14th Meeting of the Independent Science & Partnership Council

12-16 September 2016 ICRISAT Headquarters Hyderabad

Strategic ForesightForesight in the CGIAR : Concept Note and Terms

of Reference for a Working Group

Albino Maggio University of Naples Federico II

Concept note on the background and rationale of the foresight work and the initial steps in the process and the program of work

The ISPC Task Force recommended that the ISPC play arole in advising the System Council on scientific foresight,to inform updating of the CGIAR Strategy and ResultsFramework (SRF).

ISPC will oversee the implementation of strategicforesight, once the scope has been set by the SC.

ISPC and Strategic Foresight

The purpose of the CGIAR System is to advance agri-food science and innovation to enable poor people, especially women, to better nourish their families, and improve productivity and resilience so they can share in economic growth and manage natural resources in the face of climate change and other challenges.

CGIAR Mandate and Forward Looking

While the purpose of the CGIAR is fixed and clear, how best to manage agricultural research to achieve this purpose could change over time.

Need for a more effective alignment of research strategies with overall objectives.

Foresight can help in this process by looking at alternative plausible futures to try to understand the overall role of agricultural research in fulfilling the purpose of CGIAR, and then the overall role of CGIAR research within that set.

It has been acknowledged the value of foresight in addressing complex issues and analyzing future scenarios.

A large body of literature on foresight and foresight-like studies on food and nutrition security, poverty alleviation, agriculture sustainability and management of natural resources has been produced.

Foresight is a well-known tool

ISCP work on prioritization, urbanization and farm size, crop improvement and agricultural expansion, theory of change

Work stemmed from international networks in which CGIAR plays an active role. The Forward Thinking Platform, The Grassroots Foresight Initiative, The Global Foresight Hub

Inter-center initiatives: Systemwide Program on Collective Action and Property Rights (CAPRI developed at IFPRI) and the Global Futures project (IFPRI)

On-going Foresight at CGIAR

Rolling collaborations include activities with the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA), Global Forum of Rural Advisory Services (GFRAS), Young Professional for Agricultural Development (YPARD) -

CGIAR Research Programs (CRPs) and global integrating programs (GIP) have all internalized foresight components addressing more inclusive and participatory research, sustainable aquaculture, the interaction between livestock development and the environment and more

On-going Foresight at CGIAR

Lack of coordination is a possible constraint for harmonized outcome of these efforts

Most foresight work on food and nutrition security has framed its analysis on similar drivers:

1) Global population increases2) Climate change3) Competition for key resources 4) Societal values

The coordination-to-prioritizationprocess is not easy

1) Balancing demand and supply sustainably – to ensure that food supplies are affordable to everyone and in particular the poorest groups.

2) Ensuring that there is adequate stability in food supplies. 3) Achieving global access to food and ending hunger.4) Managing the contribution of the food system to the

mitigation of climate change. 5) Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while

feeding the world.

Critical challenges to face if we want to feed the world and alleviate poverty in a

sustainable way(distilled)

Scenario analyses address the systemic and dynamic nature of food security and have been used to somehow narrow down this list and propose stricter prioritization criteria.

However, describing (and using) alternative, equally plausible futures may open up the opportunity for more policy options and actions. This is somewhat in contrast with the need for prioritization, a process that is much needed in research panning and policy-making.

Scenario Analyses

To serve as an overall umbrella to: Inform the strategy and revision of the SRF Contribute identifying relevance of CGIAR research Coordinate streams for better coherence in the CGIAR Provide relevant context and emerging insights as a basis for

system level prioritization of research

Main objective of the foresight exercise in ISPC

How research Programs and Centers can efficiently operate in synergy to best respond to emerging needs has to be established

via a systematic process.

Foresight can help to define this process through a participatory approach.

Foresight starts from looking at what evidence the world needs to

deliver the SDGs

Finally it narrows it again to where the CGIAR has a competitive

advantage and within that what is value for money for use of W1-2

funding

Then narrows that down to what donor of agricultural

development can fund

1) Scanning a and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues (Horizon Scanning)

2) Mobilizing and engaging key stakeholders3) Generating (new) knowledge through exploration,

analysis and anticipation of possible futures4) Shaping the future through strategic planning5) Evaluating/learning

A general foresight process in 5 steps

1) Open to multiple approaches including economic modelling, analysis of comparative advantage, scenarios to best respond to complex issues.

2) Cross-linked to science quality to best allocate resources to potentially highly successful projects.

3) Participatory via bottom-up inclusion of all Centers, CRPs, donors that will build ownership of the process.

4) Coordinated (by the ICPS) to avoid overlaps and duplication of efforts and to ensure an objective assessment, without bias from individual stakeholders.

5) Inclusive by involving in the process other institutions of international agricultural research organizations.

Imbedding Foresight in the CGIAR systems(general principles)

STAGE 1 The SC will “set the scene” by providing a high level forward-looking analysis of the global context within and beyond the CGIAR. This will lead to define key strategic questions and drivers relevant to the CGIAR mandate and strategic goals. (i.e. reducing rural poverty, increasing food security, improving human health and nutrition, and ensuring sustainable management of natural resources).

Strategic and Scientific Foresightin a 4 step process

Strategic Fresight (including political dimensions) will frame the major lines of expected research based on megatrends and foreseen scenarios. Define the System Level Outcomes.

Scientific Foresight - System thinking for strategic prioritization. Setting actions across major agro-food systems and addressing underexplored trends and new areas of research that need further attention.

STAGE 2 Is an Independent Assessment, where the scope should go through a true brainstorming with a small group of “strategic thinkers”, on how the futures may look like around grand challenges, when and how science comes into it, which are the key questions and how is the world prepared to address them for reaching and beyond the SDGs

STAGE 3The outcome of STAGE 1 and STAGE 2 will feed into STAGE 3 for the operational (or scientific) foresight. Here the scope is to start matching research demand and research offer (CGIAR comparative advantage) on which the System will commit to capitalize and invest.

STAGE 4 Is the truly operational step that links the STAGES 1-3 process to research activities and how these can best evolve based on new knowledge acquired throughout the process.

ISPC will support the activities within STAGE 1 and STAGE 2, implement, coordinate and supervise the activities of

STAGE 3 and 4, ensure that the entire process is effectively carried out.

At System Level a Foresight Steering Committee (FSC) will be established and responsible for STAGE 1.

As Independent Assessment, STAGE 2 will not involve CGIAR associated members.

STAGE 3 and 4 will be managed by an enlarged Foresight Working Group, responsible for functionalizing the outcome of STAGE 1 and 2 into a structured foresight process (STAGE 3 and 4).

The two foresight levels (STAGE 1-2 strategic and STAGE 3-4 scientific) will operate harmonically, since the outcome of the strategic foresight (STAGE 1 and 2) will be the strategic operational frame in which a first level of priorities (comparative advantage of the CGIAR) will be set along with possible research gaps identified.

A few operational details

2-year Action Plan

Abraham Harold Maslow (April 1, 1908 – June 8, 1970) was an American psychologist who was best known for creating Maslow's hierarchy of needs (prioritization??)

“If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail” (AH Maslow)