ALACHUA COUNTY ENERGY CONSERVATION STRATEGIES COMMISSION
COUNTYWIDE ENERGY EFFICIENCY INITIATIVE MAY 21, 2008
OutlineIntroductionsThe Big PictureThe GoalScope and PurposeRevenue SourcesBackground of the ECSC InitiativeWho, What and WhereFunding MechanismsNext Steps
IntroductionsEmail: [email protected] Phone: 352-264-6800 Address: ECSC, 201 SE 2nd St., Suite 201, Gainesville, FL 32601ECSC meetings: 1st and 3rd Mondays of the month at 5:30 PM - County Administration Building, Second Floor, Grace Knight Conference Room.ECSC subcommittee meetings: Weekly on Tuesday & Wednesday. (call for details)
Presentation of the Big PictureDirection from BoCCApril 22, 2008: Direct the Manager and his Finance Team to meet with the ECSC and/or relevant ECSC subcommittees to develop, for Commission consideration, potential financing mechanisms to implement energy efficiencies on a massive scale. The ECSC also requests that Alachua County Clerk of Court Buddy Irby participate in development of this financing mechanism.
The GoalDevelop, financing mechanisms to implement energy efficiencies on a massive scale. Todays meeting is not about creating an entire Weatherization Program from scratch.
Scope and PurposeWho, What and Where are we seeking to finance?
Revenue SourcesPublic FundingPrivate FundingExample Program: GRUs 3% Energy Efficiency Loan ProgramCarbon Markets
Background on ECSC InitiativeBerkeley ModelECSC Prioritized Goals1st Weatherization2nd Energy Efficiency3rd Renewable PowerPotential Partners
For Who, What and Where?Who, What and Where (do we want to provide this financing?)
Funding MechanismsDifferent mechanisms may apply depending upon the who, what and wheres
Next StepsJune 16, Presentation on CWC by Wendell PorterFollow-up meeting with the FPG or a Weatherization Finance TeamECSC Report Due before Sept 2008Schedule Community Roundtable Discussion for the Fall 2008?Define and run a Pilot Project in Winter 2009?Implement an Ongoing Weatherization Program Fall 2010?
Alachua County CommissionBoard of County Commissioners of Alachua County wishes to do its part to reduce or mitigate the effects of Global Climate Change and promote the long-term economic security of its citizens through the implementation of policies that enhance energy efficiencyCreated Energy Conservation Strategies Commission (Resolution 07-18,March 27, 2007)Appointed ECSC members (May 22, 2007)
ECSC MembershipTwelve energy conservation experts Possess demonstrated expertise and/or advanced training in the areas of energy demand side management, LEED or Green Building Code standards, renewable energy technologies, or a related field. One representative of the University of Florida One former elected Gainesville City Commissioner One former elected Alachua County Commissioner One alternate position
ECSC MembershipEnergy Conservation experts
Dwight Adams, Ph.D. Ed Brown Fred Depenbrock Christopher Fillie Ken Fonorow Levin Gaston
Pattie GlennHarry KegelmannTom LaneRuth SteinerEduardo VargasOne Vacancy
ECSC MembershipUniversity of Florida Representative VacancyFormer elected Gainesville City Commissioner Warren NielsenFormer elected Alachua County Commissioner Penny WheatAlternate Member Bill Shepherd
Energy Conservation Strategies CommissionMISSIONTo draft a comprehensive report on energy use, its relationship to climate change and local socio-economic impacts, including actions that can be implemented by the Board of County Commissioners and the community at large.
Studying socioeconomic impacts of increased energy costs for transportation & buildings. ECSC final report due August, 2008
Community ChallengesEscalating energy costsClimate change: global and localVariation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates over time. These changes can be caused by processes internal to the Earth, external forces (e.g. variations in sunlight intensity) and, more recently, human activities.Peak Oil production Peak Oil means not 'running out of oil', but 'running out of cheap oil'. For societies leveraged on ever increasing amounts of cheap oil, the consequences may be dire.Energy Bulletin: http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php
Land Use & TransportationLocally-applicable Alternative Energy OptionsResidential Buildings (inc. Low-Income Housing & Rental Properties)Waste & Energy Implications
Escalating energy costsCost of oil (gasoline)Oct 2001: $19.13/barrel $1.44/gallon gasOct 2007: $73.65/barrel $2.84/gallon gasMonthly Cost of Food for a Family of 4Oct 2001: $612Oct 2007: $750Average residential retail price of electricity2001: 8.63 cents/kWh2007: 10.61 cents/kWh97%23%23%
Energy & Transportation
US General Accountability Office Report GAO-07-283: released February, 2007
Crude Oil: Uncertainty about future oil supply makes it important to develop a strategy for addressing a peak and decline in oil production
United States Oil ImportsThis chart depicts the sources of American oil imports. While the United States gets about 45% of its oil from the Middle East and North Africa, these regions hold over two thirds of the oil reserves worldwide.
Driving the Future of Energy Security http://lugar.senate.gov/energy/graphs/oilimport.html
US Oil Production and ConsumptionOverview 1949-2006Million Barrels per DayEnergy Information Administration; Official Energy Statistics from the US Governmenthttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec5_4.pdf
US General Accountability Office Study
U.S. economy depends heavily on oil, particularly in the transportation sector. World oil production has been running at near capacity to meet demand, pushing prices upward.
How long can world oil supply expand before reaching a maximum level of production -a peak- from which it can only decline?
Study examined when oil production could peak.
US General Accountability Office Study
Assessed the potential for transportation technologies to mitigate the consequences of a peak in oil production; and
Reviewed studies, convened expert panel, and consulted agency officials. Examined federal agency efforts that could reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or mitigate the consequence.
US General Accountability OfficeReport - Key Findings
Peak oil is real.
A decline in oil production, both conventional and unconventional, will occur sometime between now (February 2007) and 2040.
No one is sure when it will occur, because there is a wide variance in the data and methodology used by various research entities.
US General Accountability OfficeReport - Key FindingsWithout consistent government policy that acknowledges its (peak oil & decline) reality and plans for its eventuality, the United States, perhaps more than any other nation, will be the most seriously harmed economically.
In commenting on a draft of the report, the Departments of Energy and the Interior generally agreed with the report and recommendations.
US General Accountability OfficeRecommendation
To better prepare for a peak in oil production, GAO recommends that the Secretary of Energy work with other agencies to establish a strategy to coordinate and prioritize federal agency efforts to reduce uncertainty about the likely timing of a peak and to advise Congress on how best to mitigate consequences.
US General Accountability OfficeSelected FindingsThe prospect of a peak in oil production presents problems of global proportion whose consequences will depend critically on our preparedness.
The consequences would be most dire if a peak occurred soon, without warning, and were followed by a sharp decline in oil production because alternative energy sources, particularly for transportation, are not yet available in large quantities.
US General Accountability OfficeSelected FindingsSuch a peak would require sharp reductions in oil consumption, and the competition for increasingly scarce energy would drive up prices, possibly to unprecedented levels, causing severe economic damage.
The United States, as the largest consumer of oil and one of the nations most heavily dependent on oil for transportation, may be especially vulnerable among the industrialized nations of the world. (p.38)
US General Accountability OfficeSelected Findings
The decline would be neither temporary nor reversible: the effects would continue until alternative fuel technologies to displace oil became available in sufficient quantities at comparable costs. Oil production could decline even more each year following a peak. The amount of alternative fuels to replace oil would have to increase year by year. (p.33-4).
US General Accountability OfficeSelected FindingsKey alternative [fuels] currently supply the equivalent of only about 1 percent of U.S. consumption of petroleum products.
USDOE projects that even under optimistic scenarios, by 2015 these alternative fuels could displace only the equivalent of 4 percent of projected U.S. annual consumption.
US General Accountability OfficeSelected FindingsFederal agencies currently have no coordinated or well-defined strategy either to reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or to mitigate its consequences.
This lack of a strategy makes it difficult to gauge the appropriate level of effort or resources to commit to alternatives to oil and puts the nation unnecessarily at risk. (p.39)
ECSC Recommendation to MTPOFebruary 14, 2008
That the MTPO:Direct MTPO staff to include in the consultant Scope of Services (for 2035 & future Transportation Plan updates) a requirement that peak oil production and decline variables be reviewed and tested so as to: (1), determine potential future transportation and land use scenarios necessary to mitigate local effects of peak oil production and decline; and (2), recommend alternatives to accomplish transportation and land use mitigation strategies.
Community OpportunitiesCreate an energy self-sufficient and resilient community
Implement a community weatherization & energy efficiency upgrade program.Develop local economy based on low-energy consumption.Develop multi-mode, sustainable mobility infra-structure, with focus on public transportation.
Community OpportunitiesCreate an energy self-sufficient and resilient community
Maximize local food production.Maximize local, non-fossil fuel based energy production; create community employment opportunities & grow new local businesses (relocalization).
Contact the ECSCEmail: [email protected] Phone: 352-264-6800 Address: ECSC, 201 SE 2nd St., Suite 201, Gainesville, FL 32601ECSC meetings: 1st and 3rd Mondays of the month at 5:30 PM - County Administration Building, Second Floor, Grace Knight Conference Room.ECSC subcommittee meetings: Weekly on Tuesday & Wednesday. (call for details)
Resources Energy Bulletinhttp://www.energybulletin.net Energy Information Administration; Official Energy Statistics from the US Governmenthttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/petro.html CRUDE OIL: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production. United States Government Accountability Office, February 2007http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf
ResourcesThe New York Times Magazine: August 21,2005 The Breaking Point by Peter Maasshttp://www.petermaass.com/core.cfm?p=1&mag=124&magtype=1
National Geographic: The End of Cheap Oil by Tim Appenzeller http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/fulltext.html
The ECSC continues to refine its countywide energy efficiency initiative ideas. There are several nascent threads developing among the members for various and perhaps complimentary financing proposals. Some, such as the re-interpretation of Berkeley CAs solar finance model and the recent RFI proposal to the DOE have a clearer scope and purpose.
*Allow as many property owners as possible to take advantage of low-interest up-front capital to make energy efficiency upgrades or move to renewable power generation.For example some questions the ECSC are exploring Is this just for single family owner-occupied residences?, Can it be applied to surrounding public infrastructure? Does financing occurring only in a special assessment area or Sustainable Opportunity Sector (see RFI for DOE)
*Which finance models (depending upon the answers above) are legally open to us Public Funding via Infrastructure Bonds, Property Tax Special Assessment; Housing Finance Authority funding, Industrial Development Revenue bonds, Local SHIP Funds, Commercial PaperPrivate Funding: Credit Unions, not-for-profit groupsOther Financial Models to build upon: GRUs 3% Energy Efficiency Loan Program
*(Defines a Weatherization Finance Team)Alachua County Government: SHIP, EPD, FPG, Poverty Reduction Coordinator etcCommunity Weatherization Coalition, ACTION Network (not for profits and faith based groups)UF and SFCCCity of Gainesville and GRUOther UtilitiesLocal Financial Institutions*Different mechanisms may apply depending upon the who, what and wheresSpecial AssessmentBondsSales Tax (See TPL Survey 3rd highest scoring item?)Federal and State fundingPrivate Financial MarketsOther???
***US Oil Imports Canada is currently the largest provider of crude oil to the United States. January 2007: The United States produced 5,196 thousand barrels per day (34 %) and imported 10,192 barrels per day (66 %) of crude oil. The U.S. currently gets a total of about 55% of its crude oil from North America (U.S., Canada and Mexico combined).The top five exporting countries to the U.S. accounted for 68 % of United States crude oil imports in January while the top ten sources accounted for approximately 88 % of all U.S. crude oil imports. Middle East countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait) accounted for a total of 22 % of all U.S. crude oil imports. http://www.appinsys.com/oil/Points of interest on the chart1970s oil embargo and the subsequent falling demand and the early 80s era of stagflation.*