+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

Date post: 13-Apr-2017
Category:
Upload: cees-de-waart
View: 106 times
Download: 1 times
Share this document with a friend
20
C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122- Russia-10-64 Mark Brzezinski, a former United States ambassador to Sweden, said, “Any militarization undercuts the peaceful underpinnings” of the eight-member Arctic Council that includes the United States. Russia Russia will increase its Black Sea fleet with more than 80 new warships by 2020 and will complete a second naval base for the fleet near the city of Novorossiysk by 2016 Romanian officials said they are pressing the alliance not to forget about its southeastern border as it goes about reinforcing the northeastern one. Vice Admiral Alexander Vitko said a second Black Sea base was needed in addition to the main base on the Crimea peninsula annexed from Ukraine because of NATO expansion. The chief of the Russian armed forces’ General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, said that the next strategic command staff exercise will be held in western Russia in 2017. Gerasimov stated: "Strategic command staff exercises are held annually. The next, codenamed Zapad-2017 (West-2017) will take place in the west of the country." Tue Sep 23, 2014 Russia will add 80 new warships to Black Sea Fleet by 2020: fleet commander By Vladimir Soldatkin | NOVOROSSIYSK Russia NOVOROSSIYSK Russia Russia will increase its Black Sea fleet with more than 80 new warships by 2020 and will complete a second naval base for the fleet near the city of Novorossiysk by 2016, its commander said on Tuesday. In comments made to President Vladimir Putin as he visited the port city, Vice Admiral Alexander Vitko said a second Black Sea base was needed in addition to the main base on the Crimea peninsula annexed from Ukraine because of NATO expansion. "Eighty ships and other vessels are expected to arrive (in Novorossiysk) before 2020. The Black Sea Fleet will have 206 ships and vessels by 2020," Vitko told Putin. "NATO ships are constantly present in the Black Sea and it plans to establish a naval base in the Black Sea," he added. NATO has regularly conducted naval exercises in the Black Sea, especially since Russia annexed Crimea, populated mainly by ethnic 1 The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston Churchill Cees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 20 05/07/2022
Transcript
Page 1: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

Mark Brzezinski, a former United States ambassador to Sweden, said, “Any militarization undercuts the peaceful underpinnings” of the eight-member Arctic Council that includes the United States.

Russia Russia will increase its Black Sea fleet with more than 80 new warships by 2020 and will complete a second naval base for the fleet near the city of Novorossiysk by 2016

Romanian officials said they are pressing the alliance not to forget about its southeastern border as it goes about reinforcing the northeastern one.

Vice Admiral Alexander Vitko said a second Black Sea base was needed in addition to the main base on the Crimea peninsula annexed from Ukraine because of NATO expansion.

The chief of the Russian armed forces’ General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, said that the next strategic command staff exercise will be held in western Russia in 2017. Gerasimov stated: "Strategic command staff exercises are held annually. The next, codenamed Zapad-2017 (West-2017) will take place in the west of the country."

Tue Sep 23, 2014 Russia will add 80 new warships to Black Sea Fleet by 2020: fleet commanderBy Vladimir Soldatkin | NOVOROSSIYSK Russia NOVOROSSIYSK Russia Russia will increase its Black Sea fleet with more than 80 new warships by 2020 and will complete a second naval base for the fleet near the city of Novorossiysk by 2016, its commander said on Tuesday. In comments made to President Vladimir Putin as he visited the port city, Vice Admiral Alexander Vitko said a second Black Sea base was needed in addition to the main base on the Crimea peninsula annexed from Ukraine because of NATO expansion. "Eighty ships and other vessels are expected to arrive (in Novorossiysk) before 2020.

The Black Sea Fleet will have 206 ships and vessels by 2020," Vitko told Putin. "NATO ships are constantly present in the Black Sea and it plans to establish a naval base in the Black Sea," he added.

NATO has regularly conducted naval exercises in the Black Sea, especially since Russia annexed Crimea, populated mainly by ethnic Russians, in March partly from fear that Ukraine's new pro-Western authorities might try to join the Atlantic alliance. A NATO official told Reuters in Brussels there were no alliance plans to build a Black Sea base but said it already had access to the resources of member states in the region. "Our Black Sea allies have ports that we use from time to time but (there are) no plans to build a "Nato" base as suggested," the official said. Three NATO members have a Black Sea coastline - Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey. The former Soviet republic of Georgia, on the eastern shore of the Black Sea, has sought membership in the past but like Ukraine is very unlikely to be admitted any time soon due to Moscow's fierce opposition to NATO's further eastern expansion.

DEFENSE SPENDING

During NATO exercises in western Ukraine earlier this month, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu promised to boost the number of troops in Crimea. On Tuesday, Shoigu was overseeing Russian military exercises involving 155,000 servicemen in the Far East. He told Putin in a video conference that the army's firepower and assault capabilities had increased lately as part of spending plans for the armed forces set to cost hundreds of billions of dollars. "The firing, assault and maneuver capabilities ... have increased due to the supplies of modern weapons and equipment," Shoigu said. Russia plans to spend 21 trillion rubles ($545 billion) by the end of the decade on refurbishing Russia's armed forces. Some of those funds will be used to improve the defense infrastructure of Crimea. Russia has staged several military exercises this year, including near

1The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 13

03/05/2023

Page 2: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Ukraine's border, which have contributed to the tensions with the West, which sees the increased training as saber rattling amid the persistent disagreements over Ukraine.

Can Allies Counter the Russian Black Sea Fleet? NATO Mulls a PlanThe Wall Street Journal

May 13, 2016 Romania has a newly operational missile defense site, but it wants more.

Romanian officials said they are pressing the alliance not to forget about its southeastern border as it goes about reinforcing the northeastern one. Alliance officials have said in recent days that Poland and the Baltic States are going to get a North Atlantic Treaty Organization force of about 4,000 troops, to be formally approved at the July summit in Warsaw. During a visit Thursday, Romanian officials—in public and in private—pressed for a NATO maritime presence in the Black Sea. They also want alliance troops in Romania. For now the publicly released version of the NATO plan would put 1,000 combat troops each in Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.

For now that plan does not include Romania. “It is important to ensure a credible and predictable presence of allied forces on the eastern flank, but also striking a balance between the northern and southern dimension of the eastern flank,” Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said. U.S. defense officials have said they are planning that their increased rotational presence will mean more regular exercises and presence in both Romania and Bulgaria But the Black Sea force seems to be the most critical request for Romania. Both Prime Minister Dacian Ciolos and Mr. Iohannis raising the issue of creating a standard maritime force for the Black Sea. NATO is open to the Romanian proposal, but officials said they have made clear that the allies on the Black Sea will have to contribute at least the initial force. Romanian officials told NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg they were beginning talks with Bulgaria and Turkey about creating such a maritime force. “They are in dialogue with the littoral countries, and I welcome this,” Mr. Stoltenberg said in an interview Thursday. Mr. Stoltenberg said the issue was under consideration in the alliance headquarters in Brussels and defense planners were examining if a multinational naval force in the Black Sea could “fit into a NATO framework.” If the regional allies can agree, NATO will likely decide whether to have the force serve under the NATO flag and command structure at the July summit. Mr. Stoltenberg said no decision has been made. Russia has reacted negatively to what it sees as a build up of NATO forces on its borders, including a more regular presence of U.S. ships in the Black Sea. There have been several incidents of Russian planes buzzing ships in the Black Sea. The Black Sea has traditionally been dominated by the Russia navy, which operated its fleet out of Crimea, even before Moscow moved to annex the peninsula in 2014. Since that time, U.S. and alliance officials have said that Russia have moved to bolster its surface to air and anti-ship missiles, so called anti-access, area denial capabilities, in Crimea. “We do not seek confrontation,” Mr. Stoltenberg said. “But we have had to respond when we see a more assertive Russia and when we see Russia developing anti-access, area-denial capabilities in the Black Sea.”

Russia to open new naval base in Black Sea to counter NATO

June 29, 2016 Nikolai Litovkin, RBTH The Russian Navy is to open a new base on the Black Sea coast in Novorossiysk hosting Varshavyanka class Project 636.6 diesel-electric submarines with Kalibr cruise missiles. However, there are still some weather-based issues to be resolved. The Russian Defense Ministry is completing the construction of the final three submarine berths in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk (930 miles south of Moscow). According to a RBTH source in the military-industrial complex, the Black Sea

2The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 2 of 13

03/05/2023

Page 3: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Fleet's new base will host six Varshavyanka class Project 636.6 submarines. "Currently, three of them are already in the city's harbor – the Rostov-on-Don, Novorossiysk and Stary Oskol," said the RBTH source. "Each submarine is equipped with underwater torpedoes to combat surface ships and Kalibr missiles, which have demonstrated their combat power in Syria, including the ability to hit targets at a distance of up to 2,500 km."

According to the source, the decision to deploy an additional base on the Black Sea was made in connection with the increased activity of NATO warships in the past few years."The deployment of Varshavyanka class Project 636.6) submarines in Novorossiysk allows Russia to control potential threats in Europe and the Middle East," said the source.

‘Unique opportunities’ Initially, the new base on the Black Sea coast was being built because of disagreements in Russian-Ukrainian relations after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the period since 1991, the naval base in Crimea was handed over to Moscow on a lease, but any fleet update (to the very last bullet – RBTH) had to be coordinated with the parliament in Kiev. According to the TASS news agency's military expert Viktor Litovkin, Ukraine's policy after the collapse of the Soviet Union boiled down to squeezing Russia out of Crimea, but since the takeover of the peninsula by Moscow in 2014, the situation has changed and a full-scale reform of the fleet has begun. "Sevastopol Bay offers unique opportunities to Moscow," said Litovkin. "Together with the new base in Novorossiysk, Russia can fully control the Bosphorus, the military infrastructure in Bulgaria, as well as neutralizing the threat of a U.S. missile defense base in Romania." According to Alexander Khramchikhin, director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, a Moscow think-tank, the key threat of the U.S. missile defense system in Eastern Europe to Russia is the ability to instantly convert a missile defense base into an offensive one.

Pros and cons The strength of the new base's location for the Black Sea Fleet is the possibility to distribute ships and submarines between several naval bases in the same region, say analysts. However, the base in Novorossiysk has a crucial issue that still needs to be resolved. "First of all, it’s about climatic conditions," Litovkin told RBTH. "The maritime area of Novorossiysk is regularly subjected to the impact of northern winds from the Caucasus Mountains, which hit ships and houses in their path with great force. “The wind can throw ships ashore and destroy the entire military infrastructure. The base is being constructed in such a way that the gusts of wind will not be so catastrophic." According to him, Russia is building an additional tunnel in the Caucasus Mountains to nullify the threat of destructive winds.

3The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 3 of 13

03/05/2023

Page 4: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Russia’s building of seven military bases and stationing a regiment there raises growing security concerns about the Arctic’s future. Speaking Monday at the Atlantic Council, a Washington, D.C., think tank, Mark Brzezinski, a former United States ambassador to Sweden, said, “Any militarization undercuts the peaceful underpinnings” of the eight-member Arctic Council that includes the United States.Melanie Nakagawa, a deputy assistant secretary of State for energy transformation, added the council “has not tackled security” issues historically. The United States is the council’s chair into 2017 when it turns it over to Finland. The council has most often addressed scientific and research question affecting all Arctic nations.But the United States “is not passive … or indifferent” to these Russian moves, he said. Brzezinski added President Barack Obama included a request for $150 million to begin work on a heavy-duty icebreaker, money that will initially go to building the infrastructure for the vessel’s construction. The U.S. Coast Guard has one decades-old heavy-duty icebreaker in service now.Brzezinski said Russia, the United States and other Arctic nations do work together on Coast Guard safety and security issues in the far north. Nakagawa added those issues were among the reasons that Adm. Robert Papp, retired Coast Guard commandant, was named the State Department’s special representative for the Arctic and in anticipation of the United States’ council chairmanship.On the growing importance of Arctic safety issues, he cited the first time passage of a large cruise liner with more than 1,000 passengers aboard transiting the Northwest Passage from Seward, Alaska to New York. “Given the remoteness, it was incumbent upon us to do due diligence on disaster recovery and relief.”Brzezinski said the Department of Homeland Security and other nations conducted exercises in how they would respond to an emergency involving a liner. They “walked the walk.” As Arctic ice continues to melt, “we’ll see more of these larger ships” transiting the passage.The council also is looking at how nations would respond to disasters such as a huge Arctic oil spill. Cathleen Kelly, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, said, “Look at what happened in the Gulf Coast” with the explosion in 2010 of the Deepwater Horizon rig and how long it took to bring that spill under control. Working in the Arctic is “incredibly difficult” because of high running seas and harsh weather conditions. Complicating matters, the region doesn’t have the infrastructure of ports and roads to act quickly or on a large scale. “We just wouldn’t be able to get that kind of response” as in the Gulf of Mexico into a region where the Interior Department said a spill is likely, she said.Brzezinski said more nations are recognizing that what happens in the Arctic has a direct impact on them — e.g. climate change, rising sea levels, loss of permafrost affecting the atmosphere. Twenty-five countries, including Singapore and China, participated in a recent United States conference on collaborating on research and science efforts in the Arctic. He added that Washington and Russia continue to collaborate in these efforts. “We were glad they participated.”

Russia’s Drills Update, Oct 2016The following is a list detailing Russia's military drills during October:[1]

Admiral Kuznetsov Aircraft CarrierKremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, currently en route to Syria, will unlikely be involved in exerting control over the skies over Syria. Peskov said: “I do not think that it is necessary to keep somebody away, [or that] somebody can attack [the Syrian government forces] … as there are enough instruments to control the skies, to control the safety of our temporary infrastructure in Syria, which is why there is no such opportunity." (Sputniknews.com, October 22)

4The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 4 of 13

03/05/2023

Page 5: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

On October 15, Russia's Northern Fleet’s press service said that a group of warships headed by the aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov accompanied by the Pyotr Veliky (Peter the Great) heavy nuclear missile cruiser, the Severomorsk and Vice-Admiral Kulakov anti-submarine destroyer, and support vessels was sent to the Mediterranean to hold drills and strengthen capabilities. The Admiral Kuznetsov carries deck-based Su-33 and Su-25 aircraft, as well as Ka-27/Ka29 helicopters.The group of vessels conducted three-day exercises in the Northern Sea 273 kilometers away from the Norwegian coast. The drills involved practice flights of the carrier’s aircraft. The exercises were closely monitored by the HNoMS Fridtjof Nansen, a frigate of the Norwegian navy.The following images show the Admiral Kuznetsov travelling through the English channel:

Polar RegionDate: OctoberPlace: Pechengsky district of the Murmansk Region (Polar Region)Troops and Equipment: Over 5,000 troops, more than 500 pieces of armor and vehicular hardware.During the drill, the troops were tasked with repelling attacks by “the notional enemy’s subversive groups while en route and practicing air defense and required actions in cases where the enemy employs weapons of mass destruction.” Additionally, during the drills, the troops will prepare for defensive actions and offensive attacks.[3]

Central Military DistrictDate: OctoberPlace: Samara regionTroops and Equipment: 1,500 military servicemen from the Central Military District's (CMD) peacekeeping brigadeServicemen from the peacekeeping brigade of the CMD have been put on alert in the Samara region as a snap check began. The local military press service stated: "The troops have carried out a march to the specific areas at the Roshchinsky military shooting range. The peacekeepers will train in fighting provocations and tricks of the conflicting parties aimed at destabilizing any situation. The drills involve more than 1,500 military servicemen and 400 units of military hardware." During the drills, the peacekeepers will guard important facilities (the municipality building, a school, a kindergarten, hospitals and a railway station) in a simulated settlement.[4]

SiberiaDate: OctoberPlace: Western and Southern SiberiaTroops and equipment: 20.000 servicemen. The equipment involves motorized infantry, tank and artillery units, crews of Tolmachevo airbase, divisions of S-300 and S-400 air defense systems, task forces and specialists of all kinds of support.[5]More than 20 000 servicemen participated in a snap check in the Central Military district – the snap check is supposed to conclude the 2016 training year. The five-days drills were held mainly in

5The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 5 of 13

03/05/2023

Page 6: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Western and Southern Siberia, while according to the operational scenario the combined forces should act in a Central Asian strategic direction.[6] According to CMD Colonel Yaroslav Roschupkin, assistant to the commander, during the drills, special attention was paid to intercepting and destroying targets, imitating "jihad-vehicles" which are used extensively by terror groups in the Middle East and Southern Asia.[7]

Western Military DistrictDate: OctoberPlace: Luzhsky practice range in the Western Military District (WMD)Troops and equipment: 100 servicemen, more than 20 pieces of combat hardware of a WMD’s missile formation.Crews manning Russia’s Iskander-M tactical missile systems held drills in the Western Military District as part of a final check for the 2016 training year. The district’s press office stated: "During the check, the district’s command assessed the commanders’ ability to make independent decisions under various conditions as well as the practical skills of Iskander-M crews in preparing the missile systems for firing and performing single and multiple electronic missile launches against targets imitating a notional enemy’s command posts and radar stations located at a distance of several hundred kilometers."[8] Eastern Military DistrictThe Eastern Military District (EMD) command reported that during the year 2016 the assigned aviation unit has conducted more than 300 tactical trainings, including at least 150 drills involving live launch of bombs and missiles as well as guided munitions and precision weapons.[9]The EMD Sukhoi Su-34 pilot crews performed flights to the stratosphere. The crews also trained nocturnal flight navigation and drilled bombing attacks against ground targets at one of the local test ranges.[10]Endnotes: [1] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No.[2] Ria.ru, October 17, 2016.[3] Tass.com, October 18, 2016.[4] Tass.com, October 18, 2016.[5] Tass.com, October 18, 2016.[6] Ria.ru, October 17, 2016.[7] Ria.ru, October 20, 2016.[8] Tass.com, October 20, 2016.[9] Ria.ru, October 17, 2016.

[10] Tass.com, October 14, 2016.

2017 Strategic Command Staff Exercise And Kavkaz 2016 DrillsName: Kavkaz 2016 (Caucasus 2016)Date: September 5-10Location: Southern Military DistrictNumber of Troops: 12, 500Military equipment: 15 warships, 400 pieces of major military equipment, which included more than 100 aircraft and helicopters) and 15 warships were used.Previous exercises: Zapad-2013 (West-2013), Vostok-2014 (East-2014), Centr-2015 (Center-2015)The chief of the Russian armed forces’ General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, said that the next strategic

6The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 6 of 13

03/05/2023

Page 7: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

command staff exercise will be held in western Russia in 2017. Gerasimov stated: "Strategic command staff exercises are held annually. The next, codenamed Zapad-2017 (West-2017) will take place in the west of the country."Gerasimov also commented on the preliminary results of the strategic command-and-staff exercise Kavkaz-2016, which was conducted in the Southern Military District (SMD), including Crimea and on the Black and Caspian Seas, on September 5-10.[1]   The Russian Defense Ministry reported that the drill was intended to verify the readiness level of the military command bodies to control subordinate force groups.  Kavkaz -2016 was notable for: the organization of troop control at all levels, tactical encounters with a simulated enemy on the other side of the barricade, testing new military equipment under field conditions, organization of mobilization and territorial defense, extensive employment of aviation and maritime forces of the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian flotilla. As part of the strategic command-and-staff exercise, formations and units of the Land Forces, the Aerospace Forces, the Navy and the Airborne Troops practiced tactical encounters at the Southern MD ranges.[2]  The Russian Defense Ministry's press-service said: "The Kavkaz-2016 exercise is the final phase of a package of command staff and special practices and drills for military command bodies and snap checks of troops' combat readiness due in 2016..."[3] It is worth noting that more than 120,000 troops, members of federal ministries and agencies and also specialists of the Central Bank of Russia were involved consecutively, at different periods in the Southern, Central and Western military districts. However, as Gerasimov previously stated, in the territory of the Southern Military District no more than 12,500 troops were involved in the exercise at any one time.[4]  Assessing the Black Sea fleet drills results during Kavkaz 2016, Gerasimov stressed that the Black Sea fleet is capable of exterminating any enemy even before the enemy leaves his permanent location bases in the Black Sea. Gerasimov said: "The Black Sea fleet possesses every possible means for that purpose – surveillance systems, which track the targets from 500 kilometers, fire assets. Take the Bastions system for example – it has a 350 kilometers (range). It reaches everything including the Bosporus". He added that until recently the fleet's capabilities were lower than the Turkish fleet's capabilities in the Black Sea. "Several years ago the Russian fleet's combat capabilities were in stark contrast to that of the Turkish Navy. Some even said that Turkey was in full command of the Black Sea. Now it's different," Gerasimov said.[5]  He also stated that the Black Sea Fleet was reinforced by submarines carrying the Kalibr missile system. Gerasimov also said that Russia's Black Sea Fleet is capable of destroying a potential enemy's amphibious force in the ports of embarkation. "The Black Sea Fleet should be able - and it has already demonstrated this capability - to destroy a potential enemy's amphibious force on the way, starting from the ports of embarkation," Gerasimov said. An enemy landing force should not be allowed to reach Crimea's coast, "wherever it may come from," Gerasimov added.[6]Regarding the operational scenario in the Black Sea and Crimea the observer may get to the conclusion that Russia gets ready to repel attack on Crimea. The operational scenario was described as follows: "The Western [countries] begin the offensive against the Northern Federation", reach naval and air superiority for three days and attempt to seize ground positions of the defending army in order to place the 'Southwestern republics' under Western control.[7]However, Gerasimov stressed that the drills were not targeted at Ukraine. Nevertheless, in planning and holding the military exercise, the Russian Defense Ministry took the US and Georgian joint drills, which conducted their own games alongside Kavkaz-2016, into account. Gerasimov said: "True, we took into account the US-Georgian exercise, bearing in mind that fifteen hundred troops were participating in them. We made allowances for their actions." It was also reported that Gerasimov stressed that Kavkaz-2016 attracted attention from foreign intelligence services, including those of NATO members.[8]

7The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 7 of 13

03/05/2023

Page 8: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Gerasimov added: "The southwestern strategic direction is a priority. First, the North Caucasus Military District, and later the Southern Military District - have been and remain a priority. They are the first to get advanced weapons and gear." The Western MD motorized rifle regiment located in the Moscow Region has eliminated a simulated enemy on the other side of the Don River during Kavkaz 2016. The servicemen overcame 500 meters of water and captured the other bank of the river. Helicopters of the army aviation covered the troops from the air. Having reached the other side of the river, the motorized rifle units engaged the simulated enemy capturing the bridgehead to ensure the crossing of the Don by the main forces. (Source: Mil.ru, September 7, 2016) Kaliningrad RegionThe Western Command District (WCD) started military drills in the Kaliningrad region. Shore-based forces of the Baltic fleet prepared to destroy with missiles and rockets the command and control centers, infantry, and heavy equipment of the simulated enemy. Shore-based forces will use Tochka-U short-range tactical missile systems during the drills. The exercise involved more than 100 soldiers.[9]In another set of drills in the WCD, armored forces launched drills to overcome water obstacles using tanks. More than 100 crews have been trained to cross rivers with maximum depth of 5 meters.[10]These drills may provide an insight into Russian military plans as crossing rivers does not generally dovetail with a purely defensive orientation.It is worth noting that Russia deployed Iskander -M tactical missile systems in Kaliningrad region. The move sparked tension in the Baltic States. On October 8, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov said: "By the way, nobody made a big secret out of the transportation of the system onboard the freighter Ambal. I'll tell more - one Iskander system was deliberately exposed prior to the shipment to an American intelligence satellite, which was on its trajectory above (the region) - that was made in order to clarify (check out) certain parameters of this satellite." He also added that the Russian side did not have long to wait since the US partners in their "exposure impulse" have confirmed everything (that the Russians needed). He also stated: "The Iskander ballistic missile system is mobile, as during the training process missile force units improve their skills year-round [which involves] covering major distances across Russian territory by various means: by air, by sea and by their own movement." (Ria.ru, October 8)The ArcticRussia's Northern and Pacific Fleet warships took part in tactical naval drills in the Arctic region, near the New Siberian Islands. Сapt. 1st Rank Igor Dygalo said: "In line with a training plan, a joint tactical exercise of warships from the Northern and Pacific Fleets has been held in the area of the New Siberian Islands. After an arrival of a group of Northern Fleet's warships... a scenario involving the escort of ships by the Pacific Fleet's Ivan Susanin icebreaker was trained."[11]

The Northern Fleet has conducted a series of drills involving anti-ship missile systems accompanied by the live firing of cruise missiles, Tu-95 strategic bombers and anti-submarine aircraft. According to the operational scenario, the navy landed and took under control of unspecified island territory and this involved raids and repelling potential enemy forces.[12]

The Baltic FleetThe Baltic Fleet has conducted very similar drills. The fleet’s press service wrote: "More than 20 crews of Su-27 and Su-24 warplanes, Mi-24 and Mi-8 military transport helicopters, as well as ship borne Ka-27 helicopters and An-26 military transport aircraft are taking part in the exercise. The crews of the naval aviation will drill interception and destruction of real air targets and the search for simulated enemy submarines."[13]The White Sea

8The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 8 of 13

03/05/2023

Page 9: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Date: September 27Location: White Sea

The Russian Defense Ministry said: "Today, on September 27, the Yuri Dolgoruky strategic nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine conducted experimental launches of two Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles from the White Sea to the Kura firing range on the Kamchatka Peninsula... Both missiles were fired from the submarine’s silos in a routine regime. The first missile's warhead completed the entire cycle of the flight program and successfully hit the designated targets at the firing range. The second missile self-liquidated after the first stage of the flight program."[14]

South OssetiaDate: September 20-24Location: South OssetiaTroops and equipment: Around 4,000 servicemen and 1,000 pieces of equipmentThe drill's scenario is an air attack of a simulated enemy, "pass through contaminated areas on the ground in conditions of the use of weapons of mass destruction and electronic countermeasures by the enemy."[15]Central Military DistrictDate: SeptemberLocation: BuryatiaTroops and Equipment: 300 personnel and about 80 pieces of military equipmentAn air defense regiment of the Central Military District, armed with the S-400 Triumph hit high-speed targets in its first exercise in Buryatia. an aide to the Central Military District's commander, Yaroslav Roshchupkin, said:  "Six missiles were launched to destroy hard-to-hit high-speed missile targets Kaban travelling along a flat path at a speed of 1,200 meters per second at an altitude of 45 kilometers."[16]West And Central RussiaDate: Main stages took place on October 5-7. The drills concluded on October 10.Location: Pskov, Ivanovo, Kostroma and Yaroslavl RegionsTroops and equipment: 5,000 paratroopers. Units of the 76th air assault division (Pskov) and 98th airborne division (Ivanovo). In total, over 5,000 servicemen and around 900 units of military and special equipment.The Russian Defense Ministry said: "These are routine military exercise."[17]Jewish Autonomous OblastDate: OctoberMilitary equipment: Iskander-M tactical missileA missile regiment of the Eastern Military District stationed in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast was put on high combat readiness for snap checks.[18]Ural RegionRussia is to establish one more armored division in the Ural region by the end of the year. The Ural region is part of Central Command. The new division is already at 70% strength in terms of personnel and heavy equipment. It will operate mainly diverse versions of the T-72 tank and will include a light infantry regiment, an artillery regiment, an air-defense regiment, and a couple of armored regiments and supporting units.[19]Topol Inter-Continental Ballistic MissileDate: September 9Location: Plesetsky DistrictOn September 9, a Topol intercontinental ballistic missile was test-fired from Russia's Plesetsk launch

9The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 9 of 13

03/05/2023

Page 10: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

site.[20]Topol, Topol-M, Yars Missile LaunchersDate:September 22Location: Tver Region to the Irkutsk Region Equipment: Around 1,700 units of equipment Over 60 standalone Topol, Topol-M and Yars missile launchers made intensive maneuvers on combat patrol routes from the Tver Region to the Irkutsk Region.[21]Iskander Missile BrigadeDate: OctoberLocation: Western Military DistrictTroops and equipment: 500 servicemen, involving 50 units of weaponry and military equipment. The Western Military District’s missile brigade, equipped with Iskander-M tactical ballistic missile systems, has been placed on the highest combat alert level as part of the 2016 comprehensive military drill that was reviewed by the Ministry of Defense and the Chief-of-Staff. The Iskander-M units will deliver "a simulated preemptive strike against the missile systems and other remote critical targets of a simulated enemy."[22]Russian Arms’ Orders From African CountriesRussian arms exporter Rosoboron export announced that it has reached tentative orders of 21 billion USD from African countries. The major clients are Angola, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Uganda, while Mali. Namibia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Mozambique, Tanzania are labeled "firm potential partners".  The potential customers have expressed their interest in BTR-82A APC, Yak-130 light attack and training aircraft, Mi-28NE and Mi-35 M attack helicopters and Varshavaynka class cruise-missile equipped submarines.[23]Russia-Egypt DrillsName: Defenders of Friendship - 2016Date: OctoberLocation: EgyptTroops:Airborne Troops of the Russian Armed Forces and of the Airborne Troops of Egypt - 10 units of military equipment and over 500 servicemen from the two countries.Military equipment: Aerodromes and 15 helicoptersRussian Airborne Troops will hold joint drills together with Egyptian forces for the first time. They will practice destroying illegal armed groups in the desert. Representatives of 30 countries will observe the maneuvers. The defense ministry said that Russian and Egyptian servicemen "will develop common approaches to issues of cooperation when performing joint actions to localize and destroy illegal armed groups in the desert."[24]Russia-Pakistan DrillsName:Druzhba-2016 (Friendship-2016)Date: September 24-October 10Location:Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, PakistanTroops and equipment:Around 200 service membersThe Russian Foreign Ministry wrote in anticipation Russian-Pakistani tactical military exercise Druzhba-2016 (Friendship 2016) that was staged September 24-October 10 at the Herat training ground in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. Around 200 service members from both sides were to take part in fine-tuning their cooperation during mountainous anti-terror operations. Commenting on the drills, Professor Sergey Lunev of the Oriental Studies Department of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations said: "The exercise is not an index of friendly relations, but these are the first drills ever to be held with Pakistan. Before that, Russia abstained from military political contacts with this country [i.e. Pakistan], mainly because of very friendly relations with India in military political sphere and uncompromising opposition between India and Pakistan."

10The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 10 of 13

03/05/2023

Page 11: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Lunev stressed that India is Russia's largest partner in terms of military technical cooperation, since it accounts for about 40% of the Russian weapons exports. Lunev added: "Russia demonstrates discontent at the drastic reinforcement of the U.S.-India relations in the military political field as well in this project with Pakistan. Russia is an utterly important partner of India, we won't break relations, they are important for us."(Pravdareport.com, September 30, 2016)Russia-India DrillsName: INDRA-2016Date: September 22-October 2Location: Sergeyevsky range (Primorsky Krai)Troops and equipment: Over 500 servicemen, 50 units of equipment, a group of UAVs, and assault and ground-support aviation.Indian Contingent: 250 soldiers of the Kumaon Regiment.The Russian Armed Forces: 250 soldiers from the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade.India-Russia joint drills INDRA-2016 took place in the Ussiriysk District in Vladivostok (at the Sergeyevsky range, Primorsky Krai),in Russia. The drills were held on September 22-October 2.

The Russian Defense Ministry reported that the drills were aimed at detecting, blocking, and eliminating simulated terrorist groupings and illegal armed formations with the use of aviation and artillery,[25] in semi-mountainous and jungle terrain under United Nations mandate.[26] Russia and India have been holding INDRA drills since 2003.[27]

Russia-China DrillsName: Joint Sea 2016Date: September 12-19Location: South China SeaRussia and China held Joint Sea 2016 drills September 12-19 in the South China Sea. The participants performed drills covering joint air defense, anti-submarine operations, landing, island-seizing, search and rescue, and weapons use. Russian commentator Aleksandr Hrolenko wrote in an article published by the RIA news agency that the drills were aimed at examining the probability and capability of mutual combat readiness for repelling U.S. fleet actions in the Southern China Sea, as the U.S. is the only country that could challenge China in those waters.The author added that acting by itself the Russian Pacific fleet regiment cannot change the military-political equation in the South China Sea, but via its presence and its cooperation with Chinese naval forces it helps reinforce Chinese defense capabilities and state sovereignty against American intervention. This is a mutually beneficial approach to both countries: China uses these drills as an additional argument in the territorial dispute over the South China Sea islands, while Russia projects power in distant parts of the ocean.(Mod.gov.cn, September 12; Ria.ru, September 12, 2016)Russia-Serbia DrillsName: BARS (Brotherhood of Aviators of Russia and Serbia)-2016Date: OctoberLocation: SerbiaTroops and Equipment: Crews of MiG-29 and Mi-8 aircraft from  both countries. In total, up to 10 aircraft of the Serbian Air Force and Air Defense troops will be involved in the drill.In a statement describing the start in Serbia of the Joint Russian-Serbian BARS-2016 tactical flight exercises, the Russian Defense Ministry said: "During the day, participants in the drills will undergo classroom training at the Batajnica airbase, will study flight areas, conduct tactical training with the

11The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 11 of 13

03/05/2023

Page 12: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

use of aircraft and drill teamwork skills with the flight control group."[28]The Russian Defense Ministry added that Mi-8 crews will practice landing and search-and-rescue operations, whereas MiG-29 crews will strike a simulated enemy and intercept aerial targets.[29]'Frontier-2016' CSTO DrillsName: Rubezh-2016 (Frontier-2016), counter-terrorist operation at the drill of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)Date: October 4-7Location: Active phase in KyrgyzstanParticipating countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and RussiaObservers: US, China and IndiaTroops and equipment: 1,000 servicemen from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. More than 200 items of hardware: T-72 tanks, BTR-80 armored fighting vehicles, Tigr armored cars, Grad multiple launch rocket systems and more than 20 helicopters and aircraft, including Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS long-range aircraft of the Russian Federation Air Force.[30]

In October 2017, the CSTO plans to hold the Combat Brotherhood drills on the territory of Armenia, Kazakhstan and Russia.[31]

Endnotes: [1] Tass.com, September 14, 2016.[2] Mil.ru, September 5, 2016.[3] Tass.com, September 8, 2016.[4] Tass.com, September 9, 2016.[5] Tass.com, September 13, 2016.[6] Tass.com, September 14, 2016.[7] Mk.ru, September 8, 2016.[8] Tass.com, September 14, 2016.[9] Ria.ru, September 13, 2016.[10] Ria.ru, September 13, 2016.[11] Sputniknews.com, September 21, 2016.[12] Stat.function.mil.ru, September 17, 2016.[13] Sputniknews.com, September 21, 2016.[14] Tass.com, September 28, 2016.[15] Tass.com, September 20, 2016.[16] Tass.com, September 27, 2016.[17] Tass.com, October 3, 2016.[18] Tass.com, October 4, 2016.[19] Tass.ru, September 11, 2016.[20] Tass.com, September 9, 2016.[21] Tass.com, September 22, 2016.[22] Tass.com, October 4, 2016.[23] Tass.ru, September 13, 2016.[24] Tass.com, October 3, 2016.[25] Mil.ru[26] Rbth.com[27] Rbth.com[28] Tass.com, October 10, 2016.

12The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 12 of 13

03/05/2023

Page 13: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-64

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

[29] Mil.ru, October 10, 2016.[30] Tass.com, October 4, 2016.

[31] Tass.com , October 7, 2016.

13The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 13 of 13

03/05/2023


Recommended