Alternative Fuels in East TNAlternative Fuels in East TNReasons, Technical Info, Reasons, Technical Info,

Users & What’s to ComeUsers & What’s to Come

Alternative Fuels in East TNAlternative Fuels in East TNReasons, Technical Info, Reasons, Technical Info,

Users & What’s to ComeUsers & What’s to Come

East Tennessee Section of the AiChEEast Tennessee Section of the AiChE

Eastman, Room B-150C :: Nov. 13, 2007Eastman, Room B-150C :: Nov. 13, 2007

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Jonathan Overly, DirectorJonathan Overly, Director

East Tennessee Clean Fuels CoalitionEast Tennessee Clean Fuels Coalition

Today’s AgendaToday’s Agenda

1. The Basics - Alternative Fuels 1011. The Basics - Alternative Fuels 101

2. Current U.S. Oil Production & Prices2. Current U.S. Oil Production & Prices

3. Current Energy & Oil Peaking Picture3. Current Energy & Oil Peaking Picture

4. Energy In vs. Energy Out4. Energy In vs. Energy Out

5. The Air Quality Connection for East TN5. The Air Quality Connection for East TN

6. Biodiesel -- What, emissions, ET picture, users6. Biodiesel -- What, emissions, ET picture, users

7. Ethanol -- What, UTBI, Billion Ton Vision7. Ethanol -- What, UTBI, Billion Ton Vision

8. Options for East Tennesseans to Make a Difference8. Options for East Tennesseans to Make a Difference

The ETCFC’s 2007 Founding Partners:The ETCFC’s 2007 Founding Partners:

The Basics - Alternative Fuels 101The Reasons for their Use

The Basics - Alternative Fuels 101The Reasons for their Use

Cleaner burn equals reduced pollution, both up Cleaner burn equals reduced pollution, both up high and nearbyhigh and nearby

Reduce foreign oil dependenceReduce foreign oil dependence American fuels diversityAmerican fuels diversity Reduce national security risks Reduce national security risks

due to importing oil from due to importing oil from not-so-friendly countries (e.g., not-so-friendly countries (e.g., Iran, Venezuela)Iran, Venezuela)

Promote renewable resource usePromote renewable resource use Helps create jobs in the USA!Helps create jobs in the USA!

AF101 - What percentages of these alt fuels are domestically produced?

AF101 - What percentages of these alt fuels are domestically produced?

BiodieselBiodiesel - 100%- 100%

ElectricityElectricity - 95%- 95%

EthanolEthanol - 100%- 100%

Natural gasNatural gas - 90%- 90%

PropanePropane - 95%- 95%

In 1945, we were 0% dependent on foreignIn 1945, we were 0% dependent on foreigncountries for oil; now we are 60% dependent.countries for oil; now we are 60% dependent.

~~60 years = 0-60% reliance on others for oil60 years = 0-60% reliance on others for oil~~

GasolineGasoline

+ Diesel+ Diesel

= 40%= 40%vs.vs.

U.S. EIA Data – Petroleum:Crude Oil Production

U.S. EIA Data – Petroleum:Crude Oil Production

Doesn’t look good, does it?Doesn’t look good, does it?

U.S. EIA Data – Petroleum:Imports by Country

U.S. EIA Data – Petroleum:Imports by Country

Still doesn’t look good, at least for us using American fuels.Still doesn’t look good, at least for us using American fuels.

EIA - “However, Pemex has warned that Cantarell production has now entered a stage of long-term decline.” (one field accounts for 60% of their oil).

U.S. EIA Data – Petroleum:Historic Crude Oil Prices

U.S. EIA Data – Petroleum:Historic Crude Oil Prices

Where is this pattern headed?Where is this pattern headed?

Long-termU.S. Energy

Data - Production

Long-termU.S. Energy

Data - Production

Really Long-term U.S. Energy Data (Consumption) & Where Fossil Fuels

Come From

Really Long-term U.S. Energy Data (Consumption) & Where Fossil Fuels

Come From

What does this growth curve look like if What does this growth curve look like if add upadd up all these different all these different forms of energy we are consuming?forms of energy we are consuming?

Really Long-term U.S. Energy Data (Consumption) & Where Fossil Fuels

Come From

Really Long-term U.S. Energy Data (Consumption) & Where Fossil Fuels

Come From

Just the facts here, people.Just the facts here, people.

When Peaking? No one knows for certain

When Peaking? No one knows for certain

Forecast Source

December 2005 Deffeyes (U.S.)

2006-2007 Bakhitari (Iran)

2007-2009 Simmons (U.S.)

After 2007 Skrebowski (U.K.)

2010 Campbell (Ireland)

Before 2010 Goodstein (U.S.)

After 2010 World Energy Council

2012 Weng (China)

2016 Doug-Westwood (U.K.)After 2020 CERA (U.S.)

2030 or later EIA (U.S) / Exxon Mobil

5 years

5-15 years

> 20 yearsFrom Robert Hirsch’s presentation “Peaking of World Oil Production” at the National Clean Cities Congress & Expo ~ May 8, 2006

#1 #1

#2 #2

Forget the oil peak for a minute:who do you want to give your money to?

Forget the oil peak for a minute:who do you want to give your money to?

Oil Systems #1 = Least efficientOil Systems #1 = Least efficient

This is why improving fuel economy and using hybrids is important!This is why improving fuel economy and using hybrids is important!

U.S. Energy Flow Map –

2001

U.S. Energy Flow Map –

2001

Fuel Use Within SectorsFuel Use Within Sectors

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation

Qu

ads

Electricity

Renewable

Coal

Natural Gas

Petroleum

Graph courtesy of the Central Ohio Clean Fuels Coalition (COCFC)

Oil Systems #2 = Least diversifiedOil Systems #2 = Least diversified

One Way to Look atLife-cycle Fossil Energy Efficiency

One Way to Look atLife-cycle Fossil Energy Efficiency

Image from the U.S. DOE & Michael Wang of Argonne Nat’l Lab and his GREET Model.

Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Basis

Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Basis

Circle graphs courtesy of nationalgeographic.com

What you get as output for every 1 unit of fossil energy input:

Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add Gasoline & Diesel

Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add Gasoline & Diesel

What you get as output for every 1 unit of fossil energy input:

Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add Corn-based Ethanol

Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add Corn-based Ethanol

What you get as output for every 1 unit of fossil energy input:

Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add Today’s Biodiesel

Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add Today’s Biodiesel

What you get as output for every 1 unit of fossil energy input:

Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add Sugar-based Ethanol

Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add Sugar-based Ethanol

What you get as output for every 1 unit of fossil energy input:

Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add Cellulosic Ethanol

Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add Cellulosic Ethanol

What you get as output for every 1 unit of fossil energy input:

The Conundrum:All 3 Legs NeededThe Conundrum:

All 3 Legs Needed

Alternative fuels Alternative fuels cannot do it alone.cannot do it alone.

They must be teamed They must be teamed with with significantly significantly improving vehicle improving vehicle fuel efficiencyfuel efficiency and and energy conservationenergy conservation to really achieve the to really achieve the ultimate goal of ultimate goal of foreign oil, or oil foreign oil, or oil period, independence.period, independence.

Air Quality – We Are Not Meeting Federal Health-based Standards!

Air Quality – We Are Not Meeting Federal Health-based Standards!

If EPA reduces the 8-hour O3 threshold to 75 ppb, more TN counties will be NA.If EPA reduces the 8-hour O3 threshold to 75 ppb, more TN counties will be NA.

25 public stations 25 public stations (4 coming in TC!)(4 coming in TC!); ~100 fleets using blends today; ~100 fleets using blends today

5 Plants in Tennessee now – 3 Plants Being Built in East TN5 Plants in Tennessee now – 3 Plants Being Built in East TN• Nu-Energie, LLC – Phipps BendNu-Energie, LLC – Phipps Bend• Suns-Oil, LCC – southeastern TNSuns-Oil, LCC – southeastern TN• Northington Energy – Morgan CountyNorthington Energy – Morgan County

ProsPros• Is the only alt fuel that can yield increased economy Is the only alt fuel that can yield increased economy andand power power• No new vehicles or infra. Required; No new vehicles or infra. Required; Fill-n-go option at Fill-n-go option at ≤ ≤ B20B20• Renewable; less smoke & smell; biodegradable & nontoxicRenewable; less smoke & smell; biodegradable & nontoxic• Helps equipment last longer; less wear and tearHelps equipment last longer; less wear and tear

ConsCons• Possible fuel filter changes; all biodiesel gels faster than dieselPossible fuel filter changes; all biodiesel gels faster than diesel

Biodiesel – SummaryBiodiesel – Summary

Biodiesel Emissions Reductions(from NREL 2001)

Biodiesel Emissions Reductions(from NREL 2001)

PollutantPollutant B20B20 B100B100• Carbon dioxide (CO2) Carbon dioxide (CO2) life-cyclelife-cycle - 15%- 15% - 75%- 75%• Carbon monoxide (CO)Carbon monoxide (CO) - 13%- 13% - 43%- 43%• Hydrocarbons (VOCs)Hydrocarbons (VOCs) - 11%- 11% - 56%- 56%• Nitrogen oxides (NOx)Nitrogen oxides (NOx) + 1-2%*+ 1-2%* + 6%+ 6%• Sulfur dioxide (SO2)Sulfur dioxide (SO2) - 19-20%- 19-20% - 99%- 99%• Particulate matter (PM)Particulate matter (PM) - 12-18%**- 12-18%** - 55%- 55%• Carcinogenic compoundsCarcinogenic compounds - 20%- 20% - 80-- 80-90%90%• Air toxicsAir toxics - 12-20%- 12-20% - 60-90%- 60-90%

* With a low-NOx additive, can be a 5-40% reduction. Additionally, new * With a low-NOx additive, can be a 5-40% reduction. Additionally, new studies show reductions in NOx in new engines w/o additives. studies show reductions in NOx in new engines w/o additives. ** Over 90% of diesel PM is PM-2.5 or smaller, with about 70% being 1 micron ** Over 90% of diesel PM is PM-2.5 or smaller, with about 70% being 1 micron or smaller in size.or smaller in size.

Biodiesel Emissions Reductions(graphical presentation)

Biodiesel Emissions Reductions(graphical presentation)

Biodiesel Explosion in ET – 3/04Consumption in 2003: zero gals B100

Biodiesel Explosion in ET – 3/04Consumption in 2003: zero gals B100

Biodiesel Explosion in ETBiodiesel Explosion in ETB100 use (gal): ’03-0, ’04-90k, ’05-750k, ’06-2.0m B100 use (gal): ’03-0, ’04-90k, ’05-750k, ’06-2.0m

Public stations: ’03-0, ’04-5, ’05-17, ’06-25Public stations: ’03-0, ’04-5, ’05-17, ’06-25

Biodiesel Explosion in ETBiodiesel Explosion in ETB100 use (gal): ’03-0, ’04-90k, ’05-750k, ’06-2.0m B100 use (gal): ’03-0, ’04-90k, ’05-750k, ’06-2.0m

Public stations: ’03-0, ’04-5, ’05-17, ’06-25Public stations: ’03-0, ’04-5, ’05-17, ’06-25

ET Cities & Towns – Leaders for BiodieselCities with Populations >10,000

(and smaller that have started biodiesel projects)

ET Cities & Towns – Leaders for BiodieselCities with Populations >10,000

(and smaller that have started biodiesel projects)

ET Public Biodiesel Stations(there were none in March 2004)

As of 11/07 – 24: B99 - 2, B20 - 15, B5/B10 – 7& new B20s are either built or are planned!

ET Public Biodiesel Stations(there were none in March 2004)

As of 11/07 – 24: B99 - 2, B20 - 15, B5/B10 – 7& new B20s are either built or are planned!

Biodiesel Users in East Tennessee~85 fleets now using biodiesel

Biodiesel Users in East Tennessee~85 fleets now using biodiesel

Regional Fleets - BiodieselRegional Fleets - Biodiesel

2 public E85 stations; 2 public E85 stations; 3 on their way to Tri-Cities!3 on their way to Tri-Cities!

about 50 public E10 stations, including ~15 in Tri-Citiesabout 50 public E10 stations, including ~15 in Tri-Cities

Tennessee Ethanol PlantsTennessee Ethanol Plants• 1 open today = Tate & Lyle – Loudon County (75 MGY)1 open today = Tate & Lyle – Loudon County (75 MGY)• Open soon = EGP – Obion County (100 MGY)Open soon = EGP – Obion County (100 MGY)• Opening in 2009 = UTBI/Mascoma Monroe County (5 MGY)Opening in 2009 = UTBI/Mascoma Monroe County (5 MGY)

ProsPros• E10 can run in E10 can run in ANY ANY gasoline vehiclegasoline vehicle• E85 in flex-fuel vehicles, which can switch back and forthE85 in flex-fuel vehicles, which can switch back and forth

ConsCons• More power (octane rating of 105), but reduced fuel economy; easy to More power (octane rating of 105), but reduced fuel economy; easy to

fix! Just price ethanol at 20-25% less than gasfix! Just price ethanol at 20-25% less than gas

Ethanol – SummaryEthanol – Summary

Office of Bioenergy Programs ● Tennessee Agricultural Experiment Station ● Institute of Agriculture

Biorefinery LocationBiorefinery Location

• Niles Ferry Industrial Park, Vonore, Tennessee

• < 35 miles to UT and ORNL• Heart of Sweetwater Valley• Transportation infrastructure• Utilities & services• Proximity to distributors

Billion Ton VisionBasis & Assumptions

Billion Ton VisionBasis & Assumptions

• Goal was set: Goal was set: By 2030, biomass will supply 5% of the nation’s By 2030, biomass will supply 5% of the nation’s power, 20% of its transportation fuels and 25% of its chemicalspower, 20% of its transportation fuels and 25% of its chemicals

• That is equivalent to 30% of our current petroleum use, and will That is equivalent to 30% of our current petroleum use, and will require 1 billion dry tons of biomass feedstock per yearrequire 1 billion dry tons of biomass feedstock per year

• Largest single source of biomass is forestlands (no parks, roads)Largest single source of biomass is forestlands (no parks, roads)• What assumptions?What assumptions?

• Yields of corn, wheat and other small grains increased by 50%Yields of corn, wheat and other small grains increased by 50%• Residue-to-grain ratio for soybeans increased to 2:1Residue-to-grain ratio for soybeans increased to 2:1• Harvest recovery capable of recovering 75% of annual crop residuesHarvest recovery capable of recovering 75% of annual crop residues• All cropland managed with no-till methodsAll cropland managed with no-till methods• 55M acres of cropland, idle cropland and cropland pasture 55M acres of cropland, idle cropland and cropland pasture

dedicated to production of perennial bioenergy cropsdedicated to production of perennial bioenergy crops• All manure used for biofuel (excluding that applied on-farm for All manure used for biofuel (excluding that applied on-farm for

soil improvement)soil improvement)• All other available residues utilizedAll other available residues utilized

Billion Ton Vision OK… what’s the summary?

Billion Ton Vision OK… what’s the summary?

Graph from the Billion Ton Study (manipulated by Jonathan Overly).

““An annual biomass supply of more than 1.3 billion dry tons can be accomplished An annual biomass supply of more than 1.3 billion dry tons can be accomplished with relatively modest changes in land use and agricultural and forestry practices.”with relatively modest changes in land use and agricultural and forestry practices.”

FUEL ECONOMYFUEL ECONOMY• Look to purchase a vehicle that gets Look to purchase a vehicle that gets significantlysignificantly (> 5 mpg) (> 5 mpg)

better fuel economybetter fuel economy when purchasing next when purchasing next • Hybrids are just one option, but are a good choiceHybrids are just one option, but are a good choice

USING ALTERNATIVE FUELSUSING ALTERNATIVE FUELS• E10 - E10 - Any current gasoline vehicle can use E10!Any current gasoline vehicle can use E10!• E85E85 - Look at an - Look at an FFVFFV for your next vehicle purchase for your next vehicle purchase• BiodieselBiodiesel - Any diesel vehicle can burn a biodiesel blend - B20 - Any diesel vehicle can burn a biodiesel blend - B20

CHANGING DRIVING HABITS OR STYLECHANGING DRIVING HABITS OR STYLE• Bike, walk, carpool, use mass transit, trip chainBike, walk, carpool, use mass transit, trip chain• reduce your quick stops and starts, keep tires at right pressurereduce your quick stops and starts, keep tires at right pressure

What are the options for East Tennesseans to Make a Difference?

What are the options for East Tennesseans to Make a Difference?

Another Way You Can Help Today –Join the ETCFC!

Another Way You Can Help Today –Join the ETCFC!

5-year old East Tennessee nonprofit5-year old East Tennessee nonprofit Focused on education and creating “Actors for Change” in the transportation sector Focused on education and creating “Actors for Change” in the transportation sector

through greater use of alternative fuels, AFVs & more fuel efficient vehiclesthrough greater use of alternative fuels, AFVs & more fuel efficient vehicles Sustained by a combination of reg. memberships & state/federal Sustained by a combination of reg. memberships & state/federal

grants grants Local funding is critical to our receiving the grants! Local funding is critical to our receiving the grants!

(matching)(matching) ROIROI::

Newsletter, email list, meetingsNewsletter, email list, meetings Connection to the leading org. that is driving alt fuels use & Connection to the leading org. that is driving alt fuels use &

higher efficiency vehicles use in East TN!higher efficiency vehicles use in East TN!

Considering this and this…Considering this and this…

shouldn’t we be doingall that we can to help?shouldn’t we be doing

all that we can to help?

Your Link to Alternative FuelsInformation in East Tennessee:

ETCleanFuels.org (865) 974-3625

Questions?

Your Link to Alternative FuelsInformation in East Tennessee:

ETCleanFuels.org (865) 974-3625

Questions?

““Do not follow where the path may lead.Do not follow where the path may lead.Go, instead, where there is no pathGo, instead, where there is no path

and leave a trail.”and leave a trail.”- Ralph Waldo Emerson- Ralph Waldo Emerson