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ROA HOLDINGS ISSUE REPORTAsian Mobile Market Forecast 2012-2015

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ROA Holdings, INC.Report No.012201

[email protected]

Copyright © 2012 ROA HOLDINGS, INC All Rights Reserved.

Asian Mobile Market Forecast 2012-201510 Countries: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam

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Asian Mobile Market Forecast 2012-2015

Table of Contents

Introduction

1 China

1.1 Overview

1.1.1 Economic Dynamics in the Chinese Market

1.1.2 Key Comments on the Chinese Mobile Market

1.2 Telecom Dynamics

1.2.1 Current Status

1.2.2 Future Movement

1.2.3 Player Strategy

1.3 Device Dynamics




1.4 Service Dynamics




2 India

2.1 Overview

2.1.1 Economic Dynamics in the Indian Market

2.1.2 Key Comments on the Indian Mobile Market


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2.3 Device Dynamics








3 Indonesia

3.1 Overview

3.1.1 Economic Dynamics in the Indonesian Market

3.1.2 Key Comments on the Indonesian Mobile Market





3.3 Device Dynamics





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Table of Contents




4 Japan

4.1 Overview

4.1.1 Economic Dynamics in the Japanese Market

4.1.2 Key Comments on the Japanese Mobile Market





4.3 Device Dynamics








5 Korea

5.1 Overview

5.1.1 Economic Dynamics in the Korean Market

5.1.2 Key Comments on the Korean Mobile Market


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5.3 Device Dynamics








6 Malaysia

6.1 Overview

6.1.1 Economic Dynamics in the Malaysian Market

6.1.2 Key Comments on the Malaysian Mobile Market





6.3 Device Dynamics





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Table of Contents




7 Philippines

7.1 Overview

7.1.1 Economic Dynamics in the Philippine Market

7.1.2 Key Comments on the Philippine Mobile Market





7.3 Device Dynamics








8 Singapore

8.1 Overview

8.1.1 Economic Dynamics in the Singaporean Market

8.1.2 Key Comments on the Singaporean Mobile Market


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8.3 Device Dynamics








9 Taiwan

9.1 Overview

9.1.1 Economic Dynamics in the Taiwanese Market

9.1.2 Key Comments on the Taiwanese Mobile Market





9.3 Device Dynamics





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Table of Contents




10 Vietnam

10.1 Overview

10.1.1 Economic Dynamics in the Vietnamese Market

10.1.2 Key Comments on the Vietnamese Mobile Market





10.3 Device Dynamics








Appendix

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List of Figures

[Figure 0-1] Asia Mobile Subscriber Landscape 2008-2015 (unit: 000)

[Figure 0-2] Asia Smartphone Penetration 2011

[Figure 0-3] Asia Mobile Expenditure Index 2008-2015 (ARPU / GDP per Capita)

[Figure 0-4] ARPU and Mobile Penetration in Asia (Gray: 2008, Orange: 2015)

[Figure 0-5] Asia Churn rate vs. Prepaid Penetration in 2011

[Figure 1-1] Chinese Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 1-2] Chinese Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 2-1] Indian Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 2-2] Indian Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 3-1] Indonesian Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 3-2] Indonesian Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 4-1] Japanese Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 4-2] Japanese Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 5-1] Korean Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 5-2] Korean Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 6-1] Malaysian Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 6-2] Malaysian Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 7-1] Philippine Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 7-2] Philippine Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 8-1] Singaporean Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 8-2] Singaporean Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 9-1] Taiwanese Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 9-2] Taiwanese Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 10-1] Vietnamese Mobile Subscriber Forecast (2008-2015)

[Figure 10-2] Vietnamese Mobile ARPU and Churn rate Forecast (2008-2015)

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Among the Asian mobile markets, Korea and Japan by adopting 3G at an early stage, have been leading the region in terms of technology, and various kind of services providing diversified contents have been diffused within Asia. While the mobile subscriber numbers of Korea and Japan have been reaching saturation, the rest of the Asian countries are catching up to become the center of growth in Asia.

[Figure 0-1] Asia Mobile Subscriber Landscape 2008-2015 (unit: 000)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

China India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Vietnam

Source: ROA Holdings Analysis

As presented in the above graph, ROA Holdings has selected 10 countries in Asia that are assumed to show key movements in the near future. The total number of mobile subscribers in both China and India are currently occupying almost 75% of the rest of the 10 countries, and Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, as well as Vietnam are following them with a rapid growth rate.

Introduction

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It is estimated that the total number of global mobile subscribers will reach approximately 7 billion by 2015 and the proportion of Asia is expected to be 65% of the total, forming the most signifi cant region among the world mobile markets.

[Figure 0-2] Asia Smartphone Penetration 2011

Singapore

Malaysia

Indonesia

Vietnam Taiwan

SmartphoneRest

China

Japan Korea

Philippines India


As can be seen in the above chart that shows smartphone penetration by countries in Asia, among the Southeast Asian countries, the smartphone penetration rate in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam is quite high, since Symbian-based smartphones were commonly used before iPhone OS or Android phones were launched. In the Philippines and India, due to low GDP per capita as well as the popularity of web-enabled feature phones, the smartphone penetration rate appears lower compared to other Southeast Asian countries. Regarding Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, these countries used to adopt quite sophisticated feature phones before iPhone or

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Android OS phones entered the market, however, recently the market share of iPhone and Android OS smartphones continues to increase rapidly, especially in Korea where the mobile carriers aggressively market 3G and 4G smartphones, supported by the local vendors Samsung, LGE and Pantech.

[Figure 0-3] Asia Mobile Expenditure Index 2008-2015 (ARPU / GDP per Capita)

* * * * * * * ** * * * * ** * * *

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

China India Indonesia Japan Korea

Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Vietnam

X

X X X X X X X X

*


The above graph shows the ratio of ARPU (per 12 months) to GDP per capita of each Asian country, 2%-4% being the major trend. Although the GDP per capita is growing annually, the ARPU is decreasing in most of the countries and this trend is expected to continue in the near future.

Countries, such as Vietnam and India show a unique pattern. In Vietnam, mobile users commonly have 2-3 SIM cards; therefore the ARPU appeared quite high in the past. However, as most of the SIMs are not actively used, and with the Vietnamese government starting to regulate this kind of condition, the index is expected to get lower in the near future.

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Regarding India, the reason why the index was quite high in the past is that most of the mobile users emerged from the urban areas, but nowadays a strong demand of subscribers living in the rural areas has been recently causing a steep decrease in ARPU.

Also, the ARPUs in the region will be affected by third party providers who are increasingly entering into each market in Asia exploiting the contents revenue originally earned by the mobile carriers.

[Figure 0-4] ARPU and Mobile Penetration in Asia (Gray: 2008, Orange: 2015)

70

100%50%

ARPU (USD)

China

Malaysia

Japan

Taiwan

VietnamIndonesia

50

10

5

30

20

Philippines

India

150%

KoreaKorea

Japan

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Taiwan

VietnamIndonesia India

China

Singapore

Mobile Penetration


The chart above is showing the movement of each country’s ARPU and mobile penetration between 2008 and 2015. Each size of the circle presents the approximate relative amount of subscriber.

In 2008, the ARPU of India, Philippines and Vietnam used to be more than USD 5, but continue to show a decreasing trend, and will reach the USD 3-4 level by 2015, following the declining ARPU pattern among the 10 Asian countries.

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Concerning mobile penetration, India will experience a three-fold growth by 2015, and also China, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam will also see a signifi cant increase in mobile subscribers. Mobile carriers in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are focusing on strategies aiming at maintaining their subscribers since the CAGR of mobile subscribers in these countries is 5% or less, making it diffi cult to expand their subscriber bases in the future.

[Figure 0-5] Asia Churn rate vs. Prepaid Penetration in 2011

10%

5%

3%

1%

90%50%10%

Churn Rate"#$%

Prepaid penetration

China

India

Philippines

China

Malaysia

Singapore

Japan

Korea

Taiwan

Vietnam

Indonesia


In terms of churn rate, Vietnam and Indonesia that offer mostly prepaid services have quite a high churn rate that surpasses 10 %, as shown in the graph above. India, Philippines, China, and Malaysia are also depending on prepaid, but their churn rates are within the range of 3% to 6%, due to characteristics in each country and regulatory issues, such as mobile number portability. Singapore has an equal share of both prepaid and postpaid, forming a unique mobile market compared to the other Asian countries.

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© Copyright ROA Holdings. All Rights Reserved. Additional reproduction is strictly prohibited without a written permission from ROA Holdings. For receiving written permission, please write to [email protected]. The opinions and estimates presented in this report are based on information sources that are believed to be reliable and accurate. The contents of this report refl ect the current opinions and are subject to change without notice. For more information on ROA Holdings reports, visit www.roaholdings.com

About ROA Holdings

ROA Holdings is a research and consulting company, specialized in mobile and convergence markets in Asia. ROA Holdings head offi ce is in Tokyo, and branch offi ce is in Seoul. ROA Holdings’ main clients are mobile carriers, handset manufacturers, government agencies and global IT companies.

ROA Japan HQ

4F,Okada Building,1-10-5,Shinjuku, Shinjuku-kuTokyo 160-0022, Japan

ROA Korea Offi ce

Posco Center Building, West Tower 11th Fl.892, Daechi 4-dong, Gangnam-guSeoul, South Korea

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