39
‘How do we know and make sure estuaries and seas are healthy?’ Mike Elliott Institute of Estuarine & Coastal Studies, University of Hull, U.K. http://www.hull.ac.uk/iecs
‘How do we know and make sure
estuaries and seas are healthy?’
Mike Elliott
Institute of Estuarine & Coastal Studies, University of Hull, U.K.
http://www.hull.ac.uk/iecs
Pressures, Valuing, Valuation and Management
• Paradigm 7: Estuaries have more human-induced pressures than
other systems and these include both exogenic unmanaged
pressures and endogenic managed pressures. Consequently their
management has to not only accommodate the causes and
consequences of pressures within the system but, more than other
ecosystems, they need to respond to the consequences of external
natural and anthropogenic influences.
Challenges for TW management:
• Where are the problems?
• What changes do they cause?
• What is the impact of these on ecosystem structure and functioning?
• What are the repercussions for ecosystem valuation based on economy-
ecology interactions?
• What are the future environmental changes and economic futures?
• What governance framework is there, what do stakeholders need?
• What can we do about the problems?
• Where are the risks and how to address them now and in the future?
• What are the governance successes, failures and implications?
• How ‘good’ is the decision-making?
Socio-ecological science & tools - Integrating Concepts:
Physico-chemical structure / stock
Physico-chemical processes / functioning
Ecological structure / stocks
Ecological processes / functioning
Individual (use & non-use) values
Total Economic
Value
Stock of natural capital - Natural carrying capacity
Shared (monetary & non-monetary)
Natural environmental system & Total Ecological Value
Ecological capital
Total Social Value
[ME/JPA/DB (UoH) & RKT (UEA) Coastal zone ecosystem services HG v9]
Physico-chemical capital
Socio-Econo-Techno System measured as TSSV (Total Societal & System Value) & Socio-economic carrying capacity
Intermediate ecosystem services
Final ecosystem services
Complementary assets (human capital – population expending
energy, time, money, skills)
Ecosystem goods Societal benefits
DPSIR modelling framework
(Also * DPSWR, DPSEEAC)
Drivers (D):The human activities
responsible
State Change (S):The change in background
status
Impact (I):The changes to the
system
Response (R):The 'human' responsePressures (P):
The causes of the problem(s)
EnvironmentBoundary
System
Natural Change
- Climate Change- Natural variability
- ...
*
Drivers
Pressures
State change
Welfare
Response;
Drivers
Pressures
State change
Exposure
Effects
Action
Context
VECTORS of Change – From Drivers through Impacts to Policy Responses - Examples
Driver Pressure State Change Impact Response
Increasing
urbanisation,
agriculture and
industrialisation
Changes in
temperature regimes
and weather patterns
(storminess)
Climate change and related impacts (natural and anthropogenic;
effects on structure and functioning and on Ecosystem Services)
Local adaptation,
compensation; policy,
economic & legal
mechanisms
Increased CO2 and
decreased pH
Ocean acidification Reduced ecosystem services,
ability for waste removal
Global agreements
Diffuse and point
source land-based
pollution
Polluted components; HAB
formation
Environmental and food
quality reduction, reduced ES
Diffuse and point-
source discharge
controls
Space removal Loss of carrying capacity Loss (& gain) of ecosystem
services
Planning controls,
MSP
Demand for food Capture fisheries Changes to local populations,
spawning sustainability, by-catch
and habitat damage
Stock viability, ecosystem
services reduction
Economic and legal
instruments
Aquaculture Changes to local ecology Ecosystem services (+ and -)
Maritime transport
(demand for
movement of
goods, etc)
AIS introduction,
infrastructure
demands, pollution,
dredging
Community change, habitat
alteration
Pest introduction, invasive and
nuisance species; effects on
ecosystem services
Introduction of new
ballast water
technologies and
practices
Energy demands Infrastructure
demands
Habitat loss and gain,
energy/hydrodynamic change
Effects on ecosystem services
(+ and -)
Marine spatial
planning, economic
and legislative
constraints
Tourism &
recreation
demands
Loss of natural habitats,
reduction in resilience
Planning controls,
coastal spatial
planning
Total societal
demands
Interactions between
multiple users &
sectors
Cumulative effects on natural
structure and functioning
Effects on ecosystem services Changes in policy
Aim of
Management
Plan
P
S
D
I
R
PS
DI
R
P
S
D
I
R
P
SD
IR
P
S
D
I
R
Environment
Boundary
System
Natural
ChangeNatural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
I
II
IIIIV
...N
ExUP
ExUP
ExUP
EnMP
EnMP
Example I: Commercial fisheries (DPSIR I), recreational fishing (DPSIR II)...
Aim of
Management
Plan
P
S
D
I
R
PS
DI
R
P
S
D
I
R
P
SD
IR
P
S
D
I
R
Environment
Boundary
System
Natural
ChangeNatural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
I
II
IIIIV
...N
• Bylaws through NESFC to allow taking of fish,
shrimps and shellfish.
• Historical fisheries within the estuary and near-
coast and deepwater commercial fisheries.
• Historical eel-fishery in estuary and
licensing/conservation measures for migratory
salmonids.
• Extensive recreational fishing off seawalls and
at Spurn Point.
• Samphire collection at outer saltmarsh areas
Aim of
Management
Plan
P
S
D
I
R
PS
DI
R
P
S
D
I
R
P
SD
IR
P
S
D
I
R
Environment
Boundary
System
Natural
ChangeNatural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
I
II
IIIIV
...N
Aim of
Management
Plan
P
S
D
I
R
PS
DI
R
P
S
D
I
R
P
SD
IR
P
S
D
I
R
Environment
Boundary
System
Natural
ChangeNatural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
I
II
IIIIV
...N
Aim of
Management
Plan
P
S
D
I
R
PS
DI
R
P
S
D
I
R
P
SD
IR
P
S
D
I
R
Environment
Boundary
System
Natural
ChangeNatural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
I
II
IIIIV
...N
Aim of
Management
Plan
P
S
D
I
R
PS
DI
R
P
S
D
I
R
P
SD
IR
P
S
D
I
R
Environment
Boundary
System
Natural
ChangeNatural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
I
II
IIIIV
...N
Aim of
Management
Plan
P
S
D
I
R
PS
DI
R
P
S
D
I
R
P
SD
IR
P
S
D
I
R
Environment
Boundary
System
Natural
ChangeNatural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
I
II
IIIIV
...N
Aim of
Management
Plan
P
S
D
I
R
PS
DI
R
P
S
D
I
R
P
SD
IR
P
S
D
I
R
Environment
Boundary
System
Natural
ChangeNatural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
Natural
Change
I
II
IIIIV
...N
International
Law, EU
Directives &
National
Implementation
(England)
Site designations (e.g. SSSI)
Marine (water) Environmental
Protection
UWWTD
Bathing Waters
Nitrates
ProposedMSP &
ICM
Urban Waste Water
Treatment Regs
Sensitive area
Bathing beaches
Bathing Water Regs
Nitrate Vulnerable
Zones
Nitrate Pollution Prevention Regs
Good Chemical Status & Good
Ecological Status
Marine spatial planning &
coastal zone management
Pollution Prevention & Control Regs
Water Environmental (WFD) Regs
Licences, Consents &
Authorisations
Flood Risk & Hazard
Maps
Multimetric Indices
Programme of measures, qualitative descriptors,
ecosystem-based management approach, MPAs
Sea Fish Regulation
Act Sea Fisheries (Shellfish) Act
Salmon & Freshwater
Fisheries Act
?
Implementation method
Enabling Legislation
Protection Afforded
EC Directive or Strategy
(*) In 2013 the WFD replaced the Dangerous Sub. Dir.; Freshwater Fish Dir.; Shellfish Waters Dir. & Groundwater Dir.
Marine Strategy
Regs
Energy Act
?
International Law or Commitments
International Bodies &
Conventions
Byelaws, Orders, gear and catch
restrictions
Sea Fish (Conservation) Act as amended
by the Sea
Fisheries (Wildlife Conservation) Act
Sustainable fisheries & safeguarding the marine environment
Renewable Energy
Renewables targets for
2020
Policy & Targets
UN CONV. on BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY
UNCLOS
MARPOLSafer shipping
navigation, pollution control and operation
Various EU Regs to control
shipping & pollution from
ships
RAMSAR CONV.
BERN CONV.
BONNCONV.
Endangered species
protection
Control of Trade in Endangered
Species (COTES) Regs
Enforcement
IPPC
Strategic Environmental Assessments to include transboundary effects
Environmental Assessment Regs
Licences, Consents &
Authorisations
Marine projects are subject to Environmental Impact
Assessment
Town & Country Planning (EIA)
Regs
Marine Works (EIA)
Harbour Works (EIA) Regs
Waste Hierarchy &
Good Practice
Waste Regs
Environmental Standards
Waste FD
LONDON CONV. &
PROTOCOL
KEY
OSPAR, HELCOM,
UNEP-MAP, BUCHAREST
Reg. Seas Conv
Marine Notices -shipping, guidance
& information
BALLAST WATER CONV.
Prevention, management &
control of harmful aquatic organisms
& alien species
Basic Fish Regs
CFP
ICES
Favourable Conservation
Status
EU Strategy on
Invasive Alien Sp.
ProposedIAS Reg
Sets maximum acceptable
levels
Contaminants in Food Regs
Safe consumption
of fish & shellfish
Contaminants in Food Reg
WFD (*)
Env Liability
Prevention & remedy of
env. damage
Env. Damage (P&R) Regs
Polluter pays principle & remedial measures
FRMD
Flood Risk Assessment
Flood Risk Regs
Flood & Water Management Act
Flood & Coastal Erosion Risk Management
River Basin Management Plans, Heavily Modified Water
Bodies & Artificial Water Bodies
MSFD
Various Regs to control
CITES fauna & flora
CITESHabitats & Species
Natura 2000 sites (SAC/SPA)
Habitat & Species
Protection
Biodiversity & Species
Action Plans
Conservation of Habitats
and Species Regs
Offshore Marine
Conservation Regs
Reg 35 advice, Article 17 condition monitoring, Appropriate
Assessments (AA), Habitat Regulations Assessment (HRA) &
Likely Significant Effect (LSE)
Licences, Consents &
Authorisations
Marine planning
Conservation / Biodiversity
protection (MCZ)
Management Plans &
Schemes
Coastal Recreation
Licences
Licences, Consents &
Authorisations
Licences, Consents &
Authorisations
H1 Method
UN FRAMEWORK CONV. ON CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC)
KYOTO PROTOCOL
Harbours Act
Revision and Empowerment
Orders. Conservation duties on ports
Local Harbour Acts
Harbour & Works Licences
Merchant Shipping Regs
Licences, Consents &
Authorisations
ESPOO CONV.
SEA
Applications for Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects
(NSIPs) / Marine Licences
Planning Act (as amended)
Infrastructure Planning (EIA)
Regs
IMO
INT. CONV. ON SALVAGE
Marine archaeology
Protection of marine archaeology
National Heritage Act
Protection of Wrecks Act
Merchant Shipping Regs
Electricity Act
Climate Change Act
Conserving wider biodiversity
Ancient Monuments & Archaeological Areas
EIA
Licences, Consents &
Authorisations
Wild Birds
EU Biodiversity
Strategy
Wildlife & Countryside Act (as amended)
NERC Act
EU Integrated Maritime Policy
Marine & Coastal
Access Act
Good Environmental
Status
Site designations
(MPAs e.g. SAC / SPA)
The ecosystem-based approach
‘A comprehensive integrated management of human activities based on the best
available scientific knowledge about the ecosystem and its dynamics, in order to identify
and take action on influences which are critical to the health of the marine ecosystems,
thereby achieving sustainable use of ecosystem goods and services and maintenance of
ecosystem integrity.’
The Qualitative Descriptors within the Marine Strategy Framework Directive
Biodiversity Fishing Foodwebs
Seafloor integrity
Hydrography Pollution Litter
The Marine Strategy Framework Directive
2. No alien
species
4. Protect trophic and
reproductive
functioning
3. Protect
commercial species
Pressures 2:
Physical & biological
extraction (water,
space, substrata,
fisheries)
11 Prevent harm from
energy inputs, including
noise
10. Prevent harm
from marine litter
6. Protect hydro-
sediment functioning for
the benthos
8. Stop contamination
becoming pollution stricto
sensu
Pressure 1: Physical,
chemical & biological
inputs
Physical control of
the ecological
system
5. Minimise eutrophication and
its undesirable effects
9. Stop contamination
harming consumers
7. Protect
hydrographical regime
1. Biological
diversity
maintained
Pressures 1 & 2 are ‘endogenic
(regionally) managed pressures’
onto which are superimposed
‘exogenic unmanaged pressures’
(e.g. climate change); for the latter
the consequences rather than the
causes are managed.
Physical control
Pressures on the system
Pressure descriptors
Biological descriptors
Hydrological descriptors
Climate change
Ecological Status (WFD)
Reference Variation
High None or small
Good Slight
Moderate Moderate
Poor Important
Strong Bad
Environmental Status (MSFD)
Good
Not Good
Comparison of the WFD and MSFD
Unhealthy systems?
Medical ( *1 ) – • Diagnosis • Prognosis • Treatment • Recovery
Prevention (*1 Steevens et al 2001 - Human Ecol. Risk Ass.)
Environmental – • Assessment (*2)
• Prediction • Remediation/Creation/
Restoration • Prevention
(* 2 using extension of symptoms for the diagnosis of ecosystem pathology)
Definitions of degradation and recovery:
‘Degradation - the reduction and removal of self-
sustaining ecological functioning and of carrying
capacity (manifest as poorer ecosystem services)
showing an ecological structure and functioning
(and reduced fitness for survival at one or more
levels of biological organisation) reflecting
disturbed conditions and an ultimate loss of
societal benefits’;
‘Recovery - the attainment of self-sustaining
ecological functioning and carrying capacity (as the
maintenance and delivery of ecosystem services)
with appropriate ecological structure at population
and community level reflecting undisturbed
conditions and a restoration of societal benefits’.
INCREASING ECOSYSTEM QUALITY
(Structure x Functioning)
DEGRADATION
Enhancement
Mitigation
Recovery
Rehabilitation
Restoration
Replacement
Original Ecosystem Improved-Habitat New Ecosystem
Active Process Passive Process
Degraded Ecosystem
(with Mitigation)
Degraded Ecosystem
(without Mitigation)
Habitat Creation
Compensation
Functioning
What should there
be (status)?
Ecological & economic goods
& services
Ecosystem
Approach
& why (habitat needs)?
What is lost (reduced
carrying capacity)?
No
Pro
du
ce
Ma
na
ge
me
nt P
lan
!
Can it be
recovered?
HMWB
(hydromorphology)
Yes
Recreate
habitats
Economic justification
(xGEcS)
Report
Compensate the
system
Temporary
habitat loss
Water quality
barrier
Remedial action -
pollution control
Restore habitat
Measure functioning
(need indices of change)
Regain carrying
capacity
Permanent habitat loss
Biological change
changes in cells
changes in organisms
changes in populations
changes in
communities
changes in
ecosystems
Biological change
changes in cells
changes in organisms
changes in populations
changes in
communities
changes in
ecosystems
Speed of
response
Inherent
variability
Ease of
detection
of effect
Complexity
of system
Specificity
of cause
Confidence
in methods?
XENOBIOTIC
EXPOSUREExternal
Site of
damage
Morphological
change
Morphological
anomalies
Entry of parasites
and pathogens
Life history
stage
Internal Gills
Mortality
Stomach
Liver
Change to
behaviour
Avoidance
Ecological
Genetic
Changes in ecological
population structure
Effects on
condition
Growth
Effects on
Survivability
Marketability
Immunological
response
SOCIO-
ECONOMICS
Changes in
Community Structure
EFFECT ON
YIELD
Uptake
Genetic
damage
Genotypic
Adaption
Change in genetic
population
structure
Decreased
fecundity
Poorer
condition
Decreased
growth
Increased
respiration
Physiological
response
Non-
Adaption
Biochemical
response
Adaption
Nervous system
damage
Hormonal
Detoxification
Anatomy
Marketability
Storage
Reproduction
Passage to
offspring
Storage
breakdown
Bioaccumulation
Gonad storage
Excretion
Liver
tumours
Liver/ somatic
index
Survival
Somatic
index
Energetics &
scope for growth
*
*
Figure 10.4 Pollution effects in fishes – conceptual model (Elliott & Hemingway, 2002; also Elliott et al 2003; Lawrence & Hemingway 2003 - XENOFISH)
Science & Types of Monitoring: • Surveillance monitoring
• Condition monitoring
• Operational monitoring
• Compliance monitoring
• Check monitoring
• Self-monitoring
• Toxicity testing
• Investigative monitoring
• Diagnostic monitoring
• Feedback monitoring
(Elliott, Mar Poll Bull, 2011; See also Elliott &
de Jonge (1996) The need for monitoring the
monitors and their monitoring. Mar. Poll. Bull.
32(3): 428-9)
Ecosystem health assessment (or monitoring)
programme:
1. Analysis of main processes and structural
characteristics of ecosystem;
2. Identification of known or potential stressors;
3. Development of hypotheses about how those
stressors may affect each ecosystem;
4. Identification of measures of environmental quality
and ecosystem health to test hypotheses.
Proactive/A priori assessment:
• EIA (process) linked to outcome (ES) (Directive, planning permission)
• Appropriate Assessment (linked to HSD)
• Status and pressures Monitoring (linked to WFD)
• Cumulative Impact Assessment
• Strategic Environmental Assessment - linked to Marine Spatial Planning
• H1/EpiSuite - linked to complex effluents, IPPC authorisation (IPPC Directive)
• Data-base toxicology assessment (linked to licence creation, assess re. ability to accumulate, be persistence, magnify, be toxic) (but limitations cf. synergy/antagonism) (see Gray & Elliott 2009)
Risk Analysis comprises:
• Hazard Identification: involves specifying the adverse
event, which is of concern.
• Risk Assessment: takes into account the probability (the
actual likelihood and not just the possibility) of the hazard
occurring, the consequences of that hazard occurring, and
the degree of uncertainty involved.
• Risk Management: involves identifying and implementing
the best option for reducing or eliminating the likelihood of
the hazard occurring.
• Risk Communication: implies the open exchange of
explanatory information and opinions that leads to better
understanding and decisions.
Hazard leading to Risk (depending on assets)
A) Surface hydrological hazards
B) Surface physiographic removal by natural processes - chronic/long-term
C) Surface physiographic removal by human actions - chronic/long-term
D) Surface physiographic removal - acute/short-term
E) Climatological hazards - acute/short term
F) Climatological hazards - chronic/long term
G) Tectonic hazards - acute/short term
H) Tectonic hazards - chronic/ long term
I) Anthropogenic microbial biohazards
J) Anthropogenic macrobial biohazards
K) Anthropogenic introduced technological hazards
L) Anthropogenic extractive technological hazards
M) Anthropogenic acute chemical hazards
N) Anthropogenic chronic chemical hazards
Hazard & Risk Typology:
Attributes for the diagnosis of ecosystem pathology: = 7 indicators for general application:
• primary production
• nutrients (fate & effects)
• species diversity (abiotic areas)
• community instability (biotic composition)
• size and biomass spectrum
• disease/anomaly prevalence
• contaminant uptake and response
Selection Criteria for Indicators of Ecosystem Response:
• high signal to noise ratio
• rapid response
• reliability/specificity of response
• ease/economy of monitoring
• relevance to end-point
• monitoring feedback to regulation
+
• general applicability
• backed-up by good science
Types of Indicators:
• structure vs. functioning
• spatial vs. temporal
• taxonomic vs. non-taxonomic
• bottom-up causes vs. top down responses
Basis - TraC Footprints and Trajectories
• HA1 The footprint of an impact due to an anthropogenic stressor has an extent and
magnitude proportional to the intensity of the stressors and the sensitivity of the
receiving environment.
• HA2 The determination of effect is dependent on the complexity and variability of
the component or habitat being influenced by the stressor such that
environmentally or ecologically variable systems require a greater stressor in order
to manifest a change.
• HA3 The speed of recovery from the effects of the stressor is dependent on the
turnover rate of the ecological components being affected by the stressors and the
timing of the removal of the action of the stressor.
• In the European context Article 1(3) of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive
(MSFD) (EC 2008) states that:
‘Marine strategies shall apply an ecosystem-based approach to the
management of human activities, ensuring that the collective pressure of such
activities is kept within levels compatible with the achievement of good
environmental status and that the capacity of marine ecosystems to respond to
human-induced changes is not compromised, while enabling the sustainable
use of marine goods and services by present and future generations’.
Resistance
(amount of pressure that can
be applied without major
deterioration in status)
Inherent variability and ability to
change without collapse ( due to
resistance)
Pressure
increasing hysteresis
(type I) Amount system is
disturbed (deterioration
in status)
May be zero
Resilience
(b) (a)
hysteresis (type II)
Pressure
decreasing
System
status (*)
Pressure
Key:
(*) relative to a defined metric of structure or function
(a) total resilience
(b) partial resilience
Integrated Environmental Assessments
e.g.
community health
(sea-bed quality as shown by benthic analyses);
individual health
(as shown by invertebrate bioassay, e.g. amphipod
burrowing bioassay);
environmental (abiotic component)
degree of contamination
(concentration of persistent chemicals in
sediments)
Gaia outfall –
Biotic data
(Quintino etal
2003)
Example: changes in environmental chemical determinands (Adapted from de
Quintino et al., 2001).
Corophium multisetosum
Sediment total bioassay
Acute assay – LC50
Chronic assay – EC50
(from Quintino etal 2003)
Example: changes in sedimentary quality using triad approach (high values
against reference values for the triad components (Adapted from Quintino et al.,
2001).
Aim (economic &
ecological goods &
services)
Set indicators (birds/fishes;
tonnage/ wealth creation, quality
of life/non-infraction) Perform monitoring (surveillance,
condition, compliance,
investigative)
Measure status (EII,
habitat mapping)
Action required (defined in
advance)
Set objectives
(ecological,
economic, societal,
legislative)
Fulfil ‘The Ecosystem
Approach’
Action not required
To be successful, management measures or responses to
changes resulting from human activities should be:
The 10 tenets: From Philosophy to Tool:
• Ecologically sustainable
• Technologically feasible
• Economically viable
• Socially desirable/tolerable
• Legally permissible
• Administratively achievable
• Politically expedient
• Ethically defensible (morally
correct)
• Culturally inclusive
• Effectively communicable
Marine management
tools needed to cover
all of these.
Figure 1: considerations in holistic & adaptive environmental management
(red arrows denote linkages between topics; black arrows denote direction of influence)
Extractors (D, P) (econ., technol.)
Inputters (D, P) (econ., technol.)
Regulators (R) (leg., admin.)
Affectees (I) (soc., ethic., cult.)
Influencers (I) (polit.)
Beneficiaries (I) (soc., ethic, cult.)
Horizontal Integration across stakeholders (refer to DPSIR and 10 tenets)
.... Ecosystem Services & deliver ..... (I(W))
who raise awareness of ...... (comm.)
....Societal Benefits for the ...
uses/users providing .../affecting .... .... who control the ...
…. fundamental processes (S) (ecol.) to create … (D+P) + R ≠ S + I
e.g. Conflict Res., 10 tenets, PPP, PP, EIA, CBA, MCA, LPI
Indicators + monitoring, e.g. EII
Maintaining, protecting and enhancing nature & .... (S) (ecol.)
The Ecosystem Approach
(b) localised human demands (endogenic managed pressures)
(a) wider pressures, e.g. climate change (exogenic unmanaged pressures)
Vertical Integration of governance across geopolitical levels
global
ecoregion
regional
national
local
Source of problems (activity-pressure-impact chain) which require ....
..... Risk assessment methods & response
to ensure no impact on .....
A premise – “changing systems are not a problem for the
ecology as it will adjust to any new situation and
create a new equilibrium, they are only a problem
for society, i.e. we might not be able to obtain the
societal benefits from ecosystem services that we
wish to and we may not like the new ecology but
eventually we will have to accept it”
The challenge - What do we mean by environmental health, how
do we measure it and how do we communicate
that to a non-specialist audience, how does this
relate to current national and European
legislation and policy and what are the
repercussions of this for monitoring?
