Agricultural Research, Tools,and, Engagement,

Senthold Asseng, Wendy-Lin Bartels, Dan Dourte, Clyde Fraisse, Carrie Furman, Pam

Knox, Brenda Ortiz, George Vellidis

Exploring a) decadal variability and b) ensembles to improve seasonal forecast skill for the southeast USA

Time series plot of Wheat yields from 1903 to 2008 at North-ALoriginal time series after standardization11-year moving average5-year moving average

Year (-)

Simulated wheat yields anomalies (-)

Di Tian, Senthold Asseng, Chris Martinez (UF), Vasu Misra (FSU), Davide Cammarano (UF), Brenda Ortiz (AU)

Melissa A. Ramírez-Rodrigues, Senthold Asseng (UF),Lydia Stefanova (FSU), Brenda Ortiz (AU),

Clyde Fraisse, Diego Valderrama d and Salvador Gezán (UF)

A B

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Effects on Hessian Fly Infestation in the Southeastern USA

Prem Woli, Brenda Ortiz, David Buntin, Kathy Flanders

- To examine the effect of ENSO on Hessian Fly Infestation (HFI) in the Southeastern USA.

- To explore relationship between HFI and weather and wheat area.

- To assess the impact of HFI on wheat yield as influenced by ENSO.

Objectives

Results

The HFI prediction model was based on:- Temperature and Precipitation of Aug-Sep (TAS, PAS) and Oct-Feb (TOF, POF) periods PLUS- Change in wheat area in the preceding year (ΔWA)

Hessian Fly Infestation was significantly lower in El Niño than in the other phases of ENSO

HFIPGriffin = 0.012ΔWA + 0.045PAS – 0.017POF – 5.574TAS + 3.139TOF + 112.3

HFI and Yield by ENSO and Variety

Corn Aflatoxin Contamination Risk Prediction Based On a Drought Index

Damianos Damianidis, Brenda V. Ortiz, Gary L. Windham, Prem Woli

– To model the probability of aflatoxin contamination using the Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID).

– To determine time windows during the growing season when changes in drought conditions will change the risk for aflatoxin.

– To determine how aflatoxin risk changes are affected by soil type and corn hybrids

Objectives

Assessing the risk for aflatoxin contamination pre-planting or in-season could be used to support changes to management practices

Methods– Logistic regression was performed to test the relationship between monthly ARID and corn aflatoxin level exceeding 20 ppb

ResultsAflaroxin risk for two soil types @ 1 wk before silking

- The highest risk to have aflatoxin occurs the week before silking. - ARID can be used to predict Aflatoxin risk.- As ARID values increase, aflatoxin risk increases. Risk changes by soil type.

• Evaluated the performance of SimCLIM for generating climate projections of specific locations.

• 15 downscaled GCMs were not significantly different.

• SimCLIM can provide good projections for climate mean but not for variability.

Evaluation of SimCLIM Performance in the Southeast Yawen Bao, Gerrit Hoogenboom, George Vellidis

Maximum Temperature

Box plots of projections based on 15 GCMs and observations

Soil Field Capacity Calculation Using the van Genuchten Model for Irrigation Scheduling and Drought Resilience

Xi Liang, Vasilis Liakos, George Vellidis

Soil water characteristics, e.g., FC, ψm at FC, and PWP

Soil water release processes

AgroClimate Components

1. Decision support tools• Climate tools• Crop development and yield• Drought indices• Crop diseases• Footprint calculators

2. Forecasts and outlooks3. Monthly climate reports4. Information about management practices to increase resource use

efficiency and reduce risk5. Information about climate-related topics

Recently released tools: Climate risk - Maps

Engagement with Stakeholder Groups

Federation of Southern Cooperatives

Georgia Organics Conference

Tri-State Working Group

Southeast Climate Extension ProjectRecipient of the 2014 USDA NIFA Partnership

Award - Multistate Efforts

Clyde Fraisse, Project Director

Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA)

“On the CASE” BlogClimate and

Agriculture in the Southeast

Pam KnoxAgricultural

Climatologist

Course statistics:

• About 200 people have registered for the course

• 53% have completed the course (15 hours)

• Participants earn 10 hrs of Continuing Ed credits

• Post-course survey shows that the participants are more open to discussing climate change issues with their clients

Animal Agriculture in a Changing ClimateMark Risse and Pam Knox