36
Amory B. LovinsCofounder and Chief Scientist
© 2018 Rocky Mountain Institute. All rights reserved.
Colorado School of Mines01 Oct 2018
RO
CKY MOUNTAIN
INSTIT UTE
Disruptive energy futures
If a problem can’t be solved, enlarge it.
—Dwight David Eisenhower
188.5610 from https://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/July.asp
“I can’t wait to see what
happens when our industries merge.”
Henry Ford and Thomas Edison
The rise and fall of the U.S. whaling industry
Lamp retrofits from whale oil to coal oil gain market traction
Drake strikes oilin Pennsylvania
The rise and fall of the U.S. whaling industry
, become commonconsumption of whale oil + sperm oil in American
market (1,000 US gallons)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
1805 1815 1825 1835 1845 1855 1865 1875 1885 1895
year
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0annual-average real price of whale oil + sperm oil
(2000 $/US gallon)
What if the biggest threats weren’t on the radar?
Inde
x of
U.S
. Prim
ary
Ener
gy
Per D
olla
r of R
eal G
DP
Heresy HappensU.S. energy intensity, 1975–2017p
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050
Government and Industry Forecasts, ~1975
Reinventing Fire, 2011
Lovins, Foreign Affairs, Fall 1976
Actual
Geological reserves are a small part of resources
Schematic comparison of reservesand resources (by NERC for British Geological Survey)
One of many variants of the canonical McKelvey diagram used by the US Geological Survey and worldwide
Orebodies are limited. Energy efficiency isn’t (practically).
A major scientific paper on integrative design
Lovins House, Old Snowmass, Colorado (1983)
US office buildings: 3–4× energy efficiency worth 4× its cost (site energy intensities in kWh/m2-y; US office median ~293)
284➝85 (–70%)2013 retrofit
~277➝173 (–38%) 2010 retrofit
...➝108 (–63%) 2010–11 new
...51 (–83%) 2015 new
Yet all the technologies in the 2015 example existed well before 2005!
...21 (–93%) …and in Germany,
2013 new(office and flat)
Infosys’s 1.5 million m2 of 22k-m2 office blocks (2009–14) in six cities: EPI fell 80%, to 66 kWh/m2-y
with capex 10% to 20% lower than usual, and comfort betterCourtesy of Peter Rumsey PE FASHRAE (Senior Advisor, RMI) and Rohan Parikh (then at Infosys in Bengaluru, now at McBERL)
5x-more-efficient new Indian commercial buildings
“Tunneling through the cost barrier” in peer-reviewed studiesof ambitious European building retrofits
European retrofitted building savings reported 2006–13
(IPCC AR5 WG3 p 703), 3%/yreal discount rate over 30 y. Note that the better cases
show virtually no rise in cost up to >90% savings. Some
cost more, but they needn’t.
Sources: BP, except IEA for enewable heat. Electricity is shown at its heat value, 3.6 MJ/kWh, not at its primary input to an equivalent thermal power plant. Primary-to-final losses are not reflected.
IPCC AR5 WG3 pp 702–704 (2014) reports that high-ambition European new (left) and retrofit (right) buildings show no significant increase in the cost of saved energy up to ≥90% savings. Some examples do show higher costs, but they needn’t: whatever exists is possible.
3-4x Energy Productivity in Buildings, 2x in IndustrySame or better services
Source: Reinventing Fire, RMI, 2011
thin, long, crooked fat, short, straight
Designing to save ~80–90% of pipe and duct friction—equivalent to about half the world’s coal-fired electricity
Typical paybacks ≤1 y retrofit, ≤0 new-buildBut not yet in any textbook, official study, or industry forecast
Retrofitted Low-Friction Piping Layout
Images courtesy of Peter Rumsey, PE,
FASHRAE, Senior Fellow, RMI
return from tower
to chillerreturn from
tower
…or how about this?
• Less space, weight, friction, energy• Fewer parts, smaller pumps and motors, less installation labor• Less O&M, higher uptime
Which of these layouts uses less capital and energy?
Power Plant Power Grid Motor/Drivetrain Pump/Throttle Pipe
-70% -9% -12% -55% -20%
100Energy units
10%Delivered flow
Start saving downstream
Power Plant Power Grid Motor/Drivetrain Pump/Throttle Pipe-70% -9% -12% -55% -20%
100
5 %Delivered flow
50Energy units
Conservatively, integrative design’s savingsare not shown, yet total use falls 25% while light-duty vehicles are completely electrifiedand real GDP rises by 158%. Source: Lovins& RMI, Reinventing Fire (2011), p 204.
buildings
U.S. Electric Productivity Can Quadruple in 2010–50
Hypercar Revolution midsize concept SUV (2000) on-road 67 mpg ( gasoline), 114 mpge (H2) carbon-fiber structure, ≤2-y retail payback
Toyota 1/X carbon-fiber concept PHEV sedan (2007) Prius size, 1/2 fuel use, 1/3 weight
Bright IDEA 1-T 5-m3 aluminum fleet van (2009) ~100-mpge PHEV, 3–12×-efficiency, needs no subsidy
BMW i3 4-seat electric, carbon-fiber passenger cell 2013– mass-production, >150k sold @ $41–45k
111–124 mpg, MY2019 ≥200-mile range (≥300 w/REx)
Reinventing the Wheels
Migrating advanced composites from military and aerospace to automobiles
95% carbon composite, 1/3 lighter, 2/3 cheaper (T100)
BMW MY2013’s ~120–150-kg carbon-fiber-composite passenger cell; mc 1,250 kg2013 BMW i3, http://www.superstreetonline.com/features/news/epcp-1303-bmw-i3-concept-coupe/
German Technology for Electrified Carbon-Fiber Cars
BMW’s sporty, 1250-kg 4x-efficiency i3 was profitable from the first unit, because it: • pays for the carbon fiber by needing fewer batteries (which recharge faster) • saves ~2.5–3.5 kg total for each kg of direct weight saved • needs two-thirds less capital, ~70% less water, ~50% less energy, space, time • requires no conventional body shop or paint shop • provides clean, quiet, superior working conditions • delivers 1.9 L-equivalent/100 km (124 mpge) on US or 1.7 on German test cycle
https://ww
w.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/bm
w-set-m
ake-more-extensive-use-carbon-fibre
!!
Tripled-Efficiency Trucks and Planes
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mbb
l/d
despite 90% more automobility, 118% more trucking, 61% more flyingUS transportation without oil, for $17 per saved barrel
Oil Biofuels Electricity Hydrogen More-Productive Use Efficiency EIA Savings
Source: A.B. Lovins & RMI, Reinventing Fire (2011), Chelsea Green (White River Junction VT), www.rmi.org/reinventingfire. Actual primary transportation petroleum demand from EIA, Monthly Energy Review, April 2018,Tables 2.5 and A3.
*Actual 2017 oil + biofuels
50
100
150
Lum
inou
s ef
ficac
y (lm
/W)
Incandescent lamp1879
200
250
300
1900 1950 20000
Years
1996
LED and PV
50
100
150
Lu
min
ous e
ffic
acy (
lm/W
)
Fluorescent lamp
Incandescent lamp
Halogen lamp
Sodium-vapor lamp
1965
1938
1959
1879
200
250
300
1900 1950 20000
Years
1996
50
100
150
Lu
min
ous e
ffic
acy (
lm/W
)
Fluorescent lamp
Incandescent lamp
Halogen lamp
Sodium-vapor lamp
White LED
1965
1938
1959
1879
200
250
300
1900 1950 20000
Years
1996
Sources: L: courtesy of Dr. Yukio Narukawa (Nichia Corp., Tokushima, Japan) from J. Physics. D: Appl. Phys. 43(2010) 354002, doi:10.1088/0022-3727/43/35/354002, updated by RMI with CREE lm/W data, 2015, www.cree.com/News-and-Events/Cree-News/Press-Releases/2014/March/300LPW-LED-barrier;. R: RMI analysis, at average 2013 USEIA fossil-fueled generation efficiencies and each year’s real fuel costs (no O&M); utility-scale PV: LBNL, Utility-Scale Solar 2013 (Sep 2014), Fig. 18; onshore wind: USDOE, 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report (Aug 2014), “Windbelt” (Interior zone) windfarms’ average PPA; German feed-in tariff (falls with cost to yield ~6%/y real return): Fraunhofer ISE, Cost Perspective, Grid and Market Integration of Renewable Energies, p 6 (Jan 2014); all sources net of subsidies; graph inspired by 2014 “Terrordome” slide, Michael Parker, Bernstein Alliance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Coal-fired steam turbine, fuel cost onlyOil-fired condensing, fuel cost onlyNatural gas CCGT, fuel cost onlyUtility-scale solar PV, total costOnshore windpower, total costGerman PV residential feed-in tariff
Real
bus
bar p
rice
or fu
el c
ost,
2011
US$
/MW
h
(Seattle-like climate)
Netherlands: trade electricity with fellow-customers
Utility revenues
EfficiencyDistributed renewables
Storage (including EVs)
Flexible demand
New financial & business models
Regulatory shifts
Customer preferences
Integrative design
$Utility blockchain
Breakthrough batteries
Resilience imperative
No reactive power
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
TWh/
y
nuclearmodern renewables excl. small hydro (≤50 MW)
natural gas
coal
all renewables (includinghydropower >50 MW)
modern renewables
A B Lovins et al., “Relative deployment rates of renewable and nuclear power: a cautionary tale of two metrics,” El. Res. & Soc. Sci. 38:188–192 (2018), doi:10.1016/j.erss.2018.01.05. Preliminary 2017 data from IEA, “Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017,” 22 Mar 2017, http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GECO2017.pdf,
Worldwide electricity generation by source, 1971–2017p
0
30
60
90
120
150
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Renewable energy’s costs continue to plummetWind and photovoltaics: U.S. generation-weighted-average Power Purchase Agreement prices, by year of signing
U.S. wholesale power price range
Wind PPAs
Utility-scale solar PPAs
Leve
lized
201
4 U
S$/M
Wh
Updated through Jun 2018; solar asterisks: Chile (2.91¢/kWh, Aug 2016) and Mexico (2.7 ¢/kWh, Feb 2017; $1.92¢, Nov 2017); wind asterisks: Morocco (Jan 2016), Mexico 1.7¢ (Nov 2017); Xcel Dec 2017 median levelized solar bids: 36 $/MWh and 30 $/MWh w/ and w/out storage; Xcel wind bids: $21/MWh and $18/MWh w/ and w/out storage
Dec 2017 Xcel Colo.
median bids
***
* lowest unsubsidized
world bids
**
Wind and solar are increasingly competitive with just gas for a CCGT
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Jan-‐08
Jan-‐09
Jan-‐10
Jan-‐11
Jan-‐12
Jan-‐13
Jan-‐14
Jan-‐15
Jan-‐16
Jan-‐17
Jan-‐18
PPA Execution Date
Utility-‐Scale PV (204 PPAs totaling 12,802 MW)
Utility-‐Scale Wind (289 PPAs totaling 30,120 MW)Levelized
PPA
and
Gas Pric
e (201
7 $/MWh) 250 MW
30 MW
100 MW
Levelized 20-‐year EIA gas price projections (converted at 7.5 MMBtu/MWh)
Source: M. Bolinger, LBNL, 15 March 2018
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Jan-‐08
Jan-‐09
Jan-‐10
Jan-‐11
Jan-‐12
Jan-‐13
Jan-‐14
Jan-‐15
Jan-‐16
Jan-‐17
Jan-‐18
PPA Execution Date
Utility-‐Scale PV (204 PPAs totaling 12,802 MW)
Utility-‐Scale Wind (289 PPAs totaling 30,120 MW)Levelized
PPA
and
Gas Pric
e (201
7 $/MWh) 250 MW
30 MW
100 MW
Levelized 20-‐year EIA gas price projections (converted at 7.5 MMBtu/MWh)
Renewables, efficiency, demand flexibility, and storage can provide all grid services traditionally provided by gas-fired power plants
TWh
0
1
2
3
4
Annual energy
CCGT level
MW
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Peak capacity
Solar PV Wind Storage Efficiency Demand flexibility
TWh
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Ramp/flexibility
CCGT level
CCGT level
Source: RMI, The Economics of Clean Energy Portfolios, May 2018
More frontiers in beneficial electrification
9–20 kWt, 200 krpm DHW heat pump>60% of Carnot efficiency
COP=6–15 for △T=13–31C˚
Maravić stay-flat-bottom pots andconductive, smart-control hobs
for 3–4× cooking efficiencyAll-electric, efficient, smart, flexible
Image in same part of St. Louis as Ted Bakewell III’s 1981 project, from http://www.oreillydevelopment.com/communities/affordable_housing/eliot_homes_at_hyde_park
Masonry low-income houses’ integrated gut rehab + superinsulation retrofit, installable by residents or unskilled neighborhood youth, cut heating needs by >90% to $100/y, and cooling to a small window a/c. The $4,700 marginal cost paid back in a few years.
160–200+˚C process heat pumpsemerging; Tesla Gigafactory saved6–12 months and 98.5% of energyin a key process by eliminating gas
Best resources far away, or adequate resources nearby?
US Department of Energy, Enabling Wind Power Nationwide,
May 2015, DOE/EE-1218
