ALACHUA COUNTY ENERGY CONSERVATION STRATEGIES COMMISSION

COUNTYWIDE ENERGY EFFICIENCY INITIATIVE MAY 21, 2008

Outline

Introductions The Big Picture The Goal Scope and Purpose Revenue Sources Background of the ECSC Initiative Who, What and Where Funding Mechanisms Next Steps

Introductions

Email: energy@alachuacounty.us Phone: 352-264-6800 Address: ECSC, 201 SE 2nd St., Suite 201,

Gainesville, FL 32601 ECSC meetings: 1st and 3rd Mondays of the month

at 5:30 PM - County Administration Building, Second Floor, Grace Knight Conference Room.

ECSC subcommittee meetings: Weekly on Tuesday & Wednesday. (call for details)

Presentation of the “Big Picture”Direction from BoCC

April 22, 2008: Direct the Manager and his Finance Team to meet with the ECSC and/or relevant ECSC subcommittees to develop, for Commission consideration, potential financing mechanisms to implement energy efficiencies on a massive scale.  The ECSC also requests that Alachua County Clerk of Court Buddy Irby participate in development of this financing mechanism.

The Goal

Develop, financing mechanisms to implement energy efficiencies on a massive scale.  Today’s meeting is not about creating an entire Weatherization Program from scratch.

Scope and Purpose

Who, What and Where are we seeking to finance? 

Revenue Sources

Public Funding Private Funding Example Program: GRU’s 3%

Energy Efficiency Loan Program Carbon Markets

Background on ECSC Initiative Berkeley Model ECSC Prioritized Goals 

1st Weatherization 2nd Energy Efficiency 3rd Renewable Power

Potential Partners

For Who, What and Where?

Who, What and Where (do we want to provide this financing?)

Funding Mechanisms

Different mechanisms may apply depending upon the who, what and where’s

Next Steps

June 16, Presentation on CWC by Wendell Porter

Follow-up meeting with the FPG or a “Weatherization Finance Team”

ECSC Report Due before Sept 2008 Schedule Community Roundtable Discussion

for the Fall 2008? Define and run a Pilot Project in Winter 2009? Implement an Ongoing Weatherization

Program Fall 2010?

Thank You

Alachua County Commission

“Board of County Commissioners of Alachua County wishes to do its part to reduce or mitigate the effects of Global Climate Change and promote the long-term economic security of its citizens through the implementation of policies that enhance energy efficiency…”

Created Energy Conservation Strategies Commission (Resolution 07-18,March 27, 2007)

Appointed ECSC members (May 22, 2007)

ECSC Membership

Twelve energy conservation experts “Possess demonstrated expertise and/or advanced training in the areas of energy demand side management, LEED or Green Building Code standards, renewable energy technologies, or a related field.” One representative of the University of Florida One former elected Gainesville City Commissioner One former elected Alachua County Commissioner One alternate position

ECSC MembershipEnergy Conservation experts

Dwight Adams, Ph.D. Ed Brown Fred Depenbrock Christopher Fillie Ken Fonorow Levin Gaston

Pattie Glenn Harry Kegelmann Tom Lane Ruth Steiner Eduardo Vargas One Vacancy

ECSC Membership

University of Florida Representative VacancyFormer elected Gainesville City Commissioner Warren NielsenFormer elected Alachua County Commissioner Penny WheatAlternate Member Bill Shepherd

Energy Conservation Strategies Commission

MISSION “To draft a comprehensive report on energy use, its

relationship to climate change and local socio-economic impacts, including actions that can be implemented by the Board of County Commissioners and the community at large.”

Studying socioeconomic impacts of increased energy costs for transportation & buildings. ECSC final report due August, 2008

Community Challenges

Escalating energy costs Climate change: global and local

Variation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates over time. These changes can be caused by processes internal to the Earth, external forces (e.g. variations in sunlight intensity) and, more recently, human activities.

Peak Oil production “Peak Oil” means not 'running out of oil', but 'running out of cheap oil'. For societies leveraged on ever increasing amounts of cheap oil, the consequences may be dire.”Energy Bulletin: http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

ECSC Subcommittees

Land Use & Transportation Locally-applicable Alternative Energy Options Residential Buildings (inc. Low-Income

Housing & Rental Properties) Waste & Energy Implications

Escalating energy costs

Cost of oil (gasoline)Oct 2001: $19.13/barrel $1.44/gallon gasOct 2007: $73.65/barrel $2.84/gallon gas Monthly Cost of Food for a Family of 4Oct 2001: $612Oct 2007: $750 Average residential retail price of electricity2001: 8.63 cents/kWh2007: 10.61 cents/kWh

97%

23%

23%

Energy & Transportation

US General Accountability Office Report GAO-07-283: released February, 2007

Crude Oil: Uncertainty about future oil supply

makes it important to develop a strategy for addressing a peak and decline in oil production

Source: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf

United States Oil Imports

This chart depicts the sources of American oil imports. While the United States gets about 45% of its oil from the Middle East and North Africa, these regions hold over two thirds of the oil reserves worldwide.”

Driving the Future of Energy Security http://lugar.senate.gov/energy/graphs/oilimport.html

US Oil Production and ConsumptionOverview 1949-2006

Mill

ion B

arr

els

per

Day

Energy Information Administration; Official Energy Statistics from the US Government

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec5_4.pdf

US Consumption 20.59 MB/Day

US Production

Net Imports

 US General Accountability Office Study

U.S. economy depends heavily on oil, particularly in the transportation sector. World oil production has been running at near capacity to meet demand, pushing prices upward.

How long can world oil supply expand before reaching a maximum level of production -a peak- from which it can only decline?

Study examined when oil production could ‘peak’.

 US General Accountability Office Study

Assessed the potential for transportation technologies to mitigate the consequences of a peak in oil production; and

Reviewed studies, convened expert panel, and consulted agency officials. Examined federal agency efforts that could reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or mitigate the consequence.

US General Accountability OfficeReport - Key Findings

Peak oil is real.

A decline in oil production, both conventional and unconventional, will occur sometime between now (February 2007) and 2040.

No one is sure when it will occur, because there is a wide variance in the data and methodology used by various research entities.

US General Accountability OfficeReport - Key Findings

Without consistent government policy that acknowledges its (peak oil & decline) reality and plans for its eventuality, the United States, perhaps more than any other nation, will be the most seriously harmed economically.

In commenting on a draft of the report, the Departments of Energy and the Interior generally agreed with the report and recommendations.

US General Accountability OfficeRecommendation

“To better prepare for a peak in oil production, GAO recommends that the Secretary of Energy work with other agencies to establish a strategy to coordinate and prioritize federal agency efforts to reduce uncertainty about the likely timing of a peak and to advise Congress on how best to mitigate consequences.”

US General Accountability OfficeSelected Findings

“The prospect of a peak in oil production presents problems of global proportion whose consequences will depend critically on our preparedness.”

“The consequences would be most dire if a peak occurred soon, without warning, and were followed by a sharp decline in oil production because alternative energy sources, particularly for transportation, are not yet available in large quantities.”

US General Accountability OfficeSelected Findings

“Such a peak would require sharp reductions in oil consumption, and the competition for increasingly scarce energy would drive up prices, possibly to unprecedented levels, causing severe economic damage.”

The United States, as the largest consumer of oil and one of the nations most heavily dependent on oil for transportation, may be especially vulnerable among the industrialized nations of the world. (p.38)

US General Accountability OfficeSelected Findings

The decline would be neither temporary nor reversible: the effects would continue until alternative fuel technologies to displace oil became available in sufficient quantities at comparable costs.

Oil production could decline even more each year

following a peak. The amount of alternative fuels to replace oil would have to increase year by year. (p.33-4).

US General Accountability OfficeSelected Findings

“Key alternative [fuels] currently supply the equivalent of only about 1 percent of U.S. consumption of petroleum products.”

“USDOE projects that even under optimistic scenarios, by 2015 these alternative fuels could displace only the equivalent of 4 percent of projected U.S. annual consumption.”

US General Accountability OfficeSelected Findings

Federal agencies currently have no coordinated or well-defined strategy either to reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or to mitigate its consequences.

This lack of a strategy makes it difficult to gauge the appropriate level of effort or resources to commit to alternatives to oil and puts the nation unnecessarily at risk. (p.39)

ECSC Recommendation to MTPOFebruary 14, 2008

That the MTPO:“Direct MTPO staff to include in the consultant Scope of Services (for 2035 & future Transportation Plan updates) a requirement that peak oil production and decline variables be reviewed and tested so as to: (1), determine potential future transportation and land use scenarios necessary to mitigate local effects of peak oil production and decline; and (2), recommend alternatives to accomplish transportation and land use mitigation strategies.”

Community OpportunitiesCreate an energy self-sufficient and resilient community

Implement a community weatherization & energy efficiency upgrade program.

Develop local economy based on low-energy consumption.

Develop multi-mode, sustainable mobility infra-structure, with focus on public transportation.

Community OpportunitiesCreate an energy self-sufficient and resilient community

Maximize local food production. Maximize local, non-fossil fuel based energy

production; create community employment opportunities & grow new local businesses (“relocalization”).

Contact the ECSC

Email: energy@alachuacounty.us Phone: 352-264-6800 Address: ECSC, 201 SE 2nd St., Suite 201,

Gainesville, FL 32601 ECSC meetings: 1st and 3rd Mondays of the month

at 5:30 PM - County Administration Building, Second Floor, Grace Knight Conference Room.

ECSC subcommittee meetings: Weekly on Tuesday & Wednesday. (call for details)

Resources

Energy Bulletinhttp://www.energybulletin.net Energy Information Administration; Official Energy Statistics from the US Governmenthttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/petro.html CRUDE OIL: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production. United States Government Accountability Office, February 2007http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf

Resources

The New York Times Magazine: August 21,2005 The Breaking Point by Peter Maasshttp://www.petermaass.com/core.cfm?p=1&mag=124&magtype=1

National Geographic: The End of Cheap Oil by Tim Appenzeller http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/fulltext.html