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An Aging Population On Main Street Ken Reinhardt AARP Florida Executive Council The Aging of America
An Aging Population On
Main Street
Ken Reinhardt
AARP Florida Executive Council
The Aging of America
Agenda
- Demographics
- (Mis)conceptions of aging
- Economics of aging
- What do we do about it?
Agenda
- Demographics
- (Mis)conceptions of aging
- Economics of aging
- What do we do about it?
Projections of Population by
Age for the United States:
2015 and 2040 (000)
Age 2015 2040 %
0-64 273,539 297,876 8.9%
65+ 47,830 82,345 72.2%
% 65+ 14.9% 21.7%
http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2014/summarytables.html
Projections of Population by
Age for Florida:
2015 and 2040 (000)
Age 2015 2040 %
0-64 16,080 19,546 21.6%
65+ 3,734 6,706 79.5%
% 65+ 18.8% 25.2%
Bureau of Economic and Business Research
University of Florida, June 2016
Projections of Population by Age
for Broward County:
2015 and 2040
Age 2015 2040 %
0-64 1,544,702 1,628,662 5.4%
65+ 282,665 529,418 87.3%
% 65+ 15.5% 24.5%
Bureau of Economic and Business Research
University of Florida, June 2016
Key Drivers of our aging population
Baby Boomers (b. 1946 – 1964)
Changes in Longevity
Declining Fertility
U.S. Life Expectancy At Birth
Year Age1900 47.31930 59.71960 69.71997 76.52007 77.92010 78.32030 802040 85
Survival Function
2000
2050
1950
https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Body.html
COMPLETED FERTILITY FOR WOMEN
40 - 44 YEARS OLD
Year % Childless Avg. # of Children % Higher Order Births*
1976 10.2 3.1 59
2014 15.3 1.9 28
*Three or more Children
Agenda
- Demographics
- (Mis)conceptions of aging
- Economics of aging
- What do we do about it?
The seniors are coming!
The seniors are coming!
Eeeaahhh!
Edvard Munch
“The scream”
The seniors are coming!
The seniors are coming!
Eeeaahhh!
Edvard Munch
“The scream”
Common Perceptions of Aging
- Decline
- Dependence
- Burden on society
- Frail
- Loss
- Sickness/disease
- “Final chapter”
There’s much more to the story…
We are
• Dependent
• Frail
• Independent
• Fit
• Elite athletes
Agenda
- Demographics
- (Mis)conceptions of aging
- Economics of aging
- What do we do about it?
$60 billion to Florida in SS payments
738,000 jobs created
$5.5 billion in state and local taxes
$4.36 billion to Florida in veterans benefits
Taxes! Taxes! Taxes!
© iStock/IPGGutenbergUKLtd
© iStock/CEFutcher
Spend! Spend! Spend!
• $7.1 trillion – overall economic activity of 50+
• 50+ Americans would be the world’s 3rd largest economy
• Boomers raised in consumer culture
• Spend 28% more on cars than <50
© AARP
© AARP
More Than Money
• 154 million hours of
volunteering
• $3.5 billion to charity
• 387,000 live with their
grandchildren
• 40% of those are primary
caregiver©iStock/michaeljung
Boomers Defined
• More are working past 65
• Watch significantly more
TV than Millennials.
• More than half are on
• Major consumers of
Apple’s products© AARP
James H. Johnson, Jr.
Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise
Kenan-Flagler Business School
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
© iStock/videodet
Final chapter
Next chapter
Bring it on!
Agenda
- Demographics
- (Mis)conceptions of aging
- Economics of aging
- What do we do about it?
Housing
Aging in place - 90% want to stay put
Suitability
Universal design*
HomeFit
Group homes
Near local destinations*
Smaller*
Mixed use*
Affordable*
For those moving into the neighborhood*
For existing residents*
Gentrification*
*Applicable to all ages
Transportation
- We will outlive our ability to drive by 8 years
- Need for public transportation*
- Safety – Complete Streets*
- Uber, Lyft, autonomous vehicles*
*Applicable to all ages
Engagement
Serious health risks of loneliness/isolation- Research has equated chronic isolation with smoking 15
cigarettes a day.
- Leads to - depression
- poor nutrition
- high blood pressure
- onset of disabilities
- higher use of medications
- early entry into ALFs, nursing homes
http://www.campaigntoendloneliness.org/threat-to-health/
Engagement
Antidotes
Social inclusion
Volunteering
Civic engagement
Continuing education
Communication/information
Intergenerational opportunities
Business opportunities
- “Seniors” typically ignored
- Wake up call
Companies that do a great job of making
products for Boomers will take great pains
not to make products for Boomers.
© AARP Florida
World Health Organization’s
Age-Friendly Network
- 302 cities in 33 countries (118m people)
- 108 cities in U. S. (52m people)
- 7 cities in Florida
- Sarasota County (2/15)
- Tallahassee (6/15)
- Winter Haven (10/15)
- Cutlet Bay (3/16)
- Hallandale Beach (5/16)
- St Petersburg (6/16)
- Pinecrest (7/16)
- Hollywood (pending)
- Pembroke Pines (pending)
© AARP Florida
In summary…
- We’re experiencing a game-changing, long-term
demographic shift
- Older adults are valuable resources who create
substantial economic activity
- They don’t want to sit on the bench – they want to
play!
- The public and private sectors have huge
opportunities available to them
© AARP Florida
And remember…
What’s good for an 80 year old is good for
an 8 year old (and everyone in between!)
“Age is mind over matter – if you don’t mind,
it doesn’t matter!”- Mark Twain
Thank you
Ken Reinhardt
AARP Florida Executive Council member
954-344-3787
aarp.org
Elderly as a Percent of Total Population
Country 2000 2040
United States 16.3 21.7
Australia 16.6 30.1
Canada 17.0 33.3
United Kingdom 20.8 33.9
France 20.6 35.0
Netherlands 18.5 36.6
Belgium 22.2 36.1
Germany 23.5 37.4
Sweden 22.8 37.5
Japan 23.9 44.7
Spain 22.0 45.5
Italy 24.4 46.2
Elderly As % Of Total Population
(60+/80+)
Country 2015 2050
US 20.7/3.8 27.9/8.3
Italy 28.6/6.8 40.7/15.6
Japan 33.1/7.8 42.5/15.1
Spain 24.4/5.9 41.4/14.0
World 12.3/1.7 21.5/4.5
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision. New York: United Nations.
Centenarians in the U.S.
1950 2010 2050
2,300 79,000 601,000
• Denmark --“Do it for Denmark”—10% of Danish children are conceived on vacations
• France—paid family leave for parents & preschool for three years • Japan—funding
matchmaking events
• South Korea—trying to reduce price of weddings to encourage marriage
• A region in Russia encouraged citizens to “bear a patriot” in June 2012, on Russia
Day, offering money, refrigerators, and even cars.
• Singapore encouraged baby making on its national holiday.
• China abandons its one child policy
Responses to Declining Demographics
