AHDB milk forecasting forum
AHDB Market Intelligence
https://ahdb.org.uk/dairy-markets
11th February 2020
Contents
• Latest position
• Herd size
• Milk yields
• Milk forecast
• Compositional quality
• Further information
Latest GB milk production• Dec-19 forecast put
2019/20 production at 12.58bn litres (+0.6% year-on-year)
• Production in line with forecast through to end December
• Lack of production growth in January and currently 2% down on forecast
• Concern over ground conditions and ability to turn cows out in the spring
Herd size
Inseminations
• Continual move from dairy to
beef over last four years
• Continual increase in level of
sexed semen (sorted) which
is helping to offset some of
the decrease in use of dairy
semen
• Notable increase in use of
sorted semen in the last year
• Expectation that sorted will
increase further in bid to
reduce unwanted bull calves
Inseminations - impact on dairy calf numbers
• Year-on-year drop in dairy calf
numbers expected through to
March 2020
• Small uplift in calf numbers
projected in Jun-Sep 2020
• Previously expected 0-6 month
olds in Sep-19 to be 230k.
Actual reported was 227k
• Historically, the actual level of
0-6 months has tended to be
slightly flatter than our
predictions suggest
Inseminations - impact on GB milk production
• Chart shows impact of dairy
inseminations, sexed semen
and net impact compared with
rolling 3 year average
• Negative net impact has been
reducing since mid-2018
• Net impact becomes positive
in early 2022
• Switch to sexed semen
starting to outweigh move to
beef inseminations
• Only impacts youngstock, and
retention rates can reverse
this
Cow numbers & herd ages
• Overall dairy herd down 1.9%
(49k) since October last year
• GB herd age structure continues
to confirm impact from
inseminations
• Biggest drop is in 2-4 year olds,
down 5.3% and equivalent to
90% of the overall decline
• 0-1 year olds still showing slight
drop, down 0.8% on last year
Retention rate• Retention of cows over 6
month period
• Rates continue to be low
compared with historical
averages
• Slight increase in retention
rates from April to July 2019
could be due to improved
weather and feed availability
• However, farmers are
continuing to hold on to fewer
animals, which is having a
negative impact on the overall
dairy herd size
Long–term herd size expectation
• AHDB projection of number of
cows in the GB dairy herd
• Based on predicted youngstock
numbers (from insemination
data) and 3 year average
retention rates
• Expectation that milking herd will
be around 1.72m by Oct 2020,
down 2% year-on-year
• Projection suggests herd will be
at 1.63m by April 2023, down 7%
on Oct 2019 (latest actual)
Herd size summary
• Calf numbers and youngstock are roughly in line with expectations from
insemination data
• Shift in inseminations continues and acceleration in that move expected going
forward
• Retention rates slightly improved on a year ago, and relatively stable at 89-90%
over 6 month period
• Herd size projections show long-term decline continuing, but offset by increasing
milk yields
Milk yields
Weather and ground conditions
• Scotland saw high rainfall in August
• England and Wales were wet from September to November
• December and January have been more in-line with long-term averages
• But grounds are already saturated = impact on turnout
Weather and ground conditions
• Scotland saw high rainfall in August. England and Wales were wet from September to November
• December and January have been more in-line with long-term averages
• But grounds are already saturated = impact on turnout
This slide contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v1.0
Promar Milkminder results
• Concentrate use per cow mostly
down from last season’s highs
• Still mostly above the 5 year
(2014-2018) average
• Significant increase in
concentrate use seen from July
onwards in 2018 due to lack of
forage
• Summer 2019 concentrate use
was lower, as expected
• Autumn concentrate usage still
on par with 2018.
Latest information from AHDB
Promar Milkminder results
• 2019 forage usage either
above of roughly in line with
5 year (2014-2018) average
• Proportion from forage
through the summer much
higher than in 2018, as
expected
• Autumn forage usage more
comparable with 2018.
Latest information from AHDB
National milk yields
• Historically used a 1.5% pa
uplift in yields
• More recently uplift has been
2.3% pa
• Apr & May 2019 yields were
highest of the last 5 years and
above 2.3% pa projection
• Summer and autumn yields
have been in line with a 2.3%
per year yield improvement
Promar milk yield information on AHDB website
Calculated concentrate feed price
• Concentrate prices have
been declining since Feb-19
• Decline likely due to
improved availability
compared to 2018
• Prices have been significantly
above the 5-year average
since Mar-18
Latest information from AHDB
Farm-gate milk prices
• Milk prices have been generally
increasing since May 2019
• Increases driven predominantly
by lift in butterfat and protein
levels
• Projected price based on
relationship between market
prices and farm-gate prices (3
month delay)
• Market forces would suggest
gradual increase in farm-gate
prices through to Apr-20
Latest information from AHDB – farmgate prices
Latest information from AHDB – projected prices
Milk to feed price ratio (MFPR)• MFPR improved through Jun-
Nov 2019 but dipped in Dec
• Feed prices have been
gradually declining but are still
above the 5 year average
• Farmgate prices have been
increasing Jun-Nov 2019
• MFPR has spent most of the
last two years below the 5 year
average, putting pressure on
farm margins
Latest information from AHDB
Milk yield summary
• Increase in milk production has come from yield per cow
• National average yield has been in line with the adjusted 3 year average yield using a
2.3% per year uplift
• Expectation was for less of a push on yields in 2019 compared to 2018, as better forage
availability lowered concentrate use
• Apr-Aug saw more forage and less concentrate used, but yields still up – helped by
improved cow condition in part
• Sep-Nov had concentrate use, forage use and yields that were all more in line with the
same period in 2018
• MFP ratio suggests high concentrate feeding still not a good long-term plan financially
Milk forecast
Preliminary 2020-21 Forecast• Preliminary projections for 2020/21
suggest it will be very similar to 2019/20
• Official forecast in March
• Spring-summer 2020 expected to be down on 2019
• No boost to yields from a winter of concentrate feeding as in 2018
• Marginal year-on-year gains expected from Aug 2020 onwards
• Risk that March and April 2020 could be significantly down on forecast e.g. if turnout is delayed due to wet ground
Compositional quality
Compositional quality
• Both butterfat and protein have
been increasing over recent
years
• Trend over last 5 years is:
• Butterfat up 1.2 points per year
• Protein up 1 point per year
• Long term trends in cross-
breeding – impact on milk quality
• Long term trends in calving
patterns – impact on seasonality
of milk quality 3.20
3.25
3.30
3.35
3.40
3.95
4.00
4.05
4.10
4.15
Pro
tein
%
Bu
tte
rfa
t %
UK compositional quality
Butterfat % Protein %
High solids due to high fibre
• The higher average NDF will be promoting the rumen microorganism‘s ability to saturate polyunsaturated fatty acids and so supporting butterfat levels.
• It is therefore likely that butterfat levels will remain elevated throughout the winter, while this season’s silage stocks remain a key component of diets.
Read the story here
Breeding herd impact
• Changing genetics have also
contributed to increasing butterfat
• The average butterfat content of
milk from Holsteins and British
Friesians has increased by 0.05%
and 0.10% respectively between
2014 and 2018.
• There has also been an increase in
the number of crossbred animals
• 0.08% overall uplift from breeds
• 0.07% from genetic improvement
• 0.01% from herd make up
Read the story here
Market information resources:
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