A joint initiative of Australian, State and Territory and New Zealand Governments.
Air Conditioners and Chillers Consultation Regulation Impact Statement
February 2016 Cost Benefit Modelling + Results, by Paul Ryan - EnergyConsult Pty Ltd
Department of Industry, Innovation and Science On behalf of the E3 Committee
Energy Modelling and Cost Benefit
Analysis
• Methodology
• Data and Assumptions
– Key sources and assumptions
– Sales inputs for AU and NZ (if appropriate)
– Changes due to Policy scenarios
• Results
– Stock estimates
– CBA estimates
– For AU and NZ (if appropriate)
Methodology – Basic Approach
• Bottom up engineering model – Approach used as basis for energy end-use modelling nationally,
and internationally – Combined with energy costs, price of efficiency,
government/program costs
• Model attributes used/produced – Inputs: Annual sales, life, efficiency (COP,EER and standby
power), size/capacity, hours of operation, GHG emission factors, energy prices
– Outputs: Energy use by year, Stock installed, Costs and benefits
• Scenarios: attributes are potentially adjustable due to – Regulations, programs or market changes – BAU trends (natural efficiency changes)
• Fundamentally a complex stock model that includes energy characteristics of stock combined with costs and benefits.
Methodology – Key Features
• Energy use is characterised by – up to 6 load points + standby power for each
category, to model the benefits of seasonal efficiency policy - for heating + cooling mode = total of 13 modes calculated for each category
• Autonomous efficiency improvement of 0.5%
• 15 AC categories (split for business and residential), 11 Chiller categories
Data and Assumptions
• Efficiency – Sales weighted EER and COP, Non-operational power
(NOP) where available from GfK or model weighted from registrations database, projected forward post 2014
• Life – Based on survival curve, varies for each product category
• Operating Hours – State/zone average annual hours from ABS HEC (ABS
2012), or estimated for business - divided into load points
• Annual Sales – Surveys of suppliers and interviews, modified from AC RIS
2010. Workshops in 2014 used to refine the initial data
Sales Inputs
Sales – AC Non-ducted: Australia
y = 100721ln(x) + 51002R² = 0.8992
y = 21886ln(x) + 33099R² = 0.8386
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
NDucted Split 0-4kW
NDucted Split 4-6kW
NDucted Split 6-10kW
NDucted Split 10-20 kW
Sales – AC ducted (1): Australia
y = 18317ln(x) + 49321R² = 0.8771
y = 3994.8ln(x) + 7622.5R² = 0.6603
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Ducted 0-20kW
Ducted 20-40kW
Sales – AC ducted (2): Australia
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Ducted 40-65kW
Ducted >65kW
Sales – AC Multi-split: Australia
y = 8149ln(x) + 2589.1R² = 0.9549
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Multi Splits
Multi Splits - VRF
Sales – AC Other: Australia
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
NDucted Unitary 0-10kW
Portables
Sales – Chillers Air Cooled: Australia
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
Air Cooled < 350 kW
Air Cooled >350 - < 500 kW
Air Cooled >500 - < 700 kW
Air Cooled >700 - < 1000 kW
Air Cooled >1000 kW
Sales – Chillers Water Cooled: Australia
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
Water Cooled < 350 kW
Water Cooled >350 - < 500 kW
Water Cooled >500 - < 700 kW
Water Cooled >700 - < 1000 kW
Water Cooled >1000 - < 1500 kW
Water Cooled >1500 kW
Sales – AC Non-ducted: New Zealand
y = 14641ln(x) + 622.63R² = 0.7629
y = 19931ln(x) - 7294.7R² = 0.7496
y = 8452.2ln(x) - 358.07R² = 0.6876
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
NDucted Split 0-4kW
NDucted Split 4-6kW
NDucted Split 6-10kW
NDucted Split 10-20 kW
Sales – AC ducted (1): New Zealand
y = 1566.1ln(x) + 1057.9R² = 0.7562
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030Ducted 0-20kW
Sales – AC ducted (2): New Zealand
y = 62.083ln(x) + 88.399R² = 0.2713
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Ducted 20-40kW
Ducted 40-65kW
Ducted >65kW
Sales – AC Multi-split: New Zealand
y = 251.43ln(x) + 27.316R² = 0.9237
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Multi Splits
Multi Splits - VRF
Sales – AC Other: New Zealand
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
NDucted Unitary 0-10kW
Portables
Sales – Chillers Air Cooled: New Zealand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Air Cooled < 350 kW
Air Cooled >350 - < 500 kW
Air Cooled >500 - < 700 kW
Air Cooled >700 - < 1000 kW
Air Cooled >1000 kW
Sales – Chillers Water Cooled: New
Zealand
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Water Cooled < 350 kW
Water Cooled >350 - < 500 kW
Water Cooled >500 - < 700 kW
Water Cooled >700 - < 1000 kW
Water Cooled >1000 - < 1500 kW
Water Cooled >1500 kW
Data and Assumptions: Scenarios –
Changes due to Policy
• Option A – Increases in part load efficiency for up to 30 kW (ratio increases by
0.8% above BAU from 2017 for 5 years) – Cold climate zones: increase in full load COP by 1% – Portable units: encourage 50% share of sales of double duct – Air conditioners >65 kW to be included in GEMS Act, increased
compliance – Chillers <350 kW to be included in GEMS Act, increased compliance
• Option B1 – Remove part load allowance for AC will increase full load efficiency as
models are upgraded – Portable units: MEPS will shift 95% of sales to double duct – Chillers to meet new requirements from 2017
• Option B2 – Increases in part load efficiency for over 30 kW (ratio increases by 0.3%
above BAU from 2017 for 5 years)
Price vs efficiency
• PE ratio is the ratio of the percentage increase in both price and efficiency – Analysis of data from 2014 shows range is non-linear
over the range of efficiency (from 0.33 to 1.84)
– Most policy costs assessed with PE ratio of 0.5, if more stringent – PE ratio increased
– Zoned label assumes average of 5% increase in price (for all sales)
– Portables – price increase reflects changes in market share of double duct units
– Chillers PE ratio of 1.0 used based on workshops and interviews
Stock Estimate Results
Results – Stock – AC - Australia
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Total AC Stock by Aggregated Category - AU
Total - Multi Splits
Total - Splits
Total - Ducted
Total - WW
Total - Portable
Results – Stock – Chillers - Australia
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Total Stock - AU
Air Cooled < 350 kW
Water Cooled < 350 kW
Air Cooled > 350 kW
Water Cooled > 350 kW
Results – Stock – AC – New Zealand
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Total AC Stock by Aggregated Category - NZ
Total - Multi Splits
Total - Splits
Total - Ducted
Total - WW
Total - Portable
Results – Stock – Chillers – New Zealand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Total Stock - NZ
Air Cooled < 350 kW
Water Cooled < 350 kW
Air Cooled > 350 kW
Water Cooled > 350 kW
CBA Estimate Results
Results – CBA Option A – Australia
Air Conditioners
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
Energy Savings by Category (GWh pa)
Water Cooled > 350 kW
Air Cooled > 350 kW
Water Cooled < 350 kW
Air Cooled < 350 kW
Chillers
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
Energy Savings by Category (GWh pa)
Total - Portable
Total - WW
Total - Ducted
Total - Splits
Total - Multi Splits
Total Benefit ($m) 690.7
Total Cost ($m) 170.2
Benefit Cost Ratio 4.1
Energy Saved (GWh cumulative)
3,237
GHG reduction (kt CO2-e cumulative)
2,879
Total Benefit ($m) 23.8
Total Cost ($m) 3.8
Benefit Cost Ratio 6.4
Energy Saved (GWh cumulative)
135
GHG reduction (kt CO2-e cumulative)
120
Results – CBA Option B1 – Australia
Air Conditioners Chillers Total Benefit ($m) 927.0
Total Cost ($m) 261.5
Benefit Cost Ratio 3.5
Energy Saved (GWh cumulative)
4,521
GHG reduction (kt CO2-e cumulative)
4,027
Total Benefit ($m) 254.6
Total Cost ($m) 28.3
Benefit Cost Ratio 9.0
Energy Saved (GWh cumulative)
1,336
GHG reduction (kt CO2-e cumulative)
1,199
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Energy Savings by Category (GWh pa)
Total - Portable
Total - WW
Total - Ducted
Total - Splits
Total - Multi Splits
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Energy Savings by Category (GWh pa)
Water Cooled > 350 kW
Air Cooled > 350 kW
Water Cooled < 350 kW
Air Cooled < 350 kW
Results – CBA Option B2 – Australia
Air Conditioners Chillers Total Benefit ($m) 1,080.4
Total Cost ($m) 279.7
Benefit Cost Ratio 3.9
Energy Saved (GWh cumulative)
5,336
GHG reduction (kt CO2-e cumulative)
4,762
Total Benefit ($m) 254.6
Total Cost ($m) 28.3
Benefit Cost Ratio 9.0
Energy Saved (GWh cumulative)
1,336
GHG reduction (kt CO2-e cumulative)
1,199
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Energy Savings by Category (GWh pa)
Total - Portable
Total - WW
Total - Ducted
Total - Splits
Total - Multi Splits
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Energy Savings by Category (GWh pa)
Water Cooled > 350 kW
Air Cooled > 350 kW
Water Cooled < 350 kW
Air Cooled < 350 kW
Results – CBA Option A – New Zealand
Air Conditioners Chillers Total Benefit ($m) 104.6
Total Cost ($m) 20.6
Benefit Cost Ratio 5.1
Energy Saved (GWh cumulative)
420
GHG reduction (kt CO2-e cumulative)
41
Total Benefit ($m) 1.4
Total Cost ($m) 0.5
Benefit Cost Ratio 2.6
Energy Saved (GWh cumulative)
7
GHG reduction (kt CO2-e cumulative)
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
Energy Savings by Category (GWh pa)
Total - Portable
Total - WW
Total - Ducted
Total - Splits
Total - Multi Splits
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
Energy Savings by Category (GWh pa)
Water Cooled > 350 kW
Air Cooled > 350 kW
Water Cooled < 350 kW
Air Cooled < 350 kW
Results – CBA Option B1 – New Zealand
Air Conditioners Chillers Total Benefit ($m) 145.3
Total Cost ($m) 28.6
Benefit Cost Ratio 5.1
Energy Saved (GWh cumulative)
595
GHG reduction (kt CO2-e cumulative)
58
Total Benefit ($m) 13.3
Total Cost ($m) 3.6
Benefit Cost Ratio 3.6
Energy Saved (GWh cumulative)
64
GHG reduction (kt CO2-e cumulative)
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
Energy Savings by Category (GWh pa)
Water Cooled > 350 kW
Air Cooled > 350 kW
Water Cooled < 350 kW
Air Cooled < 350 kW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
Energy Savings by Category (GWh pa)
Total - Portable
Total - WW
Total - Ducted
Total - Splits
Total - Multi Splits
Results – CBA Option B2 – New Zealand
Air Conditioners Chillers Total Benefit ($m) 147.6
Total Cost ($m) 29.0
Benefit Cost Ratio 5.1
Energy Saved (GWh cumulative)
606
GHG reduction (kt CO2-e cumulative)
59
Total Benefit ($m) 13.3
Total Cost ($m) 3.6
Benefit Cost Ratio 3.6
Energy Saved (GWh cumulative)
64
GHG reduction (kt CO2-e cumulative)
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
Energy Savings by Category (GWh pa)
Water Cooled > 350 kW
Air Cooled > 350 kW
Water Cooled < 350 kW
Air Cooled < 350 kW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
Energy Savings by Category (GWh pa)
Total - Portable
Total - WW
Total - Ducted
Total - Splits
Total - Multi Splits
Summary CBA – Australia
Option Energy Saved (cumulative
to 2030 - GWh)
GHG Emission Reduction
(cumulative to 2030) Mt
Total Benefit
($M)
Total Investment
($M)
Net Benefit
($M)
BCR
Option A 3,371 3.0 $715 $174 $541 4.1
Option B1 5,857 5.2 $1,182 $290 $892 4.1
Option B2 6,672 6.0 $1,335 $308 $1,027 4.3
Summary CBA – New Zealand
Option Energy Saved (cumulative
to 2030 - GWh)
GHG Emission Reduction
(cumulative to 2030) kt
Total Benefit
($M)
Total Investment
($M)
Net Benefit
($M)
BCR
Option A 427 41.3 $106 $21 $85 5.0
Option B1 659 64.6 $159 $32 $126 4.9
Option B2 670 65.7 $161 $33 $128 4.9
