Víctor M. AguadoDirector General, EUROCONTROL

Air Navigation: Flying through Congested SkiesICAO & McGill University Institute of Air & Space LawMontreal, September 27-29, 2006

Air Traffic Growth

Air Traffic in Europe will double within the next 20 years:

Airspace Potential

Current Performance of Air Traffic Management in Europe

Good performance, in a context of traffic growth:

Safety ensuredDelays reined in

00,5

11,5

22,5

33,5

44,5

5

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

En-route ATFM delay

Average delay (minutes)

2006(jan-Jul)

66,5

77,5

88,5

9

9,510Flights (millions)

55,5

Flights

Hull Loss Accidents by Primary CauseSource: Boeing, 2005 Statistical

Summary

Flight Crew

Airplane

Weather

Misc./ Other

Airport/ Air Traffic Control

Maintenance

Total withknown causes

Unknown orawaiting reports

Total

74

23

17

10

6

4

134

49

183

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

17%13%

7%

5%3%

55%

Constraints to Growth

Capacity Gap / Sector Splitting Limit

Safety RiskAirport Saturation / Environment

European Safety Plan for ATM (ESP)

European Safety Legislation/Regulation

Incident Reporting and Data Sharing, Just Culture

Safety Management Enhancement

Reduce risk of runway incursions, level busts & comms errors

Increased level of safety maturity for both ANSPs and REGs

Maintaining and improving Safety

Traffic

Capacity with current system

PotentialCapacity with

current concept

Short/MediumTerm Improvements

New Solutions

DMEAN

2005 2010 20202015

Air/gndCOM, Support tools, SUR

SESAR Deployment

Traffic

Capacity with current system

PotentialCapacity with

current concept

Short/MediumTerm Improvements

New Solutions

DMEAN

2005 2010 20202015

Air/gndCOM, Support tools, SUR

SESAR DeploymentSHORT & MEDIUM TERM• European Safety Programme• Improvements based on current technology (DMEAN)

LONG TERM• SESAR

Current and Future Development

10.8 M km²

9.2 M flights

826 km/flight

13.8 M km²

19.2 M flights

1350 km/flight

US / Europe differences & similarities

Global Interoperability

Transatlantic and global cohesion is a must

Conclusion

Human Factors

Societal / environment

Physical restrictions