By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-12

Daesh versus Al Qaida or should we say Daesh pulling the wagon in Phase V of AQ’s Seven Phased plan?

The name Daesh, according to France24, is a "loose acronym" for "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (al-Dawla al-Islamiya al-Iraq al-Sham). The name is commonly used by enemies of ISIS, and it also has many negative undertones, as Daesh sounds similar to the Arabic words Daes ("one who crushes something underfoot") and Dahes ("one who sows discord"). The Arabs call it 'Daesh'.

C: Almost a year to the day that the World woke up in a shock with the announcement, declaring restoration of the Islamic caliphate: self declared by their ruler and "leader for Muslims everywhere" Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi: caliph Ibrahimi. The past year events upset the whole world and accelerated all kind of counter actions and measures, but also difficult and mind bugling to contain issues: like the flow of IDP’s and refugees, and un-human atrocities. With the focus on Daesh (former ISIL) what many like forget or neglect is that the restoration and claiming of the caliphate is part of a long term plan of the Al Qaida leadership, it is meant to be their strategic phase V out of a Seven phased plan: According to the LWJ Bill Roggio, 15 Aug 2005 1: Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein published an account of Al Qaeda's long-term strategic goals. Back then the plan was ridiculed and mostly negletted, or brushed away as a pipe dream. As Roggio mentions: Based in interviews with al Qaeda operatives Hussein portrays a seven phase plan that, if nothing else, shows the desires, regardless of how fantastical, of the world's most infamous and evil terrorist group. Today’s event paints a different conclusion. And although Baghdadi’s caliphate claim is disputed by many even within Islamic clerics but also to include the AQSL, who disposed him from their organisation when he did. Baghdadi – declaring Phase V; the caliphate is however still in line and permissible to their mentioned Seven Phased plan. The road, progress of the first four phases prior to declaring of the plan is visualised in graphic below.

Al-Qaida’s purported strategy can be broken down into seven “phases” which span from 2000 until 2020 The First Phase Known as “the awakening” lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003 .The Second Phase “Opening Eyes” is, the period we are now in and should last until 2006. The Third Phase This is described as “Arising and Standing Up” and should last from 2007 to 2010. “There will be a focus on Syria”The Fourth Phase Between 2010 and 2013, al-Qaida will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that “the creeping loss of the regimes’ power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaida.”

The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016

1 The Word Unheard points us to an article in Spiegel Online by a Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein, who is believed to be a reliable source of information on al Qaeda. His main source for this article on al Qaeda strategy is none other than Saif al-Adel, al Qaeda's military commander who is currently operating from Iran. al Qaeda's purported strategy can be broken down into seven "phases" which span from 2000 until 2020, at which time they believe the global Islamist Caliphate will be established and they will acheive "definitive victory." Here are the phases, which are followed by commentary when appropriate.

Cees: Intel to Rent Page 1 of 11 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

The Sixth Phase from 2016 onwards there will be a period of “total confrontation.” The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as “definitive victory.” The rest of the world will be so beaten down by the “one-and-a-half million Muslims,” the caliphate will undoubtedly succeed. This phase should be completed by 2020, although the war shouldn’t last longer than two years.

The graphic tells it own story of turbulent, violent and significant events taken place between 2000 and 2013; the year (2013) many intelligence organisations claimed that AQ was stronger than ever and posturing a severe threat to global security, but foremost Syria: as predicted in phase III, followed by the fall of many regional rulers again as predicted in phase IV of their plan. In 2014 the self declared caliphate came to the afore; phase V, and we all know how that is developing. So far Five out of Seven Phases of Al Qaida’s grand plan came to fruition. The question to ask here is this – Paris, Brussels, events in Africa and else where - revenge or Lone Wolf attack’s, although mentioned or a transit into their – al Qaida - next phase of their Seven stage plan, or are the latest events an ordinary – but deadly battle for global jihad control, fought out between Daesh and AQ on the soil of the House of War, Disbelieve – dar al-Harb, or is it the prelude for moving into the next phase: a period of “total confrontation.”

C: nearly a year ago; In an audio recording released, the group formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant declared its chief, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, "the caliph" and "leader for Muslims everywhere". "The legality of all emirates, groups, states and organisations becomes null by the expansion of the caliph's authority and the arrival of its troops to their areas," said the group's spokesman Abu Mohamed al-Adnani. "Listen to your caliph and obey

Cees: Intel to Rent Page 2 of 11 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

him. Support your state, which grows every day.'' The group announced that it was now called the "Islamic State". According to the statement, the new caliphate stretches from Iraq's Diyala province to Syria's Aleppo. "The Shura [council] of the Islamic State met and discussed this issue [of the caliphate] ... the Islamic State decided to establish an Islamic caliphate and to designate a caliph for the state of the Muslims, said Adani. "The words 'Iraq' and 'the Levant' have been removed from the name of the Islamic State in official papers and documents." It describes Baghdadi as "the sheikh, the fighter, the scholar who practices what he preaches, the worshipper, the leader, the warrior, the reviver, descendant from the family of the Prophet, the slave of God". It urges Muslims to "gather around your caliph, so that you may return as you once were for ages, kings of the earth and knights of war."

C; What do we have after a year of declaring the Caliphate; ISIS-Daesh still in the fight, holding so far vital ground, decimating and nearly dissolving at least two countries, displacing millions of people, setting a nearly global refugee flow in motion, uprooting their cause into the region, destabilising the Middle Eastern and beyond and committing sickening atrocities in the name of their perceived believe. The Kurds opposing and fighting Daesh also seeking territory to hold and opposing Arabs living there, Iran envision and expanding their Crescent of influence. The West still mainly talking: providing air support and train moderates - that likely cross the line to support Daesh after training and equipping. Utilizing others; to include mercenaries to conduct the fight on the ground, neglecting historical lessons learned. Concerned and upset, seeking solutions for the (western) inspired fighters going and returning from the region. Concerned and trying to prevent growing threats of Daesh inspired terror attacks and more. At the time all are focused on Daesh and in the mean time dropped the ball on Al Qaida allowing it to disappear below the radar. However we need to understand that the current Daesh caliphate crisis – although Baghdadi and al Zawahiri are not on the same sheet of paper - is still permissible to AQ’s long-term planning.

The Pious Caliphate Will Start From Afghanistan, bin Laden said" (Does Mullah Omar fits into 1926 credentials; With the withdrawal of western forces from Afghanistan)

Cees: Mullah Mohamed Omar, the leader of the so-called Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan—known more commonly as the Afghan Taliban—has issued a fatwa declaring pledges of allegiance to the self-styled “caliphate” of the Islamic State forbidden in Islamic law , multiple regional news agencies have reported. Omar, who got his start fighting Soviet forces in Afghanistan, referred to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as a “fake caliph,” and said “Baghdadi just wanted to dominate what has so far been achieved by the real jihadists of Islam after three decades of jihad. A pledge of allegiance to him is ‘haram.’”( Iranian Tanbak news agency 13 April 2015) C: In reference to the many of my previous document addressing the legitimacy of self declared “second caliph: Baghdadi, and Omar referring to Islamic Jurisprudence and Hadeeths - just think about this for a moment, the afore in it self is significant. The Commander of the faithful _Omar, the earlier caliph -, in a fatwa declaring pledges of allegiance to the self-styled “caliphate” of the Islamic State forbidden in Islamic law, moreover ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as a “fake caliph,” and pledge of allegiance to him is ‘haram.’ With Baghdadi health state unknown, he might still be serious wounded or worse, timing by Mullah Omar to come out and claim his seat as the rightfully owner of the title could be indicative for a not yet noticed by many of a (slowly) weakening Daesh – pursued to be defeated by the Western and regional players/ forces -, could well be preparations to fill the void. Now we need to wait for Omar’s Eid statement and see if al

Cees: Intel to Rent Page 3 of 11 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Zawahiri or others reflect Omar’s wordings and claim, as done before. It’s not over yet.)

Thinking outside the Box: First and fore most contrary to public knowledge Al Qaida is far from defeat, it may be disrupted I here you say, maybe a bit, also it is been dismantled since the rice of Daesh and the self declared caliph Ibrahim, far from it. It’s What many of us are likely not willing to see, as we are told otherwise is that the current events in the Middle East and Africa, yes and to some extend in Central-South Asia are still permissive for Al Qaida’s long term plan.

Let me explain. A decade ago AQSL long-term Seven stage plan – the so-called 2020 plan became known to the public. In a twist the plan foresaw the Arabic uprising, the establishing of a Caliph and an expending of the Jihad to follow, as far as dar –al-Harb: the house of unbeliever: the Western Nations. Today we see a lot of the afore taking place be it not all under the AQSL flag, its Daesh today many of us say. Beside that being a fact; however AQ and its main affiliates are still strategically perfect position to be able to coordinate and have presence in critical areas of the theatres. And we could argue if Daesh is in the AQSL plan part of consolidating the phase: caliphate. The many formed coalitions intended to call a halt to expending Daesh in a way supports AQSL intent. Moreover in the likely event that Daesh will come to a halt and be dissolved in a way or the other AQSL could and will fill the void. And continue with their plan and use the many fighters left on the battlefields.

AQSL and Daesh pursue both the same strategic objective: Global Muslim-Sunni Islam hegemony. The strategy to get there differ, AQSL see the first objective to stop the “Far” western influence and presence as step one followed by the “Near” the apostate rulers and the

Cees: Intel to Rent Page 4 of 11 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Shia Muslim populations. For Daesh it is the other way around. The World lead Islamic nations; Iran-Shia and Saudi Arabia-Sunni are both involved in more than one way or the other, and although denied it will contribute to sectarian violence and in the long run their today’s actions fulfils some of AQSL requirements’; as there is to gain a standing army. Not at least to say it will contribute to sectarian divide and worse they could hand up in each others hairs; part of AQSL “Near phase…

With hotspots sparkling up all over the place, a focus on Daesh and growing Iran- and other Sunni countries tension on the rise, it seems that AQSL is off the focus. This in itself is a dangerous development. Be it through to the fact that in many places we have no boots and solid intelligence structure on the ground – anymore, withdrawal etc - in the regions, or to the fact that Daesh is in the focus. This lack of tools and focus gives AQSL and it’s affiliates much room to manoeuvre: un-noticed. As we in the West have a hard time grasping the undercurrent of today’s events, let alone the impact of the phenomena of the “Caliph” on the region and western foreign fighters, we still have no agreed strategy to address. To the later we still have no grasp on the radicalisation at the home front where apparently the talks on the “kitchen table” and family and friends are main contributors to it. Moreover they and the returnees could become the “fifth columns for the next phase of the plan, and AQSL knows. The problem is not Daesh alone it’s much more complex, diverse and we need to understand fast as they start knocking on our western doors.

Worse even today we have not defined, and agreed what the threat exactly is, who we fight and how to address in a comprehensive way. Our previous and current actions have led to strange things – even unlawfully, as there is an Arab Coalition invading in a sovereign country like Yemen without any formal mandate. Additionally reluctance to have western boots on the ground have led us to deal with so-called “moderates” or other” militias the past and even presence has shown that’s not the smartest thing to do, we do it anyway. Finally we underestimate our enemy.

C: They say those who forget history are doomed to repeat it again, al-Qaida had spent nearly 20 years building up contacts and cells in Sudan, other parts of Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia and beyond. -Ahmed Rashid

The truth is that, in many countries in the Muslim world, Isis may have sympathisers but it does not yet have well-established roots. . Well before the attacks, however, al-Qaeda had spent nearly 20 years building up contacts and cells in Sudan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Ahmed Rashid December 10, 2014

The problem is that intelligence agencies are now looking for Isis under every bed. The truth — mercifully — is that it has not yet arrived. But what remain present are extremist groups with deep roots in the local soil, and these are just as dangerous. Ahmed Rashid December 10, 2014

“It’s (AQ) not on the run, and that ideology is actually, it’s sadly, it feels like it’s exponentially growing,” Former, DIA Director Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn. “My belief—core al Qaeda is the ideology.”

“We have not defeated the idea. We do not even understand the idea.”Maj. Gen. Michael K. Nagata, commander of American Special Operations forces in the Middle East

Cees: Intel to Rent Page 5 of 11 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Recently retired Gen. Keith Alexander, “We’re at greater risk,” he said. “Look at the way al-Qaida networks. From al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, and now in Syria, the al-Nusra front..

Jan 01, Egypt President, "corpus of [Islamic] texts and ideas that we have sacralised over the years" are "antagonizing the entire world"; that it is not "possible that 1.6 billion people [reference to the world's Muslims] should want to kill the rest of the world's inhabitants—that is 7 billion—so that they themselves may live"; and that Egypt (or the Islamic world in its entirety) "is being torn, it is being destroyed, it is being lost—and it is being lost by our own hands."

**

Comment From a friend to the aforementioned; The gap between what needs to be done, what the means are to accomplish them, and political will remains insurmountable without leadership.  As a consequence, extremist influence and sectarian conflict will continue to grow and the problem more deeply rooted.  The lesson to be learned:  Indications and Warning are meaningless without engaged leadership.   I perceive NO effort to rally public opinion necessary to devote the enormous resources necessary to address these serious problems; consequently, there will be no mobilization to pursue a comprehensive approach-like solution.   The judgment:  There is no appetite for preemptive action; the military remains the main deployable element of power; comprehensive approach is very expensive and is not seriously entertained.   The Concern: When humanitarian situations become severe, the military will be called to intervene when it is too late, and without a clear comprehensive strategy it means Disaster.  ** Regards Cees

Cees: Intel to Rent Page 6 of 11 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Is al-Qaida's Long-Held Afghan Strategy Now Unfolding? Bin Laden's strategic goal of ensuring "the pious Caliphate will start from Afghanistan."The Seven Phases of al-Qaida By BILL ROGGIO August 15, 2005 6:38 AM With the fourth anniversary of the hot war between al-Qaida and the West approaching, it is interesting to see how al-Qaida’s strategy and objectives have evolved since the United States committed to engaging in open warfare.The Word Unheard points us to an article in Spiegel Online by a Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein, who is believed to be a reliable source of information on al-Qaida. His main source for this article on al-Qaida strategy is none other than Saif al-Adel, al-Qaida’s military commander who is currently operating from Iran.Al-Qaida’s purported strategy can be broken down into seven “phases” which span from 2000 until 2020, at which time they believe the global Islamist Caliphate will be established and they will achieve “definitive victory.” Here are the phases, which are followed by commentary when appropriate.The First Phase Known as “the awakening” -- this has already been carried out and was supposed to have lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003. The aim of the attacks of 9/11 was to provoke the US into declaring war on the Islamic world and thereby “awakening” Muslims. “The first phase was judged by the strategists and masterminds behind al-Qaida as very successful,” writes Hussein. “The battle field was opened up and the Americans and their allies became a closer and easier target.” The terrorist network is also reported as being satisfied that its message can now be heard “everywhere.”Al-Qaida can claim some success in the First Phase, as the organization is now the preeminent terrorist organization on the planet. The attacks of September 11 were cheered throughout the Islamic world. The global media disseminates al-Qaida commander’s speeches. Each and every terrorist attack is followed by suspicious of al-Qaida involvement. And the U.S. did indeed bring the war to the Islamic world in Afghanistan and Iraq, however not against Islam itself. But this came at a price, as Islamist Afghanistan and friendly Saddam-governed Iraq were lost.The Second Phase “Opening Eyes” is, according to Hussein’s definition, the period we are now in and should last until 2006. Hussein says the terrorists hope to make the western conspiracy aware of the “Islamic community.” Hussein believes this is a phase in which al-Qaida wants an organization to develop into a movement. The network is banking on recruiting young men during this period. Iraq should become the center for all global operations, with an “army” set up there and bases established in other Arabic states.So far, the Second Phase has been a failure. The Arab and greater Islamic Street has been essentially silent in its support of al-Qaida. The perception that al-Qaida’s cause is popular as hundreds of Islamists enter Iraq monthly is overshadowed by the tens of thousands of Islamic fighters who enter Afghanistan during the war with the Soviet Union. Al-Qaida has generated new recruits, but not nearly enough to replace the experienced operators and managers that have been lost under the American onslaught in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.Winning the Second Phase is important from an ideological standpoint. Defeat in Iraq would seriously harm the credibility of al-Qaida and weaken their mystique. They would possess a losing ideology that could not stand up to the Great Satan. Allah would have abandoned them to the privations of the infidel.The Third Phase This is described as “Arising and Standing Up” and should last from 2007 to 2010. “There will be a focus on Syria,” prophesies Hussein, based on what his sources told him. The fighting cadres are supposedly already prepared and some are in Iraq. Attacks on

Cees: Intel to Rent Page 7 of 11 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Turkey and -- even more explosive -- in Israel are predicted. Al-Qaida’s masterminds hope that attacks on Israel will help the terrorist group become a recognized organization. The author also believes that countries neighboring Iraq, such as Jordan, are also in danger.

The Fourth Phase Between 2010 and 2013, Hussein writes that al-Qaida will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that “the creeping loss of the regimes’ power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaida.” At the same time attacks will be carried out against oil suppliers and the US economy will be targeted using cyber terrorism.The Third and Fourth Phases can essentially be condensed. The potential spread of jihad and instability to Iraq’s neighbors of Turkey, Syria, (and while not mentioned, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait) as well as Israel highlights the importance of an American victory in Iraq. Iraq, as a failed state, would provide al-Qaida a base to create instability in bordering countries, setting the stage for overthrow by the Islamists.It should be noted that Syria is playing a dangerous game by allowing al-Qaida to use its soil to conduct operations in Iraq. The jihadis are developing contacts, networks and obtaining recruits, which can eventually by turned against the Asad regime.For the record, it seems al Qaida has already laid the groundwork for the Third and Fourth Phases. There are reports al Qaida seeks to establish itself in Gaza to strike Israel, and Turkish vacation spots, including cruise ships are believed to have been the target of a just-foiled al Qaida plot. Islamic countries have been the target of numerous al Qaida attacks {see flash presentation, 2M download), and Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have been in open war with al Qaida for several years. Saudi oil facilities have been a target throughout.The United States will not allow another Islamic state to fall to al-Qaida’s ideologues. The lesson of September 11 serves as a reminder of what happened when Afghanistan became a sanctuary and de facto al-Qaida state.The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaida hopes that by then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order.The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a period of “total confrontation.” As soon as the caliphate has been declared the “Islamic army” it will instigate the “fight between the believers and the non-believers” which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as “definitive victory.” Hussein writes that in the terrorists’ eyes, because the rest of the world will be so beaten down by the “one-and-a-half million Muslims,” the caliphate will undoubtedly succeed. This phase should be completed by 2020, although the war shouldn’t last longer than two years.Phases Five, Six, and Seven are merely the dreams of al-Qaida, as the prospects for al-Qaida’s success in phases One thru Fourth are looking grim at the moment. Despite media portrayal of defeat in Iraq, the Iraqi people are fighting the insurgency and the Anbar region is set to be reduced as an al-Qaida rear area. The jewel of al-Qaida, Afghanistan, fell almost four years ago, and al-Qaida and its Taliban allies have not come even close to retaining control. There are rumors of a serious rift between al-Qaida and the Taliban, as the Taliban believes its woes were created by closely allying themselves with Osama’s cause.However, in the event of the United State loses its political will and pursues a policy of isolation from the Muslim world, an inevitable showdown with al-Qaida would ensue. Open confrontation with the West, as well as the possibility of a nuclear armed Caliphate, would

Cees: Intel to Rent Page 8 of 11 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

bring the full military might of the Western World (those who value their freedom). The current operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa, Southeast and Central Asia and within the borders of Western nations would be tame in comparison to what would come. The Japanese, Germans, and Italians discovered in World War II the price of wakening the American military psyche.The West would basically have two options: (1) blitzkrieg 21st Century style - the full mobilization of its military and an accompanying sweep of the Islamic crescent, without regards for Politically Correct warfare; (2) nuclear war. Both campaigns would be designed to fully eliminate the Islamist threat, and the Muslim infrastructure, which allowed for the rise of al-Qaida’s ideology.

Al-Qaida’s Seven Rules for the Effective Terrorist. ISIS is breaking all of them. It will live to regret it. The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has scaring the hell out of everyone. It has infested Syria, overrun Iraq, alarmed Iran, and convinced U.S. politicians it’s the most dangerous terrorist organization ever. But frightening everyone isn’t a long-term growth strategy. ISIS is destroying itself. (As I mentioned before, Cees) Al-Qaida, the organization from which ISIS recently split, understands this truth. For years, Osama Bin Laden and his lieutenants tried to explain to their affiliates the folly of unchecked brutality. In letters and directives captured in the 2011 raid on his compound, Bin Laden stressed the importance of patience, discretion, and public opinion. His advice, boiled down to seven rules, forms a clear outline of ISIS’s mistakes.1. Don’t fight civil wars. Bin Laden recognized that battling for territory against local governments was a lousy way to get to theocracy. In a 2010 letter, he explained why this wouldn’t work in Yemen: As for the local enemy, such as if the Yemenis were to begin a long battle against the security services, this is a matter that will weigh on the people. As time goes by, they will begin to feel that some of them have been killed and they will start to want to stop the fighting. This would promote the ideology of secular governments that raise the motto of pleasing all sides. ISIS rejects this rule. It calls itself a state. It measures its progress in territory. It’s trying to control as many as 40,000 square miles with an estimated 10,000 fighters. Meanwhile, the parties that have won seats in the new Iraqi parliament are scrambling to form a government that can appease all sides and pacify the country, just as Bin Laden anticipated.2. Don’t kill civilians. That was Bin Laden’s principal regret. He called for guidelines that would instruct jihadists to avoid “unnecessary civilian casualties.” Mass bombings in mosques and other public places, he lamented, had resulted in “the alienation of most of the nation from the Mujahidin.” ISIS spurns this guidance. It has slaughtered civilians in Syria and Iraq, according to Human Rights Watch and the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights. It targets not just enemy soldiers but anyone who has worked for the government. In Syria, an important cleric renounced ISIS because it blew up children and other civilians. In Iraq, Baathists fighting alongside ISIS have promised to restrain it from killing “innocent people.”3. Don’t flaunt your bloodlust. One of the captured al-Qaida letters, believed to have been written by Bin Laden or his aide, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, urges al-Qaida’s Yemeni affiliate to “stay away from words that will affect the people’s support to the mujahidin.” The letter says the group must “carefully write our statements in order to avoid all accusation against us from the enemy, who accuse us of being animals and killers.” ISIS has earned and roused enemies with reckless haste. ISIS advertises its savagery. It chops off people’s heads. It vows to kill every Shiite. It posts videos in which captives are shot dead and moving cars are machine-gunned. A week ago, ISIS uploaded photos purporting to show its fighters executing

Cees: Intel to Rent Page 9 of 11 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

1,700 captured Iraqi soldiers. “The filthy Shiites are killed in the hundreds,” said one caption. “The liquidation of the Shiites who ran away from their military bases,” said another. “This is the destiny of Maliki’s Shiites,” said a third. “Look at them walking to death on their own feet,” said a fourth. It’s hard to imagine propaganda better designed to repulse the public and galvanize the enemy.4. Don’t rule harshly. Bin Laden was a theocratic fundamentalist, but he cautioned his allies to avoid the “alienation from harshness” that was “taking over the public opinion.” The worst offender was Somalia’s al-Shabab. In a 2011 letter, Bin Laden urged Atiyah to “send advice to the brothers in Somalia about the benefit of doubt when it comes to dealing with crimes and applying Shari’a, similar to what the prophet (PBUH) said, to use doubts to fend off the punishments.” When ISIS captures a city, it follows this rule at first. But soon, the nice-guy act disappears. The group seizes property and humanitarian aid. It executes Christian and Muslim “apostates.” Two days after taking Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, ISIS banned booze and cigarettes, instructed women to stay home, and announced that government employees who failed to repent would be put to death. This behavior antagonizes Sunni fighters who have collaborated with ISIS. “In some areas that ISIS has taken they are killing our people, they are imposing their Islamic laws on us,” one tribal leader told the New York Times. “We do not want that.” 5. Don’t claim territory unless you can feed the people. In his 2010 letter, Bin Laden warned: The issue of providing for basic needs is a matter that must be taken into consideration before taking control of nations or cities. If a controlling force, that enjoys the support of the majority where it has taken control, fails to provide for the basic needs of the people, it will lose their support and will find itself in a difficult position that will grow increasingly difficult with each passing day. People will not bear seeing their children die as a consequence of a lack of food or medicine. ISIS pays no heed to this guidance. Its founding literature says that for people who fall under its dominion, “improving their conditions is less important than the condition of their religion.” In Fallujah, a city ISIS has controlled for six months, the Red Cross reports “a severe shortage of food, water and health care.”6. Don’t fight with your allies. Bin Laden tried to rein in the fratricidal belligerence of ISIS’s precursor organization, al-Qaida in Iraq. He asked his associates to “resolve any conflicts between all of the Jihadi entities in Iraq.” He cited these conflicts as a lesson for the Yemenis, whom he cautioned against confrontations with potential Muslim partners: Many Iraqis joined the mujahidin against the Americans until some mistakes happened when some of al-Anbar tribe’s children were attacked without a reason of self-defense (they were not a threat to the mujahidin), but they were registering in the security force compound. This attack resulted in the tribe working against the mujahidin. The lesson is lost on ISIS. It refused to cooperate with al-Qaida’s Syrian affiliate, the Nusra Front. It attacks other Syrian rebels. On June 8, ISIS bombed Kurdish offices in Iraq. On June 22, it destroyed the homes of members of a Baathist organization that has been crucial to ISIS’s success in Iraq. It also killed family members of a leader of another Iraqi Islamic militant group. Now some of the Baathists are fighting ISIS, and Kurdish militiamen are helping the Iraqi Army recapture towns.7. Don’t alarm your enemies prematurely. In 2010, Bin Laden advised his followers in Yemen not to escalate the war there, in part because “the emergence of a force in control of the Mujahidin in Yemen is a matter that provokes our enemies internationally and locally and puts them on a great state of alert.” The Saudi rulers, once alerted, would “pump huge funds into recruiting the Yemeni tribes to kill us. They will win over the swords of the majority, which will put the Mujahidin force in Yemen under enemy fire” at a time when “the capabilities of our brothers there are not yet such that they can enter this sort of struggle.”ISIS displays no such patience. It has earned and roused enemies with reckless haste. Its fighters have seized crossing points on the Syrian and Jordanian borders. They attacked the

Cees: Intel to Rent Page 10 of 11 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Turkish consulate in Mosul, carting away staff members and their families, purportedly for “investigations.” They seized 31 Turkish truck drivers, reportedly demanding $5 million in ransom. They attacked a revered Shiite shrine in Samarra. In three days, they raced hundreds of miles from Mosul to Baghdad, vowing to “invade the Shia in their homes.”Now the Syrian military, which had previously steered clear of ISIS, is bombing ISIS militants in Iraq. Thousands of Shiites are signing up to reinforce the Iraqi Army. The United States and Iran—sworn enemies for decades—are exploring a limited partnership to stymie ISIS’s advance. Political factions are trying to organize a multiethnic government in Baghdad. The Turkish government is almost certainly drawing up plans to strike back. ISIS is creating a war between itself on one side, and every Iraqi constituency and adjoining country on the other. That’s not chaos. It’s unity. We’ve been here before. Eight years ago, jihadists in Iraq made the same mistakes. (And al Zawahiri knows and therefore warned as I mentioned before, Cees) They alienated the public and were driven out by tribes that had fought alongside them. They’ve returned as ISIS only because Iraq’s government persecuted Sunnis and ignored the tribes. Now the (ISIS) jihadists are back to doing what they do best: destroying lives, communities, and themselves.

Mix of radical ideas and idealism drives Europeans to join global jihad; Gilles de Kerchove: (coordinator of counter-terrorism efforts among EU member states; where we start being concerned is when, and that is what we understand, many of them are mainly joining the groups affiliated to Al-Qaida and groups which not only want to withdraw Assad but have the global jihad rhetoric and share fully the project of Al-Qaida

New al Qaida document sheds light on Europe, U.S. attack plans; A previously secret document found at Osama bin Laden's compound in Pakistan sets out a detailed al Qaida strategy for attacking targets in Europe and the United States.

Ayman al-Zawahiri, has repeatedly threatened Europe; In September 2006 he appeared in a video website on the fifth anniversary of the 11 September attacks, urging to punish France as prime target for Islamist militants. Pierre de Bousquet de Florian, then head of the DST (domestic security service), said the threat of terrorist attack in France remained "very high and very international". // After the beginning of Arab Spring, the terrorist Al-Qaida organization has undergone an important change in strategy. As a result of that change, Al-Qaida has excluded the United States and other Western powers, which it previously considered as “far enemy,” from its new strategy. Instead, the group has focused on the “near enemy,” that is the Arab countries in the region Ayman Al-Zawahiri.

The Caliphate Conference. Cairo. May 1926. The World Muslim Congress Makkah June-July 1926; Shaikh Muhammad al-Ahmadi al-Zawahiri, head of the Egyptian delegation: The grandfather of Ayman al-Zawahri the current leader of Al Qaida. "In the examination of theological questions which were submitted to us, we did not wish to resort to ijtihad and to establish a new doctrine. We confined ourselves to examining the principles admitted by the recognized doctrines of Islam. As for the applicability of these principles, it is for you to declare that that is beyond our competence." "I am advocating neither a new doctrine nor ijtihad. What I seek is your opinion. If you affirm principles which are not susceptible of application in our epoch, what will be the circumstances?"

Our problem of understanding; If we pay a close attention to the sayings of the Prophet we will see that this situation of the Muslim world was predicted and is not really matter of surprise.

Cees: Intel to Rent Page 11 of 11 15/04/2023