Alternative Transportation Futures

Alternative Alternative TransportatiTransportationonFuturesFutures

Transportation Impacts of Transportation Impacts of Possible Futures in the Willamette ValleyPossible Futures in the Willamette Valley

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Why Should We Care?Why Should We Care?

By 2050, 1.7 million new residents are expected in By 2050, 1.7 million new residents are expected in the Valley – totaling nearly four million people.the Valley – totaling nearly four million people.


Continued prosperity and quality of life relate to Continued prosperity and quality of life relate to our ability to get around safely and efficiently.our ability to get around safely and efficiently.


The Willamette Valley Livability ForumThe Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Alternative Transportation Futures Project


PurposePurpose

2) Identify policy choices 2) Identify policy choices to avoid or minimize to avoid or minimize future impacts of growth future impacts of growth on transportation.on transportation.

1) Take a long-range look 1) Take a long-range look at the future of land use at the future of land use and transportation in and transportation in Oregon’s Willamette Oregon’s Willamette Valley.Valley.


Guided by a 14-member ProjectGuided by a 14-member ProjectSteering CommitteeSteering Committee

Joan Baker, Joan Baker, EPAEPA

Richard Brandman, Richard Brandman, Metro Metro

Susan Brody, Susan Brody, WVLFWVLF

Jon Chandler, Jon Chandler, OBIAOBIA

Bob CortrightBob Cortright, , DLCD DLCD

Ed Gallagher,Ed Gallagher, Governor'sGovernor's

Community Development OfficeCommunity Development Office

Craig Greenleaf, Craig Greenleaf, ODOT ODOT

Chris HagerbaumerChris Hagerbaumer,, OTRANOTRANMarcia Kelley, Marcia Kelley, MWACTMWACT Gary Johnson, Gary Johnson, ODOTODOT Robert Liberty, Robert Liberty, 1000 Friends of1000 Friends of OregonOregon Mike Propes, Mike Propes, Polk County BoardPolk County Board of Commissionersof CommissionersBob Russell,Bob Russell, OHUA OHUA Tom Schwetz, Tom Schwetz, LCOGLCOG


ApproachApproach

• Use state-of-art computer modeling Use state-of-art computer modeling techniquestechniques

• Examine effects of alternative land Examine effects of alternative land use and transportation policies on use and transportation policies on traffic congestion and travel behavior traffic congestion and travel behavior on major highways in the Valleyon major highways in the Valley

• Over next 50 yearsOver next 50 years


Integrated StatewideIntegrated StatewideComputer ModelComputer Model

Analytical tool to help Analytical tool to help understand complex understand complex interactions among interactions among Oregon’s economy, land Oregon’s economy, land use patterns, and use patterns, and transportation systemtransportation system


122-Analysis Zone Structure122-Analysis Zone Structure

Not high definition – the model’s resolution lends itself to regional and city-to-city levels of analysis, rather than evaluations of short-distance trips.


Policy Choices ConsideredPolicy Choices Considered

• Urban land available for development

• Investments in highways and transit

• Cost of driving


Evaluated Seven ScenariosEvaluated Seven Scenarios

• To the year 2050To the year 2050

• Same statewide population and Same statewide population and employment forecastsemployment forecasts


Scenarios ModeledScenarios Modeled

• No-ActionNo-Action• Compact DevelopmentCompact Development• Highway ExpansionHighway Expansion• Transit ExpansionTransit Expansion• Mileage TaxMileage Tax• Hybrid 1Hybrid 1• Hybrid 2Hybrid 2


No-Action ScenarioNo-Action Scenario

• Urban expansion about the same rate Urban expansion about the same rate as nowas now

• No major highway or transit expansionNo major highway or transit expansion

• No mileage taxNo mileage tax


Compact Development ScenarioCompact Development Scenario

• Urban development that achieves Urban development that achieves density targets in comprehensive density targets in comprehensive plansplans




Highway Expansion ScenarioHighway Expansion Scenario• Urban expansion about the same rate as Urban expansion about the same rate as

nownow• Add new lanes to congested state highwaysAdd new lanes to congested state highways

– Maximum limits: ten-lane freeway in Maximum limits: ten-lane freeway in metropolitan areas; eight-lane freeways metropolitan areas; eight-lane freeways outside metropolitan areas; six-lane for other outside metropolitan areas; six-lane for other major thoroughfaresmajor thoroughfares

• No major transit expansionNo major transit expansion• No mileage taxNo mileage tax


Transit Expansion ScenarioTransit Expansion Scenario

• Urban expansion about the same rate as nowUrban expansion about the same rate as now• No major highway expansionNo major highway expansion• Major transit expansionMajor transit expansion

– Commuter and frequent city-to-city passenger railCommuter and frequent city-to-city passenger rail– City-to-city busCity-to-city bus– Portland light-rail system extensions, including Portland light-rail system extensions, including

addition to Clark County, Washingtonaddition to Clark County, Washington– Bus rapid transit system in Eugene/SpringfieldBus rapid transit system in Eugene/Springfield



Mileage Tax ScenarioMileage Tax Scenario

• Urban expansion about the same rate Urban expansion about the same rate as nowas now

• 20 cents/mile tax on autos and trucks 20 cents/mile tax on autos and trucks traveling in the Willamette Valleytraveling in the Willamette Valley



Hybrid ScenariosHybrid Scenarios

• Recognizes one solution will not Recognizes one solution will not solve mobility and congestion issuessolve mobility and congestion issues

• Elements of five previous scenarios Elements of five previous scenarios combined into two hybridscombined into two hybrids


Hybrid 1Hybrid 1• Compact developmentCompact development• Full transit expansion Full transit expansion • Expansion of rural highwaysExpansion of rural highways• Graduated mileage tax – 10 cents/mile in 2005; Graduated mileage tax – 10 cents/mile in 2005;

20/mile cents in 2025 20/mile cents in 2025

Hybrid 2Hybrid 2• Compact developmentCompact development• Partial highway and transit expansionPartial highway and transit expansion• Graduated mileage tax – 5 cents/mile in 2005; Graduated mileage tax – 5 cents/mile in 2005;

10 cents/mile in 2025 10 cents/mile in 2025


What have we What have we learned so far?learned so far?


If recent development trends continue and there are no policy changes by If recent development trends continue and there are no policy changes by 2050,2050, traffic congestion will increase by 81 percent. traffic congestion will increase by 81 percent.

Effect on Traffic Congestion Between CitiesIf We Do Nothing More

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Compact development alone has little effect in alleviating traffic congestion Compact development alone has little effect in alleviating traffic congestion for longer trips on the Valley’s major highways and throughwaysfor longer trips on the Valley’s major highways and throughways..

Effect of Compact Development onTraffic Congestion Between Cities

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Compact


Improvements to the transportation system and Improvements to the transportation system and strategies that encourage the use of alternative forms strategies that encourage the use of alternative forms

of transportation are needed.of transportation are needed.


By itself, increasing the frequency and convenience of public By itself, increasing the frequency and convenience of public transit can reduce 2050 traffic congestion levels by 16 percenttransit can reduce 2050 traffic congestion levels by 16 percent..

Effect of Major City-to-City Transit ServiceExpansion on Traffic Congestion Between Cities

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Transit


Alone, adding highway lanes can reduce 2050 traffic Alone, adding highway lanes can reduce 2050 traffic congestion levels by 12 percentcongestion levels by 12 percent..

Effect of Major Highway Improvementson Traffic Congestion Between Cities

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Highway


On its own, increasing the cost of driving by 20 cents/mile On its own, increasing the cost of driving by 20 cents/mile reduces 2050 traffic congestion levels by 15 percentreduces 2050 traffic congestion levels by 15 percent..

Effect of a 20-Cents/Mile Tax on Traffic Congestion Between Cities

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But, most significantly But, most significantly we learned that . . .we learned that . . .


No single approach is as effective in keeping traffic moving No single approach is as effective in keeping traffic moving as instituting a combination of policy changes.as instituting a combination of policy changes.

Willamette Valley Traffic Congestion Between Cities

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Compact

Highway

Transit

Tax

Hybrid 1

Hybrid 2


The most effective hybrid scenario increased the cost of The most effective hybrid scenario increased the cost of driving to a greater extent and targeted infrastructure driving to a greater extent and targeted infrastructure investments to support transit ridership.investments to support transit ridership.

Different Combinations AffectTraffic Congestion Between Cities Differently

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Hybrid 1

Hybrid 2

There’s No Silver BulletThere’s No Silver Bullet

Whatever we do, an Whatever we do, an additional 1.7 million people additional 1.7 million people will result in increased will result in increased traffic congestion levels. traffic congestion levels.


We can have an effect on just how crowded We can have an effect on just how crowded highways will become in years ahead.highways will become in years ahead.


Other Effects on Other Effects on TransportationTransportation


No single approach is as effective in limiting declines in travel No single approach is as effective in limiting declines in travel speed as is instituting a combination of policy changes. speed as is instituting a combination of policy changes.

Declines in Average Auto Travel Speed

-90%

-80%

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Hybrid 1

Hybrid 2


The hybrid approach provides the greatest benefit for truck The hybrid approach provides the greatest benefit for truck freight mobilityfreight mobility..

Effect on Freight Truck Travel Time

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Compact

Highway

Transit

Tax

Hybrid 1

Hybrid 2


A mileage tax increases transit usage and can generate A mileage tax increases transit usage and can generate revenue to finance transportation improvementsrevenue to finance transportation improvements..

Effect on Transit Ridership

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Compact

Highway

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Hybrid 1

Hybrid 2


Effects on Population and Effects on Population and Employment DistributionEmployment Distribution


Expanding public transit concentrates jobs in major urban centers while pulling population to outlying cities.


Expanding highways draws both people and jobs to outlying cities.


Next StepsNext Steps


The Forum will:The Forum will:• Review public reaction and comment on the Review public reaction and comment on the

project’s findingsproject’s findings

• Further examine the data to understand their Further examine the data to understand their implicationsimplications

• Identify policy choices to help avoid or minimize Identify policy choices to help avoid or minimize future adverse impacts of growth on future adverse impacts of growth on transportationtransportation

• Present recommendations to public officials and Present recommendations to public officials and the publicthe public


It’s Time To Hear From YouIt’s Time To Hear From You

• What are your reactions to the What are your reactions to the findings?findings?

• Given the results of the research, Given the results of the research, what strategies or actions would what strategies or actions would you recommend?you recommend?

Date post:	13-Jan-2016
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Alternative Transportation Futures

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