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Almir barbassa china india_nov2007

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América Latina frente al Crecimiento de India y China Almir Barbassa CFO and Investor Relations Officer November 2007
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Page 1: Almir barbassa china india_nov2007

América Latina frente al Crecimiento de India y China

Almir BarbassaCFO and Investor Relations OfficerNovember 2007

Page 2: Almir barbassa china india_nov2007
Page 3: Almir barbassa china india_nov2007

Petrobras activities in India

Cauvary BasinONGC 55%

OIL 20%Petrobras 25%

EXPLORATORY PHASE

Krishna-Godavari BasinONGC 40%

StatoilHydro 20%Cairn 10%

Petrobras 30%DESCOVERY UNDER EVALUATION

Mahanadi Nec BasinONGC 60%

Petrobras 40%EXPLORATORY PHASE

Petrobras has recently started exploration activities in India:

June/07 - Petrobras and ONGC (Indian National Oil Company) signed an agreement to exchange participations in 3 Indian blocks and 3 Brazilian blocks

October/07 – A farm-out agreement settled Petrobras entrance as a minor stakeholder in the blocks KG-98/2, MN-98/3 and CY-2001/1 in the Indian Coast

The Block KG-98/2 has a discover under evaluation and the other two are still in the exploratory phase.

Petrobras is not the operator in any of the blocks, but has an option to be a “technical advisor”.

Page 4: Almir barbassa china india_nov2007

Trade balance with India

Low dependency of Brazil in relation to India

Although the commercial flow (exports + imports) between Brazil and Indian has grown in the last 10 years, from US$ 370 million to US$ 2,4 billion, India still accounts for a very small portion of Brazil´s trade balance:

• India represents 0,6% of Brazilian total exports

• India represents 1,6% of Brazilian total imports. The main product is Diesel (47%).

Strong commercial relations between Petrobras and India

• India represents 24% of Petrobras imports of oil products:

• It represents 28 thousand bpd

Page 5: Almir barbassa china india_nov2007

Petrobras activities in China

Petrobras is looking for opportunities in China and its current activities include:

• A representative office in Beijing, inaugurated in 2004 to support the sale of oil to China and to prospect new market opportunities for the Company in Asia.

• Agreements with two of the Chinese national oil companies (Sinopec and CNPC) for the development of joint businesses

• China responds for 12% (40 thousand bpd) of Petrobras oil exports

Page 6: Almir barbassa china india_nov2007

Structure of the Oil sector in China

State Council

State Committee for Development Planning

State Committee of Economy and

Commerce

Ministry of Land and Natural Resources

Ministry of Foreign Relations and Economic

Cooperation

China National Petroleum

Company (CNPC)90% state ownedReserves:10.997 MM bbl oil41.147 Bcf natural gas5

Production:2,12 MM bpd oil2,407 Bcf natural gasRefining: 1,990 MM bpdSales: 1,548 MM bpd

China National Petrochemical

Corp. (Sinopec)

55% state ownedReserves3.257 MM bbl oil2.888 Bcf natural gasProduction:0,742 MM bpd oil0, 514 Bcf natural gasRefining: 2,667 MM bpdSales: 1,525 MM bpd

China National Offshore Oil

Corp. (CNOOC)

71% state ownedReserves1.425 MM bbl oil3.548 Bcf natural gasProduction0,229 MM bpd oil0,273 Bcf natural gasRefining: noneSales: none

China Chemical Import & Export

Corp. (Sinochem)

SinoChem is a trader of oil, oil products and petrochemicals

Source: PIW Top 50 2004

Page 7: Almir barbassa china india_nov2007

With Brazil´s self sufficiency in oil, achieved last year and the new promising discoveries, Petrobras will become a big oil exporter.

1875

2050

2191

22962374

2421

18521922

19682039

21012170

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Production Demand

Thou

sand

bpd

Petrobras Oil Production and Brazilian Demand

Petrobras as a net exporter – looking for new markets

Surplus (251 th. bpd)

Page 8: Almir barbassa china india_nov2007

China, a huge market

Products Unity China USAGrain (1) Millions of Tons 382 278Meat (1) Millions of Tons 63 37Petroleum (1) Millions barrels/day 7 20Coal (2) Equivalent in M.Tons of Oil 800 574Steel (2) Millions of Tons 258 104Fertilizers (2) Millions of Tons 40 20Celular Phones (2) Millions in use 269 159Televisions (3) Millions in use 374 243Refrigerators (4) Millions produced 14 12Computers (5) Millions in use 36 190Cars (2) Millions in use 24 226

Figures of 2004; (2) Figures of 2003; (3) Figures of 2000; (4) Figures of 2001, (5) Figures of 2002

Spurce:Earth Policy Institute (EPI)

China is a potential market for all kinds of products, including oil

Page 9: Almir barbassa china india_nov2007

China, a potential market for Petrobras

China: from net exporter in 1995 to imports over 2.9 million barrels today

Crude Oil Trade - China

0400800

1.2001.6002.0002.4002.8003.200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006Th

ousa

nd b

arre

ls p

er d

ay

Imports Exports

Page 10: Almir barbassa china india_nov2007

China, a potential market for Petrobras

Oil consumption per capita (barrels per year per inhabitant ): China - 2Europe - 15USA – 20

Main contributions for increasing demand of oil and oil products:PetrochemicalsHigh demand for Naphtha as raw material for the new petrochemical complexes, following the

increase in GDP

Thermo power plantsDeficit in energy generation and distribution capacity associated with difficulties in coal

transportation will increase the demand for fuel oil in the thermo power plants and for diesel in the industrial small and medium generators

North America

19%

Europe w/o ex-URSS

8%

China32%

Midlle East16%

Others25%

Contribution to the additional oil demand in 2005

Source: IEA

0

5

10

15

20

25

USA Europe &Eurasia

China Japan Korea Brazil

Oil demand (million bpd)

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006

Page 11: Almir barbassa china india_nov2007

China, a potential market for Petrobras

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1978

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Cars Trucks

New licensed cars

thou

sand

uni

ts

Source: Anfavea

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1985 1990 1995 2000

ChinaBrazilKorea

Total vehicles per 1.000 inhabitants

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Transportation:Income effect and biggest motorization will increase the demand for oil products and can also be an opportunity for Brazilian ethanolAgriculture will also increase demand for diesel

Page 12: Almir barbassa china india_nov2007

Recent opportunity in Asia

New opportunities in Asia, widen Petrobras presence in the Region

Petrobras has recently signed a purchase document to acquire in Japan:

• Refinery with capacity of 100 thousand bpd

• Crude oil and products terminal with storage capacity of 9.6 million barrels

• 3 piers with capacity to receive product vessels of up to 97 thousand

deadweight tonnage (dwt)

• Mono buoy for Very Large Crude vessels (VLCC) of up to 280 thousand dwt

It is planned the use of terminal capacity in order to boost the commercialization of biofuels in Japan and other Asian markets and complement current trading of crude oil and products into Asian market. Petrobras will start refining operations in Asia for the first time.


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