1
Allocation of biomass (WP5)energy modeling approach and scenario assumptions
Joost van Stralen (ECN)
Biomass Futures workshop, November 26th, Brussels
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 22
Contents • Objective• RESolve• Biomass allocation in RESolve• Scenario assumptions• Conclusions
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 33
Objective
“Assess the role of bioenergy in different sectors”
Biomass
Electricity Heat Biofuels Chemicals Food …
• Develop a model that allows for biomass allocation over different sectors• Scenario analysis• Interaction with PRIMES
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 44
NREAP figures*
2005 2010 2015 20200
50
100
150
200
250
RES-E
TWh
2005 2010 2015 20200
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
RES-H
Mto
e
2005 2010 2015 20200
5
10
15
20
25
30
Biofuels
OtherBiodieselEtOH/ETBE
Mto
e
* 21 EU countries
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 55
Production-consumption chains
Production of biomass
Conversion into bio(-energy) commodities
Conversion into bio(-energy) products
Functions of the products Market (demand)
Land availability
(supply)
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 66
RESolve: overview
RESolve
Biomass allocation
RES-H/C:RESolve-H/C
Biofuels:RESolve-T
RES-E:RESolve-E
E-prices:COMPETES
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 77
RESolve-E*
Market simulation
Policy-based demand forrenewable electricity
Supply curvesbased on
technologycosts & potentials
•Risk•Transaction costs•Lead times
years•Market Green Price(s)•Technology mix•Trade flows
ADMIRE REBUS MODEL
scenarios
• Decoupling of grey market
• Barriers and distortions
• Realisable potentials
*Formerly known as ADMIRE-REBUS
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 88
Biomass – technology combinations
Biomass resource Co-firing Combustion Gasification Digestion CHP
Energy cropsForestrySolid manureLiquid manureMunicipal Solid WasteBarley residuesMaize residuesOilcrops residuesRapeseed residuesWheat residuesLandfill gasSewage sludgeIndustrial waste
xxx
xxxxx
xxx
xxxxxx
x
xxx
xxxxx
x
x x
xxxx
xxxxxxx
Per resource, start with lowest cost technology
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 99
RESolve-H
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4cost/benefit ratio
pene
tratio
n
Non-economic Dispersed All-or-nothing
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 1010
RESolve-T*
*Formerly known as BioTrans
Find the minimal cost allocations along the biofuel supply chain in a group of countries, given projections of demand (biofuel target), potentials and technological progress
EU countries
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 1111
How does it work?
Import & export
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 1212
BioethanolE05/E85 (not in trucks)
Oil crops
Pre-treated biomass
Pure vegetable oilonly intermediate product
Used fats/oils
Sugar crops
Starch crops
Oil extraction Transesterification ofvegetable oil (no palm oil)
Ethanol productionfrom sugar crops
Ethanol productionfrom starch crops
Ethanol production fromlignocellulosic crops
Pretreatment for gasification(torrefraction, pelletisation)
Fischer-Tropsch diesel production (incl. gasification)
Transesterificationof used fats/oils and palm oil
ETBE synthesis
DME production(incl. gasification)
SNG production(incl. gasification)
Import of ethanol from Brazil
BiodieselB05/B100
Bio-DMEDME
Bio-SNGCNG (not in trucks)
Bio-ETBEexcluded from the model
Bio-FT-dieselFT-diesel
Iso-butylene
Agricultural residues
Grassy crops
Forestry residues
Wood processing residues
Woody crops
Glycerine (80%)Pulp (from oil seeds)
Electricity
Stillage
Pulp (from sugar crops)
Resource
Process
Intermediate product
Potential biofuel(excluded from model)
BiofuelTYPE
Auxiliary product Byproduct
Wet manure Biogas production
Import of palm oilfrom Malaysia
Vinasses
What kind of categories are supplied?
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 1313
What kind of categories are supplied ?
• Fuels• Biodiesel, Bio-FT-diesel, Bio-DME, Bio-SNG• Bioethanol, Lignocellulosic ethanol, Biogas• Emissions• CO2, CH4, N2O as CO2-equivalents• Technologies• Biofuel producing technologies, incl. torrefaction&oil extraction• Countries and Regions• Europe: West, Central/East; Ukraine, Rest of World
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 1414
Cost supply curves for crops
Example: Austria in 2010Nuts2 level
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 1515
How to allocate biomass over the different sectors?
• E, H and T treated unbiased• Avoid double counting• Import and export of biomass• Emissions over the chain
New demand segments in RESolve-T:• Bio-electricity• Bio-heat
Extension of RESolve-T
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 1616
Biomass allocation in RESolve(-T)
Find the minimal cost allocations along the bio-energy supply chain in a group of countries, given projections of demands (biofuel target, demand for bio-electricity and -heat), potentials and technological progress
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 1717
RESolve-E RESolve-H
-demand bio-heat- RES-H support
-demand bio-electr- RES-E support
RESolve-T
-pfeedstock
-biomass pot. RES-E
RESolve-E
-pfeedstock
-biomass pot. RES-H
RES-E/H demand converged?
RESolve-H
NO
-Final RES-mix-avoided emissions-other indicators
YES
-demand bio-heat- RES-H support
-demand bio-electr- RES-E support
Connection of models - Flowchart
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 1818
How to deal with demand > supply?
FINE? NOT FINE?
Comparison with RES-E and -H alternatives
Initial pfeedstock↑
pfeedstock↑ till demand =
supply
Continue with iterations
Continue with iterations
General demand too large→ decrease from sector With lowest demand ‘pull’
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 1919
Current statusRESolve-E RESolve-H
-demand bio-heat- RES-H support
-demand bio-electr- RES-E support
RESolve-T
-pfeedstock
-biomass pot. RES-E
RESolve-E
-pfeedstock
-biomass pot. RES-H
RES-E/H demand converged?
RESolve-H
NO
-Final RES-mix-avoided emissions-other indicators
YES
-demand bio-heat- RES-H support
-demand bio-electr- RES-E support
Current status
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 2020
Scenarios
Pessimistic
availability
of biomass
Optimistic
availability
of biomass
Slow development
non-biomass RES
‘NREAP’
Large biomassMedium biomass
Low biomass
Fast development
non-biomass RES
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 2121
CASES
• Zoom in at NREAP scenario in more detail
• CASE 1: Achieving a maximum biofuel contribution
• CASE 2: More electrification in the transport sector
• CASE 3: Additional RES-H support• CASE 4: Focus on minimizing GHG emissions
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 2222
Conclusions
• A methodology for biomass allocation has been developed (D5.1)
• Implementation is going on → coupling RESolve-X models. RESolve-T used for allocation of biomass
• Draft scenarios have been developed• Interaction with PRIMES needs to be
worked on
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 26/11/2010 2323
Questions?