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Capital Market Presentation
September 2011:
Limits to growth
Hans-Jrg Naumer, Dennis Nacken,
Stefan Scheurer
Not for circulation to
private investors
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Limits to growth
OECD-Leading Indicators: Almost every economic indicator is weakening.
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
3 0 / 0 8 /1 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
- 1 5
- 1 0
- 5
0
5
1 0
1 5
U S A
E M UO E C D
J a p a n
- 1 5
- 1 0
- 5
0
5
1 0
1 5
S o u r c e : T h o m s o n D a t a s t re a m
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CDS premia are close to their peak levels.
iTraxx Senior Financials & iTraxx Europe
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
3 0 / 8 /1 1
2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
3 0 0
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
1 4 0
1 6 0
1 8 0
2 0 0
2 2 0
I t r a x x S e n i o r F i n a n c i a l s ( 5 y e a r s )
I t r a x x E u r o p e ( 5 y e a r s ) ( r h s )
S o u r c e : T h o m s o n D a t a s t re a m
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Emerging Markets: Economic strength
Share of global economic growth and market capitalisation. (MSCI World AC, in US-Dollar).
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Russia
India
Brazil
China
Japan
Europe
USA
Share market cap Share economic growth
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
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Economic leading indicators: Affected by capital market sentiment.
ifo-busines climate index and purchasing manager indices of the US and China.
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
3 0 / 8 /1 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
8 0
8 5
9 0
9 5
1 0 0
1 0 5
1 1 0
1 1 5
1 2 0
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
5 5
6 0
6 5
i f o - I n d e x
I S M P u r c h a s i n g M a n a g e r I n d e x ( r h s )P u r c h a s i n g M a n a g e r I n d e x C h i n a ( r h s )
S o u r c e : T h o m s o n D a t a s t r e a m
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Most regional surprise indices are at their historical turning
points.
Surprise-Indicators are calculated as the deviation between actual economic data and the consensus estimates.
Indicators concerning surprise events in global macro data (Surprise Indicators)
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
19.
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US EMU JAP
Source: Datastream; RCM
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P/E ratios 12 months forward.
Valuations continue to suggest equity investments
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
3 0 / 8 /1 1
9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
D A X P / E r a t i o ( b a s i s : 1 2 - m o n t h - f w d - p r o f i t s )
D A X P / E a v e r a g e1 0 y B u n d s P / E ( 1 0 0 / y i e l d )
B u n d s P / E a v e r a g e
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
S o u r c e : T h o m s o n D a t a s t r e a m
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Investment theme: Dividends
The Standard & Poors 500 also shows that dividends made up most of the losses caused by price
fluctuations.
Capital gains/losses Dividend income
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
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Investment theme: High Yields
Solid liquidity reserves and the ongoing trend in the coming year of conservative corporate financial policy
should continue to provide a positive environment for corporate bonds.
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
3 0 / 8 / 1 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
0
0 . 5 0
1 . 0 0
1 . 5 0
2 . 0 0
2 . 5 0
3 . 0 0
3 . 5 0
4 . 0 0
4 . 5 0
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
E M U H Y - G o v e r n m e n t B o n d s ( M L ) ( r h s )
E M U C o r p o r a t e B o n d s - G o v e r n m e n t B o n d s ( M L )
S o u r c e : T h o m s o n D a t a s t r e a m
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Decisive Insights:
It is advisable to retain a neutral weighting between equities and bonds
In terms of price/earnings ratios, the equity markets are already anticipating aneconomic decline and a drop in earnings. Equities now look distinctly cheap relative to
government bonds, although there are regional variations here, too.
Concerns about the economy and the (EU) debt crisis dominate the picture and are
apparently also beginning to have an effect on real economic sentiment indicators. This
widespread pessimism provides room for positive surprises.
The medium- to longer-term outlook for equities is positive. However, given the current
uncertainties, not least about progress in resolving the debt crisis, it is advisable to
retain a neutral weighting between equities and bonds.
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www.allianzglobalinvestors.de/capitalmarketanalysis
http://www.allianzglobalinvestors.de/capitalmarketanalysishttp://www.allianzglobalinvestors.de/capitalmarketanalysishttp://www.allianzglobalinvestors.de/capitalmarketanalysishttp://www.allianzglobalinvestors.de/capitalmarketanalysis7/28/2019 Allianzgi Cmm
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Disclaimer
This presentation has been issued and approved by Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH, a subsidiary of Allianz Global Investors AG (part of the Allianz Group).
Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH is a limited liability company incorporated under the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany with its registered office at
Mainzer Landstrasse 11-13, D-60329 Frankfurt/Main. Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH is licensed in the Federal Republic of Germany as a provider of
financial services(Finanzdienstleistungsinstitut); for the conduct of its business activities, Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH is subject to the supervision of the
German Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht(BaFin).
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This document is meant to provide a broad overview for discussion and/or information purposes. Furthermore, this document was not prepared with the intention of
providing legal or tax advice. The views and opinions expressed in this document, which are subject to change, are those of Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH
and its affiliated companies at the time of publication. The duplication, publication, or transmission of the contents of this document to unauthorised persons,
irrespective of the form, is not permitted.
While some of the data provided herein is derived from various published and unpublished sources, and is assumed to be correct and reliable, it has not been
independently verified. Therefore, Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of all data/information and will not
accept any liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.
The investment opportunities described herein are not guaranteed by Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH or affiliated companies within the Allianz Group. This
document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy securities. Statements made to recipients of this document are subject to the provisions of any underlying
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repeated in the future; consequently, there is no assurance that a portfolio will match the returns shown in this document.
This documentation must be seen as confidential.
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