A.Hollingsworth Slide 1 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space...

A.Hollingsworth Slide 1

GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation

Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data – GEMS

Anthony Hollingsworth

ECMWF

With thanks to A.Benedetti, A.Dethof, R.Engelen, J-J.Morcrette,

J.Flemming, M.Razinger, S.Serrar,A.Simmons, M.Suttie



Scope of the Presentation

• Overall Objective: GEMS will exploit current huge investments in satellite data to extend NWP Modelling and Data Assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition global and regional scales

• Provide a whole new range of services for GMES

• Global Deliverables

• Regional Deliverables

• Progress since Spring 2005 start of GEMS

• Schedule for Transition to Operations in 2009

• Sustainability of GEMS: Satellite Provision 2009-2019



GMES: Motivations for GEMS

• TREATY ASSESSMENT & VALIDATION• Conventions (Kyoto, Montreal, LRTAP) and IPCC need best

estimates of sources/ sinks/ transports of atmospheric constituents.

• BETTER OPERATIONAL SERVICES• Improved forecasts: excess deaths in summer 2003

heatwave:- 18K in France, at least 33K in western Europe.

• SCIENCE• GEMS will synthesise all available satellite & in-situ data into

accurate ‘status assessments’, and will meet many needs of the GCOS Implementation Plan



GEMS FAQs

• Fundamental Objective: Extend the modelling and data-assimilation methods of Numerical Weather Prediction to atmospheric composition incl. Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol

• GMES Integrated Project: • 4 years 2005-2009• €12.5M, • 30 Institutes, • 14 Countries

• Web-site www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

• Management– Coordinator A.Hollingsworth(ECMWF) – Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F)– Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D)– Aerosol O.Boucher (UK)– Regional Air Quality V-H.Peuch (F)– Validation H.Eskes (NL) – Global Production System A.Simmons, H.Boettger,

(ECMWF),



Environmental Concerns have triggered $25B for New satellite missions in 2001-2008

N.America Europe / Collabs. Asia /Collabs.

JASON-1TERRA ENVISAT ADEOS-IIAQUA MSG COSMICSSMI/S METOP GPMAURA GOCECALIPSO ADMCLOUDSAT CRYOSAT

OCO SMOSRed: in orbitBlack: Planned GEMS will use all these satellite resources



Organisation of the GEMS Project

GEMS is organised in 6 projects

Validation

ReactiveGases

Greenhouse

Gases

AerosolRegional

Air Quality



(iii) GEMS: a distributed system for operations and research

The GEMS system -Distributed

system for Research and Operations.

-Many Regional Systems

-Many Global CTMs

- A Global Weather system



GEMS Global Deliverables: -Operational System for Atmospheric Composition -Retrospective Analyses

-Operational mapping of CO2 sources/sinks

Global Operational System• By 2009, at ECMWF, an operational global monitoring/ forecast

system for atmospheric composition, combining all remotely sensed and in-situ data to create 3 dimensional global distributions [50km (H), 1km (V), 6 hours] of key atmospheric trace constituents:

• greenhouse gases (initially including CO2, and progressively adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy),

• reactive gases (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species),

• aerosols (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30)• Retrospective Analysis

• Provide a retrospective analysis of all accessible in-situ and remotely sensed data on atmospheric dynamics and composition for the ENVISAT-EOS era (1999-2007)

• Sources, Sinks and Transports • Monthly/ seasonal maps of the sources, sinks and inter-

continental transports, of CO2, O3 and many other trace gases and aerosols, based on in-situ & satellite data



GEMS Regional Deliverables: -Regional Air-Quality Forecasts - Improved services for health

sector- Mapping of regional sources /

deposition

• Regional Air Quality: initial & boundary conditions • Provide initial and boundary conditions for operational regional

air-quality and ‘chemical weather’ forecast systems

• Improved monitoring and forecast services for the health sector

• UV exposure and skin cancer• Heat stress and drought• Acute pollution events• Respiratory and Cardiovascular disease• Future

• Vector borne and zoonotic disease (cf. malaria experience)

• Regional estimation of sources/sinks of CO2, O3, aerosol…



aConsistent detectionby ESA and NASA instruments of CO2 anomalies over N.America during summer 2003,

- in lower troposphere from Schiamachy (left)

- in upper troposphere from AIRS (right)

- probably due to suppression of photosynthesis by the drought

Barkley, Monks & Engelen (to appear, GRL, 2006)

2003

May

June

Jul

Sept



10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

"erv1: Tau550: Sum DD3b: TL159L60 CY30R2_aer01corr"Thursday 4 May 2006 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Friday 5 May 2006 00UTC Surface: **

0.001

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.05

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.5

1

2

3

Courtesy J-J.Morcrette



Ozone Hole 1 Oct 2003 in ECMWF assimilation

a) Ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere assimilation on 1 October 2003;

b) Vertical cross section of ozone partial pressure along 8W in a); the partial pressure of ozone is almost zero at 15km, over a wide area. Sharpness due to MIPAS

c) Comparison of (independent) ozonesonde profile data at Neumayer (70.7S 8.3W) with the assimilated field; the agreement is remarkable.

a

b c

Courtesy: A.Dethof



ECMWF Schedule to operational transition of GEMS

Year 1May 2005 -Aug 2006

• Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. • Acquire data; build web-site

Year 2Aug 2006-Aug 2007

• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners• Provide feedback to data providers

Year 2-2.5Aug 2007-Jan 2008

• Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; • Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience

Year 2.5-3.5Jan 2008- Nov 2008

• Build operational system, & interfaces to partners • Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol

Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008- May 2009

• Final pre-operational trials • Documentation & Scientific papers



Time lines of committed and likely missions2009-2019

Time Lines in 2009-2019 for

committed operational missions

& likely research missions

of importance to GEMS activitiesGreenhouse Gases

Reactive GasesAerosol



Greenhouse Gas Provision

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

NASAEurNOAAJAXA

IASI

DOAS Sounders

GREENHOUSE Gases : Main Satellite Provision 2003-2019

Advanced Sounders

AIRS

ENVISAT (SCIAMACHY) Uncertainty

GOSAT

NPP/ CrIS

NPOESS / CrIS

OCO



Aerosol Provision

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

NASAEurNOAAJAXA

V-IR Imager

V-IR Imager

Uncertainty

NPOESS/ VIIRS

MERIS

AURA (TES, OMI)

APS (Glory)

ParasolPolarimeter

AEROSOLS, Albedo, Ocean Colour, Vegetation: Main Satellite Provision 2003-2019

NPP/ VIIRS

MODIS (Aqua)

MODIS (Terra)



Reactive Gas (UTLS & Air-Quality) Provision

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

NASAEurNOAAJAXA

AURA (TES, OMI)

AURA (TES, OMI)

ENVISAT (MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, GOMOS)

Lower Troposphere

ENVISAT (SCIAMACHY)

NPP/ OMPS (~sbuv+toms)

OMPS-Nadir (Npoess)

GOME (Metop)

REACTIVE Gases (O3, N2O, SO2, CH2O) : Main Satellite Provision 2003-2019

Upr. Trop. -Lower StratUncertainty



Perspectives on GEMS satellite provision 2009-2019

• Sustainability of GEMS products, based on satellite provision 2009-2019• Greenhouse gases (GHG): Given METOP (2006) & 2008/9 OCO launches,

GHG products should be sustainable throughout the period

• Aerosol (AER): Given 2009/10 launch of VIIRS on NOAA’s NPP, AER products will be sustainable throughout the period

• Global Reactive Gases (GRG)• Given launches of METOP (2006) and NPP (2009/10) launches, GRG

Stratospheric Ozone products will be sustainable throughout the period.

• No committed Air-Quality mission beyond ENVISAT & AURA

• Actions for European scientists• Press for European Air-Quality missions: ESA by 2015, EUMETSAT by

2025

• Urge NASA to extend the lifetime of EOS (TERRA, AQUA, AURA) as far as possible – each was launched with 15 years consumables.

• Urge NASA to extend the lifetime of other A-train missions, + GLORY +OCO

• Help US scientists persuade current and future US administrations to fund further NASA and NOAA missions.



ENDthank you for your attention!

www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS



Contents of the Presentation

• Overall Global Objectives

• Specific Objectives

• Progress since Spring 2005 start1. Data issues2. Model3. Assimilation4. First 4D-Var results

• Schedule to operational transition in May 2009

• Review of Satellite Provision 2009-2019



Early results since the May 2005 start

• Data Issues• Increased WMO involvement in Chemical Weather• Data acquisition proceeding well, with considerable cooperation

from the space Agencies (ESA,EUMETSAT, NASA, NOAA)

• Modelling• Generic capability in the model to advect many (~100) species• In-line parametrisations implemented for Greenhouse gases &

Aerosol• Surface fluxes specified climatologically (CO2) & dynamically

(Aerosol)• Year-long test runs with specified meteorology and free-running

chemistry

• 4D-VAR (Four-dimensional variational assimilation)• 3 separate assimilation systems have been built

• First assimilations being assessed



GEMS Member State Participation by Institute and ProjectCountry Greenhou

seGHG

ReactiveGRG

AerosolAER

Production

PRO

RegionalRAQ

Validation

VAL

B BIRA RMIB

Cz CHMI

D MPIBG MPIM, DWD,UB

MPIM,DWD MPIM, FRIUUK

MPIBG

DK DMI DMI DMI

F CNRS, LSCE CNRS, SA,MET.FR

CNRS, LSCE, SA

CNRS, SA MET.FR,INERIS

Fin FMI FMI FMI

Hellas NKUA NKUA

INT ECMWF. JRC ECMWF ECMWF ECMWF

Irl NUIG EPAI NUIG

It ARPA, ISAC

NL KNMI KNMI KNMI

Nor MET.NO

Pol PIEP

UK UKMO ICSTM, UKMO



GEMS: a distributed System for Operational Air Chemistry Monitoring and

Forecasting

Observations

Global Data Assimilation System

Global Chemical-Weather Forecast System

Users of Global Information

Global CTM 1 Regional Data

Assimilation System I

Regional Chemical-Weather Forecast System I

Users of Regional Information

Global CTM N

Regional CTM I

Flow of Products & Information



Flow of Research

Experimentation

GEMS: a distributed System for Research on Air Chemistry Monitoring and

Forecasting

Observations

Global Data Assimilation System

Global Chemical-Weather Forecast System

Researchers on Global Air Chemistry

Global CTM 1 Regional Data

Assimilation System I

Regional Chemical-Weather Forecast System I

Researchers on Regional Air chemistry

Global CTM N

Regional CTM I



Carbon dioxide from AIRS

Tropospheric (clear-sky) CO2 analysis from COCO FP5 project, compared with JAL/MRI measurements

April2003

May2003

August2003

October2003



Comparisons with surface CO2 measurements from NOAA/CMDL network – Seasonal cycle

From model run with meteorological fields corrected every 12 hours, and specified

climatological surface fluxes of CO2



ECMWF model north-south CO2 gradients compared to surface flasks

Comparisons between CMDL surface flasks and the free-running ECMWF model show good agreement for the north-south gradients.

Southern hemisphere model values are slightly too low (missing biomass burning??)

Courtesy R.Engelen & S.Serrar

Jan 2004 Aug2004



GEMS Aerosol <Observation-First guess>

90°S

60°S

30°S

0°

30°N

60°N

90°N

100°W 75°W 50°W 25°W 0° 25°E 50°E 75°E 100°E

-0.2 -0.08 0.04 0.16 0.28 0.4 0.52 0.64 0.76 0.88 1

Analysis departures (obs-model) for MODIS aerosol optical depth at 0.55 microns, 12UTC 1 August 2003

Courtesy A. Benedetti



Analysis departures (obs-model) for AOD at 0.55 microns

Single analysis cycle for 12 UTC 1 August 2003



MODIS Image shows Saharan dust advected north over Europe on 5 May 2006

Courtesy R.Engelen



Review of satellite provision 2009-2019

• Key uncertainties in satellite provisions 2009-2019

• Uncertain implications of cost overruns in NOAA’s NPP/NPOESS program

• NASA’s Earth Observation budget for the next decade is very uncertain

• ESA’s priority is uncertain for chemistry in Earth Explorer and Sentinel Programmes

• Concerns• Greenhouse Gases• Aerosol• Reactive Gases



(i) De-scoped NPP / NPOESS programme

Details of the de-scoped NPP / NPOESS programme as presented by DoD, NOAA, NASA

to the Nunn- McCurdie hearingHouse Science Committee

6 June 2006



Revised NPP/ NPOESS programme 2009-2022 (i)

NPP (Launch not before late-2009, in the PM orbit)

• VIIRS, • CrIS, • ATMS• OMPS (nadir only? ~ SBUV + TOMS))

C-1 (launch 2013 - in PM orbit)• VIIRS • CrIS • ATMS• CERES • OMPS-Nadir • SEM • SARSAT (Search and Rescue Sensor)• ADCS (Argos-like data collection system)

C-2 (launch 2016 - in AM orbit)• VIIRS • Microwave imager/sounder• SARSAT

•Reliance for the mid-AM orbit coverage will be on Metop; •No NPOESS platforms are planned for mid-AM orbit;

•If needed, there remains the option of deploying further DMSPs (i.e. one already built and in storage) in mid-AM orbit instead of the AM orbit



Revised NPP/ NPOESS programme 2009-2022 (ii)

C-3 (launch ~ 2020 - in PM orbit, available no earlier than 2018)• VIIRS• Microwave imager/sounder• CrIS• ATMS• OMPS-Nadir • SEM • SARSAT• ADCS

C-4 (launch currently planned for 2022 - in AM orbit. Available no earlier than 2020)

• VIIRS • Microwave imager/sounder• SARSAT



Status of the ‘orphaned’ NPOESS Secondary Instruments for Climate, Oceanography……

• CMIS: The current work on the instrument is "terminated“.• ATMS will be the microwave sounder on C-1. • There will be a process of solicitation for a "less capable" microwave

imager/sounder available for C-2 and beyond. It is unclear what the main differences will be between this "replacement" instrument and CMIS.

• The new version will likely not have the capability for soil moisture observations.

• Reliance will be on Metop and DMSP for the near- to medium-term for ocean wind-speed and direction.

• APS: Reliance for aerosol observations for the medium-term will be with Glory (launch approx. 2008.) A mitigation strategy for beyond Glory is yet to be developed.

• TSIS: Reliance for solar irradiance for the medium-term will be with Glory (launch approx. 2008.) A mitigation strategy for this observation beyond Glory is yet to be developed.

• OMPS-Limb: Will not be flown. No mitigation plan mentioned. (OMPS-Nadir *is* still included - in the PM orbit.)

• ERBS: In place of ERBS, the CERES instrument (from EOS?) will fly on C-1. No certain plan for after that (so not listed on anything but C-1 above.)

• SESS: Instead of SESS, the SEM instrument (from POES?) will be used, and will fly on the PM orbit, starting with C-1.

• Radar Altimeter : No altimeter will be flown on NPOESS. There will be the reliance on future Navy mission for altimetry. No clear plan yet.



Accommodation of the ‘orphaned’ NPOESS Secondary Instruments for Climate,

Oceanography……•

The NPOESS bus will have the capability (i.e. physical space) for the ‘secondary sensors’

• (APS, TSIS, OMPS-Limb, ERBS, SESS, Altimeter).

• The NPOESS program ‘will plan and fund for integration’ of the instruments within the NPOESS program, but only if the instruments are provided from "outside the program" (i.e. some other agency or international partner pays for the instrument.)

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A.Hollingsworth Slide 1 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space...

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