2/3/2011
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Paul S. Sarbanes Transit in Parks
Technical Assistance CenterAlternative Transportation Systems (ATS)
T i i f F d l L dTraining for Federal Land
Management Agencies
ALTERNATIVE FUELS COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS TRAININGTRAINING
Today's Presenters
Stephen Reich, Interim DirectorCenter for Urban Transportation Research
University of South Florida
Sisinnio Concas, Sr. Research AssociateCenter for Urban Transportation Research
University of South Florida
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Agenda
• Section I: Underpinnings of bus fleet life‐cycle cost‐benefit analysis (50 minutes)– Session Recap ( 5 min.)Session Recap ( 5 min.)
• Section II: Using the BuFFeT© model (45 min.)– BuFFeT© set‐up and use (30 min.)
– Application example (20 minutes)
– Questions (10 minutes)
Poll Question 4 ‐ 6
• Are you currently operating any alternative fueled transit vehicle?
• How many alternative fuels vehicles do you currently operate?currently operate?
• What type of alternative fuel do the vehicles use?
Question
Why did you select the type of alternative fuel transit vehicle you are currently operating?
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Question
Why are you considering operating an alternative fueled transit vehicle?
Bus Fleet Life‐Cycle Analysis
• Overview of Alternative Fuels
– Analysis of current and future trends
• Overview of Cost Analysis
Lif l b fl l i– Life‐cycle bus fleet evaluation
– Input requirements
Transportation Fuel Facts
• The U.S. uses 382 million gallons of gasoline per day
• Transportation makes up 72% of the US Oil demanddemand
• U.S. imports 60% of domestic demand
• Fossil fuels are finite
• Environmental consequences of existing fuels are well documented
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Alternative Fuel Considerations
• Motivation – air quality, noise…
• Fuel availability
• Access to maintenance expertise
• Climate• Climate
• Fueling time
• Vehicle range and duty cycle
• Facility modifications
• Cost
Alternative Fuels
• Biodiesel
• Electric
• LPG
• Methanol
• Ethanol
• Hydrogen
• Natural Gas (CNG &
LNG)
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Gasoline/Diesel
Emissions Supply Cost Safety DeliveryEnergy
Content*
* Heating value 1,000 Btu/gal compared to gasoline/diesel
Biodiesel
• “Biodiesel is a domestically produced, renewable fuel that can be manufactured from vegetable oils, animal fats, or recycled restaurant greases Biodiesel is saferestaurant greases. Biodiesel is safe, biodegradable, and reduces serious air pollutants such as particulates, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and air toxics.”
Biodiesel
• Operates in combustion‐ignition
• Made from new or recycled vegetable oils and animal fats
S b d f i il d• Soybean, used frying oil, peanuts, cottonseed, sunflower seeds, and canola
• Can be used pure or blended as an alternative fuel for diesel engines ‐ B 100 & B 20
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Biodiesel
• Minimal engine modification
• Reduces EPA‐targeted emissions
• Renewable resources
• Local production
• Cost – feedstock alone can be expensive
• B 20 – typically more $’s
• CI engines only
• Elastomers – neatLocal production
• Current delivery system
• Lubricity additive ULSD
Elastomers neat
• Cold climate issues
• Production limitations
Biodiesel
Emissions Supply Cost Safety DeliveryEnergy
Content*
* Heating value 1,000 Btu/gal compared to gasoline/diesel
Biodiesel
• EPA Tier I and Tier II testing to quantify emission characteristics and health effects. That study found that B 20 reduced total hydrocarbons by up to 30%, Carbon Monoxide up to 20%, and total particulate matter up to 15%.
• US DOE found that biodiesel production and use, in comparison to petroleum diesel, produces 78.5% less CO2 emissions
• Nontoxic and biodegradable
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FLMAs Using Biodiesel
• Harpers Ferry National Historic Park, WV
• Assateague Island National Seashore, MD
• Yellowstone National Park, WY, MT, ID
• Channel Islands National Park, CA
• Rocky Mountain National Park, CO
• Glacier National Park, MT
• Scotts Bluff National Monument, NE
• “Ethanol is an alcohol‐based alternative fuel produced by fermenting and distilling starch crops that have been converted into simple
Ethanol
crops that have been converted into simple sugars.”*
*Source: US DOE
• Used in spark ignition engine
• Fermentation of agricultural feedstock
Ethanol
• Gasohol ‐ 10% ethanol 90% gasoline
• E85 ‐ 15% gasoline 85% Ethanol
• Component of reformulated gasoline (ETBE)
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Ethanol
• Higher energy density than methanol
• Renewable feedstock
• Water soluble
• High NOx emissions
• Special engine oil required
• “Food vs. fuel”
• Cost• Flex fuel vehicles – over 6
million today
• Cost
• Low energy content vs. gas
Ethanol
• E 85 has high oxygen content
• Fewer exhaust emissions
• Reduces greenhouse gas emissions (CO )• Reduces greenhouse gas emissions (CO2)
• Non‐toxic, water soluble and biodegradable
• Although CO2 is released during ethanol production and combustion, it is recaptured as a nutrient to the crops that are used in its production.
Ethanol
Emissions Supply Cost Safety DeliveryEnergy
Content*
*Heating value 1,000 Btu/gal compared to gasoline
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FLMAs Using Ethanol
• Mammoth Cave National Park, KY
• An alcohol fuel (also known as methyl alcohol) that is produced from methane
• Once produced by distillation of wood
Methanol
• A potent poison
• Used in automotive antifreezes, in rocket fuels, and as a solvent
Methanol
• Low NOx, No sulfur
• “Flex Fuel” with M 85
• Contains oxygen = leaner combustion
• Byproduct of combustion = formaldehyde
• Invisible flame
• Cold start issues M 100
• Abundant feedstock
• Water soluble
• More toxic than gasoline
• ½ the range of gasoline
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Methanol
Emissions Supply Cost Safety DeliveryEnergy
Content*
* Heating value 1,000 Btu/gal compared to gasoline
• LP or LPG of which propane, ethane and butane are the most common
• Largest alternative use in US
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
• Produced in association with natural gas and crude oil refining
• Relatively low CO2 emissions
• Kept liquefied using high pressure
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
• Lower levels of CO, hydrocarbons, NOx
• Most domestically produced
• Susceptibility to contaminants
• Greater quantity required
• Mainly fleet fuel• Reduced evaporative
losses
• Modest pressure
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Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Emissions Supply Cost Safety DeliveryEnergy
Content*
?
* Heating value 1,000 Btu/gal compared to gasoline
FLMAs Using Liquefied Petroleum Gas
• Mammoth Cave National Park, KY
• Acadia National Park, ME
• Zion National Park, UT
• Not technically a fuel
• Entire “energy chain” must be considered
Electric
• Battery continues as a poor transportation source
• Plug‐in electric hybrids have potential
• Hybrid electrics now in widespread deployment
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Electric Hybrid Buses
• There are “series,” “parallel,” & “series‐parallel”
• “Series” systems currently the most popular in heavy duty transit while light‐duty vehicles use several different configurationsseveral different configurations
• A power plant runs a generator that charges batteries that power an electric motor that propels the vehicle
• Power plant can be fueled many different ways
Electric Hybrid – “series”
System Controller
Engine
EngineGeneratorElectric Drive Motor
Ge
ne
rato
r
Batteries
ElectricMotor
MotorEnergy StorageSystem Controller
Electric Hybrid Buses
• Diesel – most common – biodiesel
• Gasoline – gaining popularity – can use E85
• CNG
• Hydrogen internal combustion (HICE)
• Hydrogen (or other fuel) fuel cells
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Fuel Cell
• A fuel cell is essentially a battery using an external fuel
supply, connected to an electric motor
• Produces electricity, water and heat using fuel and
oxygen from the atmosphere
• Can be 3 times more efficient than I.C. Engine
• Invented in 1839 – used by NASA in the ’60’s
• Can use hydrogen or other fuels
Electric
• No tailpipe emissions
• 10‐50% less primary energy
• Off‐peak rates
• Costs spread over longer
• Range
• High initial capital cost
• Time to charge
• Battery development • Costs spread over longer
life (fixed site)
• Low maintenance costs
y pneeded
Electric
Emissions Supply Cost Safety DeliveryEnergy
Content*
*Heating value 1,000 Btu/gal compared to gasoline/diesel
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FLMAs Using Electric
• Patuxent National Wildlife Research Refuge, MD
• Golden Gate National Recreation Area, CA
• Yosemite National Park, CA
• Carl Sandburg Home National Historic Site, NC
• Used as heating fuel and for electricity generation, represents 25% of the U. S. energy demand
• Primarily composed of methane, it is used as a
Natural Gas
y p ,motor vehicle fuel in either compressed (CNG) or liquefied (LNG) form
• LNG kept liquefied using low temperature
• Plentiful supplies
CNG
• CO minus 70%
• NOx 87% lower
• Little or no evaporative emissions (dedicated)
• Bi fuel friendly
• High pressure storage –cylinder weight and size
• High ignition temp unsuitable for CI’s
• Bi‐fuel friendly
• Historically sacrificed NOx
‐ solved
• Methane – greenhouse
• Fueling time
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CNG
Emissions Supply Cost Safety DeliveryEnergy
Content*
* Heating value 1,000 Btu/gal compared to gasoline/diesel
FLMAs Using CNG
• Grand Canyon National Park, AZ
• Cabrillo National Monument, CA
• Lake Roosevelt National Recreation Area, WA
• Lake Mead National Recreation Area, NV, AZ
LNG
• Emissions benefits with CNG
• Higher storage density than CNG
• Weathering – venting of methane
• Fuel degradation
• Must be at low temps. • Better range than CNG • (‐195 to ‐260º F)
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LNG
Emissions Supply Cost Safety DeliveryEnergy
Content*
*Heating value 1,000 Btu/gal compared to gasoline/diesel
Hydrogen
• Can be used directly or fuel cells
• Derived from any source containing “H”
• Production by electrolysis or steam
reformulation
• OEM’s investing in development
Hydrogen
• Most abundant element
• Compatible with standard I.C. Engines
• Contains no carbon
• No current distribution
• Prohibitively expensive
• Currently economically derived from natural gas
• In fuel cell only emission is H2O
• Limited range
• Flashback tendency
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Hydrogen
Emissions Supply Cost Safety DeliveryEnergy
Content*
*Heating value 1,000 Btu/gal compared to gasoline/diesel
FLMA Using Hydrogen
• Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, HI
The Outlook
• No “silver bullet” – combination of short term tactics and long‐term strategies required
• Current fuel consumption and emissions for transport in not sustainable long term
• Alternative fuels have immediate potential
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The Outlook ‐ Tactical
• Fleets with centralized infrastructure more conducive to alternatives
• Bio fuels as transitional – biodiesel & ethanol
• Plug‐in hybrids in the short term
• More aggressive fuel efficiency standards
• Increased use of public transportation
Life‐Cycle Cost Analysis
The cost comparison is conducted on a total and per‐mile basis, summarized by two measures:
• Total Annualized Cost ($/mile) – Represents the sum of vehicle replacement, facility modification (spread out over the bus life) annual maintenance and fueling coststhe bus life), annual maintenance and fueling costs. – Total Annualized Cost – Local Share – Same as Total Annualized
Cost, but reduced by the share capital acquisition costs covered at the Federal level
• Total Social Annualized Cost ($/mile) – This value includes the contribution of alternative fuels in reducing pollution emission. The impact of emission reduction is summarized in the Results worksheet. This value is also reported on a per‐mile basis.
Capital costs:– Bus acquisition cost per vehicle– Date each bus entered service (model year, length,
seating capacity for each bus)
Operating costs:
Cost Information
Operating costs:– Life‐to‐date mileage per bus– Fuel economy (average miles per gallon or equivalent
sales unit)– Fuel price per gallon or per equivalent sales unit– Fuel cost per mile– Life‐to‐date labor costs per bus– Life‐to‐date parts costs per bus– Life‐to‐date other costs per bus (if any/if reported)
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Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Costs
Re‐fueling facilities / operation Fueling facility modification cost Infrastructure maintenance cost Storage facilities costs Fuel required per weekdayFuel required per weekday Tank/compressor capacity (gal/cfm) Training Safety effortsOutreach/public awareness effortsMid‐life fuel cell replacement interval and costs (H2)Other notable items
ABQRide / Albuquerque, NM DART / Dallas, TX
LBT / Long Beach, CA LYNX / Orlando, FL
MBTA / Boston, MA NJT / New Jersey Transit
OCTA / Orange County, CA OmniTrans / San Ber’dino, CA
Palm Tran / West Palm Beach, FL PSTA / Pinellas, FL
RFTA / Aspen, CO RTA / Riverside, CA
RTD / D CO RTS / G i ill FL
Data Source: Survey of Transit Agencies
RTD / Denver, CO RTS / Gainesville, FL
SDMTS / San Diego, CA MTA / Los Angeles, CA
SEPTA / Philadelphia, PA SunTran / Tucson, AZ
HART / Tampa, FL AC Transit / Oakland, CA
BJCTA / Birmingham, AL CNYCentro / Syracuse, NY
GCRTA / Cleveland, OH GET / Bakersfield, CA
NCTD / Oceanside, CA SunLine / Thousand Oaks, CA
The Bus / Honolulu, HI Valley Metro / Phoenix, AZ
JTA / Jacksonville, FL Sound Transit / Tacoma, WA
Total Fleet Reported
67
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Hybrid Electric/Gasoline
Hybrid Electric/BioDiesel
Composite Fleet Summary: Total Buses by Fuel Type
34431535
331
277
165
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Number of Buses
CNG
Diesel
BioDiesel
LNG
Hybrid Electric
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0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
0.82 Operating Costs
‐
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
ULSD CNG LNG LPG BIODIESEL HYBRID ULSD HYBRID GASOLINE
HYBRID BIODIESEL
0.19
0.12
0.19
‐
0.28
0.17
0.12 0.11
0.14
0.31
‐
0.12
0.35
0.07
0.17
Labor Parts
4.0
5.0
6.0
MP
G
Average MPG : Diesel vs. Hybrid Electric-BioDiesel Buses
1.0
2.0
3.0
2005 2006 2007
Bus Model Year
Average MPG - Diesel Average MPG - Hybrid Elec.-BioDiesel.
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
Bus Total Operating Costs : Diesel vs. Hybrid Electric (2007 ($))
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
1998 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007
Bus Model Year
Ave. per mile Operating Cost - Diesel Ave. per mile Operating Cost - Hybrid Electric
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Q&A and Raise Your Hand• Use the Q&A menu to submit questions.
– To ask a question, type your question in the Q&A text box, and then click Ask.
– Click the Raise your hand icon signals you need to initiate 1:1 chat
Direct Your Questions via Phone
• Push *8 keys on your phone• This signal will place you in a queue
• When it is your turn, the moderator will announcemoderator will announce your city
• You will hear a beep when your line is unmuted
• Unmute the telephone from your end, pick up the hand set and ask your question
Section II: Using the BuFFeT© model
• BuFFeT© set‐up and use (30 minutes)
– Application example (20 minutes)
– Questions (10 minutes)
C l i• Conclusions
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• Inputs default or custom – Fleet size: current and projected– Capital and operating costs– Fuel costs
• Output
Model Structure
• Output– Annualized agency cost ($/mile)– Annualized societal cost ($/mile)– Emission table
• Sensitivity Analysis– Monte Carlo simulation
Q&A and Raise Your Hand• Use the Q&A menu to submit questions.
– To ask a question, type your question in the Q&A text box, and then click Ask.
– Click the Raise your hand icon signals you need to initiate 1:1 chat
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Direct Your Questions via Phone
• Push *8 keys on your phone• This signal will place you in a queue
• When it is your turn, the moderator will announcemoderator will announce your city
• You will hear a beep when your line is unmuted
• Unmute the telephone from your end, pick up the hand set and ask your question
Poll Question 7
• Which alterative fuel will you most likely operate in the future?
Thank You for Participating
Please join us again for the next online training
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Contact the TAC!
Paul S. Sarbanes Transit in Parks Technical Assistance Center
www.triptac.org
(877) 704‐5292