389
