Agriculture and Food Agriculture and Food Security Security PV Srinivasan IGIDR
Transcript
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Agriculture and Food Security PV Srinivasan IGIDR
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Outline What are Indias achievements in food security? (facts
and figures: aggregate and micro) How does agriculture affect food
security? Role of policies and institutions Interactions between
policies and roles of agriculture
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Food security at the national level aggregate food availability
and stability Cereal consumption Food prices Dependence on imports
Availability of nutrients Stability in nutrient availability
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Per capita per diem nutrient intake calories (Kcal/day)proteins
(grams/day) fats (grams/day) Rural 1993-94 215360.231.4 1999-2000
214959.136.1 RDA 24006040 Urban 1993-94 207157.242 1999-2000
207158.549.6 RDA 22006040
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Stability in the availability of nutrients 40 years,
1961-200020 years, 1981-2000 Probability of a shortfall in
consumption below 95% of trend Coefficient of variation*
Probability of a shortfall in consumption below 95% of trend
Coefficient of variation* Calories8.2%3.617.0%5.2
Proteins20.5%6.122.7%6.7 Fats7.6%3.527.5%8.4
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Food security at the household level Trends in poverty
Distribution and concentration of poverty Calorie consumption
trends Sources of calories
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Cumulative distribution functions for MPCE- all temp self
employed- non agriculture agricultural labor other labor self
employed- agriculture 451499.000016.997982
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How does Agriculture affect food security? How does Agriculture
affect food security? What are the main channels through which
agriculture affects food security? Pecuniary externalities Non
pecuniary externalities
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Pecuniary externalities economic access through employment and
income generation productivity increase leading to lower prices and
higher wages increased demand for non-agriculture products leading
to greater employment in non- farm activities in rural and urban
areas
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Non pecuniary externalities Increased stability Reduced
inequalities Better nutrition, reduced decease burden and greater
productivity
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Is self-sufficiency important? provides insurance against
unexpected external events Is self sufficiency associated with
greater consumption stability? Are food deficit regions calorie
deficient?
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Does source of income matter for consumption behavior?
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Budget shares on Cereals
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Budget shares on Milk and Milk products
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Budget shares on Vegetables and fruits
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Budget share on all food items
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Does source of income matter? Are the responses of consumption
to income changes different? Regression analysis Dependent
variable: Calorie intake or per capita cons expenditure Independent
variables: employed in agriculture/ non agriculture household
income household size other relevant socio-economic factors and
community- level variables
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Income elasticity of food expenditure by household groups
CerealsPulsesMilk and milk produ cts Edible oils Meat, fish and
eggs SugarVegetabl es All food Bottom 25% households Self employed
in non agriculture 0.811.111.481.050.840.961.040.99 Agriculture
labor0.761.051.40.941.131.071.030.96 Non - agriculture
labor0.58*1.45*0.65*0.930.641.32*0.940.87* Self -employed
agriculture 0.61*1.131.151.011.031.10.90.88*
Others0.861.351.371.311.251.220.681.13 Top 25 % households Self
employed in non agriculture 0.110.470.90.40.710.530.680.52
Agriculture labor0.24*0.360.45**0.330.510.540.38**0.39 Non -
agriculture labor0.210.530.57**0.470.60.480.56*0.44 Self -employed
agriculture 0.150.480.870.410.760.7**0.680.58*
Others0.110.370.880.380.660.450.70.49
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Income elasticity of calories Total caloriesCerealsNon cereals
Self employed- non agriculture0.400.120.92 Agricultural
labor0.47**0.27**1.02** Other labor0.380.120.98 Self employed-
agriculture0.430.180.95 Other income sources0.370.100.83**
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Role of policies and institutions Price support and price
stabilization policies Social safety net policies: PDS, EGS, ICDS
etc Input subsidies Public investment Self help groups and user
associations
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PoliciesImpacts on Self sufficiencyStability in food production
Stability in prices/ consumpti on Food Security (Economic and
physical access to food) Exchange rate policies (e.g. currency
devaluation)+??? Monetary policies: e.g. increase credit supply or
reduce interest rates ++++ Fiscal policies: e.g. decrease in public
expenditure---- Trade liberalization--?? Marketing policies: e.g.
deregulation of domestic trade??++ Price support policies for
agricultural output++++ Input subsidies: on electricity, water,
fertilizers and credit++++ Public investment: irrigation, roads,
marketing infrastructure, research and extension ++++ Public
Distribution System (PDS) providing price subsidies to consumers on
rice, wheat, sugar and edible oils ++++ Employment Guarantee in
lean agricultural season and food for work programs for rural
workers below poverty line ++++ Mid-Day Meals scheme (distribution
of foodgrains or providing cooked meals in primary schools) ++++
Nutrition schemes such as ICDS (supplementary feeding of
malnourished children, adolescent girls and pregnant and nursing
mothers) ++++
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Policies that diminish the importance of self- sufficiency
Policies that promote domestic and external trade through reduced
transaction costs and transport costs (lead to reduction in the
price-spread between surplus and deficit regions) strengthen the
PDS in deficit regions by providing higher and better targeted
subsidies Lesser dependence on buffer stocks, use of variable
levies and greater role for markets in managing risk- commodity
futures
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Policies enhancing positive externalities Investment in Ag
research for poor areas and farmers and natural resource management
Rationalize regressive input subsidies and increase public
investment in poor areas new institutional mechanisms for effective
cost recovery and rational use of inputs (irrigation water and
power) Decentralized efforts and better institutional mechanisms to
reduce leakages, improve targeting in PDS, JSGY, and EGS etc.
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Summing up Need to take a broader perspective Not just
availability and stability in the aggregate Focus on economic
access and cons stability Not just cereal security diversified diet
Nutrition security Not just calorie intake- micro nutrients
important Focus on malnourishment not just under nourishment
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Summing up Agriculture is important for food security Need for
policy intervention Buffer stocks, price stab, PDS, EGS, other
safety nets Public investment and ag research and extn should
address needs of poor and marginal areas Self sufficiency important
for strategic reasons, livelihood, presence of weak redistributive
mechanisms Greater cons stability, leads to better nutrition
intakes
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Summing up Source of income not important Differences in
elasticities across hh types small But poor have higher
calorie-income elasticities Need to increase their purchasing power
Need to adopt policies that enhance positive externalities