Alternative Drivetrain Markets Forecast of Hybrid, Plug-in Electric, and
Natural Gas Car and Truck Markets
October 3, 2012
Dave Hurst
Senior Research Analyst
Section 1 » Company Overview
Section 2 » Demand Drivers
Section 3 » Fuel Availability
Section 3 » Electric Vehicles
Section 4 » Natural Gas Vehicles
Table of Contents
2 ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Company Overview
Introduction
Pike Research, a part of Navigant’s Energy Practice,
provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology
markets.
The team’s research methodology combines supply-side
industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand
assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to
provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy
ecosystem.
Sector Focus:
Smart Energy
Smart Utilities
Smart Transportation
Smart Industry
Smart Buildings
Research Services:
Research Reports
Subscription Advisory Services
Consulting & Custom Research
• Go-To-Market Strategy
• Custom Market Analysis
• Market Sizing & Forecasts
• Primary Research
• Technology Evaluation
• Commercial Due Diligence
• Competitive Benchmarking
• Strategic Advisory Sessions
©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
Smart Energy Ecosystem
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6 ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Advisory Services
SMART
ENERGY
SMART
UTILITIES
SMART
TRANSPORTATION
SMART
INDUSTRY
SMART
BUILDINGS
Solar Energy
Wind Energy
Emerging Renewables
Biofuels
Biopower
Energy Storage
Advanced Batteries
Fuel Cells
Distributed Generation
Microgrids
Electric Vehicles
Light Electric Vehicles
Natural Gas Vehicles
Advanced Transportation Technologies
Building Energy Management
Building Automation Systems
Energy Efficient Lighting
Smart Building Technologies
Green Buildings Demand Response
Smart Cities
Industrial Innovations
Smart Meters
Transmission Systems
Distribution Optimization
Home Energy Management
Utility Data Analytics
Utility Communication Networks
Smart Grid Technologies
Smart Grid Global Analysis
Utility Innovations
Commercial Vehicle Innovations
Research Methodology
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INFORMATION COLLECTION
Supply Side
Demand Side
MARKET ANALYSIS
Primary Research Secondary Research
• Executive Interviews
• Vendor Briefings
• Product Demos and Tours
• Company News & Financials
• Technology & Product Specs
• Government Data
• Economic, Demographic Data
• Consumer Surveys
• Business Leader Surveys
• Case Studies
• Reference Customers
Qualitative Quantitative
• Business Models & Trends
• Technology Issues
• Policy & Regulatory Factors
• Competitive Landscape
• Profiles of Key Players
• Market Sizing
• Segmentation by Technology,
Geography, Application, etc.
• Market Share Analysis
• Forecasts by Segment
Smart Transportation Practice
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Electric Vehicles
Light Electric Vehicles
Natural Gas Vehicles
Commercial Vehicle Innovations
Advanced Transportation Technologies
SMART
TRANSPORTATION
Electric Vehicles
9 ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Reports Published:
3Q12 Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts
3Q12 Electric Vehicles in China
3Q12 Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment in Europe
2Q12 Plug-in Electric Vehicles
1Q12 Pike Pulse Report: Electric Vehicle Batteries
4Q11 Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey
4Q11 Electric Vehicle Telematics
4Q11 Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2012
4Q11 Vehicle to Grid Technologies
4Q11 Electric Vehicle Batteries
3Q11 Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment
3Q11 Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts
2Q11 Pike Pulse Report – Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment
1Q11 Electric Vehicle Cyber Security
4Q10 Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2011
4Q10 Electric Vehicles in Asia Pacific
Future Reports (Subject to Change):
3Q12 Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment
4Q12 Pike Pulse: Plug-in Electric Vehicles
4Q12 Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey
4Q12 Electric Vehicle Batteries
4Q12 Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts
4Q12 Pike Pulse: Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment
4Q12 Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2013
4Q12 Electric Vehicles: Europe
1Q13 Electric Vehicles Tracker: North America 1Q13
1Q13 Electric Vehicle Data Analytics
1Q13 Pike Pulse Report: Electric Vehicle Batteries
2Q13 Vehicle to Grid Technologies
2Q13 Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Tracker 2Q13
• Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
• Battery Electric Vehicles
• Hybrid Electric Vehicles
• Electric Vehicle Battery Technologies
• Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure
• Consumer Attitudes, Preferences, and Behavior
Natural Gas Vehicles
10 ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Reports Published:
3Q12 Propane/Autogas Vehicles
3Q12 Natural Gas Trucks and Buses
3Q12 Light Duty Natural Gas Vehicles
1Q11 Natural Gas Vehicles
Future Reports (Subject to Change):
1Q13 Market Data: Natural Gas Vehicles
1Q13 Research Brief: Natural Gas Refueling Infrastructure
• Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
• Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
• Natural Gas Refueling Infrastructure
• Light Duty Vehicles
• Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks and Buses
Demand Drivers
» Petroleum fuel costs
» Government influence: purchase incentives and emissions
restrictions
» Lower total costs of ownership
» Greening of fleets
» Increasing alternative fuel availability
Vehicle Market Demand Drivers
12 ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» Petroleum-based fuels increase about 10% per year (rolling average)
» Diesel has consistently cost more than gasoline since mid-2009
Petroleum Fuel Costs
13 ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Weekly Petroleum Fuel Prices by Type, United States:
January 2000-September 2012
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
($/G
all
on
)
Gasoline Diesel
(Source: Energy Information Agency)
» Based on annual growth of 9% in gasoline and 10% in diesel:
› Gas will be $5.95 in 2017 and reach $7.74 by 2020
› Diesel will be $6.60 in 2017 and $8.79 by 2020
Forecasted Petroleum Costs
14 ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Average Petroleum Fuel Prices by Type, United States: 2012-2020
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
($/G
allo
n)
Gasoline
Diesel
(Source: Pike Research)
» 54.5 mpg combined by 2025
» Anticipated to add $2,000 to passenger cars, saving $5,200 to $6,600 in
fuel costs
Light Duty Fuel Economy Requirements
15 ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Corporate Average Fuel Economy by Segment, United States: 2012-2025
(Source: Environmental Protection Agency)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
(Miles/G
allo
n)
Passenger Cars
Light Trucks
» Limits begin with 2014 MY trucks
» Expected to add $6,000 to $10,000 to trucks
Medium/Heavy Duty Truck
Fuel Economy Requirements
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United States Truck Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations
(Source: Environmental Protection Agency)
Component Combination Tractors
(MY 2017)
MD/HD Pickups/Vans
(MY 2018)
Vocational Trucks
(MY 2017)
Fuel
Economy
Phase in to 2017 limits of 11.8
gal/1,000 ton-miles and 6.5
gal/1,000 ton-miles depending
on cab type and weight class
10% consumption
reduction in gas
vehicles;
15% consumption
reduction in diesel
vehicles
36.7 gal/1,000 ton-miles for Class 3-5
trucks
22.1 gal/1,000 ton-miles for Class 6-7
trucks
21.8 gal/1,000 ton-miles for Class 8
trucks
Emissions
Phase in to 2017 limits of
120 g CO2/ton-mile and
66 g CO2/ton-mile depending
on cab type and weight class
12% GHG reduction in
gas vehicles;
17% GHG reduction in
diesel vehicles
373 g CO2/ton-mile for Class 3-5
trucks
225 g CO2/ton-mile for Class 6-7
trucks
222 g CO2/ton-mile for Class 8 trucks
» Light Duty
› BEV/PHEV from $2,500 up to $7,500 federal incentives
› BEV/PHEV/NGV state incentives
› Other incentives:
‒ Reduced taxes
‒ High occupancy lane access
‒ Parking benefits
» Medium/Heavy Duty Trucks
› BEV/PHEV from $2,500 up to $7,500 federal incentives
› California – $10,000 to $40,000 HVIP grants
› Other state incentives
Alternative Drive Purchase Incentives
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» For higher mileage lifetime, BEVs’ operating costs are the least expensive over the
lifetime: $34,995 (with incentives)
» For lower mileage lifetimes, fuel efficient gas engines lead: $29,102
Passenger Car Total Cost of Ownership
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Assumptions:
Gasoline price: $3.75/gal
Electricity cost: $0.1038/kWh
CNG price: $2.05/gal
PHEV-40 driven on electric
power 80% of lifetime miles
PHEV-10 driven on electric
power 50% of lifetime miles
Federal tax credits claimed:
$7,500 on PHEV-40/BEV and
$2,500 on PHEV-10
Estimated Total Cost of Ownership for Small
Sedans by Lifetime Miles, United States: 2012
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
BEV-100Mid-Size
HEV<2L Gas
(45.3 mpg)
4-Cyl<2L Gas(30 mpg)
CNG(28 mpg)
PHEV-10 PHEV-40
(To
tal C
os
t o
f O
wn
ers
hip
)
120,000 Lifetime Miles
75,000 Lifetime Miles
(Source: Pike Research)
» Low purchase price gasoline pickups are challenging to beat at gas prices
below $5/gal
» CNG trucks are often heavier duty to accommodate larger cylinders
Pickup Truck Total Cost of Ownership
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Assumptions:
120,000 lifetime miles
Gasoline price: $3.75/gal
Electricity cost $0.1038/kWh
CNG price: $2.05/gal
Propane price: $2.50/gal
Estimated Total Cost of Ownership for Light Duty
Trucks by Cost Type, United States: 2012
(Source: Pike Research)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
GasolinePickup
Pickup FFV PropanePickup
CNG Pickup GasolinePickup Crew-
Cab
Hybrid PickupCrew-Cab
(To
tal C
os
t o
f O
wn
ers
hip
)
Operating Costs
Purchase Price
» The market for MD trucks hinges on cost recovery for incremental costs of hybrid and
plug-in electric trucks:
› Fuel prices continue to rise improving the equation for electric
› Incremental cost recovery ranges from two to six years
» Driving range limits battery electric to inner city operations
Medium Duty Total Cost of Ownership
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Annual Fuel Cost Comparison, Medium Duty Trucks
Vehicle Miles
traveled
per year
Fuel
Economy
Fuel used
per year
Fuel price Annual
fuel costs
Diesel MD 20,000 8 mpg 2,500 gal $4.00/gal $10,000
BEV MD 20,000 N/A 16 MW $0.09/kWh $1,440
Gas HEV MD 20,000 10 mpg 2,000 gal $3.80/gal $7,600
(Source: Pike Research)
» Funding for “green” vehicles may come from separate social
responsibility or marketing budgets, otherwise cost recovery
is critical
» Drive cycle will dictate technology
» Companies/governments that track emissions may be able to
justify additional investment
Greening of Fleets
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Fuel Availability
» Biodiesel remains more expensive than diesel due to production costs
($3.83/gal B20 vs. $3.75/gal diesel in July 2012)
» About 620 stations offer B20 in the United States
Biodiesel Availability
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Biodiesel Mandated Demand and Installed
Production Capacity, North America: 2012-2022
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
(Bil
lio
n G
allo
ns
pe
r Y
ear)
Mandated Demand
Installed Supply
(Source: Pike Research)
» Almost two-thirds of North American sales will be to residential
customers in 2012; Private networks account for 17% of EVCE sales
» Public charging critical in Asia Pacific
EV Charging Equipment Sales by Segment
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EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales by Segment, World Markets: 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
North America Asia Pacific Western Europe
Private
Public
Workplace
Residential
(Source: Pike Research)
» Annual private charging equipment sales will reach 106,516 units by 2020
» Installing EVCE can add 5% to 10% to the cost of owning PEVs
EV Charging Equipment Impact
on PEV Sales
25 ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Annual EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales by Segment,
North America: 2012-2020
(Source: Pike Research)
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(EV
CE
Un
its)
Private
Public
Workplace
» Over 125 new stations per year through 2016; the majority will be open
to public
» 52 LNG stations currently available, anticipating about 150 new LNG stations
through 2014
NGV Refueling Infrastructure
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Cumulative Natural Gas Refueling Stations,
United States: 2012-2019
-
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(NG
V S
tati
on
s)
(Source: Pike Research)
Electric Vehicles
Key OEM Vehicle Development
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OEM Product Plan Segment Timeline
BMW ActiveE
BMWi products
Small car
Multiple
2012-2013
2013+
Ford Motor Co. Transit Connect Electric
Focus Electric
CMAX Energi (PHEV)
Fusion/Mondeo Energi (PHEV)
Van
Small car
Small car
Midsize car
2011-2012
2012+
Fall 2012+
2013+
General Motors Volt /Ampera (PHEV)
e-Spark/Sail (BEV)
Cadillac ELR (PHEV)
Small car
Small car
Luxury car
2010+
2013+
2013+
Honda Motor FIT (BEV)
Accord PHEV
Small car
Midsize car
2012+
2013+
Hyundai i10 Blueon (BEV)
Elantra Electric
Sonata PHEV
Small car
Small car
Midsize car
2012+
2013+
2013+
Nissan LEAF (BEV)
e-NV200 (BEV)
PHEV Sedan
Small car
Van
Midsize car
2010+
2014+
2015+
Tesla Motors Roadster
Model S
Model X
Luxury car
Luxury car
Small SUV
2009+
2012+
2014+
Toyota Prius PHV
RAV4 Electric
Midsize car
Small SUV
2012+
2012+
» Battery costs expected to fall 34% by 2017
» Potential to reduce battery pack costs by $4,000 to $6,500 by 2017
» Optimal price point of PEVs is $23,750 in United States
Li-ion Prices
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Lithium Ion Battery Selling Price, World Markets: 2011-2017
(Source: Pike Research)
» Non-plug-in hybrids are leading electrified vehicles through 2020
» PHEVs expected to outsell BEVs
› 1.4 million vs. 1.1 million cumulatively by 2020
Electric Vehicles in North America
30 ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Annual HEV/PHEV/BEV Sales, North America: 2012-2020
-
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(Millio
ns)
BEV
PHEV
HEV
(Source: Pike Research)
» MD hybrids anticipated to have a compound annual growth rate of 35%
» Plug-in trucks are not anticipated to see significant numbers prior to 2015
Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Drivetrains
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Annual Medium/Heavy Duty Hybrid Electric Truck Sales,
United States: 2012-2017
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Veh
icle
s
(Source: Pike Research)
Natural Gas Vehicles
» CNG pricing is more stable than gasoline due to low natural gas component
» Petroleum is 65% of gasoline price and 60% of diesel price
CNG Cost Components
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Cost Components of Transportation CNG Fuel,
United States: 2012
(Source: Pike Research)
Wholesale Natural Gas Costs
17%
Transmission Costs16%
Compression & Cooling Costs
41%
Labor & Profit26%
» Majority of North American sales are light duty pickup trucks and vans
» MD/HD trucks and buses growing at slightly slower pace than light duty
vehicles
NGV Sales
34 ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Natural Gas Vehicle Sales by Segment, North America: 2012-2019
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Veh
icle
s)
M/HD Buses
M/HD Trucks
Light Duty Vehicles
(Source: Pike Research)
» Market big enough for all current technology
» BEV passenger cars will be cost leaders in the long run
» NGVs and HEVs are proving to be leaders in medium and
heavy duty truck markets
» Diesel trucks are still hard to beat financially, but rising fuel
costs will tip that equation in favor of alternatives
Conclusions
35 ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
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