Agriculture & Food SecurityClimate Change Training Module
625 Robert Street NorthPO Box 64975
St. Paul, MN 55164-0975
Minnesota Climate and Health ProgramMinnesota Department of Health
Environmental Impacts Analysis Unit
Agriculture & Food Security Climate Change Training Module
MDH developed this presentation based on scientific research published in peer-reviewed journals. References for information can be found in the relevant slides and/or at the end of the presentation.
Notice
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• Food Security• Observed Climate Changes• Crop Production• Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry• Culturally Important Foods• Other Issues• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
Outline
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• Food Security:1. Food safety2. Amount of food
“all people at all times have both physical and
economic access to access to sufficient, safe and
nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life”
- World Health Organization
Definitions
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(Source: Ye, 2013)
• Economic impact of Minnesota’s agriculture:– $75 billion per year in agricultural production and processing – Employment impact: 342,000 jobs
• Nationally, Minnesota is top 10 in more than 20 agricultural products:
– #1 turkey, sugar beets– #2 hogs, sweet corn for processing, oats, wild rice– #3 soybeans, spring wheat, green peas for processing, dry edible beans– #4 corn, canola, flaxseed– #5 mink pelts– #6 dairy cows, red meat, hay, cheese, honey– #7 milk, potatoes, sunflowers– #9 cattle and calves– #10 lamb
• If MN agriculture was disrupted, it could have a great impact on our economy and food security for the U.S. and internationally
Minnesota Agriculture
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(Source: NCADAC, 2013)
• Minnesotans consume food from a global market; food security is impacted by climate change not just in Minnesota
• Climate change could affect– Amount of food
produced– Variety and
nutritional value of food
– Cost of food
Food Security and Health
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• Food Security• Observed Climate Changes• Crop Production• Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry• Culturally Important Foods• Other Issues• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
Outline
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(Source: NASA, 2005)
Weather – conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time
Climate – conditions of the atmosphere over long periods of time (30- year standard averaging period)
Definitions
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(Sources: Seeley, 2012; Zandlo, 2008)
There have been three recent significant observed climate trends in Minnesota:
The average temperature is increasing
The average number of days with a high dew point may be increasing
The character of precipitation is changing
Observed Climate Changes
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(Sources: Western Regional Climate Center, 2011a; Seeley, 2012)
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
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(Source: Zandlo, 2008)
Winter temperatures have been rising about twice as fast as annual average temperatures
Minimum or ‘overnight low’ temperatures have been rising faster than maximum or ‘daytime high’ temperatures
Significant observations in warming pattern:
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
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(Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center, 2012)
WINTER: + 2.2°AUTUMN: + 0.5°
SUMMER: + 0.8°SPRING: + 1.6°
Seasonal Temperature Trends (°F per century) Based on 1895-2010 Data
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
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(Sources: Horstmeyer, 2008; Seeley, 2012)
Dew point – a measure of water vapor in the air
A high dew point makes it more difficult for sweat to evaporate off the skin, which is one of the main mechanisms the body uses to cool itself
The number of days with high dew point temperatures (≥ 70°F) may be increasing in Minnesota
Dew Point Changes
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(Sources: Seeley, 2012; State Climatology Office, 2012)
Num
ber o
f Day
s
Dew Point Changes
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(Source: Western Regional Climate Center, 2011b)
Changes in Precipitation
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(Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center, 2012)
WINTER: + 0.3°AUTUMN: + 1.2 in
SUMMER: + 0.8 inSPRING: + 0.7 in
Seasonal Precipitation Trends (inches per century) Based on 1895-2010 Data
Precipitation Changes in Minnesota
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(Sources: Seeley, 2012; State Climatology Office, 2012c)
Precipitation in Minnesota is changing:
More localized, heavy precipitation events
Potential to cause both increased flooding and drought
Changes in Precipitation
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• Food Security• Observed Climate Changes• Crop Production• Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry• Culturally Important Foods• Other Issues• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
Outline
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CROP PRODUCTION
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(Source: Walthall et al, 2012)
Changing climatic conditions will impact Minnesota crop production in four primary ways:
1. Long-term changes in average temperatures and precipitation patterns
2. Increase in pests and invasive species3. Acute losses resulting from more frequent and
intense weather extremes4. Impacts of runoff, soil erosion and reduced
infiltration from increased intensity of storm events
Climate Change Impacts
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COCO22
(Sources: USDA Global Change Task Force, 2010; Walthall et al, 2012)
Crop production relies on a balance of temperature and precipitation, soil composition, and atmospheric CO2
Complex System
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Growing season
Earlier spring thaw
+ 2 weeks =Growing season
(Sources: NCADAC, 2013; CCSP, 2008)
Earlier Minnesota spring = longer growing season – Midwest growing season lengthened by almost two
weeks since 1950, due in large part to earlier timing of the last spring freeze
– Earlier pollination– Longer growing season may increase crop production– Species’ distributions have shifted
Longer Growing Season
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(Source: National Wildlife Federation, 2010)
Climate change has not only brought Minnesota a longer growing season but also changes in the types of plants that will thrive here
Changing Plant Hardiness Zones
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(Sources: NCADAC, 2013; Walthall et al, 2012; California Climate and Agricultural Network, 2011)
Increase number of frost-free days and reduced “winter chill hours”• Many crops require minimum number
of days near freezing to keep plants dormant during winter
In warmer winters crops bud or bloom earlier • Pro: Longer growing season and
potentially larger harvest• Con: Increased risk of damage from late
spring frost (e.g., Minnesota apples and Michigan cherries in 2012)
Effects of Frost Days
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(Sources: Beddow, Pardey and Seeley, 2012; Walthall et al, 2012; NCADAC, 2013)
• With warmer temperatures in Minnesota, pests, diseases and weeds may:– Expand northward into climate-
stressed areas– Survive warming winters better– Require increased use of pesticides
and herbicides
Pests, Diseases and Weeds
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(Sources: Oxfam Issue Briefing, 2012; Walthall et al, 2012; Seeley, 2008)
Warmer Minnesota summers and Higher maximum temperatures may
• Increase crop yields with some warming• Decrease crop yields with too much warming
Warmer Summers
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(Sources: Walthall et al, 2012; Hanks, 2013; NCADAC, 2013)
Warmer Minnesota nights and higher minimum temperatures may
• Stress some plants, taxing their ability to grow and resulting in lower yields
• Cause some plants, such as tomatoes, to ripen faster
• Disturb pollination and lower crop productivity and reduce quality
Warmer Nights & Minimum Temps
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(Sources: Davis, Epp and Riordan, 2004; Taub, Miller and Allen, 2008; NCADAC, 2013)
Globally, the nutritional value of some foods may
change due to•Elevated atmospheric CO2 (increased carbohydrates, decreased protein & vitamins)•Changes in cultivated varieties (favor yield over nutrient content)
Nutritional Value
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(Sources: Walthall et al, 2012; Reich, 2012; NCADAC, 2013)
Potentially Healthy Crop
GrowthIncreased CO2
Healthy Crop Growth
Increased Precipitation
Inadequate Water
Existing Amounts of Precipitation
Effects of Increased Evapotranspiration in Three Scenarios
Increased Evapo-
transpiration and Crop
Water Demand/Use
Increased Temperature
Complex interactions of temperature and precipitation
Temperature Effects on Water Demand
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2007 Declared Disasters:X= DroughtX = Flood
(Sources: Seeley, 2012; CDC, U.S. EPA, NOAA and AWWA, 2010; IDWG on Climate Change, 2008)
Precipitation variability can cause drought•Localized, heavy storms can result in inadequate precipitation in some regions of the state•Impacts crop yields •Prolonged droughts can increase fire danger
Flood and Drought
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(Sources: NOAA, 2012; USDA NASS, 2013)
“Crop Production Down in 2012 Due to Drought, USDA Reports”
Drought
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Source: Farm Industry News May 24, 2012
(Sources: NCADAC, 2013; Walthall et al, 2012)
Increased precipitation in Minnesota has been driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls, resulting in:•Flooded fields and damaged crops•Increased runoff and reduced infiltration of water for crop use •Increased soil erosion, leading to – Soil nutrient loss – Sediment contamination of
nearby water bodies
Precipitation Effects: Flooding
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Source: MPR News photos of the week, June 15, 2012(Photo courtesy of Pat Baskfield )
(Sources: Nearing et al, 2005, Sinha and Cherkauer, 2010)
Runoff and erosion will be affected most by•High rainfall intensity •Soil quality•Low crop cover in spring and fall •Land use
Runoff and Erosion
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• Food Security• Observed Climate Changes• Crop Production• Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry• Culturally Important Foods• Other Issues• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
Outline
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LIVESTOCK: CATTLE, DAIRY ANIMALS, SWINE & POULTRY
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(Source: NCADAC, 2013)
Changing climatic conditions affect animal agriculture in four primary ways:
1. Feed-grain production, availability, and price 2. Pastures and forage crop production and
quality 3. Animal health, growth, and reproduction4. Disease and pest distributions
Climate Change Impacts
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(Source: NCADAC, 2013)
• Animal health is highly susceptible to temperature:– Heat stress negatively affects cattle, swine and
poultry health– Warmer winters may reduce mortality but will
likely be offset by greater mortality in hotter summers
Animal Health
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(Source: CCSP, 2008)
• Hotter temperatures may reduce productivity of livestock and dairy animals – Animals lose appetite, gain weight slower and
take longer to get to market– Production decreases, including milk from dairy
cattle and eggs from poultry– Reproduction decreases
resulting in smaller herds
Animal Growth & Reproduction
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(Source: Walthall, 2012)
• Climate change may affect – Frequency, intensity, or
distribution of animal diseases and pests
– Livestock’s resistance to infections and diseases
Disease and Pest Distributions
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• Food Security• Observed Climate Changes• Crop Production• Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry• Culturally Important Foods• Other Issues• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
Outline
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CULTURALLY IMPORTANT FOODS IN MINNESOTA
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(Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; NCADAC, 2013)
• Climate change will affect the availability and affordability of social and cultural foods– Mental health effects– Physical health effects
• Shortages of culturally important foods for tribal community members in Minnesota– Natural wild Rice– Moose – Traditional, cold-water fish
Culturally Important Foods
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Map of Wild Rice Locations Source: MN DNR
(Sources: DNR, 2008; Myers, 2012)
• Greatest long-term threat to natural wild rice is climate change
• Negative effects on wild rice:
– Hot & dry conditions – Warmer winters– Warm, humid conditions– Severe weather:
• 2012 Northeast flood
Wild Rice
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Source: MN DNR(Sources: DNR, 2011; DNR, 2013; Orrick, 2013;
• Moose are a critical component of the cultural identity northern Minnesota, cultural food source
• Decline in Minnesota moose population
• Causes of mortality are likely health- and stress-related factors• Warming climate is a contributing
factor in high mortality
Moose
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CONCEPTUAL DIAGRAM OF CLIMATE WARMING EFFECTS ON MINNESOTA FISH
COMMUNITIES
Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; Peter Jacobson, DNR Fisheries Research Supervisor
• In Minnesota, climate change is warming waters
• Warming waters stress native fish populations and may favor invasive species
Fish: Warmer Water
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Walleye, StarTribune, April 15, 2013
(Sources: CDC, U.S. EPA, NOAA and AWWA, 2010; Monson, 2009)
• Warmer waters and rainfall intensity may be contributing to an increase in mercury concentrations in fish (27)
• Climate change may lower water levels • Which affects
concentration of contaminants in the water, the concentration of toxic chemicals in fish and quantity of fish
Fish: Water Quality Impacts
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• Food Security• Observed Climate Changes• Crop Production• Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry• Culturally Important Foods• Other Issues• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
Outline
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OTHER ISSUES
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(IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; NCADAC, 2013)
• Food prices may rise if • Production declines• Prices of inputs
increase (such as, petroleum-based fertilizers and pesticides)
• Food insecurity increases with rising food prices
Food Prices
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Image source: Pete Markham
(Source: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008)
Climate change impact on food system delivery:•Damage to transport and distribution infrastructure from extreme weather events•Barging/shipping: low water levels in Mississippi and Lake Superior
Food System Delivery
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(Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; Portier et al, 2010)
Impacts of climate change on food safety: •Increased need of climate control to prevent food spoilage
•Increased runoff or flooding from livestock to nearby fields may cause crop contamination and damage to stored food
Food Safety
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• Food Security• Observed Climate Changes• Crop Production• Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry• Culturally Important Foods• Other Issues• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
Outline
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Best Management Practices
Adapt to climate change
ADAPTATION & BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES
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(Source: NCADAC, 2013)
• Adaptation is not new to agriculture• Adaptation practices will vary by location due
to climatic, soil and topographic variability• Strategies may include:– Biodiversity– Wetland restoration– Reduce soil erosion– Mitigate heat effects on livestock
Adaptation
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(Source: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; FAO, 2013)
Agrobiodiversity includes: •Harvested crops, livestock breeds, fish species, and wild plants and animals•Supportive species: soil micro-biota, bees, earthworms, etc.•Supportive ecosystems0
• Biodiversity increases resilience to changing environmental conditions and stresses
• Increases potential to adapt to climate change
Biodiversity
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Source: MDA, 2007Wetlands and buffers can help manage too much or too little precipitation
MN wetland restoration:•500,000 acres of wetlands and associated upland buffers restored (as of 2007)
Wetland & Buffer Management
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Source: Farmer D Blog, by Steven Bell on November 14, 2011
(Source: Walthall et al, 2012)
• Strategies :– Conservation tillage– Crop residue management– Perennial crops and cover crops– Management of livestock grazing intensities
• Strategies may also enhance water management during drought
• Soil and nutrient erosion rates may increase with more intense rainfall events associated with climate change
Reduce Soil Erosion
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(Sources: UC-Davis, UMN and WSU, 2012; UMN Extension, 2012)
• Hot weather increases water consumption– Cattle increase their water consumption by 20-50% when heat
stressed • Alleviate heat stress in cattle, poultry and swine
– Install cooling systems (evaporative cooling, air conditioning or geothermal)– Increase air movement– Provide plenty of water and shade– Manage diet for weather (type of food and time of day)
Mitigate Heat Effects
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Source: Minnesota Grown Pick of the Month newsletter, January/February 2013
• Diverse food supply – balance of food grown locally and regionally– Diversity of locally grown
food insulates MN from climate change impacts in other states and countries
– Minnesota Grown promotes local producers of specialty crops and livestock
http://www3.mda.state.mn.us/mngrown/
Promote Diverse Food Supply
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Spotlight on SHIP
From 2009-2012 Statewide Health Improvement Program (SHIP) funds have funded local public health activities that support healthy eating and local farms. Achievements include:•Farm to School programs in 440 schools, reaching 235,00 students •95% increase in the number of farmers markets across the state
*SNAP = Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as Food Stamps**WIC = Women, Infants and ChildrenBoth programs are supported by USDA
Increase food security through programs that support food education and health eating•Food education•Promote local food initiatives– Farm to School programs– Farmers’ markets
•Accept SNAP* and WIC** at produce and farmers’ markets
Local Public Health Actions
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Reduce potential increases in foodborne illnesses due to changes in temperature and precipitation•Educate on proper food handling (e.g., washing fruits and vegetables)•Monitor MDH website for warnings on fish consumption: http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/fish/
Local Public Health Actions
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Summary
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Special thanks to the following people for their contributions to the creation of this training module:
Mark Abrahamson, Minnesota Department of Agriculture Minden Buswell, University of MinnesotaMary Hanks, Minnesota Department of AgricultureKevin Hennessy, Minnesota Department of Agriculture Larry Jacobson, University of MinnesotaKathy Kromroy, Minnesota Department of Agriculture Ann Pierce, Minnesota Pollution Control AgencyDavid Schmidt, University of MinnesotaJoshua Stamper, Minnesota Department of Agriculture Curt Zimmerman, Minnesota Department of Agriculture Mark Zumwinkle, Minnesota Department of Agriculture
This work was supported by cooperative agreement 5UE1EH000738 from the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Acknowledgements
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August 26, 2013
Contact the Minnesota Climate and Health Program:
651-201-4898
http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/
Questions?
Thank You
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• United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service .Plant Hardiness Zone: What’s New. Website. Accessed May 15, 2013. Available at http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/AboutWhatsNew.aspx
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