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Airside Expansion at Lambert Field:
The Blues in St. Louis
Airside Expansion at Lambert Field:
The Blues in St. Louis
Tudor Masek – December 6, 200716.871 Airport Systems Planning,
Design, and Management
Tudor Masek – December 6, 200716.871 Airport Systems Planning,
Design, and Management
22
OverviewOverview
Motivation
Expansions at Lambert
Trans World Airlines
Traffic Collapse
What Went Wrong?
Motivation
Expansions at Lambert
Trans World Airlines
Traffic Collapse
What Went Wrong?
Airport Master Plan
Local Tensions
Financing
The Road Ahead
Conclusion
Airport Master Plan
Local Tensions
Financing
The Road Ahead
Conclusion
33
44
55
MotivationMotivation
STL traffic collapse in the new millennium– 30.6 mil pax in 2000– 13.4 mil pax in 2004
New 9,000 ft. runway at Lambert Field– Cost just over $1 billion– Friction with the local communities
Why the mismatch of supply and demand?
STL traffic collapse in the new millennium– 30.6 mil pax in 2000– 13.4 mil pax in 2004
New 9,000 ft. runway at Lambert Field– Cost just over $1 billion– Friction with the local communities
Why the mismatch of supply and demand?
66
Lambert-St. Louis AirportLambert-St. Louis Airport
Passenger traffic soared in the 1970s– Airport expanded terminal facilities, extends
runways, and increased capacity by 50% to keep up with demand
Boom continued in the 1980s and 1990s– Master Plan calls for additional airside capacity
Runway 11-29 construction– Approved in 1998, broke ground in 2001,
completed in 2005, opened in 2006
Passenger traffic soared in the 1970s– Airport expanded terminal facilities, extends
runways, and increased capacity by 50% to keep up with demand
Boom continued in the 1980s and 1990s– Master Plan calls for additional airside capacity
Runway 11-29 construction– Approved in 1998, broke ground in 2001,
completed in 2005, opened in 2006
77
Trans World AirlinesTrans World Airlines
Hub in St. Louis since 1982 De-regulation hit TWA hard
– Had neglected to develop domestic network Sold to Carl Icahn in 1985
– Bankruptcy in 1992 Icahn ousted in 1993
– Karabu Deal– Bankruptcy again in 1995
Short-lived turnaround in the late 1990s– Third bankruptcy– Acquired by American Airlines in 2001
Hub in St. Louis since 1982 De-regulation hit TWA hard
– Had neglected to develop domestic network Sold to Carl Icahn in 1985
– Bankruptcy in 1992 Icahn ousted in 1993
– Karabu Deal– Bankruptcy again in 1995
Short-lived turnaround in the late 1990s– Third bankruptcy– Acquired by American Airlines in 2001
88
The Blues in St. Louis..The Blues in St. Louis..
American cuts service to Lambert-St. Louis– Flights to Lambert cut in half in 2003 – Lease renewed only for Concourse C in 2005– Passenger traffic through Lambert plummets
American cuts service to Lambert-St. Louis– Flights to Lambert cut in half in 2003 – Lease renewed only for Concourse C in 2005– Passenger traffic through Lambert plummets
History of Traffic at Lambert Field
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Th
ou
san
ds
Year
Op
era
tion
s
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Million
s
Passen
gers
Operations Passengers
99
What Happened?What Happened?
So what went wrong at Lambert Field?– Bad planning?– Bad timing?– Bad luck?
Or was construction justified and within the scope of regional and national goals?– Is runway beneficial despite decline in demand?– Was the expansion project worthwhile?
So what went wrong at Lambert Field?– Bad planning?– Bad timing?– Bad luck?
Or was construction justified and within the scope of regional and national goals?– Is runway beneficial despite decline in demand?– Was the expansion project worthwhile?
1010
Lambert Airport Master PlanLambert Airport Master Plan
Original Master Plan (1987-1993) called for rebuilding the entire airfield– 4 new parallel runways rotated clockwise 10 degrees– Construction to take place while operations continue!
Master Plan Supplement initiated in 1994– Preserve Lambert’s role as critical link in NAS– Strengthen role as major economic asset hub– Provide facilities to keep Lambert competitive
Simultaneous independent IFR approaches
Original Master Plan (1987-1993) called for rebuilding the entire airfield– 4 new parallel runways rotated clockwise 10 degrees– Construction to take place while operations continue!
Master Plan Supplement initiated in 1994– Preserve Lambert’s role as critical link in NAS– Strengthen role as major economic asset hub– Provide facilities to keep Lambert competitive
Simultaneous independent IFR approaches
1111
12L12L
12R12R
30L30L30R30R
66
2424
1310 ft1310 ft
1212
Traffic Forecasts & AssumptionsTraffic Forecasts & Assumptions
Low (no hub): 26 mil annual pax in 2015– Assumes loss of airline hub connecting traffic, with
eventual replacement by a new airline
Middle (baseline): 42 mil pax in 2015– Assumes business-as-usual– Was used for all the alternative comparisons
High (new hub): 56 mil pax in 2015– Assumes either increased hubbing by existing carriers,
new hub established by another airline, or higher-than-expected regional economic growth
Low (no hub): 26 mil annual pax in 2015– Assumes loss of airline hub connecting traffic, with
eventual replacement by a new airline
Middle (baseline): 42 mil pax in 2015– Assumes business-as-usual– Was used for all the alternative comparisons
High (new hub): 56 mil pax in 2015– Assumes either increased hubbing by existing carriers,
new hub established by another airline, or higher-than-expected regional economic growth
1313
Multiple Airport SystemMultiple Airport System
Option to develop Mid-America to relieve Lambert
– Lambert is 12 miles to the northwest of downtown
– Mid-America is about 19 miles to the southeast!
Airline hubbing makes this option infeasible
– Threshold for secondary airport seems to be 10 to 12
million originating passengers per year
– Demand forecast for St. Louis region indicates only
about 8.7 million originating passengers in 2015
Option to develop Mid-America to relieve Lambert
– Lambert is 12 miles to the northwest of downtown
– Mid-America is about 19 miles to the southeast!
Airline hubbing makes this option infeasible
– Threshold for secondary airport seems to be 10 to 12
million originating passengers per year
– Demand forecast for St. Louis region indicates only
about 8.7 million originating passengers in 2015
1414
Lambert Development OptionsLambert Development Options
Source: Leigh Fischer Associates, Master Plan Supplement Study, Lambert-St. Louis International AirportSource: Leigh Fischer Associates, Master Plan Supplement Study, Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
1515
W-1W DetailsW-1W Details
New 9,000’ x 150’ $1.059 billion runway (11/29)
4,100’ centerline displacement from 12L/30R
12,000’ threshold displacement
Average hourly runway capacity to increase from 97 to 131
Average taxi time to increase from 5.3 to 6.9 min per op
Reduction of operational and passenger delays both at
Lambert and in the National Airspace System
New 9,000’ x 150’ $1.059 billion runway (11/29)
4,100’ centerline displacement from 12L/30R
12,000’ threshold displacement
Average hourly runway capacity to increase from 97 to 131
Average taxi time to increase from 5.3 to 6.9 min per op
Reduction of operational and passenger delays both at
Lambert and in the National Airspace System
1616
More HighlightsMore Highlights
Acquisition of almost 1,600 acres, including 2,300 homes,
displacing about 5,680 people (City of Bridgeton)
Moved 18.3 million tons of soil; soil neutral
First automobile tunnel in the state of Missouri
Noise impacts projected to decrease
Improvement of air quality
Injection of over $400m into the economy through contracts
with 550 companies (80% local) employing 14,000 people
Acquisition of almost 1,600 acres, including 2,300 homes,
displacing about 5,680 people (City of Bridgeton)
Moved 18.3 million tons of soil; soil neutral
First automobile tunnel in the state of Missouri
Noise impacts projected to decrease
Improvement of air quality
Injection of over $400m into the economy through contracts
with 550 companies (80% local) employing 14,000 people
1717
Master and Land Use PlanMaster and Land Use Plan
Source: Leigh Fischer Associates, Master Plan Update for Airport Expansion, Lambert-St. Louis International AirportSource: Leigh Fischer Associates, Master Plan Update for Airport Expansion, Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
1818
Land AcquisitionLand Acquisition
Source: Lambert-St. Louis International Airport, Status Briefing for Society of Military Engineers, Nov 8 2004Source: Lambert-St. Louis International Airport, Status Briefing for Society of Military Engineers, Nov 8 2004
1919
Local TensionsLocal Tensions
Bridgeton sues the City of St. Louis (land use) Resistance from Bridgeton and interest groups
– Concerns about fair market price for land acquisition – Requested real-time simulation (MPS assumptions)
Bridgeton sues the City of St. Louis (land use) Resistance from Bridgeton and interest groups
– Concerns about fair market price for land acquisition – Requested real-time simulation (MPS assumptions)
2020
Terminal ExpansionTerminal Expansion
Mid-field satellite terminal concept
Demand driven development
Mid-field satellite terminal concept
Demand driven development
Source: Lambert-St. Louis International Airport, Status Briefing for Society of Military Engineers, Nov 8 2004Source: Lambert-St. Louis International Airport, Status Briefing for Society of Military Engineers, Nov 8 2004
Currently: 89 aircraft gate positions; ~1.5 million square feet
Projected future need: ~110 total gates (2015)
Site between runways can accommodate a satellite terminal with 150 additional gates positions
Currently: 89 aircraft gate positions; ~1.5 million square feet
Projected future need: ~110 total gates (2015)
Site between runways can accommodate a satellite terminal with 150 additional gates positions
2121
CC
EastEastDDMainMain
BBAA
ANGANG
EE
2222
Project FinancingProject Financing
Of the $1 billion cost of the project:
– Almost half of is for land acquisition
– Almost 40% is for construction itself
– The remainder is for management and consulting
overhead
Only about 1/3 of costs passed on to airlines
Construction completed on time and on budget
Of the $1 billion cost of the project:
– Almost half of is for land acquisition
– Almost 40% is for construction itself
– The remainder is for management and consulting
overhead
Only about 1/3 of costs passed on to airlines
Construction completed on time and on budget
2323
Traffic Forecast vs. ActualTraffic Forecast vs. ActualOperations at Lambert Field
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Th
ou
san
ds
Year
Op
era
tion
s
Low Forecast Middle Forecast High Forecast Actual
Passengers at Lambert Field
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Million
s
Year
Passen
gers
Low Forecast Middle Forecast High Forecast Actual
Both Operations and Passengers are below the Low forecast!
Runway completed but terminal expansion abandoned
Both Operations and Passengers are below the Low forecast!
Runway completed but terminal expansion abandoned
2424
What’s Next?What’s Next?
Delay reductions– Lambert more attractive to new airlines
Excess in capacity– Renewed or increased hub operations?
On-time performance rankings– Lambert has performed better than O’Hare– On par with Dallas/Ft. Worth
Delay reductions– Lambert more attractive to new airlines
Excess in capacity– Renewed or increased hub operations?
On-time performance rankings– Lambert has performed better than O’Hare– On par with Dallas/Ft. Worth
2525
Competing HubsCompeting HubsHistory of Traffic at Dallas/Ft. Worth International
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Th
ou
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ds
Year
Op
era
tion
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Million
s
Passen
gers
Operations Passengers
History of Traffic at O'Hare
800
850
900
950
1,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Th
ou
san
ds
Year
Op
era
tion
s
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
Million
s
Passen
gers
Operations Passengers
On-Time Departures at STL, ORD, and DFW
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Perc
en
t of
Dep
art
ure
s
STL ORD DFW
On-Time Arrivals at STL, ORD, and DFW
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Perc
en
t of
Arr
ivals
STL ORD DFW
2626
ConclusionConclusion
Demand forecasts were over-optimistic, BUT The need for the new runway was not demand-
driven but rather delay-driven Terminal expansion plans were (rightly)
abandoned as traffic plummeted New runway was probably cheaper to build than it
would have been 10 years later Runway 11/29 seems to have been justified and
will likely be invaluable when traffic returns to STL
Demand forecasts were over-optimistic, BUT The need for the new runway was not demand-
driven but rather delay-driven Terminal expansion plans were (rightly)
abandoned as traffic plummeted New runway was probably cheaper to build than it
would have been 10 years later Runway 11/29 seems to have been justified and
will likely be invaluable when traffic returns to STL
2727
Questions?Questions?