Airframe Digital Twin - Amazon Web Services

1DISTRIBUTION A. Public release, distribution unlimited. 88ABW-2018-2150, 25 Apr 2018

Integrity Service Excellence

Working Towards a

Digital Twin

03 July 2018

Dr. Eric Tuegel

Aerospace Systems Directorate

U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory


Outline

• The Digital Twin Vision

• Airframe Digital Twin Spiral 1 Program

– Probabilistic Individual Aircraft (Fatigue) Tracking

– Demonstration Experiment


Outline

• The Digital Twin Vision





Digital Twin

• Probabilistic simulation of a

unique individual by serial

number

• Digital data, models and

parameters, and forecasts for

that individual

• Statistical updating of the Twin

from observations of that

individual

A DIGITAL SIMULATION of an INDIVIDUAL ASSET


Digital Thread

• Complete digital accessibility to all

data, models, analyses, and

simulations

• Tools to access, authenticate,

integrate, & transform data,

models, analyses, and simulations

• Probabilistic framework for

presenting, analyzing, and

updating uncertainty in the data,

models, analyses, and

simulations.

Concept Development

Design

Test & Evaluation

Production

Operation

SustainmentDesign &

Performance

Materials, Processing, & Manufacturing

Operation & Maintenance

The DIGITAL NETWORK supporting DIGITAL TWINS


Digital Thread/Twin Tenets

• Use ALL AVAILABLE

INFORMATION in simulations

• Use PHYSICS to inform

models

• Use PROBABILISTIC

METHODS to quantify

uncertainty

• Use FEEDBACK to reduce

uncertainty in models and

simulations

PERFORMANCE

COST

COST

COST

COST

COST

COST

Concept Development

Design

Test &Evaluation

Production

Operation

SustainmentDesign &

Performance

Materials, Processing, & Manufacturing

Operation & Maintenance

PERFORMANCE

PERFORMANCE

PERFORMANCE

PERFORMANCE

PERFORMANCE


Developing the Digital Twin

• Develop in small pieces

– Define requirements

– Demonstrate benefits

• Identify a decision process that

could be improved

• Identify the owner of that decision

process

– Interest in improving process

• Apply DT tenets to the process

– Needs to be strategic in advancing DT


Outline

• Digital Twin – the Dream





Airframe Digital Twin (ADT) Spiral 1

• Process: Individual Aircraft Fatigue Tracking

• Owner: Senior Leader for Structural Integrity

• Digital Twin Tenets

– Data rich process

– Physics-informed models exist

– Need to introduce probabilistics / uncertainty quantification

– Information is not readily fed back into the process

• Strategic:

– ID what DT needs to contain in order to sustain airframe

– Models, etc., used in IAT are also used in Design of airframe


Traditional IAT Process

Physical Aircraft

Flight History

Database

Specify Forecast

Horizon ()

Forecast A/C

Condition at t+

Fleet Spectrum

A/C Condition at

Current Flight Hours (t)

Plan Inspection

at T FH

Fly A/C ( FH);

Record Flight Parameters

Update A/C Condition to

Reflect Actual Flights to

t+ FH

t+= T?

Inspect

Maintenance

No

Yes

IAT Software

IAT Software

Quarterly IAT Report

Largest Crack Missed

@ Inspection

Actual Flights

A/C Condition

Database


Overall P2IAT Process

Physical Aircraft

Digital Twin

Database

Specify Forecast

Horizon ()

Forecast of

Future Flights

Forecast A/C Condition

to Horizon (t+ FH)

Select Digital Twin

A/C Condition at Last

IAT Update (t FH)

Plan InspectionsFly A/C ( FH);

Record Flight Parameters

Update A/C Condition for

Actual Flights to

t+ FH

Inspect?

Update A/C Condition

based on Inspections

& Repairs

No

Yes

Boxes outlined in orange indicate probability distributions.

P2IAT Software

Probability of Crack

Detection

P2IAT Software

Actual Flights

Maintenance

Quarterly IAT Report


Inspection Criterion

Modified Kullback-Leibler Divergence

p(a) = CDF of crack length model

q(a) = CDF of crack length measurements

(POD model for detections)

Maximum Information Gain

Flights

SF

PO

F

Search

Interval

10-7


Outline

• Digital Twin – the Dream





Demonstrate Probabilistic IAT

• Moderately complex structure

– Maneuver load driven

• Cover range of variation, not just one point

– Two test articles with different load spectra

• Demonstrate sustained execution speed

– Track at least 10 control points per test article

– Twelve months of loading


Full Scale Test of Two Retired Wings

Outer Wing is loaded. Inner Wing is transition structure.


• Determine Technical Benefits of Probabilistic IAT ➢ Protects safety and airworthiness

➢ More efficient inspection schedule

➢ Reduce uncertainty about condition of structure as test

progresses

• Develop Business Case for Probabilistic IAT➢ Estimate cost savings due to more efficient maintenance

➢ Estimate of development costs

➢ Estimate of support costs

➢ Compare to conventional IAT

• Identify gaps and plan future R&D

Demonstration Objectives


Questions

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