Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application VII

NATO • Challenges of Modern Society Aseries of edited volumes comprising multifaceted studies of contem­porary problems facing our society, assembled in cooperation with NATO Committee on the Challenges of Modern Society.

Volume 1 AIR POLLUTION MOOELING ANO ITS APPLICATION I Edited by C. Oe Wispelaere

Volume 2 AIR POLLUTION: Assessment Methodology and Modeling Edited by Erich Weber

Volume 3 AIR POLLUTION MOOELING ANO ITS APPLICATION 11 Edited by C. Oe Wispelaere

Volume 4 HAZARDOUS WASTE D1SPOSAL Edited by John P. Lehman

Volume 5 AIR POLLUTION MODELING AND ITS APPLICATION III Edited by C. De Wispelaere

Volume 6 REMOTE SENSING FOR THE CONTROL OF MARINE POLLUTION Edited by Jean-Marie Massin

Volume 7 AIR POLLUTION MODELING ANO ITS APPLICATION IV Edited by C. Oe Wispelaere

Volume 8 CONTAMINATED LAND: Reclamation and Treatment Edited by Michael A. Smith

Volume 9 INTERREGIONAL AIR POLLUTION MODELING: The 5tate of the Art Edited by S. Zwerver and J. van Harn

Volume 10 AIR POLLUTION MODELING AND [T5 APPLICAT[ON V Edited by C. De Wispelaere, Francis A. Schiermeier, and Noor V. Gillani

Volume 11 A[R POLLUTION MODELING AND IT5 APPLICATION V[ Edited by Han van Dop

Volume 12 RI5K MANAGEMENT OF CHEMICAL5 [N THE ENVIRONMENT Edited by Hans M. 5eip and Anders B. Heiberg

Volume 13 AIR POLLUTION MODELING AND ITS APPLICATION VII Edited by Han van Dop

Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application VII

Edited by

Han van Dop Royal Netherlands Meterological Institute De Bilt, The Netherlands

SPRINGER SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA. LLC

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

International Teehnical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and Its Applieation (l7th:

1988: Cambridge, England) Air pollution modeling and its applieation VII / edited by Han van Dop.

p. em. - (NATO challenges of modern society; v. 13) "Published in cooperation with NATO Committee on the Challenges of Modern

Society." "Proceedings of the Seventeenth NATO/CCMS International Technical Meeting on

Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application, held September 19-22, 1988, in Cambridge, United Kingdom" -T.p. verso.

Bibliography: p. Includes index. ISBN 978-1-4615-6411-9 ISBN 978-1-4615-6409-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4615-6409-6 1. Air-Pollution-Mathematical models-Congresses 2. Atmospheric diffusion­

Mathematical models-Congresses. 3. Air-Pollution-Meteorological aspects­Mathematical models-Congresses. 1. Dop, H. van (Han van), 1944- . Il. North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Committee on the Challenges of Modern Society. III. Title. IV. Series. TD881.159 1988 89-8415 628.5/3/015118-dc20

Proceedings of the Seventeenth NATO/CCMS International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application, held September 19-22, 1988, in Cambridge, United Kingdom

© 1989 Springer Science+Business Media New York Originally published by Plenum Press, New York in 1989

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PREFACE

Air pollution remains a major environmental issue despite many years of study and much legislative control. In rec~nt times, pollution on a global scale has become of particular concern. The gradually changing con­centration of trace gases in the global troposphere due to man's activity is becomming a matter of serious concern. No scientist would dare to pre­dict in detail the consequences of this gradual change due to its immense complexity involving social and economic factors and near countless chemical and phjsical cycles in our biosphere. In this chain of processes, the transport of pollution is an important factor, but only a factor. Therefore, I would like to emphasize that the mOdelling of atmospheric transport is becoming more and more an activity which fits into larger frameworks and can no longer be exercised as a single step, which bridges the gap between emissions and policy measures. This is also reflected in the topics and papers which were presented at this conference.

The topics were: - emission invetories for and source treatment in air pollution dispersion

models; - modelling of accidental releases; - regional and global scale dispersion mOdelling; including boundary

layer-free troposphere exchange processes and subgrid scale parameter­isations;

- model verification and policy implications; - new developments in dispersion modelling and theory.

56 papers were presented in these sections. While many posters were dis­cussed in a special session. The conference was held at Downing College, Cambridge, UK, from 19-22 September, and was organised by Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants (CERC). My gratitude goes to my colleagues of CERe, especially to Richard Holroyd and Naomi Coyle for their efforts in making this conference as successful as it was. I also acknowledge Marleen Kaltofen who made an essential contribution to the preparation of these proceedings.

The scientific committee of the 17th ITM consisted of the fOllowing members:

J.L. Walmsley G. Schayes H. van Dop, chairman R.G. van Aalst W. Klug R. Berkowicz J: Saltbones M.L. Williams

Canada Belgium The Netherlands The Netherlands Federal Republic of Germany Denmark Norway United Kingdom

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J.C.R. Hunt United Kingdom. S. Sandroni Italy F .A. Schiermeyer United States N.V. Gillani United States H. Meinl Federal Republic of Germany

D.G. Steyn (Canada), N. Chaumerliac (France) and M. Millan (Spain) recently joined the committee.

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H. van Dop, January 1989

CONTENTS

EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR AND SOURCE TREATMENT IN AIR POLLUTION DISPERSION MODELS

The Use of Emission Data Bases in Air Pollution Dispersion Modelling ..................................................... 3

P.J .H. Builtjes

Evaluation of Hourly Emission Data .................................. 19 Th. Müller, B. Boysen and R. Friedrich

Progress Report on Source Attribution via Numerical Labelling ....... 29 D. Davies

MODELLING OF ACCIDENTAL RELEASES

Modelling Dispersion from Accidental Releases .... .... ........ ....... 39 R.E. Britter

Modeling the Dispersion of Accidentally-released Toxic Gases Heavier than Air.............................................. 53

G. König-Langlo and M. Schatzmann

A Model for Accidental Releases in Complex Terrain .................. 65 S. Thykier-Nielsen, T. Mikkelsen, S.E. Larsen, I. Troen,

A.F. de Baas, R. Kamada, C. Skupniewicz and G. Schacher

Surface Pattern Comparability of Wind-tunnel Simulations of the Thorney Island Dense Gas Dispersion Trials ................ 77

S.-H. Shin and R.N. Meroney

Dispersion of Dense Gas Releases in a Wind Tunnel................... 89 W.B. Petersen, W.H. Snyder, J.Y. Ku and S.T. Rao

A Lagrangian Model for the Real Time Simulation of Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion of Accidently Released Materials ............................................ 99

H.J. van Rheineck Leyssius, H.J.A. van Jaarsveld and F.A.A.M. de Leeuw .

Influence of Non-uniform Mixing Heights on Dispersion Simulations Following the Chernobyl Accident .................. 111

G.H.L. Verver and M.P. Scheele

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MLAM Assessment of Radionuclide Air Concentration and Deposition for the Chernobyl Reactor Accident ............................ 123

W.E. Davis, A.R. Olsen and B.T. Didier

REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SCALE DISPERSION MODELLING BOUNDARY LAYER-FREE TROPOSPHERE EXCHANGE

PROCESSES AND SUBGRID-SCALE PARAMETERISATIONS

Examining the Global Impact of Local/Regional Air Pollution: The Role of Global Chemical Transport Models .................. 139

H. Levy 11 and W.J. Moxim

Cumulus Cloud Vertical Transport Studies with the MOGUNTIA Model .... 159 J. Feichter and P.H. Zimmermann

Intercomparison of Long-range Trajectory Models Applied to Arctic Haze ................................................... 175

J.D. Kahl, J.M. Harris, G.A. Herbert and M.P. Olson

Nitrogen Budget for Eastern Canada .................................. 187 M.P. Olson, J.W. Bottenheim and K.K. Oikawa

Transfer of Sulphur between Continents via the Mid-Iatitude Free Troposphere .............................................. 195

B.E.A. Fisher

hemoval of Pollutants in Different Types of Precipitation ........... 205 H.M. ApSimon and P.A. Stott

Measurements and Models of Wet Deposition to Irregular Topography .................................................... 213

T.W. Choularton, M.W. Gallagher, A.P. Morse, T.A. HilI, A. Jones and D. Fowler

Description of Vertical Dispersion under Influence of Roughness Elements ...................................................... 223

K.E. Grr6nskei

Acidity Production in a Mesoscale Model with Semi-spectral Microphysics .................................................• 237

N. Chaumerliac and R. Rosset

Modelisation of the Three-dimensional Wind Field above the Alpine Region................................................. 245

G. Clerici, S. Micheletti and S. Sandroni

A Complex and a Simple Multi-Iayer Chemical Cloud Model to Predict Scavenging and Wet Deposition......................... 257

J. de Valk, K. Emmett, G. Roelofs, S. van der Veen and P. Builtjes

Modeling of Wet Scavenging and Subgrid-scale Vertical Transport

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by Clouds in a Tropospheric Chemical Model.................... 267 C.J. Walcek and C. Berkowitz

MODEL VERIFICATION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

What Is Required of Dispersion Models and Do They Meet the Requirements? .....................•........................... 279

J.A. Jones

A North American Field Study to Evaluate Eulerian Models D.A. Hansen, H.M. Barnes, M. Lusis and K.J. Puckett

Comparison of Modelled and Measured Tracer Gas Concentrations

~7

during the Across North America Tracer Experiment (ANATEX) 307 T.L. Clark, R.D. Cohn, S.K. Seilkop, R.R. Draxler and

J.L. Heffter

Results from a Comprehensive Acid Deposition Model: Predictions of Regional Ozone Concentrations ...........•.................. 321

P.K. Karamchandani, G. Kuntasal and A. Venkatram

Simulation of an Acid Deposition Episode over Europe with the TADAP/ADOM Eulerian Regional Model ............................ 333

B. Scherer and R. Stern

Studying the Sulphur and Nitrogen Pollution over Europe ............. 351 Z. Zlatev and J. Christensen

Power Plant Plume Dispersion Study in a Coastal Site with Complex Terrain ..............................................• 361

M.M. Millan, R. Salvador, B. Artinano and I. Palomino

A Case Study of Air Pollution in a Swiss Valley with a Multi Box Model ................•............................•........... 371

J.-M. Giovannoni and M. Swan

Field Validation of Dispersion Models for Dense-gas Releases ........ 383 D.L. Ermak

Using the 0resund Experimental Data to Evaluate the ARAC Emergency Response Models ..................................... 393

P.H. Gudiksen and S.-E. Gryning

An Examination of the Performance of Models for Dispersion in the Convective Boundary Layer ................................. 405

A. Venkatram

NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN DISPERSION MODELLING AND THEORY

New Developments in Dispersion Parameterization and Modeling ........ 417 J.C. Wyngaard

Stochastic Modeling of Dispersion in the Convective Boundary Layer ......................................................... 437

J.C. Weil

Fractal Concepts and the Analysis of Atmospheric Inhomogeneities .... 451 F.L. Ludwig

Short Range Diffusion in Convective Light-wind Conditions ........... 461 F.B. Smith

Adsorption-kinetic Non-linear Wash-out Model of Sulphur and Nitrogen Compounds from the Atmosphere ......•.......•......... 475

M.V. Galperin

MSC-E EMEP New Models of the Long-range Air Pollutant Transport .•... 485 A.Ya. Pressman, M.V. Galperin and M.I. Pekar

Long Range Transport: Evaluation of a Particle-in-cell Model Using Sources in the US and USSR .......•...................... 501

D.J. Rodriguez

Airflow and Dispersion over Complex Terrain ......................... 515 D.J. Carruthers, J.C.R. Hunt and R.J. Holroyd

Mesoscale Episode Modelling: Preparation of Input Data and Design of Realization ....•......•........................•.... 531

S. Schmid, J. Graf and D. Heimanr.

IFDM-Superfast 541 G. Cosemans and J.G. Kretzschmar

Experimental Measurements of Concentration Fluctuations ............. 555 K.R. Mylne

Calculation of NO, Concentrations in a Power Plant Plume Using a Classification of NO Oxidation Rates Based on Atmospheric Conditions ........................................ 567

L.H.J.M. Janssen and J.A. van Jaarsveld

POSTERS

Deposition of Atmospheric Trace Metals to North Sea and Baltic Sea ...........................•............................... 581

G. Petersen, H. Weber and H. Grassl

Calibration Field Work on Cooling Towers' Modelling ................. 585 M. Concei9äo, C. Borrego and N. Barros

Feedback of Environmental Survey Data for the Optimisation of the Input Parameters of Assessment Models during an Emergency ..•.................•...•.........•.................. 587

P. Govaerts and A. Sohier

Simulation of Effluent Dispersion in the Rhone River Valley Area The Code Hermes ............................................... 589

P. Geai, S. Perdriel and J.Y. Caneill

A Sulphur Hexafluoride Tracer Dispersion Study at the Sellafield Reprocess ing Plant ..........................•.......•......... 591

M.J. Fulker and K. Moore

Dispersion of Aerial Agricultural Sprays: Model and Validation ...... 595 F. Oeseburg and D. van Leeuwen

Comparison of Gaussian and Lagrangian Atmospheric Dispersion Models with Respect to their Applicability for the Assessment of Short-range Consequences of Accidental Releases ..............•....................................... 599

P. Govaerts, M. Schorling and A. Sohier

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Participants

Author Index

601

615

Subj ect Index •..•.....••...•.•...•.................•...••....•...... 617

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OPENING ADDRESS

It is a pleasure to welcome you to this 17th International Technical Meeting of the NATO-CCMS, on Air Pollution Modelling. I extend a particular welcome to our overseas visitors. This is the first time this well-travelled group of experts has met in the United Kingdom.

Cambridge is an appropriate centre for your meeting. Pioneering work in the field of air pollution modelling has been done here by scientists of great distinction, for example G.I. Taylor and more recently G. Batchelor. Air pollution modelling is one example of the application of mathematics to furthering understanding of the physical world. I point to the unrivalled historical recored of this city which has provided a base for the most eminent natural philosophers from Isaac Newton, through Paul Dirac to Professor Stephen Hawking today. His book is on the list of the best seIlers in Brazil.

Cambridge has also featured more recently in another aspect of air pol­lution: the reduction in stratospheric ozone over Antactica. Dr Joe Farman of the British Antarctic survey here was the first to identify this alarming and rapid development. Dr John Pyle, a specialist in modelling atmospheric chemistry at Cambridge University is chairman of the UK Stratospheric Ozone Review Group which was set up by the Department of the Environment to give an independent review of the depletion of ozone both in Antarctica and globally.

Many of the delegates to this meeting are here because of their own long and distinguished record of work and contribution to modelling of air pollution. Ministers like me do not have the opportunity to spend much time becoming familiar with details of such complex technical subjects.

As I became responsible for air pollution issues within the Department of the Environment in July this year, I did not hesitate about appearing te­fore a gathering of specialists on such an intricate and detailed subject as mathematical modelling. My baptism of fire in the environmental field came at 5 o'clock in the morning on 28 July this year, 3 days after my appoint­ment. It fell to me to reply on environmental issues during the debate in the House of Commons on the Consolidated Funds Bill. This is a particular form of torture for British ministers when members of parliament can raise any issue for debate. Almost everything has a relevance for government finance in some way or other. In that debate we covered sulphur and nitrogen oxides control, motor vehicle emission regulations, stratospheric ozone and climate change under the heading of air pollution alone. After that experience, even the most formidable academic audience appears friendly. Two of the points I made in that debate are relevant to this conference - our recognition of the international aspect of air pollution, and the importance we place on basing decisions on the best available scientific foundation.

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The international dimenion is crucial. Delegates to this meeting have contributed to understanding the way in which pollutants can move thousands of kilometers ac ross seas and continents crossing many national boundaries on the way. (It is somewhat ironie to us in the EC that setting up a free market in the good things that society produces, takes so much time, effort, negotiation and planning, when our unwanted waste products have for so long clearly escaped all border checks and barriers.)

Acid deposition is a phenomenon on a truly continental scale, and possibly one which will prove to be of hemispheric significance. Strato­spheric ozone, the chemistry of the background troposphere and, of course, climate change are by their very nature global in scale. Countries cannot stand alone in the face of such problems. Solutions have to be found inter­nationally, and the first step in reaching internatioal agreements on action is mutually to understand the science behind the phenomemon. This is a key point of importance in the work of groups such as this meeting here today. I am particularly happy to see the United Kingdom playing a full role.

The United Kingdom strongly supports two international programmes on air pollution modelling - the UN/ECE EMEP project which seeks to define the transboundary movement and deposition of pollutants, and the OECD MAP project which is, through modelling, concerned with economically viable ways in which air pollution can be reduced. Last week we hosted an international modelling workshop to discuss the model results of potential controls on pollution emissions for low level ozone formation.

There are two aspects of our present approach in the United Kingdom that are worth emphasising as complementary to traditional, regulatory policies. We encourage novel low-polluting or abatement technology through the Department of the Environment's "Environmental Protection Technology" scheme. In the field of air pollution we have already identified as priority areas municipal waste treatment and odour control. I will be watehing with interest the progress of applications for grant aid on these and other topics.

The other development (I was pleased to play a part in it last week when I opened "Green Consumer Week") is the encouragement of vOluntary change away from environmentally harmful sUbstances, led by market pressure. This process has been illustrated most spectacularly in the UK by the rapid phase down in the use of CFCs in aerosols, without specific regulatory action. We are also working hard to encourage an increased take-up of unleaded petrol.

The work that international groups, such as NATO/CCMS do in developing, documenting and disseminating information, is invaluable for other countries. We must not forget that some of the lessons that we have learned and sol­utions that we found so me time aga are still of relevance.

Many countries have tackled, for example, the classical problem of "London smog" - cÜstinguished today by the fact that it no longer occurs in London! In other parts of the developing world, and even in parts of Europe, similar problems still exist. The nature of smog has also changed. Photo­chemical smogs which afflict cities such as Los Angeles and Mexico City are the product of vehicle emissions and strong sunlight in a stable atmos­phere. Much effort is currently going into reducing these problems.

This year has seen major and far reaching new measures to protect the atmosphere and to reduce the consequential problems of acidification of lakes and streams, nitrogen eutrophication, harmful effects on ecosystems and on human health such as respiratory problems, skin cancer, and the aesthetic benefit of improvements in visibility. The Uni ted Kingdom plays an

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important role. Within the European Community the agreement on control of emissions fromlarge combustion plants will lead to reductions in both sulphur and nitrogen oxides. Air pollution modellers are already busy predicting the impact the reductions will have on the deposition of acidic species.

A major advance was also made on completing the Directive on vehicle emissions, which I hope we will see finalised before the end of the year. On the widest scale, the conclusion of the Montreal Protocol will reduce the consumption of the chlorofluorocarbons that threaten the ozone layer. As important as the topic itself is the fact that this Protocol was the first that could be called truly global in concept.

All these events drew on air pollution mOdelling for their justifica­tion and formulation. It has helped us understand the phenomenon of trans­boundary pollution and the potential for reducing the problem. It has given us a tangible picture of the fearsomely complex interactions involved in photochemical pollutions and the ways in which control of hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide emissions affect concentrations of ozone and photochemical products. It has given us our only estimates of the potential input of CFCs on stratospheric ozone and of greenhouse gases on the global climate. Only modelling can investigate the possible impact of future policies.

Air pollution modelling has come a long way in 17 years. In the early 1970s the primary concern was to model the physical dispersal of pollutants on a relatively local scale. Since then the larger scale has become important. Interest has grown in chemical interactions in the atmosphere. Ironically, severe pollution events give an impetus for new research and provide useful information. The Chernobyl disaster was a prime example.

Many of the issues such as acid rain and stratospheric ozone depletion were not even on te agenda 17 years ago. We could speculate about the agenda for 2005. Many of today's issues will still be around. Climate change is now iooming large on the horizon. We should say that 17 years is a long time in air pollution.

Obscure and complex as some aspects of your work may be, its relevance and importance to modern society is weIl recognised, even by Ministers. Dr Williams, head of the Air Pollution Division at Warren Spring Laboratory (where a great deal of work for my Department is done) will be pleased to hear this. Now that I appreciate the depth and power of mathematical modelling techniques, I will be coming to hirn for answers to all our air pollution problems - tomorrow, or by the end of the month at the latest!

I would also like to express my thanks to Julian Hunt and Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants for all their hard work in organising this meeting and inviting me to open it.

I wish you all a most successful and productive stay at Cambridge. I am sure you will find the atmosphere of this academic city helpful and I hope you will not wait until the 34th International Technical Meeting before coming together in the United Kingdom again.

Mrs V. Bottomley, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for the Environment, UNITED KINGDOM

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