Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2016

1Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

December 2016


Year’s End

It’s good to look back at the end of the year

and appreciate how far you have come.

Our Economic Recovery Index allows us to

look back even further – and we’ve seen

massive improvements from the lowest

points six years ago.

As 2016 comes to an end, there is much to

be grateful for in that regard.

The sources of uncertainty may have

changed since 2010, but there’s still plenty

of uncertainty going into 2017, and we’ll be

here next year to help you navigate the year

ahead.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to December 2016.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 6th to 15th December 2016 inclusive.

See how bad it was at one of the lowest points

just six years ago:http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-december-2010

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, December 2016

Our Economic Recovery Index remains flat, showing little change since last year


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Dec-09 49 31 18 2 0 18.3

Dec-10 65 20 14 1 0 12.0

Dec-11 59 24 15 2 0 15.1

Dec-12 49 28 20 3 0 19.5

Dec-13 24 36 31 8 1 31.2

Dec-14 16 31 38 13 1 37.9

Dec-15 13 30 34 19 4 43.3

Nov-16 16 30 33 18 3 42.0

Dec-16 15 29 32 21 3 42.2

December 2010 was the 2nd lowest point in the past seven years

Consumer Impact


Recession, Resilience & Recovery

We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery

Index’ back in April 2009

Over these past seven years we have tracked

the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of

the mood of the nation and the impact on

consumer spending, borrowing and saving

intentions.

We’ve also seen remarkable resilience on the

part of the Irish people when it comes to

‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro-

economic uncertainties.

In this section we look at some of the key

indicators when it comes to consumer

spending and saving intentions.


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the worst

of the recession

in 12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to make

it through the

recession

I am optimistic in

spite of the

current economic

situation

Right now it seems

like the recession is

affecting other

people more than it

is affecting me

Dec-09 43 45 51 56

Dec-10 23 34 41 45

Dec-11 22 33 39 43

Dec-12 26 32 39 43

Dec-13 37 40 49 43

Dec-14 40 42 52 43

Dec-15 43 43 51 45

Nov-16 36 46 55 43

Dec-16 35 46 54 46

Economic sentiment has remained relatively unchanged over the past 12 months


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more relaxed

about spending

money than I was a

few months ago

I am saving a lot

more than before

because of the

recession

My main financial

priority is to pay off

my debts as quickly

as possible

I would be happy

to borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Dec-09 17 26 57 29

Dec-10 11 23 58 21

Dec-11 14 27 56 22

Dec-12 15 22 54 22

Dec-13 22 26 55 26

Dec-14 26 23 55 23

Dec-15 30 25 52 26

Nov-16 33 28 58 33

Dec-16 36 34 50 35

Good news for retailers – spending sentiment is at an all time high


Spending Christmas

Our spending attitudes tracker suggests a better Christmas than in recent years

Mood of the Nation


The Real Mood of the Nation

When we started measuring and reporting the

Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be

more than just another ‘confidence index’.

We therefore set out to measure the full

spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish

consumers – positive as well as negative ones

– in order to provide a unique insight into the

real ‘mood’ of the nation.

Lately some interesting but rather strange

things have emerged: our levels of stress and

anger have fallen to their lowest levels ever,

but our level of happiness is trending

downwards as well, despite the recovery.

The following charts show the trends to

December 2016.


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2016


20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

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0F

eb

Mar

Ap

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Ju

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Ju

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

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1F

eb

Mar

Ap

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ay

Ju

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

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2F

eb

Mar

Ap

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Ju

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

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Mar

Ap

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

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Mar

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

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5F

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Mar

Ap

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

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6F

eb

Mar

Ap

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ay

Ju

nJu

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II


% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2016


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Ju

nJu

l

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

0F

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Mar

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Ju

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lyA

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pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

1F

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Mar

Ap

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Ju

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

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2

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

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Nov

Dec

Ja

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Mar

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

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Mar

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Oct

Nov

Dec

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Mar

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

6

Feb

Mar

Ap

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Ju

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III


% saying Yes: December 2016

TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Happiness 45% 46% 45% 47% 39% 42% 42% 54% 50% 42%

Enjoyment 44% 45% 44% 40% 45% 38% 42% 53% 50% 40%

Stress 37% 35% 39% 48% 31% 40% 41% 30% 34% 39%

Worry 29% 26% 32% 31% 28% 29% 32% 27% 26% 32%

Anxiety 24% 18% 29% 37% 21% 19% 24% 21% 24% 24%

Physical Pain 21% 20% 21% 18% 17% 18% 23% 25% 16% 24%

Boredom 18% 18% 17% 33% 14% 19% 15% 12% 17% 19%

Sadness 17% 14% 20% 24% 17% 12% 21% 13% 13% 20%

Anger 14% 14% 14% 17% 17% 13% 13% 11% 12% 16%

Loneliness 12% 12% 13% 19% 10% 11% 13% 10% 10% 14%

Fear 8% 7% 9% 12% 7% 6% 9% 6% 6% 9%

None of the above 8% 10% 5% 6% 7% 12% 9% 6% 10% 6%

Amárach Outlook


See You Next Year

We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2017 –

and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s

consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2017 and beyond.

Finally, we’d like to wish you a Happy

Christmas from all of us in Amárach – see

you next year.

For more on the ERI (including over 7 years worth of data) see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm


PlanR Database

We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.

We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending

levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey

You can view the full list (as well as

a free dashboard) here:

Contact us for subscription details

and information about special offers

and join more than two dozen other

organisations using their own

customised planning dashboard.

http://getplanr.com/planr-data

Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2016

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