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AMS Public-Private Partnership Forum April 22, 2008

Dr. Chet Koblinsky Director, NOAA Climate Program Office

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climate Services: Responding to Growing Demands

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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report had a Profound Impact

“There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation and some aspects of extremes and of ice.” WG1 SPM

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Record Breaking Season2007

Driest rainy season in Southern California

Utah largest fire in history

Record high and max low temps in Missoula. MT

Phoenix 32 days above 110°

Mountain Pine Bark Beetles

Arctic Sea Ice Cover Shatters all Previous Record

Lows

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The Social and Economic Context for Change……is changing

Increased Vulnerability

• 9 billion people by 2050 (50% increase)

• Increasing urbanization into mega-cities – 4 billion new city dwellers, aging populations, overdevelopment in coastal regions, and regions with limited water supply

• Income inequality growing within nations and between nations

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US Conference of Mayors Policy Statement, August, 2007

National Governors Policy Statement, 2007

Western Governors Association Congressional Testimony, 2007

Lehman Brothers Report on Climate and the Private Sector, 2006

University of Maryland Conference: Climate Information: Responding to User Needs, 2007

NCDC Workshop with Energy, Insurance and Transportation Sectors, 2007

National Intelligence Estimate: Climate and National Security

GAO Report on Climate needs of Federal Resource Managers, 2007

The growing demand for climate information

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National Research Council (2001) Recommendations

1. Promote more effective use of the Nation’s weather and climate observation systems.

2. Improve the capability to serve the climate information needs of the Nation.

3. Interdisciplinary studies and capabilities are needed to address societal needs.

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The Service, at a minimum, shall-

(A) provide comprehensive and authoritative information about the state of the climate and its effects, through observations, monitoring, …;

(B) provide predictions and projections on the future state of the climate …;(C) utilize appropriate research from the United States Global Change Research

Program activities and conduct focused research, as needed, …;(D) utilize assessments from the Global Change Research Program activities and

conduct focused assessments as needed …;(E) assess and strengthen delivery mechanisms for providing climate information

to end users;(F) communicate … on an ongoing basis to decision- and policy- makers, the

private sector, and to the public;(G) coordinate and collaborate … with municipal, state, regional, national and

international agencies and organizations, as appropriate;(H) support the Department of State and international agencies …;(I) … monitor, measure, and verify greenhouse gas levels, dates, and emissions

throughout the global oceans and atmosphere; and(J) issue an annual report that identifies greenhouse emission and trends ….

Congressional ViewS. 2307 - the Global Change Research Improvement Act of 2007

establishes a National Climate Service within NOAA.

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A Strategy for National Climate Services

• The proposed establishment, within NOAA, of a National Climate Service:

• To be the nation's identified, accessible, centralized source of authoritative, regular, and timely climate information

• This includes historical and real-time data, monitoring and assessments, research and modeling, predictions and projections, decision support tools and early warning systems, and the development and delivery of valued climate services

• The proposed establishment of a national climate services partnership across federal agencies:

• To become the mechanism through which the nation’s goals with regard to managing risks associated with climate variability and change are identified, and investments and activities relevant to the production and application of climate information are coordinated

• The focus of the partnership is on ensuring that highly usable, actionable, issue-focused information is produced and evaluated

• The intention is that the activities of the Service and the distributed set of resources throughout the nation (including universities, federal, state and local science and management agencies, and non-governmental organizations) work in close collaboration.