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Global Trends in
Air Conditioning
Anette M Holley
Chillventa
October 2014
2 Excellence in Market Intelligence 2
AC Global trends
Critical
Very Certain
Energy Efficiency and
renewables
Market Globalization &
Industry consolidation
Refrigerants
VRF vs. Chiller
Market Drivers
Joint Ventures
And Alliances
European Economy
Market Restraints
Emerging
Countries Material
cost
Chinese
growth
slowdown
Smart
buildings
smart homes
Legislation
Ventilation/
DOAS
US recovery
3 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Hitachi and JCI
3
January 2014: JCI purchases 60% of Hitachi AC Business
including the manufacturing facilities
Complete AC range
including ductless
JCI access to established and emerging
markets for ductless and VRF
In the US the
Hitachi product
will be able to
rely on York’s
extensive
dealership
network
4 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Carrier UTC & CIAT
4
July 2014: Carrier UTC bid 53.9% shares from CIAT – not finalised
Focus on commercial AC
and Chillers (Europe) and
residential (USA)
Focus on airside
products and hydronic
Europe (including Russia)
and South Africa market
presence
Global with bias on North
America
• One of the largest
European groups
serving the
commercial AC
market;
• System sale
combining chillers
and airside;
• Dominant in the
French market;
• Production facilities
in France, Spain and
Italy.
• Combined CP Market
Share in France of
35%
5 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World air conditioning market, 2012-2017
Total 2014:
128.5 million units
Total 2014:
Euro 72.3 billion
5
6 Excellence in Market Intelligence 6
Global minisplit market – 2014 e
Top 10 countries in Europe in 2014 by units
(number of outdoor units) – 6.5 million units
representing 6% of global total
7 Excellence in Market Intelligence 7
World inverter air conditioning market
2013 total market
sizes
Inverters (single + multi) by volume
8 Excellence in Market Intelligence 8
AC Chiller market
World Market for chillers from 2012 to
2017 in value (Euro millions)
Top 10 countries in the world market for
chillers in 2014 by value (Euro millions)
Top 10 countries in Europe for chillers in
2014 e by value (Euro millions)
9 Excellence in Market Intelligence 9
VRF market
World market for VRF from 2011 to 2016
in units (outdoor units)
Top 10 countries in the world market VRF in
2014 by units (outdoor units)
Top 10 countries in Europe in 2014 by units
(outdoor units)
10 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World fastest growing markets, CAGR 2012-17
10
Warm spots >5-10% growth
Cold spots <0% growth
Hot spots >10% growth
India
Indonesia
Russia
Colombia Nigeria
Brazil
Venezuela Vietnam
China
Argentina
UK
South
Africa
Mexico
Turkey
11 Excellence in Market Intelligence
AC growth rate in Europe,2014
11
-6% -8%
7%
-14%
12 Excellence in Market Intelligence
The Germany AC market
12
The sale of GEA's Heat Exchanger Division to Triton is moving forward ; expected completion by the end of the year This division includes GEA Air Treatment, the clear German market leader in fan coils, one of the top four in AHUs and a significant player in chillers The Kaut group established a new company, C P Kaut, in September 2014. This will exclusively distribute products from the large Chinese air conditioning A/C company, Hisense, in Germany. Swegon acquired the German company Econdition GmbH, a medium-sized player in industrial and precision cooling systems, in August 2014. This, together with its previous acquisitions of Blue Box and Walter Meier Germany has considerably strengthened its position in the German market
The German AHU market showedg reasonable growth in 2013, with an increasing proportion of products being sold with heat recovery systems The European ErP directive will come into effect in Germany in September 2015 and will have significant effects on both the air conditioning and heating markets
13 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Penetration of air conditioning in dwellings
13
Penetration
Spain 47%
Russia 36%
Italy 31%
Turkey 31%
France 10%
UK & Germany <5%
14 Excellence in Market Intelligence
European air conditioning stock levels of splits
14
15 Excellence in Market Intelligence 15
Europe AC market growth – 2013-14e
UK France Russia Spain Italy
30%
24%
18%
12%
6%
0%
-6%
-12%
-18%
-24%
-30%
Germany Turkey
Splits+VRF (by
volume) Chillers (by value)
16 Excellence in Market Intelligence 16
Expected future growth for Europe (CAGR – 2012-
2017)
UK France Russia Spain Italy
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Germany Turkey
Splits+VRF (by
volume) Chillers (by value)
World Refrigeration
& AC&R
Compressors
MCE, MARCH
2014
Anette Meyer
Holley
18 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World refrigeration & World
compressors
18
2013-14 –
World
refrigeration; 9
countries
2015-16 –
World AC &
Ref
compressors
19 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Global drivers
19
Importance
Degree of Adoption
low
high
med
high
med
• In EU countries supermarkets and energy efficiency are key
• In India, China and Brazil, improving the food chain is a main driver
EU Legislation/
Outlawing of R22;
Directive 2009/125/EC on
Ecodesign1 a framework
for energy reduction
Supermarkets –
Energy Efficiency/
Green credentials
Improve food
chain/avoid
waste
Discount
stores – Lidl,
Aldi etc.
Smaller
supermarkets
Design
Reliability
Quick
installation
Price of
Copper
Reduce noise
levels
Inverters
20 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Growth in refrigeration, by country, by
value, CAGR
20
2012 total: 31,034.5 US$ million
14.5%
8.7%
7.6%
7.0%
4.2%
3.7%
2.7%
2.5%
1.6%
21 Excellence in Market Intelligence
BSRIA as an advisor
on refrigeration
21
RED AMBER GREEN
Indicative energy savings Low savings Medium savings High savings
Where technology can be applied Limited application Some application, but not widespread
Universal application
Ease of application Complex Medium Simple
Maintenance of technology Complex Medium Simple
Interaction with other technologies High interaction Some interaction No interaction
Impact on water use High Medium None
Applicability to Saudi Arabia Not applicable May be applicable Applicable
22 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Contact details
22