Date post: | 15-Jan-2017 |
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INDIA July – December 2015
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
2015 ENDS WITH
THE LOWEST NEW LAUNCHES AND
SALES VOLUME SINCE 2010
RESIDENTIAL
480,4
24
466,4
22
458,2
28
419,4
39
309,7
30
244,9
44
361,4
83
368,5
68
359,5
48
329
,63
0
274,1
09
263,7
20
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
No
. o
f u
nit
s
Launches Absorption
NCR, MUMBAI AND BENGALURU WITNESS
SHARPEST FALL IN LAUNCHES
ANNUAL LAUNCHES & SALES TREND
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
In h2 2015, SALES VOLUME held
steady to THE previous year’s
level, but NEW LAUNCHES STILL
LAG BEHIND
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
268,3
09
197,2
23
221,9
23
187
,19
9
150
,47
1
131,4
45
19
9,8
10
16
7,8
36
18
6,7
71
13
4,1
66
13
8,1
65
14
2,6
71
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
H2 2010 H2 2011 H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015
No
. o
f u
nit
s
Launches Absorption
NEW LAUNCHES FALL BY 13% y-o-y
from 1,50,471 to 1,31,445 units
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
HALF-YEARLY LAUNCHES & SALES TREND
-13%
Supply pressure IS Easing;
UNWINDING OF UNSOLD
INVENTORY HAPPENING
AT A FAST PACE
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
644,345
691,300
714,577 714,972
710,340
691,591
600,000
620,000
640,000
660,000
680,000
700,000
720,000
740,000
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015
No
. o
f u
nit
s
Unsold inventory comes back to
2013 level
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
UNSOLD INVENTORY
SHARP RISE IN QUARTERS TO SELL
UNSOLD INVENTORY ARRESTED
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
QUARTERS TO SELL UNSOLD INVENTORY TREND
6
8
10
12
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015
QT
S
Sharp fall in price growth
arrested; prices growing at
a steady 3% per annum rate
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
Growth down from 9% to 3% in the
last 36 months
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015
Pri
ce g
row
th
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
PRICE GROWTH
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
Home buyers avoiding
projects in initial stages of
construction; low level of
confidence in project
delivery
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
Confidence in NCR market falls
the most; but Mumbai gains
31%
50%
35%
41%
34%
29%
39%
33%
38%
34%
39%
35%
26%
20% 22%
24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata Ahmedabad
% o
f S
ale
s
2013 2015
SALES TREND IN PROJECTS WHICH ARE IN THE INITIAL
STAGES OF CONSTRUCTION
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad
PUNE CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST
MARKET IN INDIA; NCR the worst
QTS VS. AGE OF INVENTORY ACROSS CITIES
Mumbai
NCR
Bengaluru
Pune
Chennai
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Ahmedabad
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Age o
f unsold
invento
ry in q
uart
ers
QTS
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad
Demand outstrips supply for
the 2nd straight year;
2015 closes at the highest
levels since 2011
office
43.6
48.3
43.1
36.3
34.8
35.5
37
.0
41
.2
32
.2
33
.6
38.3
40
.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mn
sq
ft
New Completions Absorption
While absorption increased by 7% in
2015, new completions grew by just 2%
ANNUAL TREND OF NEW COMPLETIONS AND ABSORPTION
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad
Vacancy levels are at a
record 8-year low
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad
Vacancy levels fall to 15.8% in 2015
from their 2012 peak of 21%
ANNUAL VACANCY TREND
17%
21%
15.8%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad
H2 2015 WITNESSES HIGHEST
HALF-YEARLY DEMAND FOR
OFFICE SPACE since 2012
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad
BUT NEW COMPLETIONS STILL BELOW
THEIR H2 2012 PEAK LEVELS
NEW COMPLETIONS AND ABSORPTION IN H2
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad
23.1
19.2
18.5
19.7
14.7
15.2
20.4
22.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015
mn
sq
ft
New Completions Absorption
KEY TAKEAWAYS
RESIDENTIAL
2015 ENDS WITH THE LOWEST NEW LAUNCHES AND
SALES VOLUME SINCE 2010
OFFICE at 84.2%, OCCUPANCY HIGHEST SINCE 2008
Severe supply crunch of quality office space
putting upward pressure on rentals
INDIA July – December 2015