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Agriculture – Global, Agriculture – Global, Regional and National Regional and National Issues in PerspectiveIssues in Perspective
Mangala RaiPresident
National Academy of Agricultural SciencesNew Delhi, India
• First World Food Summit promised to “eradicate world hunger within a decade”.
• Since then, 3 World Food Summits held and resolved to reduce world hunger only to half by 2015.
• Different scenarios depict 2.3% to 3.3% global economic growth and population varying from 8.1 to 14.0 billion in 2080.
Where We Stand ?
People at risk of hunger, baseline projection
REF-01 Million
2000 2010 2020 2030 2050
Africa 198 253 289 319 326
Asia, East 172 142 111 80 35
Asia, South 359 361 303 219 72
Latin America
58 61 55 51 30
Middle East & N. Africa
43 50 49 50 39
Rest of World 53 51 47 46 33
World 884 918 854 765 536
Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of cereals on current rainfed cultivated
land, HadCM3 A2, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s
Source: Fischer et al., 2008.
Current climate HadCM3 A2 2020s HadCM3 A2 2050s HadCM3 A2 2080sArea Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield
mln ha mln tons t/ha % change % change % change
Northern Africa 8 43 5.3 -1 3 4 -6 -7 -1 -23 -28 -6Western Asia 19 93 5.0 -1 2 3 -2 1 2 -5 -7 -2Central Asia 11 34 3.1 -2 13 15 -15 9 27 -28 -11 24
Developed 446 2586 5.8 2 2 0 3 3 0 1 -1 -1Developing 559 3529 6.3 0 2 2 -1 2 3 -6 -5 2
World 1004 6116 6.1 1 2 1 0 2 2 -3 -3 0
Note: Results include CO2 fertilization and assume rational adaptation and transfer of crop types and selection of best crop.
Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of
cereals on rainfed cultivated land, HadCM3 A2 2080s
Source: Fischer et al., 2008.
Current climate Adaptation 1 Adaptation 1 + CO2 fert. Adaptation 2 + CO2 fert.Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield
mln ha mln tons t/ha % change % change % change
Northern Africa 7 56 8.5 -23 -35 -15 -23 -30 -8 -23 -28 -6Western Asia 4 34 8.4 -7 -15 -9 -7 -8 -1 -5 -7 -2Central Asia 0 1 8.0 -24 -14 13 -24 -8 22 -28 -11 24
Developed 55 434 7.9 0 -9 -10 1 -1 -2 1 -1 -1Developing 197 1614 8.2 -10 -18 -10 -10 -13 -4 -6 -5 2
World 252 2048 8.1 -5 -14 -10 -5 -8 -3 -3 -3 0
Note:Adaptation 1: Assumes adaptation with local varieties only but choice of most productive cereal crop.Adaptation 1 + CO2: Includes CO2 fertilization and assumes adaptation with local varieties only but choice of most productive cereal crop.Adaptation 2 + CO2 Includes CO2 fertilization and adaptation with best suited variety and choice of most productive cereal crop.
Economic Impacts of Climate Change
Hadley A1F1 Scenario 2080 % Ag GDP % Cereal
ProductionWorld -1.5 -1.4Developed -0.5 2.8North America 7.5 1.3Europe -14.7 -3.4
Developing -1.9 -3.9
Africa -4.9 -0.6
Latin America 3.7 15.9Asia -4.3 -8.6
World Market prices( % change from Ref Scenario)
Cereals : 19.5% All crops : 10.5%
Agriculture Spending to Total Spending by Developing Country Governments
Year Africa Asia Latin America
1980 6.4 15.0 8.0
2002 4.5 5.6 2.5
(in %)
Country Background
Pressure on land indicated by ratio of agricultural workers to arable land
Agriculture workers/100 ha. of arable land
Country 1989-90 2003-04 Afghanistan 52 67 Bangladesh 361 495 Bhutan
India 141 172 Maldives
Nepal 366 473 Pakistan 77 79 Sri Lanka 270 260
Source : FAO database.
Trend in Food InflationYear on Year (%) Change
Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Bangladesh 2.6 1.4 1.6 3.5 6.9 7.9 7.7 8.2 12.3
Bhutan* 4.0 3.4 2.5 2.6 4.2 5.3 5.0 5.2 8.4
India 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.4 2.8 3.3 7.6 9.3 14.1
Maldives* -1.2 0.7 0.9 -2.9 6.4 1.6 3.5 7.4 12.3
Nepal 0.4 -2.3 3.7 4.4 3.3 4.0 7.8 7.2 10.1
Pakistan 2.2 3.6 2.5 2.8 6.0 12.5 6.9 10.3 17.7
Sri Lanka 4.5 15.2 10.6 2.6 9.1 11.4 8.9 20.3 30.5
* Consumer price inflationSource: ADB
Food inflation started rising from 2004. Reached double digit during 2008. It is continuing to remain high even during 2009.
Projected impacts of climate change
Increasing temperature would increase fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; and result in higher emissions
Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.
Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock
These emissions are largely from the industrialized countries as is evident from the per capita emission of greenhouse gases of different
regions
Europe
Africa
Japan, Australia and New zealand
South AsiaEast Asia
USA and Canada
Latin AmericaMiddle East
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Region
ton
s o
f C
O2
eq
/ca
pit
a
How can we Reduce Emission of Greenhouse Gases from Agriculture?
Improve management of water and fertilizers in rice paddies; use nitrification inhibitors, fertilizer placement/schedules
Improve management of livestock population and its diet Increase soil carbon: minimal tillage, residue management Improve energy use efficiency in agriculture: better designs
of machinery, and by conservation practices Change land use: increasing area under biofuels, agro-
forestry - but trade-off with food production.
Investments in adaptation research capacity: varieties, land use systems, resource conservation technologies, pest surveillance
Changes in policies e.g. incentives for conservation of carbon, water, and energy; and use efficiency, pricing of resources
Investments in infrastructure for water management Greater insurance coverage for the farm Improved communication of climate changes and options to adapt
to them Creating alternate livelihood options and reducing dependence on
agriculture
How to adapt Agriculture to Climate Change?
Enhance Research Capacity and International Collaboration
Development of climate responsive crops and land use systems
Seasonal weather forecasts Regionally differentiated contingency plans for increased
risk management Reexamine water and fertilizer management with added
dimension of reducing GHG emissions. Determine optimal size of livestock population considering
milk requirement, diet, greenhouse gas emissions, and social issues.
Development of decision support systems for policy guidance
Establish an Agricultural Intelligence System for impact of weather and inputs on production of important commodities at national as well as international level.
Increase pest surveillance Explore feasibility of establishing feed, fodder, and seed
banks Increase farm insurance coverage using weather derivatives Enhance climate literacy
Strengthen Institutions
Major Challenges in Agriculture Raise and sustain agriculture growthRaise and sustain agriculture growth Enhance income and employmentEnhance income and employment Ensure food and nutrition securityEnsure food and nutrition security Adapt to climate changeAdapt to climate change Adjust to changes in energy scenarioAdjust to changes in energy scenario Maintain bio safety and bio securityMaintain bio safety and bio security Make sustainable use of natural resourcesMake sustainable use of natural resources Protect bio-diversityProtect bio-diversity Adjust to global shocksAdjust to global shocks
New Opportunities
Biotechnology and Nanotechnology opens new vistasBiotechnology and Nanotechnology opens new vistas Renewed emphasis on agriculture likely to turn the Renewed emphasis on agriculture likely to turn the
environment favourableenvironment favourable Trend towards Bios:Trend towards Bios:
Bio pesticide, bio sensors, bio remediation, bio molecules, Bio pesticide, bio sensors, bio remediation, bio molecules, bio medicine, bio cosmeticsbio medicine, bio cosmetics
New Commerce and trade: Food chain, processing, value New Commerce and trade: Food chain, processing, value additionaddition
Regional cooperation in pest management, technology Regional cooperation in pest management, technology generation, adoption, human resource developmentgeneration, adoption, human resource development
Green Revolution to Gene Revolution
Rate of Gain in Ag. Productivity is Declining
Developing countries
World Developed countries
0
1
2
3
Per
cen
tag
e in
crea
se p
er y
ear
1967–19821982–1994
1995–2020
Why Transgenics ?
Why Transgenics?
• More food• Better quality food
• Safer food• Healthier foods• Designer foods
Why Transgenics ?
Microbes are the Factory of Metabolic Products
• Amino acids• Nucleotides• Vitamins• Solvents• Organic acids
Hypocholesterolemic agents Enzyme inhibitors Immunosuppressants
Biopesticides. MicroherbicidesPlant growth promoters and disease
suppressorBiocontrol agents Biofertilizers
Millions tons are produced each year with a total
multibilliondollar market
Markets of over 50 billion
dollars per year.
Markets of over 700 billion
dollars per year.
CA Systems: Rely on Multi-Disciplinary Efforts
Good CA-based Implements
(Ag Engineering)
Efficient Genotypes Efficient Genotypes (Breeding/Physiology/Protection)(Breeding/Physiology/Protection)
Good Crop Management Good Crop Management
(Agronomy/Soils)(Agronomy/Soils)
Profitable Profitable CA based CA based
technologies technologies that Farmers can that Farmers can
Adopt and UseAdopt and Use
• Hybrid culture in Agriculture• Transgenic culture in Agriculture• Water productivity enhancement and
multiple use of water• Input use efficiency enhancement• Increasing precision in agriculture• Enhanced protected cultivation• Biosensors, Biofuels, Biomolecules,
Biofortification, Biosafety, Biosecurity, Bioremediation, Biofertilization
• IT-based decision support systems for technology transfer
• Processing, storage and loss reduction• Capacity building
Generic areas for priority attention
• Making land and water resources development and utilization economically viable
• Enforcing environmental laws to control water pollution, land degradation and erosion
• Providing adequate public funds for conducting frontier research
• Mass movement and large-scale people’s participation in development, supply and utilization of water and land resources at all levels
Generic areas for priority attention contd..
Enhance investment in irrigation infrastructure, and efficient water use technologies.
Develop policy framework for greater adoption of scientific pricing policies for water, land, energy, and other resources.
Consider financial incentives for improved land management, e.g. resource conservation/ enhancement (water, carbon).
Consider incentives to industry and farmers for reducing emissions such as for neem coated urea
Explore international partnerships for joint research and technology development
Generic areas for priority attention contd..
Thanks