A.I.A Genie in the Bottle?
Thomas HofmannInstitute for Machine Learning, ETH Zürich
1 What is A.I.?
What is Intelligence?
Intelligence is the ability
to understand or to make sense
and to act accordingly.
More than 4B years start-up time2.5M years from Homo to present day man
One ultimate goal: intelligence
25 years of education (~40B p.a. in CH)Ongoing lifelong learning
One ultimate goal: intelligence
Machine intelligenceA topos of human imagination
Automaton vs. Living Being
Karl Gottlieb von WindischInanimate Reason (1784)
Maschinenmensch, Metropolis (1927)
AvaEx Machina (2015)
Hal, 2001 (1968)
DataStar Trek (1994)
Very Brief History of A.I.
1950
Theory & Reflection
Berkeley Turing Samuel
1960 1970 1980 1990 20102000
Early“Programs”
Minsky
Symbolic AILogic
ExpertSystems
Neural Networks
Simon Hinton
Machine Learning
Vapnik LeCun
DeepLearning
Intellectual Hope Niche SolutionsDisappointment Commercialization Explosion
2017
Challenge #1
A.I. will not stop at the human level
Challenge #2
A.I. may not (just) mimic human skills.
Challenge #3
A.I. will be a networked intelligence
2Perception
Games of Strategy
How to noblemen display their intelligence?
Man vs. Machine 0 : 1
IBM’s Deep Blue vs. Garry Kasparov, 1997
Computational power480 chess chips
Brute force search: 200M positions per second
Man vs. Machine 0 : 2
0 : 2
Lee Se-dol vs. AlphaGo, March 2017Ke Jie vs. AlphaGo, May 2017
Game of Go not amenable to brute force search (10170 pos.)
Pattern recognition to evaluate positions + self-play for training
From Stones to Pixels
Machines that See
Fortu
ne, 2
8-Se
p 20
16
Classification error
2011 = 26%
2016 = 3%PersonCar
MotorcycleHelmet
Autonomy by PerceptionSelf-driving cars
Waymo (~70B$ Morgan-Stanley)
Mobileye → Intel 15B$ We are excited to announce that, as of today, allTesla vehicles produced in our factory will have thehardware needed for full self-driving capability at asafety level substantially greater than that of ahuman driver.
Tesla (~65B$)
Autonomy by Perception
daedalean.ai, Zürich14 employees, 2 dogs
Self-flying ‘cars’
One hundred years ago, urban transport went underground, now we have the technological wherewithal to go above ground.
Tom Enders, CEO
Airbus (~75B$)
Lilium, Munich (90M$, Series B)
Kitty Hawk, @Larry Page
Autonomy by Perception
Air DeliveryAmazon (470B$): Air Prime
It looks like science fiction, but it's real.
LAWS
lethal autonomous weapons systems
LAWS could violate fundamental principles of human dignity by allowing machines to choose whom to kill- Stuart Russell, UC Berkley, 2015
Human Face RecognitionFace recognition / identification Facebook’s
DeepFace (2015)
Facial expressions
Sexual orientationMichal Kosinski et al (2017)
Super-Human Face Recognition
… per day
see 3,000 million faces remember 3,000 million
… over a lifetime
see 1 million facesremember 3,000
Super-Human Vision
Leaf reading (Friedman et al. 2014)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKXOucXB4a8
Lip reading (LipNet, 2016)
https://youtu.be/fa5QGremQf8?t=32
Inverting Vision
Synthetizing human voice
Synthesizing images Hjelm et al (2017)
3Language
Recurrent neural networks
Human Voice Recognition
How many people do you talk to?
Language & A.I.
Natural Language Processing is the next frontier in A.I.
Yann LeCun, Facebook AI Research, 2015
Philosophy: Language & Thought
The meaning of a word is its use in language. -Wittgenstein, 1953
It is in names that we think. – Hegel, 1817
Man vs. Machine 0 : 3
A
Brad Rutter and Ken Jennings vs. IBM’s Watson in 2011
Jeopardy! Question-Answering
Machine Reading of 200M pages(3000 years of human reading)
Voting schemes – 100s algorithms
EmbeddingsIdea: represent symbols and discrete structures as vectors
Knowledge Graph
Linking text with knowledge representation.
Knowing what is talked about.
Reasoning across billions of documents.
Understanding Sentiment
Automatic sentiment analysis on tweets or reviews.
Machine TranslationApproaching human-level accuracy
4Humans
Understanding Behavior
Recommender Systems
Predicting User Behavior
AdvertisingPlatforms
72.5B$ in 2016
[ logos removed ]
Amazon
Netflix
spotify
Youtube
[ logos removed ]
AdWords
Doubleclick
Facebook Ads
AppNexus
Understanding Behavior
Data Management Platform
Predict user attributes and future behavior
Understanding Behavior
70 likes = friend150 likes = family member
300 likes = spouse
[Youyou et al. 2015]Psychometrics
Big Data + Big Gov = ?
Article and illustrations [removed]
www.wired.co.uk/article/chinese-government-social-credit-score-privacy-invasion
5Outlook
Live & Health
1000
1M
1B
Courtesy Gunnar Rätsch, ETHZ
Deciphering the code of life A.I. for Personalized Health
Fusion across many modalitiesDecision support
Courtesy Gunnar Rätsch, ETHZ
Strategy & Uncertainty
DeepMind Atari bot playing Montezuma's Revenge, 2016
Visual interpretation of Arcade game “scenes”
Understanding of effect of actions, reinforcement learning (deep Q-learning)
Google acquired DeepMind for 660M$ in 2014. Value today – priceless ;-)
Complex Decision MakingEmergency room monitoring
DrugScreening
Administration & Processes
6Reflections
Statistical (& Causal) Models
Statistical Model: dependencies between
observables (data), actions (causal), and outcomes.
Good old dayslinear regression
Today’s complex, Deep models
“perception-like”
10-100Ms of parameters
Interpretability & Trust
Limits of understandability• Mechanism & model complexity • Variability of each instance • Unpredictable environment & interactions
Approaches• Empirical validation• Testing (instead of ‘specification’)• Build-in guarantees, objectives
Norbert W
iener, 1960
[…] we had better be quite sure thatthe purpose put into the machine isthe purpose which we really desireand not merely a colorful imitationof it.