AgriculturalorFoodSystemTransformationinAsia?
SureshBabuICABRConferenceonDisruptiveInnovations,ValueChains,andRuralDevelopment
June12-15,2018TheWorldBank,Washington,DC
• Significantprogressinreducinghungerandmalnutrition,butchallengesremain
• TransformationofAsia’sfoodsystemiscrucial– whatarethecurrentchallenges?
• WhatlessonsAsianCountriesoffer?• Evidence-basedPolicyresearchsupport,Datasystems,Capacityforpolicyanalysis
Outline
Asia:Despiteprogress,child undernutritionremainshigh;overweight/obesityrising(Fan,2016)
0
20
40
60
80 Anaemia Vitamin A def.
Prevalence of specific micronutrient deficiencies (%)
Source: FAO 2013
Economic cost of micronutrient deficiencies in Myanmar = 2.4% of
GDP annually
Source:SteinandQaim2007Source: Win 2016
0
20
40
60
Asia SSA Asia SSA Asia SSA Asia SSA
1990 2000 2010 2020
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Prevalence adult overweight/obesity, Southeast Asia, 2014 (%)
28% 21%Female Male
Overweight
Source: WHO 2015
4%8%ObeseFemale Male
Prevalence of child undernutrition (%)
Source: WHO 2012
ChallengestoFoodSystemTransformationinAsia
• Climateresilientfoodsystems• Technologyandinnovationsystems• Institutionalbottlenecks• Policyprocesschallenges• Cross-cuttingissues
Climatechangeandextremeweatherevents(Fan,2016)Overall vulnerability: Physical impacts adjusted for coping ability
Source: Wheeler 2011; OCHA 2016
Rank 1
169
Myanmar ranks 2nd out of 187 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index
TechnologyChallenges
• Technology– laborsaving?
• Gettingoutofagriculture?
• Ruralnon-farmemployment?
Increasingproductivityactorsandplayersinrurallandscape
Farmersand
ExtensioninIndia
ATMA
StateDeptofAg
KrishiVigyanKendra
KisanCallCentre
Massmedia–TV,Radio,Newspapers
Agriclinics
NGOs:BASIX,BAIF
Private:RuralBusinessHubs
ICTprojects
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TechnologytoInstitutionalChallenges
• Institutionstohelpthepoor?• Whoarethepoor?• Wherearethey?• Whyarethey?• Howtohelp?
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RuralInstitutions• TheGramPanchayats– Village
levelgovernance• Linkagestoservicedelivery• Linkagestogovernment
programs• LinkagestoNGOs• LinkagestoPrivateSector• WorkingwithWomenSelfHelp
groups
InstitutionalchallengesaffectMyanmar’sagriculture(TheinandBabu,2015,ADS,2018,Fan,2016)
Agriculturesectorlacksstructuralcompetitiveness,e.g.• Naturalrubberproduction:77%increaseoveronedecade• Sugarcaneproduction:~30%increaseGrowinglandconstraints• Competingusefromothersectors;landspeculation;land
concession• Smallholderswholackassets,creditfinddifficultytopurchase/lease
land• Landconsolidation:Slow,limitedprocessduetorequirementof
hugegovernmentbudget• Soundapproachneeded,e.g.BlockfarminginthePhilippines
FoodSystemtoHealthTransformation?
• MacronutrientstoMicronutrients• Iron– Anemia• VitaminAdeficiency• Childmalnutritionremainshigh• Obesityandoverweight• Foodsystemapproachto
nutrition
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PolicyProcessChallenges• Whatpoliciesareinplace?• Whoreallymakesthepolicy?• Whatprogramsareinplace?• Howtheyaffectpeople?• Howtoinfluencepolicy?• Whatisourunderstandingofthe
policyprocess?• Howtomonitortheimpact?
Resnick,Danielle;Haggblade,Steven;Babu,Suresh;Hendriks,SherylL.;andMather,David.2018.
Thekaleidoscopemodelofpolicychange:ApplicationstofoodsecuritypolicyinZambia.
WorldDevelopment109(September2018):101-120.
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PolicyandProgramInterventions
Ø CashtransfersØ FoodrelatedprogramsØ PriceandtaxsubsidiesØ FeewaiversinhealthØ Publicworks– assetcreationØ Microcreditandinformalinsurance
LessonsfromSelectedAsianCountries
• Bangladesh• China• India• Vietnam• Thailand• WhataboutCambodia,Nepal,LaosandMyanmar?
• Doi Moi reforms– Decollectivization offarmland,equitableland
rights– Liberalizationofagric.marketing,trade,FDI
• Largepublicexpenditurefornutritionandhealth– Nationwidehealthcoverageandsubsidiesto
poorpeople– ~25%ofnationalhealthprogramsonnutrition– Child-healthandfamily-planningprograms
• Supportinghumancapitaldevelopmentandruralnon-farmeconomicgrowth
• Largescalesocialprogramsfornutrition,health,andfamilyplanning
Source: Klump 2007; von Braun et al. 2008; Vandermoortele & Bird 2011
45.6
11
1990-1992 2014-2016
32.3
23.3
1990 2011
Prevalence of undernourishment
Prevalence of child stunting
MDG target achieved
Source: FAO 2015; UNICEF/WHO/WB 2014
LessonsfromVietnam(Fan,2016)
• Decollectivizationofagriculture– IntroductionofHouseholdResponsibilitySystemforsecuring
landrights• Pro-marketreformsanddismantlingofstateplanningand
monopolies• Policiesforhumancapitaldevelopmentandruralnon-farm
economicgrowth• Largescalesocialprogramsincl.onnutrition,health,andfamily
planning• Complementaryinvestmentsineducation,cleanwater,and
goodsanitation Source: von Braun et al. 2008; Fan et al. 2007; Fan 2010
LessonsfromChina(Fan,2016)
• Market-oriented agricultural growth • Modernized marketing chains that connected smallholders to
markets • Increased investments in agricultural research and extension• Product specialization and high diversification
• Integrated and community-based nutrition interventions• Nutrition programs integrated into national plan• Focus on underdeveloped areas and vulnerable populations• Clear linkages between agriculture and nutrition for sustainable
impact• Involvement of community health volunteers for service delivery
Source:Kachondham 1992;FAO2006;vonBraunetal.2008;Leturque andWaggins 2011
LessonsfromThailand(Fan,2016)
• Food Security Mission• Subsidy in fertilizer and irrigation• MSP and assured procurement
Production
• Food reserve and stocks ( > 80 million ton)• 500 thousand fair price shops
Availability
• Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Program
• Direct Cash TransferAccess
• Subsidized food to people BPL• Food Security Bill (Right to Food)
Affordability
Source: Joshi 2013
LessonsfromIndia(Fan,2016)Much effort made to improve food security and nutrition at national, household level
• Integrating nutrition into social safety net improves nutritional outcomes
• ~ 12% of government budget (2.3% of GDP) allocated to social safety net programs for Fiscal Year 2015 in Bangladesh
• Evidence from WFP program – Safety nets reduce household
poverty and improve food security and women’s empowerment
– BUT few improvements on child nutritional status -8
-6
-4
-2
0
Food
Source:Hoddinott,Ahmed,etal.2015
IFPRI/WFPstudy
Cash
Cash+Food
Cash+NutritionBCC
Reductionsinchildstuntingcomparedtocontrol
LessonsfromBangladesh(Fan,2016)
WhataboutDevelopingAsia?Keyattentionareas
• InvestmentinResearchandDevelopment• Smallholdersfarmingandtransformation• ValueChains– farmproducerorganizations• Foodsystemsapproach• Buildresiliencetowardsclimatechange• Multisectoral strategies• Localleveltransformation
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Cross-cuttingIssuesØ StatevsPrivatesectorØ InstitutionalcapacityØ TargetingthevulnerableØ Evaluation– impactvsprocessØ PoliticaleconomyofruraldevelopmentØ GendermainstreamingØ CommunitybaseddevelopmentØ Paradigmshifts– Foodsecurity– FarmingSystems
Research– Livelihoodapproaches– FoodSystemResilience
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CapacityDevelopment?
• Translatepoliciesandprogramsintoaction
• Buildcapacityforlocalgovernance
• Empoweringruralyouth?• RidethenewwaveofHighValueAgriculture
• Public-PrivatePartnerships
Thank you…..
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