Air Quality and Climate Change

Mark ChapmanAir Quality & Acoustics Technical Coordinator

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“The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change presents very serious global risks, and it demands an urgent global response.”

Stern Review, 2006

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Local Air Quality

UK Air Quality Strategy

• Benzene

• 1,3-butadiene

• Carbon monoxide

• Lead

• Nitrogen dioxide

• Ozone

• Particulate Matter (PM10)

• Sulphur dioxide

• Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs)

UK Air Quality Regulations

• Benzene

• 1,3-butadiene

• Carbon monoxide

• Lead

• Nitrogen dioxide

• Nitrogen oxides

• Particulate Matter (PM10)

• Sulphur dioxide

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Climate ChangeWhat is understood by the term ‘Climate Change’?

1. Impact on the Planet

2. Weather

3. Impact on People

4. Uncertainty

5. Things or Events

6. Causes

7. Global Warming

8. Fear

9. Time Context

10.Other

Public Perception of Climate Change(2006 Risk Communication Study - UWE) 56 Participants in Bristol

Top 10 ‘Themes’

• Climate Change is an ‘Environmental’ Issue • Climate Change is an ‘Society’ Issue

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The Simplified Greenhouse Effect Explanation

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The ‘Enhanced’ Greenhouse Effect

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Air Quality & Climate ChangeLinkages

Climate Change

Main Greenhouse Gases

• Carbon dioxide (CO2)• Methane (CH4)• Nitrous oxide (N2O)• Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)• Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)• Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) • Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)

Air Quality

Major Indirect Greenhouse Gases

• Carbon Monoxide (CO)• Nitrogen oxides (NOx)• Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)

e.g. ammonium

Aerosols

• Sulphur dioxide (SO2) Secondary Sulphate Particles

• Particulate Matter (PM10) / Nitrate• Organic Carbon• Black Carbon (Soot)

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The Effects of Climate Change on Air Quality

Climate Change is not just about changes in temperature:

• Humidity (Specific)

• Clouds and Precipitation

• Winds

• Others…

How might this affect Air Quality?

• Emissions – Temperature dependence

• Transport – Winds

• Chemistry – Temperature and humidity

• Deposition – Precipitation

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The Effects of Climate Change on Air Quality

Climate Change will increase the probability of local air pollution events

• Number and strength of summer highs (The ozone episode of 2003 will be a ‘normal’ occurrence)

• Number and duration of calm winter days(The ‘Great’ London Smog)

• Mean concentrations are likely to remain unchanged

• Higher chance of extreme concentrations

• Likelihood of increased associated mortality rates

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The Effects of Air Quality on Climate Change

VERY COMPLICATED – VERY LOW SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING

A few examples:Nitrogen Oxides (NO + NO2) – Fossil Fuel Combustion and Natural Sources

• Reacts to produce ozone WARMING• Reacts to produce nitrate aerosol COOLING• Reacts to increase methane removal COOLING• Overall NET COOLING

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) – Industry and Natural (Major Source)

• Reacts to produce ozone WARMING• Reacts to decrease methane removal WARMING• Reacts to form organic carbon aerosol COOLING• Overall NET ??? – Species Dependent : Some have better ozone production efficiency/others don’t form

aerosols

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) – Coal-Fired Power Stations, Shipping and Natural

• Reacts to produce sulphate aerosol COOLING

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Climate (or Radiative) Forcing:Change in the average net radiation at the top of the troposphere

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Solutions?

• Energy Conservation and Efficiency Improvements• Abatement Measures - (Flue-gas desulphurisation, catalytic

converters, particle filters, NOx traps

– Improve air quality, but mostly INCREASE CO2 through decreased efficiency (getting better – but very costly)

– Removing aerosol precursors can warm climate even further– Removing black carbon particles cools climate

– Catalytic converters can generate N2O and greater primary NO2

• Fuel Switching (e.g. Petrol to Diesel)

– Less CO2, but more black carbon (GWP 680)

– Bad for AQ; but NET effect on Climate ???

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Summary

What can we provide for our Clients to help bridge the Air Quality Climate Change Gap?

• Traffic Emission Optimisation Recommendation

– Speed

– HGV

– Driving Patterns

• Quantification and Relative Comparison of CO2e

• Abatement Specification and Design Advice

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Further Details

Mark Chapman

Air Quality & Acoustics Technical Coordinator

Planning & Consultation (1401)

West Hall

Tel: 01932 337 590

Mobile: 07976 344 311

mark.chapman@mouchelparkman.com