2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) and

Comprehensive Transportation Plan (CTP)Alternatives Analysis

Orange County OUTBoardSeptember 19th, 2012

What is DCHC MPO?

What is 2040 MTP?

What is Alternatives Analysis?

How to understand the data provided for the Alternatives Analysis

Next steps

Presentation Outline

Durham-Chapel Hill Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization

Responsible for long range transportation planning in Durham City and County, and Parts of Orange County and Chatham County.

Federal mandate – MPO must plan use of federal transportation funding

Project must be in MPO plan to receive state or federal funding (CTP, MTP and TIP)

Policy Board -- Transportation Advisory Committee (TAC) composed mostly of local elected officials. 3

What is the DCHC MPO?

4

What is the DCHC MPO?

MetropolitanTransportation Plan

(Minimum 20 Year Plan)

Comprehensive Transportation Plan

(30+ Year Needs)

TIP(7 Year Plan)

Relationship Between Plans

Collector Street Plan

Lists highway, transit and other transportation projects to address future transportation deficiencies through year 2040.

Assumptions – based on future land use, population and employment.

Fiscal Constraint – Anticipated revenues must cover anticipated project costs.

Funding -- Projects must be in MTP to receive state and federal funding (via Transportation Improvement Program – TIP)

Used for Planning e.g., In development review, use MTP to reserve right-of-way

for future highway and fixed guideway projects

What is the 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP)?

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What is the 2040 MTP Process?

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1. Goals and Objectives

2. Socioeconomic Data (population and employment forecasts)

3. Deficiency Analysis

4. Alternatives Analysis

5. Preferred Option

6. Draft MTP

7. Air Quality Conformity

We are Here!

Aug.-Oct. 2012

Oct.-Dec. 2012

Dec. 2012

Jan.-Apr.2013

8. Federal Approval

By June 2013

What – Set of highway and transit projects, and land use

assumptions that produce transportation scenario for year 2040

Why – Compare impact of different projects and sets of projects

on meeting transportation demand. Inform development of final MTP and CTP

When – Release in August 2012 Public input (e.g., workshops, public hearing) in August,

September and early October 2012

Alternatives Analysis

Alternatives Analysis (cont.)

Land Use/Network

Highway Intensive

Transit Intensive

Moderate

CommPlan Yes Yes Yes

All-in-Transit

 No Yes Yes 

• We will compare 5 different Alternatives• Each Alternative had the following:

Land Use Scenario

Transportation Network

Alternative

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--Guide Totals--

Jurisdiction 2010 2040 Growth%

IncreaseAnnual Rate

Durham County 268,925 432,571 163,646 61% 1.6%Orange County 134,325 197,675 63,350 47% 1.3%Chatham County(1)(2) 38,991 71,672 32,681 84% 2.0%Person County(1) 31,845 44,784 12,939 41% 1.1%

Total 474,086 746,702 272,616 58% 1.5%

2040 MTP

Alternatives Analysis -- Land Use Scenarios

--Guide Totals--

Jurisdiction 2010 2040 Growth%

IncreaseAnnual Rate

Durham County 194,770 306,637 111,867 57% 1.5%Orange County 70,491 119,787 49,296 70% 1.8%Chatham County 10,011 19,509 9,498 95% 2.2%Person County 8,791 13,093 4,302 49% 1.3%

Total 284,063 459,026 174,963 62% 1.6%

2040 MTP

We start with Guide TotalsPopulation

Employment

Alternatives Analysis -- Land Use Scenarios

Community Plan Based on local comprehensive plans Used in Deficiency Analysis (June 2012)

All-in-Transit Based on local comprehensive plans, plus… Additional and enhanced transit oriented

development Additional development attraction to rail and

premium transit

Alternatives Analysis -- Land Use Scenarios Orange County Dwelling Units

Community Plan All-in-Transit

Alternatives Analysis -- Land Use Scenarios Orange County Employment

Community Plan All-in-Transit

Alternatives Analysis -- Transportation Networks

Highway Intensive Transit Intensive Moderate

Highway • 2035 LRTP• CTP highway projects

  410 new lanes miles $3.9 billion highway costs 2,979 total lane miles in

network

Basically, 2015 and 2025 tier No 2035 tier or CTP highway

projects 

120 new lanes miles $1.2 billion highway costs 2,842 total lanes miles in

network

Basically, 2035 LRTP (minus some minor highway projects)

  261 new lanes miles $2.5 billion highway costs 2,737 total lanes miles in network

Transit • Current bus transit• No rail transit

  2,028 bus transit line miles

(Triangle)

• Current bus transit• County plans (based on ½ cent

sales tax)• LRT between Durham and

Wake (instead of CRT)• LRT and CRT extensions in

Orange County• CRT addition between Cary

and western RTP• All Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)

in Chapel Hill 

2,646 bus transit line miles (Triangle)

69,354 transit service miles (Triangle)

260 miles of rail transit alignment (Triangle)

• Current bus transit• County plans (based on ½ cent

sales tax)• LRT and CRT (based on Locally

Preferred Alternative) • MLK Blvd Bus Rapid Transit

(BRT) in Chapel Hill 

2,882 bus transit line miles (Triangle)

66,211 transit service miles (Triangle)

75 miles of rail transit line (Triangle)

Alternatives Analysis -- Transit Intensive

• Only highest priority highway projects

• 2015 and 2025 tiers from 2035 LRTP

• East End Conn.• I-40 and I-85 in Orange

Co.• US 70 and I-85 in

Durham Co.• NC 54 in Durham Co.

• 120 new lane miles

• $1.2 billion est. highway cost

Highways

Alternatives Analysis -- Moderate

• Basically 2035 LRTP

Plus..• I-40 HOV/HOT• Northern Durham

Parkway• US 15-501 Freeway

Conversion• NC 147 widening• NC 54/US 15-501 Bypass

(Chapel Hill)

• 261 new lane miles

• $2.5 billion est. highway cost

Highways

Alternatives Analysis -- Highway Intensive

• Basically 2035 LRTP

• Plus CTP highway projects

Plus..• I-40 (ext.), I-85 and NC

147 HOV/HOT• US 15-501/Manning

interchange• NC 751 in Chatham Co.• US 70 bypass widening

(H’boro)

• 410 new lane miles

• $3.9 billion est. highway cost

Highways

Alternatives Analysis -- Highway Intensive

• Current bus transit

• No rail transit

Transit

Alternatives Analysis -- Moderate

Plus…• bus transit in

county plans• LRT and regional

rail based on LPA• MLK Blvd bus

rapid transit (Chapel Hill)

Transit

Alternatives Analysis -- Transit Intensive

Plus…• LRT Durham to

Raleigh• LRT and CRT

extensions in Orange Co.

• CRT: Cary through western RTP

• Addt’/ bus rapid transit in Chapel Hill

Transit

Triangle Regional Model OutputPerformance MeasuresTravel IsochronesTravel TimeCongestion Maps (V/C)

Performance Measures -- DCHC MPO

SE Data 2010 2040 2040Transportation Network 2010 E+C 2035

1 Performance Measures 1.1.1 Total Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT-daily) 13,217,550 20,368,697 20,581,822 1.1.1a Total Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT-per capita) 33 32 33 1.2.1 Total Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT-daily) 312,669 581,776 536,746 1.2.1a Total Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT-per capita) 0.77 0.92 0.85 1.3 Average Speed by Facility (miles/hour) 1.3.1 - Freeway 63 57 61 1.3.2 - Arterial 42 38 39 1.3.3 - All Facility 51 47 50

Alternatives Analysis -- Triangle Regional Model Output

Currently running the two Transit Intensive Alternatives, again. Results available early next week.

Alternatives Analysis -- Performance Measures (VMT & Peak Speed)

Alternatives Analysis -- Performance Measures (Mode Share)

82%

11%

3%4%

2040 E+C

82%

11%

3%4%

Comm. Plan, Highway

81%

11%

3% 1% 4%

Comm. Plan, Moderate

80%

11%

3% 1%5%

AIT, Moderate

81%

10%

3% 2% 4%

Comm. Plan, Transit

80%

10%

3%

2% 5%

AIT, Transit

Alternatives Analysis -- Moderate Network(boarding/alighting by stop)

All-in-Transit land use scenario provides about 25% increase in rail boardings/alightings.

Alternatives Analysis -- Transit Intensive(boarding/alighting by stop)

Station boarding/alighting is generally low west and north of UNC campus (above red line in table)

Caveat – The Transit Intensive network must be run again to correct highway network. These values could change.

Alternatives Analysis Output – Travel Times

Alternatives Analysis Output – Travel Times

Alternatives Analysis Output – Travel Times

Alternatives Analysis Output -- Congestion Maps - Moderate

In Moderate, clears up congestion on many major roads, but congestion persists on I-40, NC 147, NC 54 and US 15-501.

Alternatives Analysis Output -- Congestion Maps – Highway Intensive

In Highway Intensive, congestion persists on many of the same corridors.

Alternatives Analysis Output -- Congestion Maps – Transit Intensive

In Transit Intensive, congestion (still) persists on many of the same corridors.

Are there certain projects and policies that should be promoted?

Invest more on Roadways or Transit?

Invest more on roadway widenings or “hotspots” (e.g., intersections with long delays)?

Invest more on local bus service or fixed guideway service (e.g., rail transit)?

Use traditional revenue sources only or increase local taxes (e.g., sales tax, real estate transfer tax)?

What are your preferences?Given the limited budget, and projected areas of congestion, where do we invest our money?

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2040 MTP-- Next Steps

Develop the Preferred Option (release in October 2012)

Get public feedback on the Preferred Option (October through December 2012)

Approve draft 2040 MTP(December 2012)