See Disclosure Appendix of this report for important Disclosures and Analyst Certifications
A.I. Conference 2017: The Gift of Sound
and Vision Investment Opportunities from Application to Component
Jay Huang, Ph.D. • Senior Analyst • +852-2918-5746 • [email protected]
David Dai, CFA • Senior Analyst • +852-2918-5704 • [email protected]
Mark Li • Senior Analyst • +852-2918-5752 • [email protected]
October 16, 2017
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 2
Panelists Today
David Dai
Asian Emerging Technologies
Mark Li
Asian Semis & Semicap
Jay Huang
Asian Industrial Technology
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 3
Comps table
Ticker Company Rating* Currency Bernstein TP 10/11/2017 Price
2454.TT MediaTek Inc O TWD 320.0 306.0
3034.TT Novatek Microelectronics Corp M TWD 105.0 114.0
2382.HK Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd O HKD 134.0 127.5
6758.JP Sony Corp O JPY 5600.0 4,100.0
SNE Sony Corp O USD 51.0 36.6
002230.CH iFlytek Co Ltd M CNY 60.0 55.4
6861.JP Keyence Corp O JPY 63000.0 60,350.0
002415.CH Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd O CNY 40.0 34.6
6954.JP FANUC Corp O JPY 31000.0 24,310.0
Note: MXAPJ, MXJP and SPX closed at 544.87, 1005.39 and 2555.24 respectively as of Oct 11, 2017.
* O: Outperform, M: Market-Perform
Source: FactSet, Bernstein estimates. Prices as of Oct 11, 2017.
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 4
Agenda
• Overview - Jay Huang
• A.I. in Vision - Jay Huang
• A.I. in Sound - David Dai
• “Eyes & Ears” - Sensor, Lens, Microphone - David Dai
• “Brain” - Processor - Mark Li
• Conclusion - Mark Li
• Q&A
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 5
We focus on vision and voice as they are probably the most
important applications of A.I.
• As of July 2017, over 60% of the A.I. startups are working on Vision/Voice-related areas.
Source: Venture Scanner and Bernstein analysis
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Speech to Speech Trans
Video Recognition
Context Aware Computing
Gesture Control
Recommendation Engines
Speech Recognition
Smart Robots
Virtual Assistants
Computer Vision Platforms
Computer Vision Apps
Machine Learning Platforms
Natural Language Processing
Machine Learning Applications
Number of A.I. Startups (Total: 1878)
61% of the A.I. startups are Vision/Voice-related
Startups that are related to Vision/Voice
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 6
Sensor (“Eyes & Ears”)
Application
There are investment opportunities in the supply chain
Processor (“Brain”)
Physical World
Data Info
$
Source: Wikimedia Commons, Hikvision, Sunny Optical, Bernstein analysis
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 7
Agenda
• Overview - Jay Huang
• A.I. in Vision - Jay Huang
• A.I. in Sound - David Dai
• “Eyes & Ears” - Sensor, Lens, Microphone - David Dai
• “Brain” - Processor - Mark Li
• Conclusion - Mark Li
• Q&A
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 8
A.I. is driving the next stage of development for the video
surveillance industry and for Hikvision
Source: Bernstein analysis
Device /
Hardware
Surveillance Camera; Alarm; Access Control;
Elevator Control…
Database Information / Data Collection and Storage
Face Recognition
Automatic License Plate Recognition
Outdoor People and Vehicle Tracking
Left and Removed Item Detection
Indoor People Tracking
Crowd Detection…
Analytics
Device /
Hardware
Surveillance Camera; Alarm; Access Control;
Elevator Control…
Database Information / Data Collection and Storage
Device /
Hardware
Surveillance Camera; Alarm; Access Control;
Elevator Control…
Database Information / Data Collection and Storage
Product
Solution
Smart Analytics
Hardware Hardware + VMS (Solutions) Hardware + VMS +Analytics (“Smart” Solutions)
Video
Management
Software
Collects video from cameras and other sources
Records / stores that video to a storage device
Video
Management
Software
Collects video from cameras and other sources
Records / stores that video to a storage device
Face Recognition
Automatic License Plate Recognition
Outdoor People and
Vehicle Tracking
Left and Removed Item Detection
Indoor People Tracking
Crowd Detection…
Analytics
Video
Management
Software
Collects video from cameras and other sources
Records / stores that video to a storage device
Face
Recognition
Automatic License
Plate Recognition
Outdoor People
and Vehicle
Tracking
Left and Removed
Item Detection
Indoor People
Tracking
Crowd Detection…
Analytics
VSaaS
Device /
Hardware
Surveillance Camera; Alarm; Access Control;
Elevator Control…
Database Information / Data Collection and Storage
Video
Management
Software
Collects video from cameras and other sources
Records / stores that video to a storage device
Face
Recognition
Automatic License
Plate Recognition
Outdoor People
and Vehicle
Tracking
Left and Removed
Item Detection
Indoor People
Tracking
Crowd Detection…
Analytics
Video Surveillance as a Service (VSaaS)
Hardware + VMS+ Analytics + Operation Service
Hikvision’s
current stage
from Analog to Network
Key trend
AI
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 9
Two approaches for A.I.: centralized or on the edge - Hikvision is
among the few that can do both
Object extraction and detection
Original Video
Recording
Front-End Data Collection
Object & Event
Analysis
Comparison of object /
behavior to database
Event analysis
Storing data to database
Back-End AI Analysis
Image Signal
Processing (ISP)
Example: Hikvision Traffic Surveillance System
PanoVu(鹰眼)
Blade(刀锋)
Object identification &
labelling
Source: Company; Bernstein analysis
Back-End AI Analysis
Original Video
Recording
Object
Extraction &
Detection
Background modeling/
noise elimination
Object extraction and
detection
Object
Identification &
Labelling
Object characteristics
identification
Object labelling
Preliminary
Event Analysis
Simple behavior
recognition
Preliminary event
analysis
In-Depth
Analysis
Comparison of object/
behavior to database
In-depth event
analysis
Storing data to database
for future use
Front-End AI Processing
Image Signal
Processing
(ISP)
Example: Hikvision Human Analytics Surveillance System
DeepInview-Dual Lens(深眸-双目)
HikFace(脸谱)
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 10
The integrated hardware-software capability is a huge edge of
Hikvision in A.I.
ModelLaunch
TimeFunction Situation Key Specs Chip
Overall View
(全局)2016
Precise capture of
behavior and event4MP resolution
VPU
(Movidius
Myriad 2
Vision)
Dual Lens
(双目)2016
3D real-time analysis
of human
characteristics and
behavior
• 2 * 2MP-resolution cameras
• H.265/ H.264/ MJPEG video
coding
GPU
(NVIDIA
Jetson TX1)
2016Face analysis,
identity confirmation
Entrance & exit,
identity check
• 2MP resolution
• 10.1-inch display
2016• 6-7MP resolution
• H.264/MJPEG video coding
2016 16-channel analysis system
2016Face recognition,
human identification
• Human traffic
(transportation hub,
bank, school...)
• Commercial use
(customer analysis,
payment, attendance
check...)
• 64-channel system
• up to 32 pairs of face 1v1
analysis at the same time
2016
Information
extraction, storage
and search
All types of situation
(estate, school,
finance, city security…)
• 32 Mbps input bandwidth
• 32-channel system
• 1-8TB storage Network Video
Recorder
2015Video structuring
server160-channel 1080P system
2015Vehicle image
structuring server
Analysis of 3 million checkpoint
pictures per day per server
VPU/GPU
Blade
(刀锋)
GPU
Transportation,
security…
People & Identification
Matching
(人证比对)
Front-End
Transportation
(road, airport, highway,
gas station, port, bus
station...)
HikFace
(脸谱)
DeepInmind
(超脑)
Devine Captor
(神捕)
Back-End
Traffic incident
detection
Falcon
(猎鹰)
Large area with intense
human traffic
(transportation hub,
stadium, bank branch,
shopping mall...)
DeepInview
(深眸)
Source: Company; Bernstein analysis
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 11
Besides surveillance, A.I. and vision are also key enabling
technologies for next generation automation
Source: Wiki Commons; Bernstein analysis
Perception (visual input and
math models)
Identification (find the object)
Path planning (determine the
motion to approach
objects)
Grasp planning (determine grasp
position and angle)
Visual servoing (hand-eye
coordination)
A.I. involved
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 12
Agenda
• Overview - Jay Huang
• A.I. in Vision - Jay Huang
• A.I. in Sound - David Dai
• “Eyes & Ears” - Sensor, Lens, Microphone - David Dai
• “Brain” - Processor - Mark Li
• Conclusion - Mark Li
• Q&A
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 13
Voice is an interface
Amazon Echo Google Home iFlytek/JD DingDongApple Homepod Tianmao JinglingX1Harman KardonInvoke
Voice
Input
Siri Lingxi
Source: Wikimedia commons, Twitter, company images with permission
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 14
More importantly, voice is a data collection tool
Structured medical records
Enter Medical Records
With Voice
Patient List
Medical Record
Handwritten medical records
Assisted diagnosis
Healthcare
Speech recognition and natural language processing
Analysis
Unable to analyze
Source: Wikimedia commons, company images with permission
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 15
Analyzing the data collected disrupts industries
Handwritten exam paper and homework
Personalized education
Education
Structured student answers
Scan Paper Text Recognition Score Given
Comments
Handwriting
Recognition
Automatic
Rating
Text recognition and natural language processing
Analysis
Unable to analyze
Source: Wikimedia commons, company images with permission
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 16
The global speech recognition industry grows at 21% CAGR
… but that doesn’t capture all the value from speech recognition companies
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
US
D b
n
Global Speech Recognition Software Industry
Source: MIIT, Research in China, Bernstein estimates and analysis.
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 17
Agenda
• Overview - Jay Huang
• A.I. in Vision - Jay Huang
• A.I. in Sound - David Dai
• “Eyes & Ears” - Sensor, Lens, Microphone - David Dai
• “Brain” - Processor - Mark Li
• Conclusion - Mark Li
• Q&A
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 18
Camera lens
YTOT, 37%
Sunny Optical,
15%
RICOM, 13%
LIDA, 6%
Ev etar, 5%
Union, 4%
PHENIX, 4%
FujiFilm, 2%
Security Camera Lens Market Share by unit (2016)
Largan, 33%
Sunny Optical,
11%Kantatsu, 8%
Sekonix, 7%
Genius, 5%
Kolen, 3%
SEMCO, 2%
Others, 25%
Handset Lens Market Share by unit (2016)
Mobile phones,
78%
Security Camera,
13%
Vehicle, 9%
Lens Application % share by
Rev enue (2017E)
533
1,003
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
US
$ m
n
Security Camera Lens Rev enue
'16-'21E CAGR: 14%
3,218
4,867
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
US
$ m
n
Handset Camera Lens Rev enue
'16-'21E CAGR: 9%
285
768
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
US
$ m
n
Vehicle Camera Lens Rev enue
'16-'21E CAGR: 22%
Source: TSR, Strategy Analytics, Bernstein estimates and analysis
Sunny Optical,
37%
Nidec Sankyo, 15%Fujif ilm,
9%
Hitachi Maxell, 9%
Nidec Copal, 2%
Vehicle Lens Market Share by unit (2016)
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 19
Image Sensors
Mobile Phone,
73%
Vehicle, 6%
Security, 4%
Other, 17%
Image Sensor Application % share by revenue (2017E)
8,307
11,819
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
2015 2016 2017E2018E2019E2020E2021E
US
$ m
n
Handset Camera Image Sensor
Revenues
'16-'21E CAGR: 13%
323
850
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
2015 2016 2017E2018E2019E 2020E2021E
US
$ m
n
Vehicle Camera Image Sensor
Rev enues
'16-'21E CAGR: 21%
412
902
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
US
$ m
n
Security Camera ImageSensor
Rev enue
'16-'21E CAGR: 17%
Source: TSR, Strategy Analytics, Bernstein estimates and analysis
On Semi, 56%
Omniv ision, 19%
PixelPlus, 5%
Sony , 6%
Toshiba, 9%
Vehicle Camera Image Sensor Market Share by revenue (2017E)
Sony , 35%
On Semi, 27%
Omniv ision, 19%
SOI, 10%
PixelPlus, 3%
Security Camera Image Sensor Market Share by revenue (2017E)
Sony , 59%
Samsung, 28%
Omniv ision, 6%
Galaxy Core, 2%
SK Hy nix, 3%
Handset Camera Image Sensor Market Share by revenue (2017E)
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 20
Agenda
• Overview - Jay Huang
• A.I. in Vision - Jay Huang
• A.I. in Sound - David Dai
• “Eyes & Ears” - Sensor, Lens, Microphone - David Dai
• “Brain” - Processor - Mark Li
• Conclusion - Mark Li
• Q&A
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 21
Not all applications have the same requirements
• Voice is much easier to process.
• Hence “smart speaker” is actually “dumb” as most of data, processing and hence
intelligence is in the cloud.
• Voice processors are mostly on legacy nodes such as 28nm or older.
• MediaTek is the leader in “smart speaker” & enjoys revenue growth.
• However the contribution will plateau in ~2 years as Chinese competitors enter the
market.
• Video processing is however much more demanding.
• Currently intelligence is mostly derived in servers.
• Gradually A.I. is emerging in edge devices too but often requires an expensive
dedicated chip.
• NVIDIA and Movidius (now Intel) are the examples of the dedicated chips found in
“smart camera” of surveillance.
• Apple, HiSilicon & Novatek are entering the market with SoCs that are more efficient
in cost & power.
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 22
And not all architectures are the same either
• Cloud/server – training & inference
Edge device – nearly all inference
• Edge device is much more resource-
constrained than the cloud/server.
• Cost
• Power
• Form factor
• Latency
• Etc.
Cost & Power/ Operation
Flexibility
ASIC/SoC
FPGA
GPU
CPU
Source: Bernstein analysis
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 23
GPU, FPGA & ASIC/SoC should have their spaces in A.I.
• CPU is being replaced “accelerator”
• “Accelerator” will be a combination of GPU, FPGA, ASIC/SoC.
• GPU – good for training broadly but for inference selectively
• FPGA – in between
• ASIC/SoC – prevailing arch for inference on edge devices
• IP vendors will expedite the adoption of A.I. in ASIC/SoC
Representative
Company Ideal Market
GPU NVIDIA Training & selective inference
FPGA Xilinx Selective training & selective inference
ASIC/SoC HiSilicon, Apple, Novatek Inference on “edge”
IP CEVA, Cadence, ARM Inference on “edge”
Source: Bernstein analysis
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 24
Agenda
• Overview - Jay Huang
• A.I. in Vision - Jay Huang
• A.I. in Sound - David Dai
• “Eyes & Ears” - Sensor, Lens, Microphone - David Dai
• “Brain” - Processor - Mark Li
• Conclusion - Mark Li
• Q&A
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 25
Investment Opportunities
• Application
• Hikvision (Outperform, TP=CNY40)
• Sensor, Lens & Microphone
• iFlytek (Market-Perform, TP=CNY60)
• Sunny Optical (Outperform, TP=HK$134)
• Sony (Outperform, TP=JPY5600)
• Processor
• MediaTek (Outperform, TP=NT$320)
• Novatek (Market-Perform, TP=NT$105)
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 26
Q & A
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 27
Disclosure Appendix
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 28
Disclosure Appendix - Valuation Methodology
Asian Industrial Technology
We value our Chinese Capital Goods names using the Fair P/B multiple, which we derive from each company's normalized ROE and cost of equity. This
method allows us to understand cyclical companies through the cycle.
We maintain dual A- and H-share ratings when stocks have both categories of shares listed on the relevant exchange. We derive our A-share target prices by
translating the H-share target prices from HKD to RMB. As a general matter, we then assign our rating for A-share stocks by comparing this translated price
to the current A-share price. Thus there will be situations where the H-share and A-share ratings on a related security may differ from one another.
We value Keyence and Cognex using DCF and triangulate with fair EV/IC (based on ROIC). We believe these two methods fit best with the companies' asset
structure with very light invested capital. Both methods allow us to treat operating and non-operating assets separately, therefore properly accounting for the
value of the companies' core operations.
We value FANUC and Hikvision using DCF and triangulate with P/E.
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd
We value Hikvision using DCF and cross check with peer group forward P/E multiples.
Keyence Corp
We value Keyence and Cognex using DCF and cross check with fair EV/IC (based on ROIC). We believe these two methods fit best with the companies'
asset structure with very light invested capital. Both methods allow us to treat operating and non-operating assets separately, therefore properly accounting for
the value of the companies' core operations.
FANUC Corp
We value FANUC using DCF and triangulate with P/E and P/B multiples. We believe DCF better accounts for the long-term value, and allow us to see through
the cycles of FANUC's business. P/B and P/E inform us of FANUC's relative valuation versus global automation peers.
Asian Emerging Technologies
We value companies in our coverage using price to forward earnings. The P/E is determined by historical range, future growth rate, and as informed by our
DCF model.
The exceptions are Sony, for which we use sum-of-the-parts (SOTP), and HTC, for which we use DCF to determine the valuation.
Sony Corp
We value Sony on SOTP by applying forward P/E of its individual segments, and with 15% conglomerate discount. The EPS range used is 2Q18-1Q19, as it is
the NTM range for our one-year target price. For Sony’s portion of Sony Financial Holdings, we use its market value.
Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd
We value Sunny Optical on a forward P/E basis. We use 22x target P/E ratio on 2019 EPS, and discount by 10% to get 2018 target price, as the 3D camera
contribution is not significant until 2019.
IFlytek Co Ltd
We value iFlytek using DCF to reflect the significant long term growth. Our target price is CNY60, which implies 92x 2019 EPS.
Asian Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment
We use Price to NTM tangible book value to value foundries and Price to One-Year Forward Earnings to value design, OSAT & equipment companies.
MediaTek Inc
We use Price to One-Year Forward Earnings as our valuation method for MediaTek as we believe it best captures the earnings growth momentum of a
fabless company and is easier to compare among peers. To determine a relevant multiple, we review the historical forward P/E multiples at the company
level and set our multiple at 15x One-Year Forward Earnings. Note that we exclude the gain from the transaction of selling Autochips to NavInfo as it is a one-
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 29
Disclosure Appendix - Valuation Methodology
off.
Novatek Microelectronics Corp
We use Price to One-Year Forward Earnings as our valuation method for Novatek as we believe it best captures the earnings growth momentum of a fabless
company and is easier to compare among peers. To determine a relevant multiple to apply, we review historical forward P/E multiples at the company level.
Novatek's P/E multiple has been hovering mostly in the range of 9~15x since 2005 and we set our valuation multiple at 11x, below the historical average, to
reflect Novatek's muted growth prospects.
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 30
Disclosure Appendix - Risks
Asian Industrial Technology
Given the importance of retail investors to the A-share markets, A-share listed stocks may be relatively more volatile than their H-share listed counterparts.
Upside or downside risks could come from Chinese government policies as China looks to control the rate of growth of its economy in general, or capital
markets in particular. These policies may manifest in market rules that affect A- and H- shares differently.
The risks to Chinese companies under our coverage are mainly macroeconomic driven. Chinese government policies may also lead to increased or
decreased demand in the various end markets.
The risks to our Global Automation names (FANUC, Keyence and Cognex) are mainly associated with the global macro economy. In addition, there is
currency risk to these names.
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd
Hikvision's core business in China has significant exposure to domestic infrastructure investment, and the risks are associated with China's macro cycles and
relevant government policies. Outside China, there is a certain degree of sensitivity using Chinese surveillance products. From this, political risks arise,
especially in countries like the U.S. For the new businesses in automation and others, the company is still at a very early stage, and demand from certain
segments (e.g. warehouse automation) is also nascent. Our estimates about market growth as well as the market share Hikvision can achieve may lead to
risks to either side.
Keyence Corp
The risks are mainly associated with the global macro economy. Our analysis shows that company's growth correlates with the overall utilization of
manufacturing capacity in the major economies. Fluctuations in utilization may lead to unexpected near term fluctuations in growth rates. A global recession
as severe as that of 2009 may even result in decline in Keyence's revenue. In addition, there is currency risk associated with the exchange rate of JPY.
FANUC Corp
FANUC's end user markets are cyclical in nature. The risks are mainly associated with the global macro economy and currency. Automotive and smartphone
demand and capex cycles are important drivers of FANUC demand. JPY exchange rates have translation impact on topline, and affect FANUC's margins.
Asian Emerging Technologies
Sector risks include the following:
Technology risk. Companies in our sector relies on evolution of technologies in the future. If the future technologies evolve in a faster or slower fashion, it
would present upside or downside risk to our companies.
Macro risk. A weak macro environment would depress consumer IT spending (e.g. smartphones and tablets) and impact our companies, and vice versa.
Product risk. Our companies supply consumer products directly or indirectly. Changes in demand of such specific products would affect the performance of
our companies.
FX risk. Many of our companies sell products priced in a different currency than its reporting currency. Significant moves of the exchange rate would impact
the financials of these companies.
Sony Corp
Downside risks to our price target for Sony include: slower VR adoption in its game consoles; share loss of game console to its key competitors, Microsoft and
Nintendo; lower demand of image sensors in consumer products, especially smartphones; lower demand of consumer electronics, such as cameras, TVs, and
speakers; lower box office of films carried by its studios; and weaker performance Sony Financial Holdings, a public company in which Sony has a majority
holding.
Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd
Downside risks to our price target for Sunny Optical include: lower smartphone OEM shipment, especially from Chinese OEMs; slower dual camera and other
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 31
Disclosure Appendix - Risks
sensing camera penetration in smartphones; slower ADAS adoption in vehicles; and inability to gain market share from competitors.
IFlytek Co Ltd
Upside and downside risks to our price target for iFlytek include: faster or slower adoption of its education products in schools; faster or slower speech
recognition demand in consumer products; shorter or longer time taken to penetrate into newer markets such as healthcare.
Asian Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment
The Asian Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment sector is exposed to general macroeconomic risks which ultimately influence end-market demand
and can positively or negatively affect the entire electronics supply chain. In addition to the effects of macroeconomic factors, the semiconductor industry has
historically been subject to seasonal and cyclical demand fluctuations for its products or services. These industry downturns have been characterized by
diminished product demand, excess manufacturing capacity, subsequent erosion of average selling prices, etc. Any factors affecting the semiconductor
industry can impose an upside or a downside risk to our forecasts. We highlight some important risks below:
FX Risk. Exchange rate fluctuation poses substantial risk to Asian semiconductor companies' revenue and profit. This is because their products and services
are mostly denominated in US dollars but some of their cost components are denominated in NT dollars, Japanese yen or other domestic currencies. A
strong domestic currency and a weakening US dollar will impose pressure on the company's revenue and profitability and hence would affect earnings on the
downside.
Demand Risk. Macroeconomic environment will seriously affect the semiconductor industry as the industry is more volatile and cyclical in general. This risk
mostly manifests itself in a change in end market demand first and then gradually ripples throughout the electronics supply chain and eventually impacts the
upstream players such as foundry, OSAT or fabless companies. This can be either an upside or a downside risk to our forecasts.
Supply Risk. Disruption and imbalance in the electronics supply chain - either on a semiconductor company, on its suppliers/distributors, or on its customers -
will create a chain effect and impact the company's ability to fully utilize its capacity and deliver its financial performance as planned. This risk can be shown
in the raw material supply as it sometimes accounts for a large portion of the manufacturing costs and any supply shortage can lead to reduced shipments or
increased costs.
Technology Risk. Delay or acceleration in the development and commercialization of new technologies will impact the competitive landscape of the
semiconductor industry. For instance, some companies may lose or gain market share; the price premium or discount vs. competitors may narrow or widen.
Competition Risk. Competition, especially any accelerated capacity expansion, will lead to spare capacity in the semiconductor industry. As competitors may
cut price in order to grab demand to fill idle capacity, a company might suffer lower price and margin as a result. On the other hand, if the capacity expansion
from competitors takes place more slowly than expected, the company is likely to enjoy better price and margin, leading to an upside risk to our forecasts and
target price.
Product Risk. Any major delay in the company's new product launches can result in a downside risk to our forecasts. This risk is especially remarkable for IC
design companies as the market window for them is often very narrow. Missing the market window due to product delays can result in much smaller market
share and inferior pricing.
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 32
Disclosure Appendix - Risks
MediaTek Inc
There are a number of downside risks to our MediaTek target price:
(1) Stronger competitive pressure from Qualcomm in 4G market
(2) Competition in 3G market, mostly from Spreadtrum
(3) Weaker smartphone demand globally
(4) Slower diversification beyond smartphone
Novatek Microelectronics Corp
There are a number of risks to our Novatek target price:
(1) Faster/slower share gain in mid-/small-panel driver IC market
(2) Faster/slower ASP erosion in large-panel driver IC
(3) Unexpected entry/exit of competitors from the market
(4) The pace of integration between driver IC & touch controller IC
ASIAN EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, ASIAN SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT, ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY | 33
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12-Month Rating History as of 10/11/2017
Ticker Rating Changes
002230.CH M (RC) 08/28/17 O (IC) 04/25/17
002415.CH O (IC) 04/20/17
2382.HK O (IC) 04/25/17
2454.TT O (RC) 06/06/17 M (RC) 05/04/15
3034.TT M (RC) 08/28/15
6758.JP O (IC) 04/25/17
6861.JP O (IC) 06/06/16
6954.JP O (IC) 09/26/17 O (DC) 06/30/17 O (IC) 03/09/16
SNE O (IC) 04/25/17
Rating Guide: O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, N - Not Rated
Rating Actions: IC - Initiated Coverage, DC - Dropped Coverage, RC - Rating Change
OTHER DISCLOSURES
A price movement of a security which may be temporary will not necessarily trigger a recommendation change. Bernstein will advise as and when coverage of securities commences and ceases.
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